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grim22

The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

By grim22, in Numbers and Data

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Posted by Porthos,

Really depends on what you're looking for, but usually the most important takeaway for just a casual glance is the comp.  More on that in a bit.   But even that is highly dependent on a movie being either in a similar genre or having a similar pre-sale pattern as folks will buy tickets at different times during a pre-sale window thanks to a very long list of factors.   Add in that movies will have different promotional schedules during their pre-sales (review embargoes, TV ca
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Posted by Cap,

MODERATION:   Hi, everyone. It’s 6 o’clock in the morning. I have not gone to bed yet. And I am tired. And I know it’s going to be a very long weekend. Here is the new rule.   This thread is for numbers and data. Please post your theater updates. Please post your comparable data. And please talk about that comparable data here.    If you wish to do a deep dive on why you think that data might or might not suck, then take it to the respective thread of the movie in ques
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stfletch Straight-to-DVD

stfletch

Posted
Posted (edited)

Updating my Fandango Sales AEG vs AIW table. Added in a factor column and switched to using the numbers from CoolEric258 for AEG so we are all consistent (they were only a few out from what I provided before). I will come back an edit this post in the morning with final day numbers.

 

AIW grew quite a bit over the equivalent next few day. I would be surprised if AEG does the same, but who knows at this point. Today's AEG sales have been crazy, I really wouldn't have expected each days sales to be so strong as I was expecting the initial first day frenzy to have burnt off most of the demand at least until the week before opening. 

 

AIW Date Days to Open AIW Tickets AEG Date AEG Tickets AEG/AIW Notes
2018-03-16 41 29,410        
2018-03-17 40 16,237        
2018-03-18 39 10,631        
2018-03-19 38 14,574        
2018-03-20 37 9,366        
2018-03-21 36 8,281        
2018-03-22 35 6,101        
2018-03-23 34 3,753        
2018-03-24 33 2,426        
2018-03-25 32 3,655        
2018-03-26 31 5,191        
2018-03-27 30 4,647        
2018-03-28 29 4,241        
2018-03-29 28 3,060        
2018-03-30 27 2,134        
2018-03-31 26 2,471        
2018-04-01 25 3,662        
2018-04-02 24 7,257        
2018-04-03 23 6,866 2019-04-02 ?   Pulse down entire day
2018-04-04 22 7,917 2019-04-03 10,258   Pulse down until around 7pm CST
2018-04-05 21 5,692 2019-04-04 30,292 5.3  
2018-04-06 20 3,618 2019-04-05 17,428 4.8  
2018-04-07 19 3,383 2019-04-06 11,697 3.5  
2018-04-08 18 6,363 2019-04-07 16,137 2.5  
2018-04-09 17 10,828 2019-04-08 28,219 2.6  
2018-04-10 16 8,670        
2018-04-11 15 13,960        
2018-04-12 14 13,332        
2018-04-13 13 7,614        
2018-04-14 12 5,602        
2018-04-15 11 9,314        
2018-04-16 10 18,403        
2018-04-17 9 19,431        
2018-04-18 8 23,790        
2018-04-19 7 18,788        
2018-04-20 6 14,281        
2018-04-21 5 12,368        
2018-04-22 4 27,180        
2018-04-23 3 48,861        
2018-04-24 2 55,376        
2018-04-25 1 68,137        
2018-04-26 0 76,734        
Edited by stfletch
Fixed row miss-match - Thanks FlashMaster! Updated with final daily number.
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Legion Again Global Phenomenon

Legion Again

Posted
Posted (edited)

Day 7 looks on track to end with about 80-85% of Day 3 Fandango sales. That seems... strange. For a bit of comparison:

CM Day 3 (Wednesday) 3,334 tickets   

CM Day 7 (Sunday) 936 tickets (28% of Day 3)  

CM Monday of 2nd presale week; 1118 tickets (33.5% of Day 3)  

And for kicks CM Day -18; 1902 (57% of Day 3 sales)  

 

Edit: Nope, more like 90-95%. Underestimated late night sales I guess.

Edited by Thanos Legion
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FlashMaster659 Box Office Gold

FlashMaster659

Posted
Posted
17 minutes ago, stfletch said:

Updating my Fandango Sales AEG vs AIW table. Added in a factor column and switched to using the numbers from CoolEric258 for AEG so we are all consistent (they were only a few out from what I provided before). I will come back an edit this post in the morning with final day numbers.

 

AIW grew quite a bit over the equivalent next few day. I would be surprised if AEG does the same, but who knows at this point. Today's AEG sales have been crazy, I really wouldn't have expected each days sales to be so strong as I was expecting the initial first day frenzy to have burnt off most of the demand at least until the week before opening. 

 

AIW Date Days to Open AIW Tickets AEG Date AEG Tickets AEG/AIW Notes
2018-03-16 41 29,410        
2018-03-17 40 16,237        
2018-03-18 39 10,631        
2018-03-19 38 14,574        
2018-03-20 37 9,366        
2018-03-21 36 8,281        
2018-03-22 35 6,101        
2018-03-23 34 3,753        
2018-03-24 33 2,426        
2018-03-25 32 3,655        
2018-03-26 31 5,191        
2018-03-27 30 4,647        
2018-03-28 29 4,241        
2018-03-29 28 3,060        
2018-03-30 27 2,134        
2018-03-31 26 2,471        
2018-04-01 25 3,662 2019-04-02 ?   Pulse down entire day
2018-04-02 24 7,257 2019-04-03 10,258   Pulse down until around 7pm CST
2018-04-03 23 6,866 2019-04-04 30,292 4.4  
2018-04-04 22 7,917 2019-04-05 17,428 2.2  
2018-04-05 21 5,692 2019-04-06 11,697 2.1  
2018-04-06 20 3,618 2019-04-07 16,137 4.5  
2018-04-07 19 3,383 2019-04-08 23,167 6.8 Till 10pm CST only
2018-04-08 18 6,363        
2018-04-09 17 10,828        
2018-04-10 16 8,670        
2018-04-11 15 13,960        
2018-04-12 14 13,332        
2018-04-13 13 7,614        
2018-04-14 12 5,602        
2018-04-15 11 9,314        
2018-04-16 10 18,403        
2018-04-17 9 19,431        
2018-04-18 8 23,790        
2018-04-19 7 18,788        
2018-04-20 6 14,281        
2018-04-21 5 12,368        
2018-04-22 4 27,180        
2018-04-23 3 48,861        
2018-04-24 2 55,376        
2018-04-25 1 68,137        
2018-04-26 0 76,734        

Shouldn't Endgame's pre-sales be moved 2 spaces down?

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stfletch Straight-to-DVD

stfletch

Posted
Posted (edited)
11 minutes ago, FlashMaster659 said:

Shouldn't Endgame's pre-sales be moved 2 spaces down?

Indeed they should! Thanks for spotting that, edited the post to fix. Makes the factor column a bit more sensible too - kinda what I expected, AIW is massively ahead of AEG, but the factor by which it is ahead each day is reducing.

Edited by stfletch
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XXR vs XXR Global Phenomenon

XXR vs XXR

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, stfletch said:

Indeed they should! Thanks for spotting that, edited the post to fix. Makes the factor column a bit more sensible too.

 

Through next Thursday will be telling on the pattern this will hold. The fact that it appears to have already outsold IW’s entire presale run (at least up through Wednesday before previews) is already crazy. I really wonder if demand will outstrip supply for Thurs/Fri.

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Menor the Destroyer Summer Tentpole

Menor the Destroyer

Posted
Posted

I made a program that found Endgame sales for all Cinemark theatres with reserved seating info:

Overall sales for April 25-28 (data collected Saturday through today, as I had to work through a few kinks in my data collection)

Theatres: 218

Showings: 14685

Tickets sold (non sellouts, as I couldn't really track the auditorium size of sellouts): 832411/1855135 or 44.87%

Sold-out showings: 362

I have more detailed breakdowns if anyone wants

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gfb Straight-to-DVD

gfb

Posted
Posted
38 minutes ago, Thanos Legion said:

Day 7 looks on track to end with about 80-85% of Day 3 Fandango sales. That seems... strange. For a bit of comparison:

CM Day 3 (Wednesday) 3,334 tickets   

CM Day 7 (Sunday) 936 tickets (28% of Day 3)  

CM Monday of 2nd presale week; 1118 tickets (33.5% of Day 3)  

And for kicks CM Day -18; 1902 (57% of Day 3 sales)  

I don't think it's that strange, early on monday always beats thursday. And Endgame's 3rd day is a thursday. Now, day 3 effect kicks in because monday won't beat thursday here and that's day 3 effect. But look up AIW's early presales, monday always beats thursday and 04/04/2019 being 3rd day provides additional %30 or so advantage. Think that's pretty normal. 

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XXR vs XXR Global Phenomenon

XXR vs XXR

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, Menor said:

I made a program that found Endgame sales for all Cinemark theatres with reserved seating info:

Overall sales for April 25-28 (data collected Saturday through today, as I had to work through a few kinks in my data collection)

Theatres: 218

Showings: 14685

Tickets sold (non sellouts, as I couldn't really track the auditorium size of sellouts): 832411/1855135 or 44.87%

Sold-out showings: 362

I have more detailed breakdowns if anyone wants

 

That’s an impressive little program you got there. I’d be interested in the more detailed breakdowns.

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Ledmonkey96 Box Office Gold

Ledmonkey96

Posted
Posted

Theater I work at finally added some more showings for Endgame, now it's playing in 5/13 theaters, assuming it sells out of every theater over the weekend it will almost have sold as many tickets over the weekend as Infinity War did. As it stands half of those seats are already sold.

 

2972/5920 over the weekend.

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Menor the Destroyer Summer Tentpole

Menor the Destroyer

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, VenomXXR said:

 

That’s an impressive little program you got there. I’d be interested in the more detailed breakdowns.

Alright, I have data of sales for each day from 4/25 to 4/28 along with sales for each format (3D and XD for Cinemark). Will try to post the numbers tomorrow

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stfletch Straight-to-DVD

stfletch

Posted
Posted
14 minutes ago, Menor said:

I made a program that found Endgame sales for all Cinemark theatres with reserved seating info:

Overall sales for April 25-28 (data collected Saturday through today, as I had to work through a few kinks in my data collection)

Theatres: 218

Showings: 14685

Tickets sold (non sellouts, as I couldn't really track the auditorium size of sellouts): 832411/1855135 or 44.87%

Sold-out showings: 362

I have more detailed breakdowns if anyone wants

Awesome work! If we use your numbers to estimate an average size of an auditorium and apply that to the sell outs we get an additional 45,371 tickets sold which bumps % sold to 46.2%. 

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Ledmonkey96 Box Office Gold

Ledmonkey96

Posted
Posted (edited)
9 minutes ago, stfletch said:

Awesome work! If we use your numbers to estimate an average size of an auditorium and apply that to the sell outs we get an additional 45,371 tickets sold which bumps % sold to 46.2%. 

Jeez, at just these 218 theaters (less than 5% of the total number of theaters this will open at) and we are already at $8~mil 2.5 weeks out, if we felt like being generous and extrapolating we'd already be at a nearly $160mil OW.

Edited by Ledmonkey96
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Menor the Destroyer Summer Tentpole

Menor the Destroyer

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, stfletch said:

Awesome work! If we use your numbers to estimate an average size of an auditorium and apply that to the sell outs we get an additional 45,371 tickets sold which bumps % sold to 46.2%. 

Thing is at least at my local theater the sellouts are generally the smaller auditoriums, which is why my estimates (which I have in the detailed breakdown) are a little bit smaller than that. But either way the number is amazing for a movie almost 3 weeks out.

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FlashMaster659 Box Office Gold

FlashMaster659

Posted
Posted (edited)
3 minutes ago, Ledmonkey96 said:

Jeez, at just these 218 theaters (less than 5% of the total number of theaters this will open at) and we are already at 8~mil 2.5 weeks out, if we felt like being generous and extrapolating we'd already be at a nearly 160mil OW.

~800k

Edited by FlashMaster659
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