The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Ledmonkey96]

Someone on reddit just brought up that the current record for any weekend is 305.5mil. What are the chances that Endgame makes more than that at this point?

[cdsacken]

2 minutes ago, mulderfox said:

MT

 

1. AEG 22%

2. Shazam 21.9%

3. PS 11.3%

4. Us 7.6%

5. CM 7.1%

 

still no Helboy

Wow for US, holding up so well. Hellboy is gonna flop sooooo hard.

[cdsacken]

1 minute ago, Ledmonkey96 said:

Someone on reddit just brought up that the current record for any weekend is 305.5mil. What are the chances that Endgame makes more than that at this point? 

300 is very hard but it's possible. Extra 5.5 is a bit more making it  that much hardwr. Hype is sooooooo crazy

Edited April 10, 2019 by cdsacken

[Porthos]

The theater that was down late last night is back and operational. 👍  Added 12 tickets to the final block (I had caught a few ticket sales earlier in the day when I saw a showing was added to that theater and those tickets were already part of last night's report).

 

So I just went ahead and updated the post, but I'm not going to bother re-posting it.  Can look at it here if you want to see the incremental changes.

[XXR & Friends]

5 minutes ago, Ledmonkey96 said:

Someone on reddit just brought up that the current record for any weekend is 305.5mil. What are the chances that Endgame makes more than that at this point?

 

Thats the top 12 gross from Infinity Wars opening weekend. The actual number for every film that weekend is just under $314m, so that would be the current record.

[Joyous Legion]

4 minutes ago, VenomXXR said:

 

Thats the top 12 gross from Infinity Wars opening weekend. The actual number for every film that weekend is just under $314m, so that would be the current record.

The question then shifts to be, can it beat the current record for top 12 gross?

[Stewart]

11 minutes ago, Ledmonkey96 said:

Someone on reddit just brought up that the current record for any weekend is 305.5mil. What are the chances that Endgame makes more than that at this point?

I'll copy over my response to it here:

 

Adjusting TFA's for inflation and additional theatres probably gives us an upper known limit of $325-335m.

Last weekend was $146m, so taking a 40-50% drops each week gives us a range of $19-32m.

This weekends new releases will make about 45-50m OW as per BOP, then giving 50% drops gives $11-13m.

The weekend before AEG releases should make around $38m per BOP OW, so then around $20m weekend after.

 

Therefore, we have a (rather crude) estimate of $50-65m for the weekend for holdovers. On AIW's weekend holdovers were about $48m, so not far off the same competition, though we know AEG will be getting more screen space, so perhaps holdovers will have steep drops to $45-55m.

 

This gives a possible cap for AEG between $270-290m. So without some terrible holds from holdovers, I don't see $300m coming to fruition sadly. Now, if holdovers have terrible holds and AEG gets more screen space than usual, perhaps $300m is possible, but it looks unlikely at this point.

[Deep Wang]

 

[john2000]

1 minute ago, Deep Wang said:

 

thanks for the update even though it was already posted if i recall correctly

[Deep Wang]

Shit, I looked and didn’t see it 🤔

 

My age is finally getting to me!

[Stewart]

1 minute ago, Deep Wang said:

Shit, I looked and didn’t see it 🤔

 

My age is finally getting to me!

 

It's old news by this point, over 5 hours old!

Gitesh just being late to the party, guess he slept in.

 

Edited April 10, 2019 by feasby007

[Porthos]

Detective Pikahchu has sold 20 tickets so far...

 

... in the entire Greater Sacramento region.

[Porthos]

Just now, Porthos said:

Detective Pikahchu has sold 20 tickets so far...

 

... in the entire Greater Sacramento region.

Okay, a couple of places don't have it yet, but it's fairly apparent (along with the Fandango info I already saw earlier) that this is gonna play like a traditional family film when it comes to pre-sales.  So far at least.

 

Unless I see something that radically changes my mind in the next 12 hours, I'll probably just go ahead and start tracking Pika Pika closer to release.  Maybe in a couple of weeks, right after Endgame is done. Maybe just before EG is done. We'll see.

 

Coz, like, it just ain't worth my time to track something that small this far out. 

[Mulder]

Just now, Porthos said:

Detective Pikahchu has sold 20 tickets so far...

 

... in the entire Greater Sacramento region.

From your (Imo) expert tracking opinion do you think this'll be more kid/family focused and therefore walk-up based?

[john2000]

1 minute ago, Porthos said:

Detective Pikahchu has sold 20 tickets so far...

 

... in the entire Greater Sacramento region.

in my opinion a bad date to drop the tickets better would be to wait and dropped it aroung endgame

[Stewart]

3 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Okay, a couple of places don't have it yet, but it's fairly apparent (along with the Fandango info I already saw earlier) that this is gonna play like a traditional family film when it comes to pre-sales.  So far at least.

 

Unless I see something that radically changes my mind in the next 12 hours, I'll probably just go ahead and start tracking Pika Pika closer to release.  Maybe in a couple of weeks, right after Endgame is done. Maybe just before EG is done. We'll see.

 

Coz, like, it just ain't worth my time to track something that small this far out. 

I know it may be a big ask, but would you consider doing like a bi-weekly track? Not daily but at least just something to give us a taste? 

 

I understand if not, especially when Endgame is in town.

[KP1025]

3 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Coz, like, it just ain't worth my time to track something that small this far out. 

 

That shade. 🤣

[Cappoedameron]

The movie theaters I consecutively go to are not selling tickets for the movie yet. Just AMC cause I think they're the ones that will get the "cards with the movie" deal.

Edited April 10, 2019 by Cappoedameron

[Deep Wang]

30 minutes ago, feasby007 said:

 

It's old news by this point, over 5 hours old!

Gitesh just being late to the party, guess he slept in.

 

Yup, that will do it. I was on lunch break and his was the first tweet I saw about it because it was the most recent to me 😂

[XXR & Friends]

6 minutes ago, Cappoedameron said:

The movie theaters I consecutively go to are not selling tickets for the movie yet. Just AMC cause I think they're the ones that will get the "cards with the movie" deal.

 

It’s definitely more than just AMC. When I click the link on Ryan Reynolds tweet, it has 4 different chains in my area so far (AMC, SMG, Cinemark, Xscape).