The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[lorddemaxus]

1 hour ago, Napoleon said:

Never Forget

 

 

This the 100th time you have said that and I don't know how many times people have to tell you that a Star Wars film beating Black Panther presales doesn't mean shit. Star Wars films are way more presales heavy. 

[SchumacherFTW]

3 hours ago, Deep Wang said:

@SchumacherFTW and @chasmmi should be proud of me!

We'll make a Formula 1 fan out of you yet. 

[Hades]

3 hours ago, Napoleon said:

Never Forget

 

 

[ThomasNicole]

Every time someone talk about how big CM presales are, someone put Solo in the conversation.

 

I don’t think if people just like to be annoying in purpose, but anyway, let’s say it AGAIN... Star Wars are the most presales heavy franchise by far and Solo tickets went on sale really close to release date, so comparing with CM is nonsense.

[john2000]

5 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

Every time someone talk about how big CM presales are, someone put Solo in the conversation.

 

I don’t think if people just like to be annoying in purpose, but anyway, let’s say it AGAIN... Star Wars are the most presales heavy franchise by far and Solo tickets went on sale really close to release date, so comparing with CM is nonsense.

its not only that captain marvel continues to sell well and it has even go up while it could become a situation like solo i just cant see that happening as there is no evidence to suggest that as of now

[FlashMaster659]

CM DOM predict increased to $450M

 

https://pro.boxoffice.com/long-range-tracking-breakthrough-penguins-the-curse-of-la-llorona/

[Porthos]

I know the person who made the DP2 comment was joking, but I'd like to make a couple of serious comments about it anyway.

 

First off, it simply is flat out easier for a film that had 'only' sold around 18% of its available seats to outsell a film that has already sold 34% of its available seats on any given day.

 

Why?  Because the seats available for the 18% one are usually more desirable than other in time and place.  To use my 'low hanging fruit' analogy, DP2 had a lot more low hanging fruit available.

 

Secondly, DP2 was playing in more theaters locally that CM is. Thus it had more opportunity for that low hanging fruit to be plucked.

 

I don't know why for certain (though I have some strong hunches), but sometimes films aren't booked at what I call 'competing theaters' locally where there are different theaters chains within a close proximity of each other.  I suspect it's about trying to maximize revenue where one film will try maximize it by playing everywhere it can, where another film will try to maximize revenue by getting more of a share out of a theater by giving something close to exclusivity within an area.  But that's only a guess.

 

But, mostly... DP2 was something like a mini-BP locally in that it took off like a rocket as it got closer and closer to release.  IMO, the two main differences with DP2 and BP were the lack of 3D tickets for DP2 and that it started so far behind BP that even with its stratospheric climb, it couldn't catch up nationally.

 

In fact, it climbed so fast locally and had more showings locally than BP did (169 v 136 at final count) that DP2 actually managed to sell 29 more tickets at final count locally than BP did.

 

But that only tells part of the tape, as BP beat DP2 like a red headed stepchild when it comes to percentage of seats sold: 71% to 49%.

 

====

 

Of course, DP2 was not exactly a slouch at 18.6m for its Opening Night.  Probably shouldn't forget that, either.

 

 

Edited February 22, 2019 by Porthos

[Porthos]

7 hours ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

You shared it yourself, no? In 24 hours AM & TW was #4 for MCU.

 

7 hours ago, Premium George said:

 He asked about same time before release not first 24 hours.

Not to pick a nit, but it was #5 for Marvel movies after 24 hours according to that tweet, not #4.  So even there, Napoleon misremembered his info.

 

====

 

I've been biting my tongue about that this all day yesterday, but I couldn't hold it in any longer. 

[Napoleon]

32 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

Every time someone talk about how big CM presales are, someone put Solo in the conversation.

 

I don’t think if people just like to be annoying in purpose, but anyway, let’s say it AGAIN... Star Wars are the most presales heavy franchise by far and Solo tickets went on sale really close to release date, so comparing with CM is nonsense.

But the MCU seems to be turning very presales-heavy too.

 

4 of their 5 best selling movies in presales were their last 4 releases. And that includes Ant-Man and the Wasp, which ended up being one of Marvel's lowest openings.

[Porthos]

Just now, Napoleon said:

But the MCU seems to be turning very presales-heavy too.

 

4 of their 5 best selling movies in presales were their last 4 releases. And that includes Ant-Man and the Wasp, which ended up being one of Marvel's lowest openings.

Again, Ant-Man and the Wasp was NOT one of their best selling movies in pre-sales.

 

Where are you getting this idea that it was?

[ThomasNicole]

6 minutes ago, Napoleon said:

But the MCU seems to be turning very presales-heavy too.

 

4 of their 5 best selling movies in presales were their last 4 releases. And that includes Ant-Man and the Wasp, which ended up being one of Marvel's lowest openings.

Yes, MCU is presales-heavy, but still far , far away than SW. SW is never a good comparison for anything when we’re talking about pre sales. 

 

Solo presales are good for standard expectations, but are terrible compared to TFA / R1 and TLJ.

 

And Ant Man & The Wasp was not on the best selling presales MCU movies. The movie was #4 just on the first 24 hours (and just because the presales for this movie specifically start really close to the release date, like 16 days before.

[Porthos]

5 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

The movie was #4 just on the first 24 hours

*cough*

 

5 not 4.

 

*cough*

 

===

Quote

(and just because the presales for this movie specifically start really close to the release date, like 16 days before.

This is also an exceptionally good, if subtle,  point.  AM&tW had 18 days of pre-sales while BP had 30, IW had 41, and CM had a whopping 58.

 

People are simply more likely to buy a ticket for something two-and-a-half weeks away than something two months away.  Of course 'more likely' doesn't mean all that much, but it is absolutely a factor to consider when looking at AM&tW being fifth after 24 hours of pre-sales for Marvel movies.

 

And it also doesn't mean all that much if a film doesn't sustain a fast start.  While I only have tracking data for AM&tW three days out, given that it was at 20% of seats sold at three days from premiere, imma gonna guess it didn't keep up that pace for long.

[Legion Again]

Your quote does show AM&TW 24 hr presales were #4, not #5, @Porthos. It’s ranked 5 now because of CM, which didn’t exist then.     

 

Not that I think this is important at all, just want to be fair.

Edited February 22, 2019 by Thanos Legion

[Porthos]

5 minutes ago, Thanos Legion said:

Your quote does show AM&TW 24 hr presales were #4, not #5, @Porthos. It’s ranked 5 now because of CM, which didn’t exist then.     

 

Not that I think this is important at all, just want to be fair.

Fair enuf, but Napoleon was counting Captain Marvel as one of the five when talking about recent Marvel films (as was the infographic that Fandango tweeted) which is the context my complaint was about.

[Porthos]

As expected, at least by myself, Captain Marvel has fallen out of the Top Five over at MT.com:

 

2019-02-22 22:00:42.958105 UTC
1	53%	How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World
2	8.1%	The LEGO Movie 2: The Second Part
3	4.6%	Alita: Battle Angel
4	3.8%	Isn't It Romantic
5	3.7%	Fighting with My Family

 

It was still at slot #6 according to the 24 hour rolling tracker for Fandango, FWIW.  It'll probably slip a bit as the weekend goes on but it's still doing very respectable, IMO.

 

[Deep Wang]

3 minutes ago, Porthos said:

As expected, at least by myself, Captain Marvel has fallen out of the Top Five over at MT.com:

 

2019-02-22 22:00:42.958105 UTC
1	53%	How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World
2	8.1%	The LEGO Movie 2: The Second Part
3	4.6%	Alita: Battle Angel
4	3.8%	Isn't It Romantic
5	3.7%	Fighting with My Family

 

It was still at slot #6 according to the 24 hour rolling tracker for Fandango, FWIW.  It'll probably slip a bit as the weekend goes on but it's still doing very respectable, IMO.

 

lol, I didn't expect it to stay up there during the weekend.  At least not this one.  

[Legion Again]

Yeah, was never going to be there this Fri/Sat/Sun. Would be nifty to see it back Mon, after which it could conceivably never stay quite consistently.

[Deep Wang]

I always wanted someone to track the first appearance of a movie on MT with it's opening weekend.  

 

In some cases it can't be very first appearance like CM since it was so long ago, but maybe first appearance without dropping out of the top until release?

[john2000]

5 minutes ago, Deep Wang said:

I always wanted someone to track the first appearance of a movie on MT with it's opening weekend.  

 

In some cases it can't be very first appearance like CM since it was so long ago, but maybe first appearance without dropping out of the top until release?

sorry but what is MT ? 

[Porthos]

23 minutes ago, john2000 said:

sorry but what is MT ? 

MovieTickets.com.

 

They have a rolling 24 hour list of the Top Five Movies sold on their platform.  Used to be on their front page, but it seems to have disappeared from easy view.  akvalley's scraper/tracker is still picking it up though. 👍

Edited February 22, 2019 by Porthos