June 23-25 Weekend Thread | TF5 45M, Cars 3 24.0, Wonder Woman 24.9 (10th highest 4th weekend of all time and biggest 4th weekend of 2017)

[John Marston]

32 minutes ago, filmnerdjamie said:

There is no way there isn't any fudge in the recipe with that $69M estimate (given Paramount being... Paramount). Get the fuck outta here.

 

Also I'm with WrathofHan. I see sub-$100M for DM3 next weekend. It's a Part 3 following the tradition of the solid debut blockbuster that surprises everyone followed by the "HOLY SHIT, GET THE HELL OUTTA ITS PATH!" monster sequel. Countless examples: Batman Begins, Pirates, Shrek, First Blood, etc. The third installment always takes a dip (bigger than the original film but nowhere near the second). But the only thing is Minions (while was a spin-off/prequel) kinda served BO-wise as a third installment in that tradition (talking strictly domestically).

 

So... I have to wonder if DM3 will instead like a fourth installment, a la Shrek Forever After.

 

 

what's the point of fudging to 69m? If it was 70m then yeah

[Premium George]

Dm3 is currently 50% ahead of pets in presales at the same point before release. It's doing $350m+.

[TwoMisfits]

3 minutes ago, GiantCALBears said:

No it really will lol but whatever you say.

 

WW will have more than 3K theaters this upcoming weekend - there's no doubt.

 

The movies I mentioned (plus Captain Underpants) will be taking a substantial loss in theaters...theaters keep what's making them money...and those are not the big money makers.  WW at #2 still is...it's simple Math and simple movie draws - if every movie draws just guys but one, and you've only got 1 4 quadrant movie in theaters...what one won't really lose theaters for a long time?  This is not a trick question...

[GiantCALBears]

Just now, TwoMisfits said:

 

WW will have more than 3K theaters this upcoming weekend - there's no doubt.

 

The movies I mentioned (plus Captain Underpants) will be taking a substantial loss in theaters...theaters keep what's making them money...and those are not the big money makers.  WW at #2 still is...it's simple Math and simple movie draws - if every movie draws just guys but one, and you've only got 1 4 quadrant movie in theaters...what one won't really lose theaters for a long time?  This is not a trick question...

My point you responded to was that it will start losing screens at a higher rate and that is 100% fact. That's it, I didn't need a dissertation in why other movies will also shed theaters lol. 

[eddyxx]

1 hour ago, Black Hawk said:

Happy 3x multiplier.

 

legs:

Woah mama

[TheDarkKnightOfSteel]

Gitesh says that Wonder Woman is heading for 800M+ WW.Can this be?I think his prediction is too high.I say about 750M.Then again it has a lot of life still left both internationally(with Japan still to open) and -especially- Domestically.

[TwoMisfits]

3 minutes ago, GiantCALBears said:

My point you responded to was that it will start losing screens at a higher rate and that is 100% fact. That's it, I didn't need a dissertation in why other movies will also shed theaters lol. 

 

It lost the extra screens in theaters this weekend for Transformers for the most part...it's not losing more of them next week b/c it's only on 1-2 screens at theaters right now...so, if it already is down to 1-2 screens and it won't lose theaters, where are the big screen losses coming next weekend?  They aren't...

 

 

Edited June 25, 2017 by TwoMisfits

[WrathOfHan]

7 minutes ago, damnitgeorge08 said:

Dm3 is currently 50% ahead of pets in presales at the same point before release. It's doing $350m+.

1. The pool of theaters is double what it was in July

2. This is a sequel 

3. Reserved seating is expanding

Edited June 25, 2017 by WrathOfHan

[MrFanaticGuy34]

25 minutes ago, baumer said:

@filmnerdjamie I don't think it's fudge by Paramount this time. We have gotten numbers from Asgard all weekend and he corroborates the 69 million dollar weekend. Also Despicable Me 3 is going to make a massive amount of money because everyone loves the minions and Despicable Me and illumination is on a hot streak right now. Sorry bro but I disagree with you one hundred percent this time on both of your takes.

This.

 

Plus that both Pets & Sing made more than the first DM, DOM-wise.

 

I think Illumination is a far stronger animation-brand when they do their marketing right.

[GiantCALBears]

I think the marketing for DM3 has been on point. They know exactly who their audience is and make sure people outside of the core know it's coming. Much better than it's been for any of the other animated films this summer. 

[nomyth]

7 minutes ago, TheDarkKnightOfSteel said:

Gitesh says that Wonder Woman is heading for 800M+ WW.Can this be?I think his prediction is too high.I say about 750M.Then again it has a lot of life still left both internationally(with Japan still to open) and -especially- Domestically.

After this weekend, I'm thinking it falls just short of 800. Around 780-790. I doubt it makes more than 15M in Japan, so I would guess its final international total will be around 390. I still think it can leg out to 400 DOM. It'll definitely be close but I'm not sure if it can quite hit the mark.

Edited June 25, 2017 by nomyth

[Premium George]

4 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

1. The pool of theaters is double what it was in July

2. This is a sequel 

3. Reserved seating is expanding

People said the same thing for WW and gotg 2 and yet they performed similar to how presales pointed. And yes tf5 happened.

As for it being a sequel, I will admit I am optimistic about it's legs.

[eXtacy]

6 minutes ago, TheDarkKnightOfSteel said:

Gitesh says that Wonder Woman is heading for 800M+ WW.Can this be?I think his prediction is too high.I say about 750M.Then again it has a lot of life still left both internationally(with Japan still to open) and -especially- Domestically.

 

No it does not seem likely. Spiderman should take some of the wind out of sales unfortunately.

[MrFanaticGuy34]

37 minutes ago, filmnerdjamie said:

 

Remember I was on the bandwagon for Pets exploding to $300M+ from the start and Minions doing what it did domestically. Sing I never bothered to put a number on (Real life stuff had my attention, to be honest).

 

And I'm telling you, good Sir, there will be a drop for DM3. 

True, there could be a drop for DM3. I just don't think it drops too much though. $290-300M is the safest it could go.

 

Also, the lowest grosser in the DM-franchise is still the first one with $251M DOM back in 2010. Granted, that was Illumination's first animated film.

 

And both Pets & Sing made more than DM1.

 

Pets = $368.4M

Sing = $270M

 

Since Captain Underpants & Cars 3 didn't break out as much as they needed, this could be the first one that families are starving for since Dreamworks's The Boss Baby. Maybe that's why they're saving their money for DM3, instead of spending it on TF5.

 

Also....it could be one of the better animated threequels along with Kung Fu Panda 3 & Madagascar 3: Europe's Most Wanted in terms of quailty.

 

Edited June 25, 2017 by MrFanaticGuy34

[efialtes76]

25 minutes ago, damnitgeorge08 said:

Dm3 is currently 50% ahead of pets in presales at the same point before release. It's doing $350m+.

Summer vs Christmas

Sequel vs Original

Not a fair comparison...

[Maxmoser3]

Box Office Mojo's report made a boo-boo. The report says Wonder Woman surpassed BVS domestic already. That won't happen until later this week. 

[ZeeSoh]

That can't be right can it? Why did it hold so well despite losing lots of theatres?

 

12

(12)

Baywatch

Paramount Pictures

$1,458,000

-9%

480

$3,038

$57,365,889

32

[commonsense88]

35 minutes ago, filmlover said:

I just think the marketing for DM3 hasn't presented a compelling case as to why it'll maintain the audience in full, especially when so many sequels (both live-action and animated) have been falling from their predecessors. Gru's got a twin brother that he never knew about isn't that great of a hook. If it comes close to the numbers as the last two, it'll be a huge testament to the brand power.

So you will put your personal perception of marketing before presales, tracking,  anticipation, critical reception and data,

Ok

 

[commonsense88]

1 minute ago, Maxmoser3 said:

Box Office Mojo's report made a boo-boo. The report says Wonder Woman surpassed BVS domestic already. That won't happen until later this week. 

Base on  day to day comparison, not total run 

[franfar]

DM3 will get like 120m OW