June 23-25 Weekend Thread | TF5 45M, Cars 3 24.0, Wonder Woman 24.9 (10th highest 4th weekend of all time and biggest 4th weekend of 2017)

[eddyxx]

13 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:

WEEKEND ACTUALS

1.	Transformers 5	$45,300,000
2.	Cars 3	$25,175,000
3.	Wonder Woman	$25,175,000
> VIEW FULL WEEKEND CHART

 

so this is our weekend actual..............

Wait what 

[WrathOfHan]

Just now, MikeQ said:

 

You mentioned earlier in this thread that you would want to see rationale, data, etc, to back up box office predictions. So, I ask genuinely: I'm wondering how you get a ~45% drop for Wonder Woman into next weekend? Particularly since Wonder Woman has yet to drop that much in a weekend; not even from its huge opening weekend did it drop that much, when it dropped -43.3% (its largest weekend-to-weekend drop). It just dropped under 40% from an inflated Father's Day weekend, besting Cars 3 in PTA, and I'm not sure how Independence Day works with July 4th falling on a Tuesday, but at the least I do know most Canadians will have the Monday off for our Canada Day Holiday. So, I'm just not seeing how a 45% weekend drop is likely this coming weekend.

 

Peace,

Mike

 

 

DM3 will take away a lot of the family audience.

[baumer]

Pets wont do overly well

Minions will do ok but not great

Sing looks unappealing 

 

Illumination is always under estimated here.

 

Im with u @GiantCALBears

[filmnerdjamie]

Just now, filmlover said:

No one's arguing it won't be a hit (it will). Just that it wouldn't be surprising if the numbers came back down closer to the level of the first Despicable Me than its sequel or Minions. Relax.

 

Exactly. Trends change over this kind of time-table. Shrek being the most recent example of a monster-franchise with large family audience. By the fourth film, it dipped back to the original film. Partially because the previous film was highly disliked and partially because audiences moved on or on this case, they got older.

[titanic2187]

It's nice to see TF5 drop from last entry in every country, I can't wait to see this coming, TF5 should have sink lower further....

 

I don't normally hate movie, but when I do, I hate transformers 4 and 5 and bashing it everywhere.

 

My new life motto: Cherish your life and skip TF5.....

[CJohn]

Towering 265M WW debut for TF5.

[GiantCALBears]

Pets wont do overly well
Minions will do ok but not great
Sing looks unappealing 
 
Illumination is always under estimated here.
 
Im with u @GiantCALBears

I'm not even a fan of this series but it's absurdly obvious the forum in general is meh towards Illumination.

[The Fast and the Furiosa]

2 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

DM3 will take away a lot of the family audience.

Just like Cars did 

While a good portion of its audience is younger, it still has enough of an older demographic to prevent bad drops, at least for the time being. 

 

Man of Steel dropped 45% against DM2 and Lone Ranger, but even then, that was July 5-7, so a slightly lower Friday than one would expect there

[filmnerdjamie]

Just now, baumer said:

Pets wont do overly well

Minions will do ok but not great

Sing looks unappealing 

 

Illumination is always under estimated here.

 

Im with u @GiantCALBears

 

Remember I was on the bandwagon for Pets exploding to $300M+ from the start and Minions doing what it did domestically. Sing I never bothered to put a number on (Real life stuff had my attention, to be honest).

 

And I'm telling you, good Sir, there will be a drop for DM3. 

[CJohn]

DM3 will crush the Independence Day OW record.

[filmlover]

Just now, filmnerdjamie said:

 

Exactly. Trends change over this kind of time-table. Shrek being the most recent example of a monster-franchise with large family audience. By the fourth film, it dipped back to the original film. Partially because the previous film was highly disliked and partially because audiences moved on or on this case, they got older.

I just think the marketing for DM3 hasn't presented a compelling case as to why it'll maintain the audience in full, especially when so many sequels (both live-action and animated) have been falling from their predecessors. Gru's got a twin brother that he never knew about isn't that great of a hook. If it comes close to the numbers as the last two, it'll be a huge testament to the brand power.

[grim22]

Just realized this - Wonder Woman just posted the highest 4th weekend of 2017, 2M higher than BATB's 4th weekend. It beat a movie which opened 75M higher and was one of the leggier movies of the year and which didn't have summer weekdays so the business was weekend oriented.

[MikeQ]

5 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

DM3 will take away a lot of the family audience.

 

Fair enough, but Cars 3 didn't seem to pose a problem for Wonder Woman when it dropped sub-30% on Father's Day weekend, and the film itself seems to be skewing older as far as I can tell, with nearly 70% over 25 years old:

 

http://deadline.com/2017/06/wonder-woman-captain-underpants-weekend-box-office-opening-1202106462/

 

Quote

Older women over 25 are still the predominant quad at 35%, followed by men over 25 at 33%.

 

Peace,

Mike

[Premium George]

1 minute ago, GiantCALBears said:

I'm not even a fan of this series but it's absurdly obvious the forum in general is meh towards Illumination.

'cos they don't understand it's demo. Will children think that minions was bad so they should not watch dm3? Lol.

[TwoMisfits]

30 minutes ago, GiantCALBears said:

Going to start shedding screens at a bigger rate due to TF5 still being in its opening two weeks when DM3 comes out. 

 

Nah, Mummy is likely toast...All Eyez and Rough Night, too...

[GiantCALBears]

 
Nah, Mummy is likely toast...All Eyez and Rough Night, too...

No it really will lol but whatever you say.

[Ethan Hunt]

Caught the end of Paul Blart 2 on FX

[GiantCALBears]

 
Exactly. Trends change over this kind of time-table. Shrek being the most recent example of a monster-franchise with large family audience. By the fourth film, it dipped back to the original film. Partially because the previous film was highly disliked and partially because audiences moved on or on this case, they got older.

Lol this is wrong I'm sorry, there was plenty of evidence from Shrek 3 that Minions isn't showing that Shrek 4 was going to take a substantial dip.

[GiantCALBears]

I just think the marketing for DM3 hasn't presented a compelling case as to why it'll maintain the audience in full, especially when so many sequels (both live-action and animated) have been falling from their predecessors. Gru's got a twin brother that he never knew about isn't that great of a hook. If it comes close to the numbers as the last two, it'll be a huge testament to the brand power.

Are you the target audience?

[filmlover]

Just now, GiantCALBears said:

Are you the target audience?

What's your point?