Jump to content

grim22

The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

By grim22, in Numbers and Data

Recommended Posts

Recommended

Posted by Porthos,

Really depends on what you're looking for, but usually the most important takeaway for just a casual glance is the comp.  More on that in a bit.   But even that is highly dependent on a movie being either in a similar genre or having a similar pre-sale pattern as folks will buy tickets at different times during a pre-sale window thanks to a very long list of factors.   Add in that movies will have different promotional schedules during their pre-sales (review embargoes, TV ca
Recommended by Cap
  • Like

7 reactions

Go to this post
Recommended

Posted by Cap,

MODERATION:   Hi, everyone. It’s 6 o’clock in the morning. I have not gone to bed yet. And I am tired. And I know it’s going to be a very long weekend. Here is the new rule.   This thread is for numbers and data. Please post your theater updates. Please post your comparable data. And please talk about that comparable data here.    If you wish to do a deep dive on why you think that data might or might not suck, then take it to the respective thread of the movie in ques
Recommended by Cap
  • Thanks
  • Like

14 reactions

Go to this post




grim22 Global Phenomenon

grim22

Posted
  • Author
Posted

There are no DC movie comps because all the prior DC movies were not on sale yet with 3 weeks to go for release. Can give better comps next week.

 

The only CBM in the past year and a bit which went on sale at about the same time before release which we have comps for is Spider-Man Homecoming, that was at 270k 17 days before release. That's literally the only one which has a similar sales timeline which we have data for. Most Marvel movies seem to go on sale very early, Thor 3 went on sale over 2 months before release for some reason and was at 540k with 3 weeks to go.

 

Presales follow a set pattern normally, first 2-3 days are big, then things level off and go at a few tickets a day till release week. Monday of release week is when everything starts matching up again.

  • Like 4
  • Thanks 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites
grim22 Global Phenomenon

grim22

Posted
  • Author
Posted
1 hour ago, Deep Wang said:

ME - 4k

SV - 99k

 

MPR - 194k

 

AM - 310k

BB - 35k

No exact point in time comps but here are the closest ones

TF5 was 180k with 12 days to release 

Wonder Woman was 267k with 17 days to release

BATB was 1.4M so not exactly relevant as a comp

Spiderman Homecoming was 270k with 17 days to go 

Mortal Engines is a goner 

  • Like 6
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites


Lothar Sleeper Hit

Lothar

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, grim22 said:

No exact point in time comps but here are the closest ones

TF5 was 180k with 12 days to release 

Wonder Woman was 267k with 17 days to release

BATB was 1.4M so not exactly relevant as a comp

Spiderman Homecoming was 270k with 17 days to go 

Mortal Engines is a goner 

Can we say AQ is going to hit 120M ? 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
grim22 Global Phenomenon

grim22

Posted
  • Author
Posted
Just now, Lothar said:

Can we say AQ is going to hit 120M ? 

No :thinking:

 

It will depend on the final few days of sales which are influenced by word of mouth and reviews. For example, Justice League entered the final week of sales way ahead of almost all other CBMs last year. CBMs see a big jump on the last 2 days of presales, JL didn't. So final presales tell us a lot more about previews and OD. After that, it's up to the movie itself.

  • Like 2
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites


Deep Wang Global Phenomenon

Deep Wang

Posted
Posted (edited)
13 minutes ago, Lothar said:

Can we say AQ is going to hit 120M ? 

 

10 minutes ago, grim22 said:

No :thinking:

 

It will depend on the final few days of sales which are influenced by word of mouth and reviews. For example, Justice League entered the final week of sales way ahead of almost all other CBMs last year. CBMs see a big jump on the last 2 days of presales, JL didn't. So final presales tell us a lot more about previews and OD. After that, it's up to the movie itself.

Also because it's Christmas holiday.

 

 Presales are more spread out over the course of the rest of the month as opposed to normal releases, so it skews results. They are still predominately opening weekend for sure, but where a big movie like IW might have had 95% of it's presales for opening weekend, this will have more like 75-85% ow, and then the rest over the next two weeks, especially Christmas Day.

Edited by Deep Wang
  • Like 11
  • Thanks 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites




Old Spice Sleeper Hit

Old Spice

Posted
Posted

Another question from a newbie for anyone in the know. Against my better instincts I watched Grace Randolph's video yesterday about the early tracking numbers, and she made the peculiar claim that WB was "working against itself" by holding the advance AQ showings on the 15th, because they "wouldn't be counted in the film's box office." Now, that doesn't make sense to me on any level, but just to confirm, the shows on the 15th will be bundled into the preview night number, correct? Thanks in advance.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Eric Loves Rey Global Phenomenon

Eric Loves Rey

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, A Star is Orm said:

Another question from a newbie for anyone in the know. Against my better instincts I watched Grace Randolph's video yesterday about the early tracking numbers, and she made the peculiar claim that WB was "working against itself" by holding the advance AQ showings on the 15th, because they "wouldn't be counted in the film's box office." Now, that doesn't make sense to me on any level, but just to confirm, the shows on the 15th will be bundled into the preview night number, correct? Thanks in advance.

The Amazon preview numbers will count for the total, but likely not for the opening weekend. Just as its own separate thing

 

Jumanji and Hotel Transylvania 3's BOM pages list their Amazon previews on a separate day.

Link to comment
Share on other sites




Deep Wang Global Phenomenon

Deep Wang

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, CoolEric258 said:

The Amazon preview numbers will count for the total, but likely not for the opening weekend. Just as its own separate thing

 

Jumanji and Hotel Transylvania 3's BOM pages list their Amazon previews on a separate day.

There you go, thank you.  

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites












Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
Go to topic listing

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.


×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

By using this site, you agree to our Terms of Use and Guidelines. Feel free to read our Privacy Policy as well.

  I accept