The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[TwoMisfits]

On 11/7/2018 at 1:54 AM, TalismanRing said:

Fandango App	Monday	Tues	Wed	Thursday
A Wrinke In Time		4,864		15,601
*4pm-12am
Nov 16th
Fantastic Beasts 2	2,854	2,577
Widows	29	31
Instant Family	23	37
Nov 21st
Creed II	218	220
Ralph 2	1,449	680

As an example of not worrying yet for The Mule and Mortal Engines, look at Widows and Instant Family 10 days out...presales are tiny 10 days out for anything that isn't a franchise...

 

They opened to $14M and $12M, respectively...and ME is pacing higher on these meaningless presale days than they did...

Edited December 5, 2018 by TwoMisfits

[Manny G]

9 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

As an example of not worrying yet for The Mule and Mortal Engines, look at Widows and Instant Family 10 days out...presales are tiny 10 days out for anything that isn't a franchise...

 

They opened to $14M and $12M, respectively...and ME is pacing higher on these meaningless presale days than they did...

Moronic question,  but what exactly do these numbers represent? Number of tickets ? Number of screens ? Other?

[TwoMisfits]

9 minutes ago, Manny G said:

Moronic question,  but what exactly do these numbers represent? Number of tickets ? Number of screens ? Other?

Number of tickets sold that day on Fandango...you can multiply by $10 to get a rough average of Fandango sales for the day per movie...

[Manny G]

1 hour ago, TwoMisfits said:

Number of tickets sold that day on Fandango...you can multiply by $10 to get a rough average of Fandango sales for the day per movie...

Thanks I feel less dumb.

[MrGamer]

6 hours ago, CoolEric258 said:

Movie/Day	Monday	Tuesday
Mortal Engines	81	71
The Mule	7	18
Spider-Verse	722	757
Mary Poppins	913	867
Aquaman	1263	1101
Bumblebee	420	450

Mule numbers are going up, @That One Guy. $100m still in play.

[YM!]

8 hours ago, TwoMisfits said:

As an example of not worrying yet for The Mule and Mortal Engines, look at Widows and Instant Family 10 days out...presales are tiny 10 days out for anything that isn't a franchise...

 

They opened to $14M and $12M, respectively...and ME is pacing higher on these meaningless presale days than they did...

ME plays for different demographics though. 

[TwoMisfits]

1 hour ago, YourMother the Edgelord said:

ME plays for different demographics though. 

Yes, but when no theaters even have presales yet, you aren't gonna presell it...this is not a "open weeks ahead for presales" movie...

 

It's the "premier" sci-fi/fantasy spectacle movie pushed to those buffs for the season - it could end up in its own lane for the holiday b/c nothing else is like it...so, presales in the teens per day tell us nothing except it's not on sale yet...next Monday (and really Tuesday) will be its big hurdle where it better start pre-selling (ie - when theaters come out with their "sets")...

Edited December 6, 2018 by TwoMisfits

[filmlover]

53 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

Yes, but when no theaters even have presales yet, you aren't gonna presell it...this is not a "open weeks ahead for presales" movie...

 

It's the "premier" sci-fi/fantasy spectacle movie pushed to those buffs for the season - it could end up in its own lane for the holiday b/c nothing else is like it...so, presales in the teens per day tell us nothing except it's not on sale yet...next Monday (and really Tuesday) will be its big hurdle where it better start pre-selling (ie - when theaters come out with their "sets")...

Aquaman is the movie that’s gonna appeal most to the sci-fi/action crowd this season and Spider-Man and Bumblebee will be the alternatives before Mortal Engines is. I really have no idea why Universal kept it for a Christmas opening. Then again, given the weak reviews and mostly nonexistent marketing push, they likely took the red pen out on it a while ago and don’t care.

[Eric the Ape]

3 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Aquaman is the movie that’s gonna appeal most to the sci-fi/action crowd this season and Spider-Man and Bumblebee will be the alternatives before Mortal Engines is. I really have no idea why Universal kept it for a Christmas opening. Then again, given the weak reviews and mostly nonexistent marketing push, they likely took the red pen out on it a while ago and don’t care.

It was likely going to flop anywhere, but in December, it can at least benefit from Christmas legs and get a little bit more than what it would get in any other month. (Yes I know it's getting the short end of the stick when it comes to IMAX and PLFs)

[filmlover]

2 minutes ago, CoolEric258 said:

It was likely going to flop anywhere, but in December, it can at least benefit from Christmas legs and get a little bit more than what it would get in any other month. (Yes I know it's getting the short end of the stick when it comes to IMAX and PLFs)

My theater is booking it for one of the mid-sized auditoriums that weekend and the chances of them adding another screen is zilch so it’s definitely gonna be banished to the smallest auditoriums by Christmas Day, possibly even sharing with an older movie if it flops hard enough.

[Eric the Ape]

https://deadline.com/2018/12/golden-globes-box-office-boost-the-favourite-mary-queen-of-scots-vox-lux-ben-is-back-1202514515/

 

Ralph: 15.3-16.6

Grinch: 10.7-11.6

Creed: 10-10.8

 

Mary Queen of Scots and Ben is Back have 4 theaters this weekend and Vox Lux will get 6. . The Favourite will be in 93 theaters this weekend, The Wife will expand to 541, and Green Book will go to 1,165. Can You Ever Forgive Me will depend on Globe noms apparently. Weird at how little Green Book is expanding.

[KP1025]

2 hours ago, CoolEric258 said:

https://deadline.com/2018/12/golden-globes-box-office-boost-the-favourite-mary-queen-of-scots-vox-lux-ben-is-back-1202514515/

 

Ralph: 15.3-16.6

Grinch: 10.7-11.6

Creed: 10-10.8

 

Mary Queen of Scots and Ben is Back have 4 theaters this weekend and Vox Lux will get 6. . The Favourite will be in 93 theaters this weekend, The Wife will expand to 541, and Green Book will go to 1,165. Can You Ever Forgive Me will depend on Globe noms apparently. Weird at how little Green Book is expanding.

 

That Grinch number looks more realistic to me. I know it was underestimated by quite a bit last weekend, but the other trades are predicting as high as $15 million for it this weekend. I can't see that happening when its daily drops have followed Ralph 2 very closely.

[a2k]

I feel Grinch will make it to 12m, 33% drop, this weekend. That will take the cume to 220m+ (including 2m for Wed and Thu combined). 250-260m dom is well on.

 

---

 

Probably 37-38% drop for WIR2 for ~16m.

 

Coco and Moana both were 18.5m in the 3rd frame. But Coco added 74m more after the 3rd weekend while Moana added 104m more.

 

If WIR2 has a 16m weekend for 140m+ cume (after filling in Wed and Thu), then adding 90m more for 230m dom requires Moana-like legs 3rd weekend onward. 220m is a more realistic end-goal.

 

---

 

Interestingly, Moana's legs give Grinch 285-290m dom (assuming ~12m weekend) while Coco's will give it nearly 270m. But it should loose theatres as comp increases in December preventing it from reaching those heights.

Edited December 6, 2018 by a2k

[TwoMisfits]

Grinch is gonna have sky high holds til Dec 25...and then drop off a cliff...I'd expect a 2500 theater drop between Dec 25 and Dec 28 b/c people will be done watching the Christmas movies (like happened to The Star, at smaller numbers and faster theater drops, last year)...

 

[filmlover]

9 hours ago, CoolEric258 said:

Mary Queen of Scots and Ben is Back have 4 theaters this weekend and Vox Lux will get 6.

Good luck to all three of these movies which were likely hoping for some Golden Globes love and just got completely shut out.

[Eric the Ape]

Movie/Day	Monday	Tuesday	Wednesday
Mortal Engines	81	71	116
The Mule	7	18	18
Spider-Verse	722	757	1365
Mary Poppins	913	867	919
Aquaman	1263	1101	1153
Bumblebee	420	450	474
Second Act	0	2	1
Marwen	0	0	1

 

 

The Spider-Verse jump is being inflated by this weekend's preview screenings, but it's still doing very well.

 

I plan to extrapolate the Bumblebee numbers later and see how much it's being inflated by the previews this Saturday. It seems like a good chunk of Bumblebee's tickets are from these early screenings just through a quick scan.

[The Fast and the Furiosa]

5 minutes ago, CoolEric258 said:

Movie/Day	Monday	Tuesday	Wednesday
Mortal Engines	81	71	116
The Mule	7	18	18
Spider-Verse	722	757	1365
Mary Poppins	913	867	919
Aquaman	1263	1101	1153
Bumblebee	420	450	474
Second Act	0	2	1
Marwen	0	0	1

 

 

The Spider-Verse jump is being inflated by this weekend's preview screenings, but it's still doing very well.

 

I plan to extrapolate the Bumblebee numbers later and see how much it's being inflated by the previews this Saturday. It seems like a good chunk of Bumblebee's tickets are from these early screenings just through a quick scan.

The early preview screenings for Spiderverse are only around 600 total for Fandango, so it can’t be inflated THAT much 

Edited December 6, 2018 by The Fast and the Furiosa

[MrGlass2]

1 hour ago, CoolEric258 said:

 

I plan to extrapolate the Bumblebee numbers later and see how much it's being inflated by the previews this Saturday. It seems like a good chunk of Bumblebee's tickets are from these early screenings just through a quick scan.

Thanks as always for your numbers, but you are not doing Deadpool 2.13?

[filmlover]

14 minutes ago, MrGlass2 said:

Thanks as always for your numbers, but you are not doing Deadpool 2.13?

My theater has showtimes up but aren’t actually selling tickets yet which is probably the case everywhere.

[MrGlass2]

2 minutes ago, filmlover said:

My theater has showtimes up but aren’t actually selling tickets yet which is probably the case everywhere.

It is showing up on Fandango with significant numbers, eg:

2018-12-05 22:00:00	23	Once Upon a Deadpool