Weekend Actuals: 36.2 M ALIEN: COVENANT | 34.7 M GOTG II | 11.7 M EVERYTHING, EVERYTHING

[Mojoguy]

Not to be a debbie downer, but if A:C has the legs I'm expecting off a $36M weekend, I have doubts about the future of the franchise.

Alien franchise already survived bad movies called Alien 3, Resurrection, AvP, AvP2, and Prometheus.

This franchise keeps going and going like the Energizer Bunny.

[a2k]

With a 35 weekend, Civil War's legs will take GOTG2 to 367.

But it's going far leggier than Civil War so far...2.6x / 381 is happening imo.

Winter Soldier with great legs (2.7x) is now not the odd one out of MCU second-sequels.

[BadAtGender]

Alien Covenant DOM under Power Rangers DOM?

[Firepower]

4 hours ago, Arlborn said:

 

Of course it's not as big as Batman, only Spider-Man is. That doesn't mean it isn't big in its own way cause it is, trust me. At least in Latin America.

 

Well, Latin America is not the rest of the world.

[dxmatrixdt]

GOTG WEEKEND 4 ANALYSIS

the next defining factor for GOTG2 is how many locations will it leave next weekend?

 

Civil War was -831 for 3,395 locations.  PTA 3-day = $4535 (-41.8%).  New openers: Alice 2, X-Men: A.

 

Age of Ultron was -549 for 3,727 locations.  PTA 3-day = $5820 (-36.0%).  New openers: Tomorrowland, Poltergeist.

 

Amazing Spider-man 2 was -831 for 3,160 locations.  PTA 3-day = 2476 (-41.2%).  New openers: X-Men: DOFP, Blended.

 

Iron Man 3 was -813 for 3,424 locations.  PTA 3-day = 5644 (-33.1%).  New openers: Hangover 3, FF6, Epic.

 

Avengers was -331 for 3,918 locations.  PTA 3-day = 9364 (-28.5%).  New openers:  MiB3, Chernobyl

 

Iron Man 2 was -373 for 3,804 locations.  PTA 3-day = 4327 (-31.4%).  New openers: Sex/City2, Persia

 

Iron Man was -239 for 3,915 locations.  PTA 3-day = 5223 (-31.9%).  New openers: Indy 4(same studio)

 

Spider-Man 3 was -601 for 3,723 locations.  PTA 3-day = 3850 (-42.6%).  New openers: Pirates 3, Bug.

 

X-men 2 was -423 for 3,067 locations.  PTA 3-day = 3423 (-30.9%).  New openers: Bruce Almighty, In-Laws.

 

ANALYSIS

Baywatch 3500, Pirates 4200.

Amazing Spider-man 2 lost 831 against X-men & Blended

Iron Man 3 lost 813 against Hangover 3 and FF6+Epic

not sure Civil War is a good comparison since it was up against two 3D tentpoles, but the -831 ties ASM2 *max*

however, Ultron (-549) was still huge after holding (-50%) against Mad Max and PP2.  Baywatch should get more screens then Poltergeist though...

 

so between Ultron's -549 and IM3 -813

 

Current theater count: 4,347.

estimated 3,700 theater count is -647

Looking at average PTA drops, (-33.33333) seeems most generous.

Approx  $8,000 PTA this week.

Exactly 2/3 of 8K next week = $5,333 PTA = 19.73 3-day estimate. 

Theater count drop of 813 gives 3-day of 18.85

Theater count drop of 549 gives 3-day of 20.25

Assume this weeks PTA is slightly above 8,000.  Expect 19M next weekend min.  Likely 20M (assumin above 8,000 this week).  unlikely 21M (Pirates...)

 

4-DAY TO 3-DAY RATIO

Civil War = 1.30

Ultorn = 1.30

IM3 = 1.28

IM2 = 1.28

ASM2 = 1.28

SM3 = 1.26

 

GOTG looking at 1.3 x (20.0) = 26.0 4-day. 

 

upcoming weekdays

Smaller Monday drop (Canadian holiday), better Tuesday hold's versus comparisons (always higher Tuesday increases annually). 

0.30 x this weekend = weekdays

0.30 x 35.0M = 10.5 weekdays

 

 

FINAL NUMBERS

35.0 weekend, 301.7 total.

10.5 weekdays, 312.2 total.

20/26 Memorial weekend, 338.2 total.

 

& following Tues/Wed/Th = 0.80 X Memorial Monday = 4.8 = 343.00 total

(if it does 19 instead of 20 for upcoming 3-day, the total would be 341.46)

 

I see Wonder Woman hitting it hard going forward....

Edited May 21, 2017 by Matrix4You

[baumer]

2 hours ago, 23IsEverywhere said:

Looks good for Guardians.  It's a better jump than CA:CW.  This means that with CW numbers from this point on GOTG2 will hit $268m.  My guess would be $270m as a final number.

 

This film has never behaved like Civil War. I've been saying this since the beginning that it's more like winter soldier. Why does everybody continue to bring up Civil War?

[a2k]

16 minutes ago, DamienRoc said:

Alien Covenant DOM under Power Rangers DOM?

 

Could happen.

35.5 ow / 2.30x gives 82 dom.

If OW is 36-36.5, I still think 90 dom is tough as it would need 2.46-2.50x.

Looks like an O/U 85 affair.

[DeeCee]

On 20/05/2017 at 0:29 AM, EmpireCity said:

I think my prediction of $50m+ has a great shot at this point.  Could see it anywhere from $45m - $55m for the weekend.  

My $36m is looking good. 

Edited May 21, 2017 by DeeCee

[EmpireCity]

15 hours ago, Tele Came Back said:

 

Doesnt it seem likely that DM3 will outgross Dunkirk by at least 100m?

 

For sure, I was talking about it not being a lock for $100m

[Darth Lehnsherr]

30 minutes ago, baumer said:

 

This film has never behaved like Civil War. I've been saying this since the beginning that it's more like winter soldier. Why does everybody continue to bring up Civil War?

 

Probably because it was the last Marvel May release but your right GOTG Vol 2 is a different beast. Vol 2 is behaving like your more traditional sequel that has good reviews and WOM while Civil War despite the glowing reviews and positive audience response was always going to be very frontloaded being a film with Iron Man and most of the the other Avengers. Bigger opening but bigger drop off.

[aabattery]

6 minutes ago, DeeCee said:

My $36m is looking good. 

 

Went and checked what I put in for the summer game:

 

Quote

 

Edited May 21, 2017 by aabattery

[a2k]

Thanks to the smallish 97m budget and a 35+ ow, no one's dare gonna be snarky at Scott 

(also, his last film was bigly successful).

But Ritchie faced wrath last weekend due to a 15.7 ow for a 175m budget movie.

 

KA's reception though seems to be less mixed than A:C -

 

A:C

AUDIENCE RT 65%, avg rating 3.5/5

USER SCORE MT 6.3/10

 

KA

AUDIENCE RT 78%, avg rating 4/5

USER SCORE MT 7.8/10

Edited May 21, 2017 by a2knet

[Premium George]

That Australia to USA OW conversion system is good. Will land in that range.

[DeeCee]

The budget is due to the Australian film finance support more than anything else. 

[Krissykins]

4 hours ago, grim22 said:

3RD UPDATE, Saturday 11:25 PM: Disney/Marvel’s Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 came back strong on Saturday with an estimated $15.3M, +74% to a point where some analysts thought for a second it would overtake 20th Century Fox’s Alien: Covenant which fell 21% from Friday with $12M today. Alien: Covenant is still on top for the weekend with an estimated $36.1M, but now it’s the third highest debut in the series behind Prometheus ($51M ) and Alien vs. Predator ($38.3M). GOTG2 is just under $35M in its third weekend. Running cume is poised to be $301.7M.

 

 

CinemaScore breakdown for Covenant shows 69% males to 31% females with no one giving the sequel any As (except for 7% who gave the pic an A- for Katherine Waterson’s performance).  Fifty-nine percent bought tickets because it’s Alien movie and they gave it a B. Twenty-two percent came because of Ridley Scott, grading Covenant a B+.

 

 

MGM/Warner Bros.’ Everything, Everything dipped 9% on Saturday from Friday with $4.3M sending its opening to $11.6M. 20th Century Fox’s Snatched is next with $7.8M in fourth during its second frame for a running cume of $32.9M while Fox’s Diary of a Wimpy Kid: The Long Haul is filing fifth right now with $7.1M over three days after a $3M Saturday

 

$7.8m is pretty generous for Snatched from a $2.25m Friday. But it would be good. 

[a2k]

28 minutes ago, damnitgeorge08 said:

That Australia to USA OW conversion system is good. Will land in that range.

 

Yeah, though in Aus the movie was 20% down from PTHEUS (in it's own currency), so should convert to 40 USD (20% down from 50 of PTHEUS).

@DeeCee considered some factors to come up with 36 I think.

DeeCee, can you throw some light on why you went form 40 (estimate based on AUS) to 36?

Edited May 21, 2017 by a2knet

[CJohn]

Time to let the franchise go to sleep for a few years, FOX.

[MCKillswitch123]

GOTG V2 once again hitting the realistic ceiling for a weekend result, w/a drop in what seems will be a 47% range if that DHD result of just under 35 is correct (given the movie's trajectory, it will go up on actuals anyway). Pretty sure that makes it the 2nd best 3rd weekend hold for a MCU sequel (behind the 38% of Winter Soldier), but again, GOTG V2's opening was over 50M higher than WS's, so it evens up nicely. I wouldn't put 400M out of the deck (and despite Pirates and Baywatch, I think Memorial Day might give it another super solid hold), were it not for Wonder Woman which is gonna strike it down hard.

 

Bummer that it's not quite enough to overtake Covenant, as, if we're gonna have a #1 in a Summer weekend, that #1 better be a positive news headliner. Covenant doing only 36M is, sadly, not something I ever put out of question (Prometheus backlash + frontloadedness) and I never considered 40M OW/100M DOM a lock (except this past week, when it seemed all too likely), but nothing short of average at best. Alien Vs. Predator had a higher OW than that 13 years ago, unadjusted. Still, w/a 97M budget, and a likely 300M WW haul, it's still gonna make Fox money that they will see another sequel viable. Ridley Scott seems to be George Lucas'ing the Alien franchise (although I have yet to see Covenant but I have faith it'll be at least more entertaining than Prometheus).

 

As far as the rest goes - Everything, Everything certainly not the next Me Before You; Diary Of A Wimpy Kid treated w/the expected apathy; Snatched must've seen a solid Sat bump if it's on path to make over 7M on a 2.3M Fri... but, even w/the inflated Mother's Day OW in question, 60% drop for a movie like this is disastrous; Boss Baby, F8 and BATB all w/strong holds, and BATB is only 2M away from 500M which is phenomenal.

[DeeCee]

Prometheus performed about 50% better in Australia relative to Domestic. A:C OW dropped about 40% from Prometheus in Australia. I didn't think it would drop that much Domestic and settled on a 30% drop. Hence $36m. 

[HenryjRhetorics]

Been saying that this will be extremely frontloaded. Won't match its budget in North America. Fox will have a meeting with Ridley on Monday. And I can bet Ridley won't be pleased one bit. 

 

Too frontloaded if I may say so if it ends up with 35-36 OW

 

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