The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Deep Wang]

2 minutes ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

Just a question, if you don't mind. The numbers you share are presale for some region or some ticketing portal or all pre-sales for North America.

 

 

It's all the presales to date for one Major Theater Chain(MTC for short) in North America.

Edited February 27, 2019 by Deep Wang

[charlie Jatinder]

Just now, Deep Wang said:

 

It's all the presales to date for one Major Theater Chain(MTC for short) in North America.

Ok. Thanks and you prefer to keep the name of chain secret?

[Deep Wang]

Just now, Charlie Jatinder said:

Ok. Thanks and you prefer to keep the name of chain secret?

 

That would be great, but people know, or if you search well enough you can find it.  I didn't expect to be able to get these again after I left, and I don't want to get anyone else in trouble.

[Deep Wang]

9 minutes ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

May be not. Captain Marvel will be to BaTB as in a Star Wars film is to MCU in term of presales.

In simple words, superhero film will be more pre sale heavy.

 

BATB had more presales than Civil War and BvS at the time(barely).  Behind only Star Wars and BP/IW I think.

[ThomasNicole]

11 minutes ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

May be not. Captain Marvel will be to BaTB as in a Star Wars film is to MCU in term of presales.

In simple words, superhero film will be more pre sale heavy.

Not really.... BTAB was pretty pre sale heavy.

 

It’s much higher than GOTG Vol. 2 for example

 

If I remember correctly, it have +10M according to Deep Wang data. GOTG2 finish in the low 8M, which i think is probably where CM is gonna land for a debut around $ 150M.

[ZeeSoh]

4 minutes ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

Ok. Thanks and you prefer to keep the name of chain secret?

There was a huge hoopla around the time Wonder Woman was coming out. PS numbers that were posted here got shared around on reddit and fan sites and then some dumbass fanboy decided to tweet to some very high up ppl at other theatre chains about PS numbers and what not. 

 

That led to the original buzz and tracking thread to get nuked and this mew thread was created. We lost a treasure trove of data in that thread. Although mods do have access to it and Grim sometimes does PS comparisons using the old data. 

 

This is why the mods here are very wary about data from being posted to other sites even from ppl like Rthanos and Empire

[Nova]

BATB had very strong pre-sales which is expected of a movie targeting females. It would actually be a great comparison and I think Deep Wang has been alluding to it as a comp (at least when I have looked at past updates for CM). If CM plays like a 4 quadrant film with a higher female target ratio, then BATB would be a great comp cause I believe it was a 4 quadrant film with a higher female audience ratio as well. It's probably going to be our best comp tbh 

 

 

[JB33]

33 minutes ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

May be not. Captain Marvel will be to BaTB as in a Star Wars film is to MCU in term of presales.

In simple words, superhero film will be more pre sale heavy.

Yeah, I thought about that. BatB had a fairly soft Friday relative to the weekend as a whole.

 

It's not the same month, but I find myself gravitating to Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 as a comparable. How do you feel about comparing a May release and a March release?

[Porthos]

Captain Marvel Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-9 Days and counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	2	98	7713	12094	36.22%

 

Total Showings Added Today:        4

Total Seats Added Today:           326

Total Seats Sold Today:              168

 

1.1985x as many tickets sold as Black Panther 9 days before release. [Captain Marvel has 58 days of pre-sales compared to Black Panther's 30 days]*

.4806x as many tickets sold as Infinity War 9 days before release. [Captain Marvel has 58 days of pre-sales compared to Infinity War's 41 days]

1.2831x as many tickets sold as Deadpool 2 9 days before release. [Captain Marvel has 58 days of pre-sales compared to DP2's 29 days]

1.1121x as many tickets sold as Solo 9 days before release. [Captain Marvel has 58 days of pre-sales compared to Solo's 20 days]

2.2141x as many tickets sold as Jurassic World 2 9 days before release. [Captain Marvel has 58 days of pre-sales compared to JW2's 22 days]

2.0698x as many tickets sold as Fantastic Beasts 2 9 days before release. [Captain Marvel has 58 days of pre-sales compared to FB2's 30 days]

NOTE: If a theater locally that is now selling tickets for reserved seating was selling them for the above movies, but as non-reserved seating for that movie, it is not counted toward the ratio of 'as many tickets sold' for the movie in question.  If a theater is brand new to the region and wasn't yet open for one of the above movies, however, it will be counted toward the ratio.

 

Also, see spoiler box for different comps with BP, without the new theater in town as well as the stat bloc for Captain Marvel without the extra theatre tracking info.

 

Day T-9 Comp:

 

BP:            125 tickets sold [2 sellouts/70 showings    |    3831/7110 seats left  | 46.12% sold]

IW:            200 tickets sold [4 sellouts/131 showings |   4495/12673 seats left  | 64.53% sold]

DP2:          154 tickets sold [0 sellouts/119 showings |  10404/13467 seats left | 22.74% sold]

Solo:           83 tickets sold [1 sellout/90 showings     |     6266/9800 seats left  | 36.06% sold]

JW2:          109 tickets sold [0 sellouts/111 showings |   9488/11263 seats left  | 15.76% sold]

FB2:          112 tickets sold  [0 sellouts/94 showings  |  11388/13377 seats left  | 14.87% sold]

CM (adj)*: 148 tickets sold [2 sellouts/98 showings   |   6699/10629 seats left   | 36.97% sold]

* CM (adj) is the number of tickets sold without the extra theaters I now have tracking info for

 

====

 

Further BP Comp inside Spoiler Box:

 

Spoiler

Due to having more reserved seating info now than when BP debuted in Sacramento, two more BP-only comp charts:

 

Captain Marvel Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-9 Days and counting

(Exact same theaters/reserved seating info as Black Panther)

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	2	92	6163	9651	36.14%

 

Total Showings Added Today:        4

Total Seats Added Today:           326

Total Seats Sold Today:              134

 

1.0637x as many tickets sold as Black Panther 9 days before release. [Captain Marvel has 58 days of pre-sales compared to Black Panther's 30 days]

 

---

 

Captain Marvel Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-9 Days and counting

(Equivalent reserved seating info as Black Panther plus Regal Delta Shores which opened in the interim)

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	2	98	6699	10629	36.97%

 

Total Showings Added Today:        4

Total Seats Added Today:           326

Total Seats Sold Today:              148

 

1.1985x as many tickets sold as Black Panther 9 days before release. [Captain Marvel has 58 days of pre-sales compared to Black Panther's 30 days]

Edited February 28, 2019 by Porthos

[Joyous Legion]

Another day increasing its proportion of IW. Sacramento still seems to be pointing around 20, but we'll see how the red carpet premiere goes.

[Porthos]

27 minutes ago, Thanos Legion said:

Another day increasing its proportion of IW.

And this really is to be expected, IMO.  As of right now, IW has sold 62% of all the tickets sold that I tracked (I stop tracking at about an hour to 30 minutes before the main showings of the night*).  

 

* Unless it's a SW movie.  Then I stop tacking a bit earlier for obvious reasons.

 

So even though IW is still going to sell a shit ton of tickets, CM 'only' has to sell 60% or more on any given day to keep creeping up.

 

Take today.  IW started its main ramp up, fueled in large part by a large batch of new showings added, and sold 200 tickets locally.  CM, meanwhile, sold 148 tickets at the exact same theaters (also fueled, in part at least, by new showings added).  

 

That's roughly 75% of IW.  Keep doing that (and, no, I'm not saying it will) and that percentage against IW will keep going up.

[Porthos]

On the other hand, there's BP.  Yes, CM is still outselling BP on a day-to-day basis.  Barely.  At the exact same theaters.  Today it was 134 (CM) v 125 (BP), for instance.

 

But here's the thing.  Even with the exact same number of theaters, CM has more showings RIGHT NOW than BP did at the time. 

 

This is why the percentage of seats sold matters (BP: 46.12% | CM: 36.22%).  A ten percent difference ain't nothing.  Far from it, in fact.

 

The reason I think this is happening is that BP took many folks in the industry by surprise.  I know there were True Believers on this board.  But outside of them, there weren't many people calling for a 25m Thur and a 202m 3day OW.

 

Locally, the showings that were already scheduled were for a bit smaller movie when it comes to demand.  

 

And when showings kept getting added, they kept getting filled up.

 

CM, on the other hand, started with a larger base of movies at the exact same theaters (thanks to the massive success of BP and IW, no doubt).  As of a week ago it was 68 showings for BP versus 79 for CM.  Right now its 70 (BP) versus 92 (CM).  Those extra 10 to 20 showings for CM matter, and that's how CM is 'beating' BP right now in raw tickets sold, even though BP has a much higher percentage.

 

Now this isn't to take anything away from CM's strength locally.  It's doing rather well in fact locally, IMO.  

 

Just don't let the day-to-day sale versus BP fool you is more or less what I am saying.

Edited February 27, 2019 by Porthos

[SpiderByte]

I'm dumb and can't understand any of these numbers: what are we looking at for Captain Marvel?

[Wonder89]

2 minutes ago, SpiderByte said:

I'm dumb and can't understand any of these numbers: what are we looking at for Captain Marvel?

Probably over 180 OW

[ThomasNicole]

38 minutes ago, SpiderByte said:

I'm dumb and can't understand any of these numbers: what are we looking at for Captain Marvel?

Realistically: $ 140 - 160M

[Premium George]

46 minutes ago, SpiderByte said:

I'm dumb and can't understand any of these numbers: what are we looking at for Captain Marvel?

$80m-$210m. 

[MrGlass2]

12 hours ago, Deep Wang said:

 

I have three specific days in mind coming up I want to get(I'm sure you guys can guess which ones), so nothing until then 😉

Is it last day for CM and EG, and early presales for EG?

 

Or early, middle and last day for Detective Pikachu?

[Deep Wang]

Just now, MrGlass2 said:

Is it last day for CM and EG, and early presales for EG?

 

Or early, middle and last day for Detective Pikachu?

 

Kinda, you'll just have to wait and see.  Hopefully, you won't have to wait very long!

[Eric is Anxious]

Fandango App

Monday

Tues

Wed

Thursday

Truth Or Dare

385

760

2,133

I Feel Pretty

871

1,610

4,423

Breaking In

727

1,204

2,899

Book Club

836

1,599

3,283

Hereditary

659

1,178

3,181

Unfriended

71

240

975

Happytime Murders

382

*488

1,954

5,602

Night School

1,045

1,756

3,566

Hellfest

195

304

661

Bad Times at the El Royale

264

481

1,257

3,350

Nobody's Fool

436

900

1,719

4,437

Overlord

299

604

1,599

4,522

Possession of Hannah Grace

105

285

893

3,053

Second Act

353

611

1,204

What Men Want

1,383

2,505

5,405

9,328

The Prodigy

161

359

847

2,288

Madea Family Funeral	1,587	2,482
Greta	120	287
*4pm-12am

 

See the  full  list here:  https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Q-1UceCRkSh3BraIvvm0XDJyoUJsyrq8oOufQvjP7Qk/edit#gid=209330330

 

Madea Comps:

154% of I Feel Pretty (24.7M)

206% of Breaking In (36.9M)

155% of Book Club (21.1M)

141% of Night School (38.5M)

276% of Nobody's Fool (37.9M)

406% of Second Act (26.4M)

99% of What Men Want (18.1M)

 

Greta Comps:

38% of Truth or Dare (7M)

24% of Hereditary (3.3M)

94% of Hell Fest (4.8M)

60% of Bad Times at the El Royale (4.2M)

47% of Overlord (4.8M)

101% of Hannah Grace (6.4M)

80% of The Prodigy (4.7M)

 

Madea's gone down to earth a bit, and I'm just gonna assume it'll land somewhere in the low 20s. Greta will probably also do a modest 4M.

 

Movie/Date	Monday	Tuesday
Captain Marvel	6,647	8,737
	11 days	10 days
Us	148	181
	25 days	24 days

 

From Day 17-Day 10

 

.38x of Black Panther (92.1M)

Edited February 27, 2019 by CoolEric258

[Wonder89]

CM is in Fandango Top 5, but not in Movietickets Top 5