Asgard blesses us early. SMH 7.4, Apes 7.1, WW 1.2M Tues

[TwoMisfits]

1 hour ago, Jayhawk said:

Another incredible jump for DM3.

 

Probably $216M for DM3 by Sunday/Monday, disproving all the folks who said it would be sub 3.0x as a certainty after OW...so how high can late legs take it if Emoji crashes and burns?  Could it still have an outside chance at getting close to $300M?  It's gonna run through Labor Day (and probably beyond) - can it start having 30% drops on weekends and just hang on all month?

 

PS - This is another movie that has benefited HUGELY by timing and circumstance - non existent competition for the 6 and under dollars and only a few movies competing for the family dollars of the 12 and unders...and a wide open 2 months of summer weekdays...we'll see what I think of it in a few hours:)...

[TwoMisfits]

1 minute ago, damnitgeorge08 said:

ant man will not do avengers opening even you change their release date. same for Wondy and spiderman. As I said wondy's fourth w/e will beat spidey's third w/e. You can say release date, competition and all, give spiderman father's day and yet it will not do $40m this w/e. This is not about how I feel about movies, this is about a stupid comment you made.

 

No, WW and GOTG 2 benefited by having pretty much zippo competition each for a month...there's no doubt about that...saying competition and timing has zero effect is the "stupid comment."

 

Why do you think I knew pre-summer how WW would do - b/c all you had to do was look at the calendar...if she was good (and she was - that was the uncertain variable), she had a free ride for 2 full quadrants of viewers...

[Jayhawk the Hutt]

Just now, TwoMisfits said:

 

Probably $216M for DM3 by Sunday/Monday, disproving all the folks who said it would be sub 3.0x as a certainty after OW...so how high can late legs take it if Emoji crashes and burns?  Could it still have an outside chance at getting close to $300M?  It's gonna run through Labor Day (and probably beyond) - can it start having 30% drops on weekends and just hang on all month?

 

PS - This is another movie that has benefited HUGELY by timing and circumstance - non existent competition for the 6 and under dollars and only a few movies competing for the family dollars of the 12 and unders...and a wide open 2 months of summer weekdays...we'll see what I think of it in a few hours:)...

I think $300m is very unlikely. As you say, it doesn't have much competition, but nothing indicates Zootopia like legs.

[Finnick]

SMH SLIGHTLY HIGHER WITH ACTUALS, APES TOO, DPM3, 51% UP!!!!

 

		Movie	Distributor	Gross	Change	Thtrs.	Per Thtr.	Total Gross	Days
1	(2)	Spider-Man: Homecoming	Sony Pictures	$7,536,245	+38%	4,348	$1,733	$220,267,368	12
2	(1)	War for the Planet of the Apes	20th Century Fox	$7,147,241	+23%	4,022	$1,777	$69,197,526	5
3	(3)	Despicable Me 3	Universal	$3,995,335	+51%	4,155	$962	$195,041,185	19
4	(4)	Baby Driver	Sony Pictures	$1,620,924	+36%	3,043	$533	$75,932,171	21
-	(5)	Wonder Woman	Warner Bros.	$1,195,276	+37%	2,744	$436	$382,673,953	47
-	(6)	The Big Sick	Lionsgate	$1,108,696	+44%	2,597	$427	$17,877,563	26
-	(7)	Cars 3	Walt Disney	$670,248	+46%	2,049	$327	$141,112,481	33
-	(8)	Transformers: The Last Knight	Paramount Pictures	$491,160	+34%	2,323	$211	$125,810,515	28
-	(9)	The House	Warner Bros.	$333,655	+35%	1,633	$204	$23,647,763	19
-	(10)	47 Meters Down	Entertainment Studi…	$214,791	+18%	1,032	$208	$41,533,400	33
-	(11)	The Beguiled	Focus Features	$162,915	+39%	726	$224	$9,674,094	26
-	(12)	Pirates of the Caribbean: D…	Walt Disney	$104,756	+31%	448	$234	$170,231,966	54
-	(13)	Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 2	Walt Disney	$95,112	+21%	399	$238	$386,745,538	75

Edited July 19, 2017 by Finnick

[TwoMisfits]

2 minutes ago, Jayhawk said:

I think $300m is very unlikely. As you say, it doesn't have much competition, but nothing indicates Zootopia like legs.

 

It's really gonna come down to how good/bad Emoji and Nut Job 2 are...but I think NJ2's a done deal to the negative...if they just die like Ice Age 5 last summer, it keeps a clear path for all August weekday dollars to DM3...

 

Edited July 19, 2017 by TwoMisfits

[YM!]

$7.5M is even better jump.

[Premium George]

4 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

 

No, WW and GOTG 2 benefited by having pretty much zippo competition each for a month...there's no doubt about that...saying competition and timing has zero effect is the "stupid comment."

 

Why do you think I knew pre-summer how WW would do - b/c all you had to do was look at the calendar...if she was good (and she was - that was the uncertain variable), she had a free ride for 2 full quadrants of viewers...

No I am not saying competition and timing has zero effect. i am saying shm would not have done wondy like legs in any situation.

[Jayhawk the Hutt]

Wow even better for Spidey than expected. That's a legit impressive jump, down less than 50% from last Tuesday (just barely, but still).

Edited July 19, 2017 by Jayhawk

[grey ghost]

1 hour ago, filmnerdjamie said:

 

I don't think Kingsman 2 will help matters either.

 

Yup, any sequel to a break out hit has to overcome the "lost novelty" factor.

 

Ted 2 popped in my head for some reason. 

[TwoMisfits]

4 minutes ago, damnitgeorge08 said:

No I am not saying competition and timing has zero effect. i am saying shm would not have done wondy like legs in any situation.

 

No, but no one ever said WW legs...to tie WW, it never even needed WW legs...female-pulling movies almost always have longer legs...that's no brainer stuff...

 

I said $375-$400M pre-summer...at this point, I think it's not gonna quite get that high, but after OW, I bet $325M for its legs...that's the number I'm looking for it to surpass...it's completely arbitrary, but something I think late summer might make possible...and having 3 supers all over $300M+ in one summer is fantastic (and hopefully 4 if DM3 makes it, since it's an honorary supers movie:)...

 

Edited July 19, 2017 by TwoMisfits

[Premium George]

1 minute ago, TwoMisfits said:

 

No, but no one ever said WW legs...to tie WW, it never even needed WW legs...female-pulling movies almost always have longer legs...that's no brainer stuff...

 

I said $375-$400M pre-summer...at this point, I think it's not gonna quite get that high, but after OW, I bet $325M for its legs...that's the number I'm looking for it to surpass...it's completely arbitrary, but something I think late summer might make possible...and having 3 supers all over $300M+ in one summer is fantastic (and hopefully 4 is DM3 makes it:)...

 

OK, you missed the point. I am not saying anything about shm legs. a2knet compared shm and wondy w/e to show how incredible wondy did. you said they can't be compared. Will you say the same thing if the force awakens and the dark knight OW are compared? 

[TwoMisfits]

2 minutes ago, damnitgeorge08 said:

OK, you missed the point. I am not saying anything about shm legs. a2knet compared shm and wondy w/e to show how incredible wondy did. you said they can't be compared. Will you say the same thing if the force awakens and the dark knight OW are compared? 

 

You wanna compare a Star Wars weekend with a supers weekend?  Yeah, no...I wouldn't compare those either...2 totally different fan bases...

 

Star Wars fans are the most committed fan base there is...and it's a single product fan base - there's no DC/Marvel, Supes vs Bats, etc...it's one thing - Star Wars...

 

So, I wouldn't compare those, either...(and I used to be one of those nutty FANS til they turned all their old novels into "legacy" or something out of continuity...now I'm just a "fan":)...

Edited July 19, 2017 by TwoMisfits

[Brainbug]

6 minutes ago, grey ghost said:

 

Yup, any sequel to a break out hit has to overcome the "lost novelty" factor.

 

Ted 2 popped in my head for some reason. 

 

John Wick 2 managed it, i really hope Kingsman can do atleast the same numbers as the first. And yes, i remember the 200M+ predictions for Ted 2

[XO21]

Let's hope after taking another 50something% hit Spidey can stabilize

 

Crazy jump for DM3

Edited July 19, 2017 by XO21

[Premium George]

2 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

 

You wanna compare a Star Wars weekend with a supers weekend?  Yeah, no...I wouldn't compare those either...2 totally different fan bases...

 

Star Wars fans are the most committed fan base there is...and it's a single product fan base - there's no DC/Marvel, Supes vs Bats, etc...it's one thing - Star Wars...

 

So, I wouldn't compare those, either...(and I used to be one of those nutty FANS til they turned all their old novels into "legacy" or something out of continuity...now I'm just a "fan":)...

You do understand how a2knet conpared them right? 

By conparing tfa and avengers OW you understand that how magnificent that OW was. By comparing AVENGERS OW and the dark knight ow you see how crazy that was.

That's what a2knet was trying to saw. That Wonder Woman conpared to a normal cbm run is  crazy.

[a2k]

22 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

 

Probably $216M for DM3 by Sunday/Monday, disproving all the folks who said it would be sub 3.0x as a certainty after OW...so how high can late legs take it if Emoji crashes and burns?  Could it still have an outside chance at getting close to $300M?  It's gonna run through Labor Day (and probably beyond) - can it start having 30% drops on weekends and just hang on all month?

 

PS - This is another movie that has benefited HUGELY by timing and circumstance - non existent competition for the 6 and under dollars and only a few movies competing for the family dollars of the 12 and unders...and a wide open 2 months of summer weekdays...we'll see what I think of it in a few hours:)...

 

If DM3 adds 3.5x the 3rd weekend gross (19m) to it's cume (was at 189m after the 3rd weekend) it will do ~255.

That should be around the high-end. Feel 245-250 will happen.

Edited July 19, 2017 by a2knet

[Premium George]

Just now, XO21 said:

Let's hope after taking another 50something% hit Spidey can stabilize

Seeing this tuesday I think it has started stabilizing. Anything under 55% will be good.

[JohnnyGossamer]

8 minutes ago, Brainbug said:

 

John Wick 2 managed it, i really hope Kingsman can do atleast the same numbers as the first. And yes, i remember the 200M+ predictions for Ted 2

Yup. And, Guardians Vol. 2 followed a breakout and still managed to gross nearly $60M more than Vol. 1. I don't know about Kingsman 2 breaking out but I do think it will do more than Kingsman. I'm more so expecting 15% to 20% increase - GotGV2 increase from GotGV1. That seems pretty realistic to me.

Edited July 19, 2017 by JohnnyGossamer

[TwoMisfits]

1 minute ago, damnitgeorge08 said:

That Wonder Woman conpared to a normal cbm run is  crazy.

 

Okay, well, maybe I take that point as obvious, since WW was never a normal CBM.  I pointed that out right after her OW (probably to deaf ears)...so I guess you all are agreeing now with what I found obvious.  It was never going to run like a male-quadrant-dominated super b/c it's not, so comparing it to all the previous MCU/DCU ones made for bad comparisons...which I said at the time.

 

It's so funny how a month ago, the feedback you give is loony...and then in a month, everyone's spouting it back to you as gospel:)...

 

[grey ghost]

10 minutes ago, Brainbug said:

 

John Wick 2 managed it, i really hope Kingsman can do atleast the same numbers as the first. And yes, i remember the 200M+ predictions for Ted 2

 

Yeah, Wick still had room to grow.

 

I see less room for Kingsman and the bionic cowboy gimmick isn't going to be enough to win back the same audience.

 

I feel like the studio secretly knows this.