5-day Weekend #s: DM3 99M, BD 29.97M, WW 24.07M, TF5 24.05M, Cars 3 14.2M, House 11.9M

[DMan7]

3 minutes ago, Barnack said:

 

Phantom Menace would be that I think in 1999 the DVD took of around 2001, Phantom Menace did 72% of what Titanic did. By comparing to movie released in the movie era you get pretty much rid of all the thing that changed between era, and Titanic dominating every movie of is era, like Star Wars did, like ET, like Gone with the Wind. It achieved to get in theater people that didn't went for decades of all ages and all types.

 

Force Awaken is not that far from Titanic, Avatar made 79% of what Force Awaken did, Titanic was a bit bigger but those 2 are in the same category and comparable imo.

 

In term of pure money inflation Titanic first release made about $886.04 million in 2015 dollar.

 

In 1997 the US (272.6) + Canada (29.99) population was 302.59 million

In 2015 the US (321.4) + Canada (35.85) population was 357.25 million

 

adjusted by capita and inflation (not ticket just purchasing power), Titanic run was about 1046 million, bigger than Awaken 936m but not by a being in a different category amount.

We gotta also look at the 3D factor and theater counts which Titantic didn't have compared to TFA as well which could widen that gap alot further.

[AHepBurn]

I think one of the big things that people need to take from the box office performances of blockbusters in this period is that novelty really makes a much bigger impact than reviews right now. Reviews are good for increasing or decreasing a tentpole's potential but novelty is really where the watermark is set as for overall box office performances.

 

Since we're still in the DC movie conversation, BvS and SS did well overall because the novelty factor was so high but the overall gains were muted. WW had an initial trepidation to it due to the female lead but still had a really good novelty factor that the later reviews and audience acceptance later really boosted. This is one of the reasons why I think Aquaman will still hit $100mil OW and $700mil WW, as I seems to be the level of interest that franchise is at.

 

And this blockbuster season is basically littered with franchises that have failed largely in part because I believe the audience is simply tired of them. Transformers have always had bad reviews yet the novelty and demand for them was so high that their box office defied expectations until now. Pirates, Cars, and Despicable Me are also all in retread territory. Franchises like Alien Covenant that had good reviews were simply DOA because nobody really wants or cares about the franchise at the moment.

 

And then you have things like live-action Disney remakes which seem to be the in-demand thing right now as well as a Star Wars resurgence. Same for the Fast franchise, which has always gotten bad to decent reviews but has high demand. We've talked about how the Marvel audience hasn't really been growing but just maintaining for the past few years. And that shows in GotG2's performance, which got good reviews and acceptance but only had a relatively okay increase over the first because the novelty factor just isn't at the same sort of level.

 

It's a situation that favors studios that have a deep IP catalog like Disney and WB and it'll be interesting to see what IPs can hit even in the short term. Jurassic World hit big because it was a big novelty at the time and because of that I'm somewhat pessimistic about the chances for the sequel's success. Same with the Deadpool sequel.

[a2k]

16 minutes ago, CalifoBoy said:

 

When you say "390M total" you're already including the fact that this movie will have great legs by the end of it's run?!

390m dom does not need that great legs.

It should be around ~359 by Thu. 8.5m weekend (drop of 46%) could give it 367.5.

2.5x the weekend more gives 367.5 + 21.25 = ~389 dom.

2.5x the 6th weekend is good, not great late legs (especially as we are deflating that weekend due to competition from Spidey).

Great late legs would mean 395+.

Edited July 5, 2017 by a2knet

[baumer]

51 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:

given strong monday and tuesday, even it drop 30% on wednesday and another 15% on thrusday, it will still get $2.4m on thrusday, in order for WW to drop more than 50% against SMH's opening, I couldn't imagine how low it would be needed for the friday increase of WW....

 

Films will drop about 50% or more today.

[titanic2187]

6 minutes ago, Barnack said:

 

Phantom Menace would be that I think in 1999 the DVD took of around 2001, Phantom Menace did 72% of what Titanic did. By comparing to movie released in the movie era you get pretty much rid of all the thing that changed between era, and Titanic dominating every movie of is era, like Star Wars did, like ET, like Gone with the Wind. It achieved to get in theater people that didn't went for decades of all ages and all types.

 

Force Awaken is not that far from Titanic, Avatar made 79% of what Force Awaken did, Titanic was a bit bigger but those 2 are in the same category and comparable imo.

 

In term of pure money inflation Titanic first release made about $886.04 million in 2015 dollar.

 

In 1997 the US (272.6) + Canada (29.99) population was 302.59 million

In 2015 the US (321.4) + Canada (35.85) population was 357.25 million

 

adjusted by capita and inflation (not ticket just purchasing power), Titanic run was about 1046 million, bigger than Awaken 936m but not by a being in a different category amount.

Titanic's legs was too amazing and rare even by 1990's standard, 20x multiplier with much more higher opening figure($28.6m) was just insane, don't forget it was the 1st movie to reach $400m,$500m and $600m

 

Not to discount the achievement for TFA, but it took lesser "effort" for TFA to achieve that $936m historical figure, $936m in just NA was crazy, not to far from the hobbit3 WW gross. It's like the entire worldwide audience for hobbit 3 came to USA just to watch TFA!

[Barnack]

7 minutes ago, DMan7 said:

We gotta also look at the 3D factor and theater counts which Titantic didn't have compared to TFA as well which could widen that gap alot further.

 

 

https://www.statista.com/statistics/188643/number-of-us-cinema-sites-since-1995/

With the number of theater that went down not up, theater count probably affected weekend number size, but maybe not total run total (in the sense that maybe more theater played the movie in is run, not just at the same time, limited by the prints count), I really do not know:

1997: 7480

2015: 5833

 

Adjusted by population size probably take care of that in some way. 3D factor is one valid element I would think.

 

 

3 minutes ago, AHepBurn said:

I think one of the big things that people need to take from the box office performances of blockbusters in this period is that novelty really makes a much bigger impact than reviews right now. Reviews are good for increasing or decreasing a tentpole's potential but novelty is really where the watermark is set as for overall box office performances.

 

 

I think the new Ape would be a good indicator of your theory, if it open below the previous entry it could be explained by looking a bit similar to the previous entry of the franchise, while the sequel had a totally different look and setting than the first one.

[titanic2187]

3 minutes ago, baumer said:

 

Films will drop about 50% or more today.

I hope it won't based on 2006's wednesday, and especially in the case of Wonder woman, 40% would be my target 

[AniNate]

A novel movie with bad reviews will almost certainly be a flop, though. The rewards can be a lot greater but so can the losses.

[cannastop]

2 minutes ago, tribefan695 said:

A novel movie with bad reviews will almost certainly be a flop, though. The rewards can be a lot greater but so can the losses.

[CalifoBoy]

8 minutes ago, a2knet said:

390m dom does not need that great legs.

It should be around ~359 by Thu. 8.5m weekend (drop of 46%) could give it 367.5.

2.5x the weekend more gives 367.5 + 21.25 = ~389 dom.

2.5x the 6th weekend is good, not great late legs (especially as we are deflating that weekend due to competition from Spidey).

Great late legs would mean 395+.

 

I still think WB will push it through the $400M club and many still believe it has a chance of doing so. Let's how much it will drop in the next few days.

[JennaJ]

24 minutes ago, AHepBurn said:

We've talked about how the Marvel audience hasn't really been growing but just maintaining for the past few years. And that shows in GotG2's performance, which got good reviews and acceptance but only had a relatively okay increase over the first because the novelty factor just isn't at the same sort of level.

 

It's a situation that favors studios that have a deep IP catalog like Disney and WB and it'll be interesting to see what IPs can hit even in the short term. Jurassic World hit big because it was a big novelty at the time and because of that I'm somewhat pessimistic about the chances for the sequel's success. Same with the Deadpool sequel.

 

In my view GotG increasing from 333m to around 390m is not "a relatively okay increase". A lot of break outs don't actually increase at all with their sequel, so I'd say GotG 2 performed very nicely, no qualifiers needed. It's certainly not the first movie I'd use as proof that the MCU's audience isn't growing. I'd probably go to CW for that, or any other movie that actually requires watching a bunch of previous installments to know what's going on.

 

How much do you see the JW2 and Deadpool 2 doing? I mean I see both declining, but I still think both will be pretty darn successful (I see JW2 winning 2018, for instance).

 

Edited July 5, 2017 by JennaJ

[a2k]

War of Apes is the big test for Tomato Law.

[Bonenash]

imo in the 80's amazing run are E.T beverly cops Fatal attraction from what i remenber.

 

90's  hmm Home alone yeah this one was insane Titanic of course Six sense Phantom menace and Blair witch project.

 

2000's and after i don't want to do it   avatar  and some others

 

2010's Imo in france it was The intouchables of course very good film and it did very well os too

 

 

 

[Zakiyyah6]

The 2010's are a different period. I don't compare them to the past because a 2010 run will almost always lose.

[a2k]

		Movie	Distributor	Gross	Change	Thtrs.	Per Thtr.	Total Gross	Days
-	(-)	47 Meters Down	Entertainment Studi…	$879,158	-16%	2,250	$391	$34,350,297	19

[cannastop]

3 minutes ago, Bonenash said:

2000's and after i don't want to do it  

What about Bienvenue chez les Ch'tis?

[Bonenash]

6 minutes ago, cannastop said:

What about Bienvenue chez les Ch'tis?

 

 

Yeah this one i m not proud of it

 

It's a film that appeal to the middle france like middle america very good public but way way way way inferior to intouchables

 

 

[Wrath]

Not to get off on a tangent, but when do weekend actuals wrap up?

[cannastop]

7 minutes ago, Wrath said:

Not to get off on a tangent, but when do weekend actuals wrap up?

I'm guessing it will be the time we usually get weekday actuals.

 

So about 4pm Eastern Time.

[MikeQ]

3 hours ago, baumer said:

 

You know what?  I was actually not aware of this.  That's truly incredible that GOTG did that.  Thanks for pointing it out.

 

Yep! Once Wonder Woman hits ~$365 million it will be the leggiest live action comic book film of the 21st century, beating out Guardians of the Galaxy's 3.53 multiplier from 2014, which itself beat Spider-Man's 3.52 multiplier from 12 years earlier in 2002. Once Wonder Woman hits ~$369 million, it will be the leggiest $40+ million opening comic book film since Batman in 1989. (This is among Friday openers only, obviously -- those few dratted weekday openers aren't comparable, unfortunately.)

 

If Wonder Woman can hit $391 million (or higher) for its total domestic gross, it will have the 6th best multiplier of ANY film that opened to $70+ million (Friday openers only):

 

Best Multipliers Ever for $70+ Million Opening Films:

1. Avatar (2009) — 77.0 million (9.73) 
2. Finding Nemo (2003) — 70.3 million (4.84)
3. Zootopia (2016) — 75.1 million (4.55)
4. Inside Out (2015) — 90.4 million (3.94)
5. American Sniper (2015) — 89.3 million (3.92)
6. Wonder Woman (2017) — 103.3 million (3.79+) — IF IT CAN HIT $391M
7. Star Wars: The Force Awakens (2015) — 248.0 million (3.78)
8. Toy Story 3 (2010) — 110.3 million (3.76)
9. The Incredibles (2004) — 70.5 million (3.71)
10. Finding Dory (2016) — 135.1 million (3.60)

Wonder Woman will have achieved this off a $100+ million opening weekend in the summer. Phenomenal stuff. Even if it falls short, it will still be in the top 10.

 

As can be seen, the list is dominated by animated films. Of the films with better multipliers than Wonder Woman (presuming it can hit $391M), three are animated films, one is Avatar (at #1 with its incredible juggernaut of a performance), and the other is American Sniper with its patriotic dominance. 

 

I have the full list of multipliers for the 101 films that have ever opened to $70+ million, in order of opening weekend gross, for those who are interested.

 

Peace,

Mike

Edited July 5, 2017 by MikeQ