Weekend Actuals: 36.2 M ALIEN: COVENANT | 34.7 M GOTG II | 11.7 M EVERYTHING, EVERYTHING

[Maxmoser3]

1 minute ago, John Marston said:

Dark Shadows didn't do that for a movie based on a TV show no one heard of. Problem was the budget 

Yeah why a $150 million budget? Depp's paycheck? Product placement? Or agreeing to have a clothed Eva Green in the project? There's a lot of questionable things.

[grim22]

Just now, CJohn said:

He was barely in Into the Woods but he was very present in the marketing materials so it is a mixed bag. Black Mass did ok. Everything else is either a shitty indie or a MEGA BOMB.

 

Black Mass had the "Depp is back" narrative carrying it as well. Audiences love a comeback story for sure. It did less than people expected though, just turned out to not be as widely appealing as assumed.

 

I agree with @filmnerdjamiethat Pirates 5 will pay domestically for the sins of Pirates 3 and 4. However, if this turns out to be really good the next installment will benefit. Currently on Critics Choice it is actually rated at 68/100 (it started at 87/100 and kept falling). No idea how many critics have rated it to date but I expected a lot higher based on people saying it was better than 4 (4 is rated at 65 so I guess they were right)

[John Marston]

Pirates 5 has a good Fandango want to see it number, a strong marketing effort from Disney (definitely not treating it like a throwaway), good test screening reactions, and early tracking beginning of the month was 90-100m 4 day (and Disney films usually match or exceed tracking)

 

 

while I think it will decrease from 4 I think it will get over 200m

 

900m I think is the goal for another installment to be greenlit

[Noodlebug]

Hoping Covenant is slightly overestimated and Guardians takes the crown a third time.

[Noodlebug]

1 minute ago, John Marston said:

Pirates 5 has a good Fandango want to see it number, a strong marketing effort from Disney (definitely not treating it like a throwaway), good test screening reactions, and early tracking beginning of the month was 90-100m 4 day (and Disney films usually match or exceed tracking)

 

 

while I think it will decrease from 4 I think it will get over 200m

 

900m I think is the goal for another installment to be greenlit

 

Is this Johnny Depp's final outing as Sparrow? The trailers seem to imply that, but I could see Depp holding on to this franchise due to it being his only marketable venture these days.

[John Marston]

Just now, Noodlebug said:

 

Is this Johnny Depp's final outing as Sparrow? The trailers seem to imply that, but I could see Depp holding on to this franchise due to it being his only marketable venture these days.

 

 

guess it is done in a way that it can be the final movie but also have more installments if they want

[baumer]

3 hours ago, Noodlebug said:

Hoping Covenant is slightly overestimated and Guardians takes the crown a third time.

 

Impossible.

 

Not with a million dollars difference.

[Goffe]

1 minute ago, The Panda of the Caribbean said:

And if you watch Covenant, it is definitely a Prometheus sequel that also forces a few throwbacks to Alien. 

 

I have seen it and I strongly disagree.

 

It begins like Alien, humans are chased by the creature in the middle like Alien, it ends like Aliens. The few Prometheus bits are used to set up the villain, but that's all.

 

It's not a Prometheus sequel in spirit.

 

[JB33]

Wow, if those numbers hold then A: C and GotG2 will be much closer than i thought! Great 3rd weekend for Guardians!

[The Panda]

7 minutes ago, Goffe said:

I have seen it and I strongly disagree.

 

 

  Reveal hidden contents

It begins like Alien, humans are chased by the creature in the middle like Alien, it ends like Aliens. The few Prometheus bits are used to set up the villain, but that's all.

 

 

It's not a Prometheus sequel in spirit.

 

 

I mean you can personally disagree, but it appears audiences who have seen it haven't taken to it, and that's my best explanation for it.

 

(And I personally found the Alien callbacks to be rather hollow and not capturing what you'd expect from Alien)

Edited May 21, 2017 by The Panda of the Caribbean

[The Panda]

7 minutes ago, baumer said:

 

Impossible.

 

Not with a million dollars difference.

 

It's possible Guardians is underestimated and Alien is overestimated and that would lead to Guardians on top.  But it's not very likely it'll end up swapping them unless there's a half a million error in both directions.

[filmnerdjamie]

Just now, baumer said:

 

I agree with you about Pirates 5.  Depp is poison right now.  No one cares for him.  And the third and fourth film were not well received at all.  I can't predict what it will do internationally, but under 200 here seems logical.

 

Domestically, I'm thinking $150M ish. 

 

Worldwide, who the Hell knows. That marketplace has changed greatly since 2011, where the overseas love for 3D got Pirates 4 to skate to $1B where it under-performed hard stateside. One could look at Alice 2's performance for a possible indicator.

[baumer]

3 hours ago, The Panda of the Caribbean said:

 

It's possible Guardians is underestimated and Alien is overestimated and that would lead to Guardians on top.  But it's not very likely it'll end up swapping them unless there's a half a million error in both directions.

 

It would have to be a pretty big over estimation.  Alien would have to be over estimated by about 6%.  I guess it's not impossible.  

[The Panda]

Just now, baumer said:

 

It would have to be a pretty big over estimation.  Alien would have to be over estimated by about 6%.  I guess it's not impossible.  

 

Guardians was underestimated by over a million two weeks in a row, also.

 

I still wouldn't place any money on it, because usually the entire slate of movies is underestimated or overestimated together (with some exceptions).  Chances are strong Alien stays on top.

[MCKillswitch123]

2 hours ago, CJohn said:

Suicide Squad is the biggest superhero movie here since freaking Spider-Man 2 (it beat Deadpool for that honor). Let that sink in. Warner Bros. knows how to sell a movie here. The Disney team of NOS and Pris are the worst from the majors. The rest pretty much always gets their A+ game for marketing. Blade Runner is releasing here on October 5, an holiday, and Big Pictures will give it a massive push.

 

Dear fucking Christ. I can see how good WB is here. Universal might be even better though, given how successful every single one of their tentpoles is (F8 doing our equivalent of 200M OW is batshit insane... and Secret Life Of Pets' number is mindblowing too).

 

And how can NOS be that bad in the marketing, don't they have pockets of money to sell the movies they have to distribute to tons of people? Cause I don't see Disney movie ads all that often on TV, which is really odd. I actually don't remember seeing a single ad for Guardians 2.

 

Anyway, isn't Blade Runner a WB releas-oh wait, Sony distributes it OS. Well, here's hoping. Gosling coming off La La Land + Arrival director + Harrison Ford... could be a good sell here.

 

2 hours ago, alisson23 said:

His prediction was made (he persisted) after the previews numbers came out. I bet you already knew that Alien wouldn't make $ 45M+ OW when the previews number came out. What's the point of highlighting a bad prediction just because it was made by someone who has contributed to the forum in the past? Bootlicker? Elitism? It's not about likes at all.

 

No, I didn't know that. When I saw the preview number, I thought tht 40M+ OW was very likely, if not a lock. All the stars were aligning for that to be the opening number. Didn't expect it to turn out as frontloaded as it did. Made a wrong prediction... just like him, and just like a lot of people in the past, present and future. A ton of people were wrong about Alien too. Making a wrong prediction doesn't have anything to do w/"being a false God" or anything, because he's not recognized for predictions (which any human being has a 50/50 chance of getting right), he's recognized for his inside reports.

 

And as far as I know, YOU were the one who brought his prediction back into the conversation. Nobody's bootlicking or being elitist, you just clearly have a superiority complex that you're trying to show off by making yourself look better than someone famous for his useful reports in a pretty rude way, and then insulting everyone else along the way. [mod edit]

[dudalb]

Let's not forget the forest for the trees. Alien:Covenet, even if it beats out GOGT 2 for the weekend,is underperforming for a franchise as well known as the Alien Franchise. No doubt that so many  people were disappointed with Prometheus has hurt it, badly. Fox won't lose money on it, but will make at best a modest profit on a big investement.

 

[baumer]

3 hours ago, dudalb said:

Let's not forget the forest for the trees. Alien:Covenet, even if it beats out GOGT 2 for the weekend,is underperforming for a franchise as well known as the Alien Franchise. No doubt that so many  people were disappointed with Prometheus has hurt it, badly. Fox won't lose money on it, but will make at best a modest profit on a big investement.

 

 

Welcome to Friday May 19th.

[baumer]

3 hours ago, The Panda of the Caribbean said:

 

Guardians was underestimated by over a million two weeks in a row, also.

 

I still wouldn't place any money on it, because usually the entire slate of movies is underestimated or overestimated together (with some exceptions).  Chances are strong Alien stays on top.

 

For summer game purposes, it better fucking stay on top.  

[Harpospoke]

17 hours ago, Water Bottle said:

 

But the Xenomorph being dangerous is part of the story? You lose the danger, you lose the stakes? I mean if your just interested in lore, read the wiki pages.

 

I probably should elaborate.

 

Do these numbers for Alien suggest it is a franchise capable/worthy of a big budget blockbuster status?   Doesn't it kinda seem like the fanbase is relatively small and trying to shoot for blockbuster numbers is futile?

 

Not so say Xenomorphs should go away in the story, but maybe that budget could be smaller, story could rule, and there would be no need to overspend on CGI to provide popcorn audiences...who aren't going to show up...with a big body count.    It's getting to the point where we already know a group of people will encounter the Xenomorphs and all get killed save for 1 or 2 survivors.      i.e....formula.  

 

 Then the Alien fans like myself rush home and watch the theories about the story on Youtube that they didn't have room to put on the screen because it was a "horror film" with the typical tropes of that genre I've seen a hundred times before.   And if they are going to market it as a horror film, then that means it won't do more than a horror movie typically does.   ...Which isn't going to be blockbuster numbers.   Or maybe the studio thinks putting out Alien movies dressed up as horror films is bigger numbers than regular horror films?    That smaller audience wants their body count and doesn't seem to mind the cliches.    Give them the scary monster stalking victims ad infinitum and they will keep buying tickets.

 

If the real meat of the Alien story bores audiences, why try to trick them into the theater with the slasher film fakery?   Why not make movies for the small audience that is not bored with the Alien story elements?

 

I see they lowered the budget for this one.   I think they should go the Deadpool route, drop the budget down to that level where the filmmakers can have more freedom with the story and get creative where it "looks like a bigger budget on the screen".    

 

"Xenomorphs".....poor letter "X".    Feels like we have to throw that letter a bone at times and give it a word that really belongs to "Z".   No idea why that's not spelled "Zenomorphs".

[Mulder]

I do feel like Neil Blomkamp's Alien 3/5 would've attracted more interest then Covenant.