5-day Weekend #s: DM3 99M, BD 29.97M, WW 24.07M, TF5 24.05M, Cars 3 14.2M, House 11.9M

[baumer]

3 hours ago, FantasticBeasts said:

I think that My Big Fat Greek Wedding deserves at least a Top 5.

The only thing that this movie had for it was how well it was liked by audiences.

It is incredible how huuuge it ended up being.

 

Yep, it was a WOM monster.

[cannastop]

13 minutes ago, Mojoguy said:

That feels too much like another Rough Night.

Nah. I think the general audience is much more excited for Girls Trip.

Edited July 5, 2017 by cannastop

[fmpro]

Homecoming has huuuuuge OD in South Korea

[titanic2187]

given strong monday and tuesday, even it drop 30% on wednesday and another 15% on thrusday, it will still get $2.4m on thrusday, in order for WW to drop more than 50% against SMH's opening, I couldn't imagine how low it would be needed for the friday increase of WW....

[Cochofles]

43 minutes ago, AHepBurn said:

So the Wonder Woman over GotG2 domestic possibility grows stronger every day. What a year. That only cherry on top at this point would be if she takes home another Oscar for DC/WB.

 

Lindy Hemming will get an Oscar nomination (Best Costume Design) for Wonder Woman...

[Mojoguy]

Shame that Big Fat Greek Wedding 2 fell back to Earth.

Movie legs aren't what they used to be.

[PhantomX1313]

There's absolutely no way this Wonder Woman train stops before 400M now

Edited July 5, 2017 by PhantomX1313

[Mojoguy]

The thing about female audiences, outside of fangirl stuff like Twilight, is that they take their sweet time before they go see movies in theaters so female focused movies tend to have the best legs.

So this is kind of great news for Wonder Woman! Plenty of females still going to see the movie!

Edited July 5, 2017 by Mojoguy

[Elessar]

47 minutes ago, baumer said:

 

The opposite.  July 4th is not a good movie going day in the US.  If it was a normal day, then WW and every film would have gone up by 25-40%.  

 

Since when is July 4th not inflated? As great a run WW is having, it wouldn't have grossed more this TUE than last TUE if it wasn't for the Holiday.

[PanaMovie]

Is a sub 40% drop possible for WW this weekend?

 

[Gustavo]

At least in Latin America , Aquaman is well know, not saying he is a fan favorite, but everyone knows about him

[The Fast and the Furiosa]

5 minutes ago, Elessar said:

 

Since when is July 4th not inflated? As great a run WW is having, it wouldn't have grossed more this TUE than last TUE if it wasn't for the Holiday.

You're right that it is inflated a bit, though not as much a typical holiday for Box Office. Look back on any July 4th that hit the weekend and you see that the bigger impact is on the days surrounding the holiday, not the holiday itself 

[grim22]

14 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:

given strong monday and tuesday, even it drop 30% on wednesday and another 15% on thrusday, it will still get $2.4m on thrusday, in order for WW to drop more than 50% against SMH's opening, I couldn't imagine how low it would be needed for the friday increase of WW....

 

It will drop at least 40% on Wednesday. Thursday might be lower drop comparatively as it isn't giving up a lot of its showtimes to SMH, those are coming from IMAX, PLF and Pirates/Guardians/The Mummy. But give it worst case and say 20% drop. That gives us a baseline of 1.7M to work from. In 2006, Friday increases were 50-60% and Saturday was 25-30% with a 25% drop on Sunday.

 

But let's say SMH hurts it as hard as Pirates killed Superman Returns, which is 35% increase on Friday and 25% on Saturday.

 

So going with the worst case (50% drop tomorrow, 20% on Thursday, 35% increase on Friday, 25% on Saturday) we get 

 

1.7M Thursday

2.25M Friday

2.9M Saturday

2.2M Sunday for a 7.5M weekend which would be just over a 50% drop.

[Barnack]

59 minutes ago, a2knet said:

Titanic's run will always be unique. Nothing matches it - legs or final number - not even TFA once you consider what 600m meant in 1998-99.

 

Titanic run look a lot like ET runs, not sure about unique there is at least 3 other movie in that category.

 

Gone With the Wind, first Star Wars, ET, and maybe a couple of others, with very similar run (in term of market share of their respective era)

 

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/alltime/weekends/bestranked.htm?page=WKNDSAT10&p=.htm

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/alltime/weekends/bestranked.htm?page=WKNDSCAT10&p=.htm

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/alltime/weekends/bestranked.htm?page=WKNDSAT5&p=.htm

[Elessar]

6 minutes ago, The Fast and the Furiosa said:

You're right that it is inflated a bit, though not as much a typical holiday for Box Office. Look back on any July 4th that hit the weekend and you see that the bigger impact is on the days surrounding the holiday, not the holiday itself 

 

I haven't checked how July 4th compares to a normal FRI, SAT or SUN but it's definitely more potent than a normal midweek day box office wise. That's all i'm saying.

[titanic2187]

7 minutes ago, grim22 said:

 

It will drop at least 40% on Wednesday. Thursday might be lower drop comparatively as it isn't giving up a lot of its showtimes to SMH, those are coming from IMAX, PLF and Pirates/Guardians/The Mummy. But give it worst case and say 20% drop. That gives us a baseline of 1.7M to work from. In 2006, Friday increases were 50-60% and Saturday was 25-30% with a 25% drop on Sunday.

 

But let's say SMH hurts it as hard as Pirates killed Superman Returns, which is 35% increase on Friday and 25% on Saturday.

 

So going with the worst case (50% drop tomorrow, 20% on Thursday, 35% increase on Friday, 25% on Saturday) we get 

 

1.7M Thursday

2.25M Friday

2.9M Saturday

2.2M Sunday for a 7.5M weekend which would be just over a 50% drop.

finding dory up only 7% from thrusday to friday and SLOP opened big last year, hope it won't repeat here, but I'm thinking 40% drop on wednesday be more realistic, 50% was too harsh but even it turn out to be true, it still a wednesday that drop just sub-30% from last week.....

[efialtes76]

31 minutes ago, fmpro said:

Homecoming has huuuuuge OD in South Korea

300K admissions LESS than The Mummy...

It's a joke.500K+ is a very good number.

[CalifoBoy]

1 hour ago, a2knet said:

I think 385+ is 100% (it's gonna be close to 360 by Thursday. So only 25 odd away from 385).

390+ is 75%.

395+ is 50%.

400+ is 35% (this % seems high but if it does 395+ WB is likely to push it over 400. So have inflated the %. 395+ might mean neraly same as 400+ if WB is in milestone-mood)

 

 

When you say "390M total" you're already including the fact that this movie will have great legs by the end of it's run?!

[Barnack]

6 hours ago, baumer said:

 

I love Titanic.  And the run it went on is incredible.  But to be fair, it's a completely different era.  It was the last big run before DVD really came into its own.  So I'm taking nothing away from what it did, but that was 20 years ago.  A lot has changed since then.

 

Phantom Menace would be that I think in 1999 the DVD took of around 2001, Phantom Menace did 72% of what Titanic did. By comparing to movie released in the movie era you get pretty much rid of all the thing that changed between era and Titanic dominated every movies of is era, like Star Wars did, like ET, like Gone with the Wind, like Force Awaken. It achieved to get in theater people that didn't went for decades of all ages and all types.

 

Force Awaken is not that far from Titanic, Avatar made 79% of what Force Awaken did, Titanic was a bit bigger but those 2 are in the same category and comparable imo.

 

In term of pure money inflation Titanic first release made about $886.04 million in 2015 dollar.

 

In 1997 the US (272.6) + Canada (29.99) population was 302.59 million

In 2015 the US (321.4) + Canada (35.85) population was 357.25 million

 

adjusted by capita and inflation (not ticket just purchasing power), Titanic run was about 1046 million, bigger than Awaken 936m but not by a being in a different category amount.

Edited July 5, 2017 by Barnack

[nomyth]

WW made a significant dent in SM's lead the last 2 days. It is now just 2.5M behind. It'll make up some more ground today and tomorrow before likely falling a bit behind on the weekend again. Spidey's 6th weekend was 10.3M. Not impossible but I'm banking on something closer to 8.5M. I expect WW will be trailing by about 3M after the weekend.