The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Eric Wilson]

The Friday-Tuesday haul for Aquaman is near identical to National Treasure 2 (65M), which had the exact same calendar configuration. That's great

 

That also seems good for Poppins, as it'll likely have better reception than Into the Woods and it won't be super frontloaded like Les Miz. The 400M dream still lives.

[ThomasNicole]

I think both Aquaman and MPR will open higher than today tracking... still 3 weeks to go 

 

Tracking for MPR especially is already really promissing, but i think it will past $ 80M

[Lothar]

15 minutes ago, Valonqar said:

what what? didn't Aquaman track for 100M OW just a day ago? So what is this 60-70M 5 day? 

Don't worry it's initial tracking like back in the days they were saying Wonder Woman to open around 65M.

There are more than 3 weeks from here to Aquaman. 

[grim22]

Deadline just updated with numbers which make next to zero sense

 

Quote

Aquaman in its five-day run from Friday to Christmas Tuesday is expected to bring in around $80M, with $65M over the three-day.

65M over the 3 day will lead to much higher than 80 over 5.

[Valonqar]

8 minutes ago, Lothar said:

Don't worry it's initial tracking like back in the days they were saying Wonder Woman to open around 65M.

There are more than 3 weeks from here to Aquaman. 

I see. Thanks! 

 

@grim22 Forget it, Jack. It's Deadline.

[grim22]

 

[Lothar]

4 minutes ago, grim22 said:

 

@grim22 You are tracking movies since long. Do you think AQ can open to 100 OW if reviews are like Wonder Woman ?

[grim22]

2 minutes ago, Lothar said:

@grim22 You are tracking movies since long. Do you think AQ can open to 100 OW if reviews are like Wonder Woman ?

I don't think it can hit 100M even with Wonder Woman level reviews even though I would love to see it happen. Mainly because of screen space - there are 5 wide releases that weekend. Aquaman will get IMAX, one 2D and one 3D screen where available and most likely PLF on sharing basis. Poppins will get 2 2D screens and PLF on sharing. Bumblebee probably one 2D and one 3D. The other 2 releases will get a screen each. And then you have semi wide releases like Zero which will require a screen and Spideverse, Mortal Engines and The Mule will still be on a few screens. So even if theaters clear out ALL the pre-Dec 14 movies, it can't get the screen space needed to stretch to 100M. That is before we get to the demographics discussion.

 

I can see it push the tracking up for sure. 100M over the 5 day stretch is definitely possible if it is reviewed well. And TBH, getting good reviews and audience feedback is way more important for it than hitting an arbitrary mark over OW.

[Napoleon]

43 minutes ago, grim22 said:

Deadline just updated with numbers which make next to zero sense

 

65M over the 3 day will lead to much higher than 80 over 5.

They changed it again from 80 to 100M now

[Eric Wilson]

41 minutes ago, grim22 said:

Deadline just updated with numbers which make next to zero sense

 

65M over the 3 day will lead to much higher than 80 over 5.

Got updated yet again. Guess they listened to ya

 

Quote

Aquaman in its five-day run from Friday to Christmas Tuesday is expected to bring in around $100M, with $65M over the three-day.

 

[MaxAggressor]

https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/heat-vision/aquaman-box-office-targets-heroic-pre-christmas-debut-65m-1164604?fbclid=IwAR2oEhEH08iDqjdKgglQUHw5KTP20bIaHm8YYqKTdBJDWdaPKx1TVEIBV4k

 

James Wan's Aquaman, starring Jason Momoa in the titular role, is tracking for a strong U.S. debut of $65 million-plus at the pre-Christmas box office, according to insiders at Warner Bros.

 

If it indeed earns $65 million in its first weekend — one of the top domestic debuts for that time of year — Aquaman should swim to north of $85 million by the close of Christmas Day. One major tracking service shows it even approaching $100 million.

 

Disney's Mary Poppins Returns, for example, is debuting on Nov. 19, a Wednesday. The movie, starring Emily Blunt and Lin-Manuel Miranda, is likewise looking like a Christmas winner. Tracking suggests it could pull in $35 million to $40 million in its first five days, and an impressive $55 million to $60 million through Dec. 25.

 

Paramount's Bumblebee is tracking for a solid weekend start of $25 million to $30 million and a five-day launch of $35 million to $40 million. The spinoff stars Hailee Steinfeld.

[Stewart]

11 minutes ago, MaxAggressor said:

...

Disney's Mary Poppins Returns, for example, is debuting on Nov. 19, a Wednesday. The movie, starring Emily Blunt and Lin-Manuel Miranda, is likewise looking like a Christmas winner. Tracking suggests it could pull in $35 million to $40 million in its first five days, and an impressive $55 million to $60 million through Dec. 25.

...

Is it just me or does this feel very low? I thought BOP was predicting $40m just fo 3-day?

[Barnack]

1 hour ago, grim22 said:

 

That wasn't tracking. That was tracking analysts saying it could do 100M as opposed to actual tracking numbers. Actual tracking numbers just came in today, all movies hit tracking 3 weeks before release and studios get updated tracking Mondays and Thursday.

 

Back in the day NGR updated studios 3 time a weeks (Sun-Wed-Thursday), it changed ? (Started 3 weeks before also)

[CaptainJackSparrow]

That’s good tracking for Bumblebee, correct? 40 mil five day opening should lead to what total?

[Eric Wilson]

2 minutes ago, CaptainJackSparrow said:

That’s good tracking for Bumblebee, correct? 40 mil five day opening should lead to what total?

If it has Jack Reacher legs: 138.3M

 

If it has National Treasure 2 legs: 134.4M

 

Both totals are above The Last Knight

[WrathOfHan]

4 minutes ago, CaptainJackSparrow said:

That’s good tracking for Bumblebee, correct? 40 mil five day opening should lead to what total?

It'll be close to The Last Knight at minimum. If WOM is strong, January legs could get it up to 150-160M

[ThomasNicole]

9 minutes ago, CaptainJackSparrow said:

That’s good tracking for Bumblebee, correct? 40 mil five day opening should lead to what total?

$ 150-160M if it’s well received

[ThomasNicole]

25 minutes ago, feasby007 said:

Is it just me or does this feel very low? I thought BOP was predicting $40m just fo 3-day?

It is low, deadline $ 70-80M for 7-day seems more accurate. And anyway, it’s early and a family movie so probably will open way above tracking.

[ThomasNicole]

I’m confident ME will be the only bomb this christmas.

 

Right now i’m expecting:

Aquaman and MPR both around $ 400M

Spider with $ 220M

Bumblebee with $ + 150M

 

Apparently all of them will have good receptions so legs shouldn’t be a problem.

[TheDarkKnightOfSteel]

MR 370

AQ 290

BB 160