The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Porthos]

19 minutes ago, Biggestgeekever said:

Oh, this is what DL meant

 

https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/heat-vision/captain-marvel-top-fandango-preseller-avengers-infinity-war-1192446?utm_source=twitter&utm_source=t.co&utm_medium=referral

 

 

 

Quote

 What’s giving further juice to the lofty Captain Marvel stateside forecast is that we’re hearing the pic’s advance ticket sales are beating that of last April’s Avengers: Infinity War. 

 

Quote

Captain Marvel has scored more advance ticket sales than any movie since fellow Marvel juggernaut Avengers: Infinity War in late April of last year, Fandango announced Tuesday.

Dear Deadline:

 

[Litio]

They fixed:

 What’s giving further juice to the lofty Captain Marvel stateside forecast is that we’re hearing the pic’s advance ticket sales are beating that of Captain America: Civil War

 

https://deadline.com/2019/03/captain-marvel-box-office-opening-record-preview-1202569811/

[Joyous Legion]

2 minutes ago, Litio said:

They fixed:

 What’s giving further juice to the lofty Captain Marvel stateside forecast is that we’re hearing the pic’s advance ticket sales are beating that of Captain America: Civil War

 

https://deadline.com/2019/03/captain-marvel-box-office-opening-record-preview-1202569811/

From “beating” a 1 year old 260 opener to beating a 3 year old 180 opener    

 

Should have just said “on par with Black Panther” if they want to be truthful(ish) and hype things up.

[Stewart]

10 minutes ago, Litio said:

They fixed:

 What’s giving further juice to the lofty Captain Marvel stateside forecast is that we’re hearing the pic’s advance ticket sales are beating that of Captain America: Civil War

 

https://deadline.com/2019/03/captain-marvel-box-office-opening-record-preview-1202569811/

That's actually a disappointing pointless statement. Beating a 3 year old movie in presales is nothing. Even AM2 probably got close to Civil war given that movies are more presale heavy now that ever before...

Edited March 5, 2019 by feasby007

[Deep Wang]

4 hours ago, CoolEric258 said:

Stealing the chart Wang generated in early January 

 

  Reveal hidden contents



 

I'm keeping this a spoiler out of respect for Wang's wishes.

 

But if you notice in the chart, this is doing exceptional business. Ragnarok is more than tripled by CM's business, and it's above what BatB (likely) got by Thursday. And there's still a couple more days to go. At this point, I'm no longer O/U Hunger Games. I'm O/U BvS, maybe even BatB.

 

The only thing that worries me is JL.  That was an anomaly and I don't know why it did so poor compared to presales. I think BR2049 also underperformed relative to presales.

 

The MCU has, so far, been pretty reliable and consistent.  But it only takes one to break the cycle.

Edited March 5, 2019 by Deep Wang

[FlashMaster659]

2 hours ago, Thanos Legion said:

Some hourly check-ins on the Fandango 24 hr tracker:  

Tues 3/5   

12:00 39.6k

13:00  39.8k

14:00  38.8k

15:00  38.8k

16:00  38.6k     

17:00  38.5k

 

As we can see it’s trending down a bit (1k in 4 hours), not sure if that will continue or reverse. Still as long as it ends near Monday’s 34K (which would also be near BP’s Tuesday 36k) that will be very healthy.

Back up to 38.8k

[charlie Jatinder]

These websites are bunch of jokes tbh. One, I don't give a shit about tracking anymore (even non-working clock is right twice a day by fluke).

 

Two not even bother to read international projection. ffs they were predicting $250mn roof for international weekend for IW when it was crystal clear that it ain't doing less than $350mn.

 

Now Captain Marvel shall do $250mn range and the best they are projecting is $200mn? Not even?

Comparing with BP, this gonna make

$90-100mn China

$27-30mn Korea

$7mn India

 

These 3 totals $125-137mn, while BP did $94mn. I don't know about pre-sales in other Asian markets, but BP did around $40mn and this will do atleast $50mn in them. Atleast.

 

The Asia alone will be $175-190mn compared to $135mn BP did, leaving to match $100mn in rest of world. Say CM is 20% behind BP, which it shouldn't be, it still will be $255-275mn.

 

[Rebeccas]

24 minutes ago, Deep Wang said:

 

The only thing that worries me is JL.  That was an anomaly and I don't know why it did so poor compared to presales. I think BR2049 also underperformed relative to presales.

 

The MCU has, so far, been pretty reliable and consistent.  But it only takes one to break the cycle.

BR2049 kinda makes sense to me. It's a sequel and also the movie's very long and slow (and probably boring to a lot of people).. 

[fabiopazzo2]

2019-03-05 23:00:24.518975 UTC
1	35.3%	Captain Marvel
2	15.9%	Tyler Perry's A Madea Family Funeral
3	11.2%	How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World
4	3.8%	Alita: Battle Angel
5	3.6%	Green Book

[FlashMaster659]

7 minutes ago, fabiopazzo2 said:

2019-03-05 23:00:24.518975 UTC
1	35.3%	Captain Marvel
2	15.9%	Tyler Perry's A Madea Family Funeral
3	11.2%	How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World
4	3.8%	Alita: Battle Angel
5	3.6%	Green Book

The hourly drops have been a little steeper than I expected

[nevermore]

2019-03-06 00:00:33.066976 UTC
1	33.6%	Captain Marvel
2	16.1%	Tyler Perry's A Madea Family Funeral
3	12%	How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World
4	4%	Alita: Battle Angel
5	3.5%	Green Book

[charlie Jatinder]

On 3/2/2019 at 6:34 PM, Charlie Jatinder said:

Not sure about it but doing some math from some data pieces, the pure Friday presales of IW, BP and S-M:HC were

  Reveal hidden contents

IW 33M

BP 21M

S-M:HC 9M

1

 

ICYMI, most of you did. Will get numbers for CM as earliest as 7AM PT, Friday.

Edited March 6, 2019 by Charlie Jatinder

[Porthos]

4 hours ago, Porthos said:

Locally CM actually managed to have more screens/seats than IW did on the Monday of release week [I don't expect this to last].

*does mid day prep of Sacramento Report to save time tonight*

 

...

 

Yeah.  About that guess...

 

IW final count of screenings for Thr (reserved, non-reserved, drive-in):   182 screens

CM current count (reserved, non-reserved, drive-in):  184 screens.

 

And at least a couple of theaters haven't set their full Thr lineup yet. 😬

 

...

 

Gonna be a monster number out of Sacratomato, even without a similar percentage of seats sold as BP or IW. 

 

===

 

Now it is certainly true that IW had to contend with holdovers eating up screen real estate, if not dollars.  So a tiny bit of apples to oranges.  And it is true that no one has been crazy enough to schedule overnight screenings here in Sacramento, like IW.  So this comparison only goes so far. 

 

Still, I'm shocked at this screening count.  And this is a pure like-for-like comparison, as there the exact same number of theaters are playing both IW and CM, even if a couple have switched to full reserved seating.

 

Edited March 6, 2019 by Porthos
didn't count a screening in my spreadsheet

[Joyous Legion]

200+ Thursday Endgame showings for Sacramento is coming

[Porthos]

1 minute ago, Thanos Legion said:

200+ Thursday Endgame showings for Sacramento is coming

250 or bust.

 

Spoiler

<Declines to mention for now>

A new 13 screen complex is opening up the week before Endgame premieres. 

</Declines to mention for now>

 

[poweranimals]

1 hour ago, FlashMaster659 said:

The hourly drops have been a little steeper than I expected

You think it's a bad sign? I know that it's discount Tuesday but you'd I figured we might see a bit of a spike from increased interest after the premiere.

[Porthos]

9 minutes ago, Porthos said:

250 or bust.

 

  Hide contents

<Declines to mention for now>

A new 13 screen complex is opening up the week before Endgame premieres. 

</Declines to mention for now>

 

Ah, well.  Was going to wait until the CM craziness calms down, and I'll bring it up again (and again and again ) when Endgame is on its run, but yes, Cinema West is opening up a 13 screen complex in the old Country Club Plaza in Sacramento.

 

It's gonna be 3 miles away from Century Arden by surface streets, so I'm interested in seeing just how much business it takes away from the current King of Sacramento (if they're 'allowed' to get the same movies as Century Arden, that is).

 

One the one hand, Cinema West is a small chain, so it won't have instant name recognition in town.  On the other hand, they are the outfit that runs the two Palladio theaters up in Folsom, and they have very good reps among movie goers here (if not quite to the level of Arden).

 

On the other other hand, the mall at Country Club Plaza has an afterthought for most of us here, and this is an attempt to bring their mall back into relevance.

 

On the fourth hand, that area of town could stand to have another movie theater, so maybe it and Century Arden can co-exist.

 

Really, I'm a bit more interested in seeing how it does post-Endgame, as I reckon it'll take time to build up awareness in town.

 

...

 

Mostly though I'm just feeling a little pity for them that they get to deal with Endgame after being open for six whole days.

Edited March 6, 2019 by Porthos

[JB33]

39 minutes ago, Porthos said:

*does mid day prep of Sacramento Report to save time tonight*

 

...

 

Yeah.  About that guess...

 

IW final count of screenings for Thr (reserved, non-reserved, drive-in):   182 screens

CM current count (reserved, non-reserved, drive-in):  184 screens.

 

And at least a couple of theaters haven't set their full Thr lineup yet. 😬

 

...

 

Gonna be a monster number out of Sacratomato, even without a similar percentage of seats sold as BP or IW. 

 

===

 

Now it is certainly true that IW had to contend with holdovers eating up screen real estate, if not dollars.  So a tiny bit of apples to oranges.  And it is true that no one has been crazy enough to schedule overnight screenings here in Sacramento, like IW.  So this comparison only goes so far. 

 

Still, I'm shocked at this screening count.  And this is a pure like-for-like comparison, as there the exact same number of theaters are playing both IW and CM, even if a couple have switched to full reserved seating.

 

Do you feel the screening count is more due to the barren market or perceived demand? I realize those two go hand in hand, but I guess I'm wondering if this is a case of theatres simply filling their cinemas with showtimes, as if to say "Hey, look! We finally have something good!" or if it's more "Okay, this is going to be a monster. We better add x number of showtimes", on top of the barren market factor.

[Joyous Legion]

On 3/2/2019 at 5:04 AM, Charlie Jatinder said:

IW 33M

BP 21M

S-M:HC 9M

 

55 minutes ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

ICYMI, most of you did. Will get numbers for CM as earliest as 7AM PT, Friday.

IW 39/33=1.182

BP 25.2/21=1.2

SMH 15.4/9=1.711    

 

So, unsurprisingly, higher multiplier for the lower raw PS. 1.1 should be a pretty safe lower bound for CM, I should think.

Edited March 6, 2019 by Thanos Legion

[Porthos]

Speaking of new theaters, I mentioned this last year, but there are two more theaters planned for Sacramento in the near future.  Studio Movie Grill is scheduled to open a new theater later this year in Citrus Heights (in the third financial quarter is the last I heard).  And Cinemark is supposed to open its own dinner and a movie theater complex right next door to Century Arden, but I haven't heard much about that one recently.

 

So, yeah, lots and lots of screen inflation going on in my backyard.