The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[fabiopazzo2]

17 days to go

2019-04-08 22:00:30.528792 UTC
1	26.4%	Avengers: Endgame
2	25.5%	Shazam!
3	10.3%	Pet Sematary
4	7.6%	Dumbo
5	6.8%	Captain Marvel

[dxmatrixdt]

700 - Star Wars

675 - Avengers

575 - Lion King

425 - Frozen 2 

410 - Captain Marvel

375 - Detective Pikachu

300 - Spider-Man 2

250 - Jumanji 2

250 - It: Chapter 2

 

220 - Secret Pets 2

220 - Toy Story 4

215 - Hobbes & Shaw

200 - Aladdin

200 - Joker

190 - Godzilla

180 - Us

175 - Maleficent 2

160 - How to Train Your Dragon 3

160 - Shazam!

125 - Artemis Fowl

125 - Men in Black

#22) Midway - 120

Cats - 115

Charlie's Angels - 110

110 - Dark Phoenix

110 - Dumbo

110 - Glass

110 - The Upside

105 - Lego Movie 2

100 - Terminator

100 - Rocketman

100 - … Hollywood

 

95 - Annabelle 3

95 - Child's Play

95 - John Wick 3

#36 - Sonic the Hedgehog - 95

90 - Angry Birds

90 - Dora

85 - Alita

85 - New Mutants

75 - The Addams Family 

75 - Madea Family Funeral

70 - Pet Semetary

70 - Shaft

 

#45 - #51

60 - Little Women

60 - Call of the Wild

60 - Fair & Balanced

60 - Super Intelligence

60 - Knives Out 

60 - A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood

60 - Zombieland 2

 

#52 - #59

55 - Angel Has Fallen

55 - Ma

55 - Scary Stories

55 - Curse of La Lorona

55 - Hellboy

55 - What Men Want

55  - Escape Room

 

Edited April 8, 2019 by shouldnt have shouldnt be

[TalismanRing]

9 minutes ago, Porthos said:

It's like they don't like money, or something. 

 

Textbook definition of Penny Wise, Pound Foolish on their part.

I think they're betting on it to fill since the surrounding 3D times are both 83% full.  It's also why they're late on adding more 2D, there's not even a show past 10:30pm yet.

 

People will walk up and all the 2D and RPX are sold out and wham $20+ a ticket for a format you hate. ca-ching

 

 

[Legion Again]

3/4 through the day, has now passed the Fandango sales of Sunday, Saturday, and Friday with an estimated 17,487 tickets.

Edited April 8, 2019 by Thanos Legion

[FlashMaster659]

MT

 

Endgame - 31.2%

Shazam! - 22.9%

PS - 9.7%

Dumbo - 6.9%

CM - 6.1%

[XXR vs XXR]

MT.com 

 

Endgame -- 31.2 % 

Shazam -- 22.9 %

Pet Semtary -- 9.7 %

Dumbo -- 6.9 %

Captain Marvel -- 6.1 %

 

 

 

[XXR vs XXR]

Decided to check another theaters numbers, just for interest. AMC with 10 screens, about 25 miles from my main theater in a more suburban/less populated area and only opened 5 weeks ago. Average ticket price is calculated as 90% regular - 5% child - 5% senior. 

 

Dolby Prime -- Avg. Ticket $16.22

6:00pm -- 141/175

10:00pm -- 134/175

2:00am -- 11/175 

 

IMAX -- Avg. Ticket $14.77

7:00pm -- 147/159

11:00pm -- 124/159

 

Real 3D -- Avg. Ticket $13.77 

7:30pm -- 88/118

9:00pm -- 47/89

11:30pm -- 10/118

 

Digital -- Avg. Ticket $10.27

6:30pm -- 89/118

8:00pm -- 62/89

10:30pm -- 66/118

12:00am -- 32/89

12:30am -- 4/48

1:00am -- 0/89

 

 

Total = 955/1719 -- 55.56% 

Est. Theater Intake -- $13,236.55

 

 

 

[Legion Again]

On 4/7/2019 at 6:47 PM, Thanos Legion said:

1	31.4%	Shazam!
2	13.6%	Dumbo
3	11.4%	Pet Sematary
4	11%	Avengers: Endgame
5	9.4%	Captain Marvel     

 

Well, I think there’s a good chance that Endgame won’t have any days in the presale period where it failed to appear in the MT top 5. That’s a remarkable record still!       

 

CM is once again above Us, everything is pretty stable from yesterday. Should see a big change tomorrow, think Endgame will return to #1 but may be a bit short.

“But may be a bit short” Lol, nope.

 

A very commanding performance from Endgame 18 days before release against the 4th day of a 50M opener.  Wish we had TFA data to compare to, but that was in the nuked version of the thread, right? Could dig up some TLJ days I guess. Us was in 5th 2 hours ago, so I think it’s just barely behind CM. 

17:00 Pacific Time

1	32.5%	Avengers: Endgame
2	22.2%	Shazam!
3	9.7%	Pet Sematary
4	6.4%	Dumbo
5	6.0%	Captain Marvel

Edited April 9, 2019 by Thanos Legion

[Porthos]

Oh wow.  That new theater in town is now scheduled to open on the 22nd (instead of the original target date of the 19th).

 

Now I really really REALLY hope they don't get Endgame.  Coz, like there are shakedown cruises to iron out the kinks.  Then there's shakedown cruises which are more like the Kobayashi Maru where there are flames and explosions everywhere and strewn bodies in the wreckage.

 

Like, I would NOT want the first weekend of a movie theater I just opened to be THAT one, that's for sure! 

[TalismanRing]

1 minute ago, Porthos said:

Oh wow.  That new theater in town is now scheduled to open on the 22nd (instead of the original target date of the 19th).

 

Now I really really REALLY hope they don't get Endgame.  Coz, like there are shakedown cruises to iron out the kinks.  Then there's shakedown cruises which are more like the Kobayashi Maru where there are flames and explosions everywhere and strewn bodies in the wreckage.

 

Like, I would NOT want the first weekend of a movie theater I just opened to be THAT one, that's for sure! 

Your balance sheet would like it though

 

 

[Porthos]

2 minutes ago, Thanos Legion said:

 Wish we had TFA data to compare to, but that was in the nuked version of the thread, right?

(Yes it is in the Nuked Thread)

 

I was only lurking then, but it is exceedingly like the runup to TFA.  Only difference on my end is the difference in sellouts.  But locally that might be down the MASSIVE number of showings difference.  Even when I take out the new/remodeled theaters out of the equation, there are just so so  sooooo many more showtimes this time around.

[Porthos]

2 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:

Your balance sheet would like it though

 

 

Think of the Yelp reviews though. 

 

(Only partially kidding here - a bad first impression isn't exactly what any new business wants)

Edited April 9, 2019 by Porthos

[XXR vs XXR]

On 4/6/2019 at 3:14 PM, VenomXXR said:

 

Avengers: Endgame Current Status -- April 6, 2019 @ 3:00pm -- 19 Days Remaining 

 

AMC Prime

6:00pm -- 205/205 -- SOLD OUT  
10:00pm -- 189/205

2:00am -- 59/205

 

 

IMAX 3D

6:30pm -- 146/151

10:30pm -- 128/151 

2:30am -- 28/151 

 

 

Real 3D

6:15pm -- 42/60

6:45pm -- 60/60 -- SOLD OUT 

7:30pm -- 95/125

8:00pm -- 53/76

8:45pm --60/60 -- SOLD OUT  

9:45pm -- 17/44

10:25pm -- 23/60

10:45pm -- 18/60 

11:30pm -- 35/125 

12:00am -- 5/76 
12:45am -- 2/60

1:50am -- 2/44

2:20am -- NEW -- 0/60

 

 

Digital
6:00pm -- 69/76

6:10pm -- 38/44

7:00pm -- 128/147

7:10pm -- 30/44 

7:15pm -- 57/76

7:45pm -- 45/60

7:50pm -- 31/44 

8:15pm -- 35/44

8:30pm -- 54/76

9:00pm -- 111/147

9:30pm -- 28/44 

10:10pm -- 24/44

10:15pm -- 55/76

11:00pm -- 103/147

11:10pm -- 20/44 

11:15pm -- 56/76

11:45pm -- 37/60

11:50pm -- 16/44

12:15am -- 12/44

12:30am -- 29/76

1:00am -- 0/147

1:45am -- 4/44

2:10am -- NEW -- 0/76

 

 

Fan Event

5:00pm -- 147/147 -- SOLD OUT 

 

 

 

TOTALS: 43 show times, 2149 tickets sold out of 3805 available (56.48%)

 

Captain Marvel -- 30 show times, 1140 tickets sold out of 2734 available (41.7%) -- final tracking
Infinity War -- 37 show times, 2449 tickets sold out of 3312 available (73.95%) -- final tracking  

 

Tickets sold represents 188.5% of the tickets sold for Captain Marvel through 6:30pm on Wednesday before opening & 87.8% of the tickets sold for Infinity War through 8:30pm on the Wednesday before opening.

 

 

 

 

Not doing another ticket count until Wednesday, but wanted to give the average tickets price and accumulative total so far...

 

Prime = $16.47

IMAX 3D = $16.47

Real 3D = $14.47
Digital = $10.97 

Fan Event = $20.00

 

Total Theater Gross --- Thursday: $32,109.03 --- $14.94 Theater Avg.  

 

 

[Porthos]

Just now, Porthos said:

Think of the Yelp reviews though. 

 

(Only partially kidding here - a bad first impression isn't exactly what any new business wants)

To piggy back on this a bit, Century Arden under went a pretty extensive full renovation between TFA and R1.  Like,  close the entire theater for 11 months full renovation.

 

They reopened two weeks before R1 and I saw their operation first hand during the premiere of R1.  Smooth as silk.  Well, nearly as smooth as a 25m opener could be.  Minor problems here or there, but they handled the crowds very very well.  I have to think the first couple of weeks allowed them to get familiar with things, especially since I had popped in a week or so prior to see something else and they were still ironing out some kinks at the time.

 

And it's the "ironing out the kinks" bit which I would be most worried about, since it's really hard to iron them out until you take the beast for a spin for real.

[JB33]

On 11/27/2017 at 9:39 PM, aabattery said:

 

 

This was the top 5 at the same number of days out:

 

MT TOP5

Mockingjay: 23.2%
Star Wars: 19.1%
The Good Dinosaur: 17.8%
Creed: 12.1%

Spectre: 5%

Went digging back to November 27, 2017 (same point before TLJ's release that we are now before AEG's release) and fortunately back then some people were digging for comparisons to TFA! I believe the above is T-18 days before TFA's release as well.

[Porthos]

So I was doing a different methodology back then (I complied seat level data but didn't put it in the thread).  And this is without two theaters that opened in the meantime.  As well as at least two less theaters that were open, but not showing TLJ.

With all of that out of  the way:

 

On 12/7/2017 at 11:55 PM, Porthos said:

TLJ GREATER SACRAMENTO SELLOUT REPORT:  T-7days

 

Previews: 30/132 (+1/+0) [R1: 6/106 showings]

(Includes Double Feature & Opening Night Fan Event)

 

2D: 26/88 (+0/+0) [R1: 4/70]

3D: 4/44 (+1/0)   [R1: 2/36]

 

<<Reserved Theater Info: 81 showings [R1: 46 showings]>>

 

Almost Sold Out (95%+ sold out)

11 [R1: 4]

 

Nearly Sold Out (90% to 94% sold out)

6 [R1: 2]

 

Front Two Rows Only (or the equivalent amount of seats)

28 [R1:20]

 

Heavily Sold (75% to 89% sold out)

2 [R1: 0]

NOTE:  If a showing only has wheelchair and wheelchair companion seats left, it is counted as a sellout

Yes, that's 30 sellouts seven days before opening. Notice the difference in showings though.  132 versus 221.  A lot of that is probably down to fewer theaters (I think four fewer theaters sounds about right), but not all of it.

 

The comparison using THIS metric for Endgame (as of last night):

 

Endgame Sellout Report (as of Last Night), 18 days away

Previews:  9/221

 

2D: 9/177  

3D: 0/44 

 

<<Reserved Theater Info: 192 showings>>

 

Almost Sold Out (95%+ sold out)

15 

 

Nearly Sold Out (90% to 94% sold out)

26 

 

Front Two Rows Only (or the equivalent amount of seats)

82 

 

Heavily Sold (75% to 89% sold out)

5 

 

=======

 

I don't believe I posted the lower level data like 10%+ or 20%+ or 30%+, though I could check later reports.

 

But the thing that stands out immediately is the sheer difference between "front two rows or less".  If we switch to percentages, TLJ had 34.6% while EG has 37.1% at more than twice the reserved seating showings tracked. Now there are those provisos I'm famous for.  Not only was TLJ showing at around four less theaters, but I have more sources of reserved seating info nowadays.

Even so.

 

Still, if one wants, look at sold out + almost/nearly sold out + ftr (using the reserved seat number as the divider instead of total showings).

 

TLJ: 75

EG: 132

 

That might seem like a huge difference, except with TLJ, I only had access to 81 showings with reserved seating info.  I don't recall how many of those sellouts at the time were from non-reserved seating, but they had to have been some. Thus I can't in good conscience put down a percentage on each. 

 

======

 

So what's the upshot?

 

I think the upshot is that an argument can be made and should be made that EG hasn't passed TLJ for preview night.  Yet.  Mostly down to the sheer level in difference of reserved seating information.

 

I also think it's pretty clear that when all is said and done, EG will smoke TLJ on preview night.  How much, I can't say though.

Edited April 9, 2019 by Porthos

[FlashMaster659]

Avengers: Endgame: Edwards Irvine Spectrum 21 IMAX & RPX - Thursday Night

 

Opening Night Fan Event

 

5:00 PM - 232/234

 

IMAX 2D

 

6:00 PM - 565/576

 

IMAX 3D

 

10:30 PM - 544/576

 

RPX 2D

 

6:30 PM - 528/586

 

RPX 3D

 

11:00 PM - 212/586

 

VIP 2D

 

6:15 PM - 84/88

 

VIP 3D

 

10:15 PM - 65/88

 

2D

 

7:00 PM - 544/605

7:45 PM - 266/591

11:15 PM - 391/605

12:00 AM - 31/178

 

Total

 

3462/4713 (73.5%)

Edited April 9, 2019 by FlashMaster659

[XXR vs XXR]

43 minutes ago, JB33 said:

Went digging back to November 27, 2017 (same point before TLJ's release that we are now before AEG's release) and fortunately back then some people were digging for comparisons to TFA! I believe the above is T-18 days before TFA's release as well.

 

43 minutes ago, JB33 said:

 

MT TOP5

Mockingjay: 23.2%
Star Wars: 19.1%
The Good Dinosaur: 17.8%
Creed: 12.1%

Spectre: 5%

 

 

18 days before release would have been Monday - December 1st (great comparison for today). Those other 4 films did the following total on that day...

 

Mockingjay -- $3.1 million

Good Dinosaur -- $1.57 million

Creed -- $2.32 million 

Spectre -- $900k

 

So I would hazard to guess that TFA did about $1.5 million that day? 

 

 

 

 

[Legion Again]

1 hour ago, JB33 said:

Went digging back to November 27, 2017 (same point before TLJ's release that we are now before AEG's release) and fortunately back then some people were digging for comparisons to TFA! I believe the above is T-18 days before TFA's release as well.

Damn, nice work.

On 11/27/2017 at 8:39 PM, aabattery said:

 

 

This was the top 5 at the same number of days out:

 

MT TOP5

Mockingjay: 23.2%
Star Wars: 19.1%
The Good Dinosaur: 17.8%
Creed: 12.1%

Spectre: 5%

Not clear if this is end of day, but I’ll just treat it like it was. The day was 11/30, and those other movies earned:

HE HUNGER GAMES: MOCKINGJAY - PART 2

$2,546,218

CREED

$1,927,483

THE GOOD DINOSAUR

$1,363,250

SPECTRE

$712,078

 

They made 6.55M combined, and TFA was at 32.9% of them on MT, would linearly (danger) give 2.15.

Next a T-18 TLJ reading:

On 11/27/2017 at 4:15 PM, FlashMaster659 said:

TLJ: 22.8%

Coco: 18.9%

JL: 12.6%

Wonder: 9%

Thor: 5.6%

Again it’s not totally clear if this was the end of day MT reading, but we’ll proceed anyway. The day was 11/27:

COCO	$2,322,084

JUSTICE LEAGUE

$2,103,667

WONDER

$1,224,911

THOR: RAGNAROK

$872,200

 

Total of 6.52M (so similar!). TLJ was doing 50% of their sales on this MT snapshot, would be 3.2M.   

 

Tl;dr It’s very difficult to do too much with Mondays without knowing the hour of the reading. And AEG is still benefitting from going on sale recently.

 

BUT. AEG’s competition did 28M on Sunday, so should do ~8.5M today, and AEG is doing 73% of their combined sales on MT (would be 6.2M linearly), so I consider that pretty impressive.   

 

Edit: As an aside, I am just now appreciating how useful it is for people years from now when the hour is included. I’m going back and editing all my end of day MT posts to be clear that they’re from 17:00 Pacific.

Edited April 9, 2019 by Thanos Legion

[FlashMaster659]

21 minutes ago, Thanos Legion said:

Damn, nice work.

Not clear if this is end of day, but I’ll just treat it like it was. The day was 11/30, and those other movies earned:

HE HUNGER GAMES: MOCKINGJAY - PART 2

$2,546,218

CREED

$1,927,483

THE GOOD DINOSAUR

$1,363,250

SPECTRE

$712,078

 

They made 6.55M combined, and TFA was at 32.9% of them on MT, would linearly (danger) give 2.15.

Next a T-18 TLJ reading:

Again it’s not totally clear if this was the end of day MT reading, but we’ll proceed anyway. The day was 11/27:

COCO	$2,322,084

JUSTICE LEAGUE

$2,103,667

WONDER

$1,224,911

THOR: RAGNAROK

$872,200

 

Total of 6.52M (so similar!). TLJ was doing 50% of their sales on this MT snapshot, would be 3.2M.   

 

Tl;dr It’s very difficult to do too much with Mondays without knowing the hour of the reading. And AEG is still benefitting from going on sale recently.

 

BUT. AEG’s competition did 28M on Sunday, so should do ~8.5M today, and AEG is doing 73% of their combined sales on MT (would be 6.2M linearly), so I consider that pretty impressive.   

 

Edit! As an aside, I am just now appreciating how useful it is for people years from now when the hour is included. I’m going back and editing all my end of day MT posts to be clear that they’re from 17:00 Pacific.

The TLJ comp is about 1 or 2 hours from the end of the day