WEEKEND THREAD | Weekend actuals (pg. 87 onward) - Dunkirk: 26.6M; The Emoji Movie: 24.5M; Girls Trip: 19.6M; Atomic Blonde: 18.2M; SM Homecoming: 13.2M; War For The POTA: 10.4M; Despicable Me 3: 7.4M; Valerian: 6.3M; Baby Driver: 3.9M; Wonder Woman: 3.3M

[PenguinHyphy]

1 hour ago, filmnerdjamie said:

Bigelow had her moment and she's made the most of it since. Don't see any additional Oscars (or even nominations, honestly) in her future. Always found it very telling that she got snubbed for Zero Dark Thirty.

She does a really great job with Detroit, and I see many members in the directing branch marveling at what she does with the movie. Zero Dark Thirty was torpedoed by the CIA and pro-torture controversy. I do not see Detroit having anything like that arising. 

Edited July 30, 2017 by PenguinHyphy

[Jonwo]

35 minutes ago, Zakiyyah6 said:

Am I the only one who felt that Dunkirk was going to do stellar numbers in the UK because of the subject matter?

I thought it would be very successful but not this successful. It's likely going to do £50-55m total which would be insane 

[Chaz]

We finally got @MikeQ back and now y'all are going to scare him away again. 😞

[redfirebird2008]

14 minutes ago, PenguinHyphy said:

It is not going to gross more than Interstellar. Interstellar had a way better weekend two and an increase weekend four. Dunkirk is not going to see any increases. 

 

Way better weekend 2? Interstellar had preview money split out as Wednesday and Thursday grosses during opening weekend. It's closer to a 43% drop on the second weekend. You are also ignoring summer weekdays. Dunkirk does not need the same weekend drops to end up with a similar run overall. It grossed over $5 million more than Interstellar from Monday-Thursday last week. This week it will gain another $4 million. 

 

Thanksgiving and Christmas/New Year's were a huge boost for Interstellar, but summer weekdays are a secret weapon for Dunkirk. After opening weekend, Dunkirk was at $50.5m and Interstellar was at $49.66 million. After the second Sunday, Dunkirk is at $102.8m and Interstellar was at $96.9m. Dunkirk was $840,000 ahead after opening weekend and is now $5.9 million ahead after Weekend 2. I expect Dunkirk to be around $134m after next Sunday compared to Interstellar's $121m total at the same point. 

Edited July 30, 2017 by redfirebird2008

[ACSlater]

17 minutes ago, The Futurist said:

Pretty common knowledge folks.

Love the Canadian flavor in this one.

 

[Zakiyyah6]

Just now, redfirebird2008 said:

 

Way better weekend 2? Interstellar had preview money split out as Wednesday and Thursday grosses during opening weekend. It's closer to a 43% drop on the second weekend. You are also ignoring summer weekdays. Dunkirk does not need the same weekend drops to end up with a similar run overall. It grossed over $5 million more than Interstellar from Monday-Thursday last week. This week it will gain another $4 million. 

 

Thanksgiving and Christmas/New Year's were a huge boost for Interstellar, but summer weekdays are a secret weapon for Dunkirk. 

Good analysis. I always feel direct comparisons of winter and summer movies to be a dubious practice. I recall in June the bizarre comparisons of Wonder Woman and Mockingjay Part 2 because they had a similar opening weekend but they were released during two completely different times of year and one was a third sequel that had much worse reviews. On the face of it I get the comparisons but I wish that more people would look at what they're really comparing.

[grim22]

10 minutes ago, PenguinHyphy said:

I do not see Detroit having anything like that arising. 

 

 

[PenguinHyphy]

1 minute ago, grim22 said:

 

 

I have no idea what you are intimating. 

[redfirebird2008]

3 minutes ago, Zakiyyah6 said:

Good analysis. I always feel direct comparisons of winter and summer movies to be a dubious practice. I recall in June the bizarre comparisons of Wonder Woman and Mockingjay Part 2 because they had a similar opening weekend but they were released during two completely different times of year and one was a third sequel that had much worse reviews. On the face of it I get the comparisons but I wish that more people would look at what they're really comparing.

 

Interstellar is a good comparison in the sense they both opened around $50m and there is a good chance they end up with a similar total gross around $190m. But they will get there in different ways. Dunkirk has the summer weekdays to help and Interstellar has the Thanksgiving/Christmas holidays to help. Dunkirk will probably be around $13m ahead of Interstellar after next Sunday...but it will need that cushion because Interstellar ends up increasing on Weekend #4 due to Thanksgiving. 

[grim22]

Just now, PenguinHyphy said:

I have no idea what you are intimating. 

 

They are embracing a full on political bent to the movie and its promotions. That never helps when it comes to nominations. The Academy prefers to be non political and non controversial as much as possible, and calling out Cheeto directly makes it political and controversial.

[a2k]

Summer deserves something like a Mon-Thu Weekday Chart. At times (like with SM's 1st Mon-Thu being 22.4 and the 2nd weekend being 22), Mon-Thu can pull in a huge amount and even as we follow the individual weekdays, the collective gross goes un-noticed. That skews our perception of legs. Dunkirk for eg, is on track to challenge Interstellar. I wouldn't give it a less than 40% chance at this point.

 

Dunkirk is 85.3 away from Interstellar after a 28.1 weekend. So it needs to add 3.04x the 2nd weekend to it's cume. Good chance it does that. Will add 30+ in the next 7 days (Mon-Sun) imo.

 

At 318 dom, SMH will have added 2.5x the 2nd weekend gross to it's cume (44.2*2.5+207.3 = 317.8). So is 3x the 2nd weekend gross improbable for Dunkirk (28.1*3.04 + 102.8 = 188.1)?

Edited July 30, 2017 by a2knet

[Zakiyyah6]

6 minutes ago, redfirebird2008 said:

 

Interstellar is a good comparison in the sense they both opened around $50m and there is a good chance they end up with a similar total gross around $190m. But they will get there in different ways. Dunkirk has the summer weekdays to help and Interstellar has the Thanksgiving/Christmas holidays to help. Dunkirk will probably be around $13m ahead of Interstellar after next Sunday...but it will need that cushion because Interstellar ends up increasing on Weekend #4 due to Thanksgiving. 

Yes I agree. Interstellar is a good comparison in that way. I hope Dunkirk can leg it out and do 200mil.

 

I must mention again that an under 50% drop from a 50mil opener in July is pretty darn impressive. 

Edited July 30, 2017 by Zakiyyah6

[redfirebird2008]

5 minutes ago, Zakiyyah6 said:

Yes I agree. Interstellar is a good comparison in that way. I hope Dunkirk can leg it out and do 200mil.

 

I must mention again that an under 50% drop from a 50mil opener in July is pretty darn impressive. 

 

Especially since the Thursday preview number was a pretty big percentage of the opening weekend gross. 

[titanic2187]

9 minutes ago, grim22 said:

 

They are embracing a full on political bent to the movie and its promotions. That never helps when it comes to nominations. The Academy prefers to be non political and non controversial as much as possible, and calling out Cheeto directly makes it political and controversial.

agreed, I never imagined that could go that way in their marketing campaign, it looks so disgusting to me....it creates award buzz of course, but doesn't mean it deserves an award

[Water Bottle]

1 hour ago, MikeQ said:

Dear admins/mods (@Squadron Leader Tele, @Water Bottle, @Stutterng baumer Denbrough),

 

Can we pretty, pretty, please (ever-so-kindly) re-instate format retention for formatted stuff that is copy and pasted? Whenever I paste any of my info/lists since the update, the formatting (bold, italics, colours, etc) is still lost, which makes it really cumbersome to have to re-do all of the formatting within the post. It makes a big difference.  

 

Peace,

Mike

 

It never went away, try clearing your cache.

[PenguinHyphy]

9 minutes ago, grim22 said:

 

They are embracing a full on political bent to the movie and its promotions. That never helps when it comes to nominations. The Academy prefers to be non political and non controversial as much as possible, and calling out Cheeto directly makes it political and controversial.

That is utterly false, and that is from some one who works in the industry. They do not give a fuck about anyone calling out Trump. They do not even like him. They were practically jizzing on themselves when Meryl Streep gave that Globes speech. The Emmys just gave Saturday Night Live twenty-two nominations because it lampoons Trump, so I have no idea where you are getting the notion that they are sensitive about Trump. The CIA and pro-torture controversy is the controversy that they do not like given that Hollywood is pretty anti-war. That trailer that you posted will help her more than anything. Anyway, I see the directors branch being particularly impressed with the motel sequence.                                                                                                                                             

[baumer]

36 minutes ago, ACSlater said:

 

 

Not Canadian. 

Its the dude from Parenthood and my own private Idaho.

[a2k]

36 minutes ago, redfirebird2008 said:

 

Interstellar is a good comparison in the sense they both opened around $50m and there is a good chance they end up with a similar total gross around $190m. But they will get there in different ways. Dunkirk has the summer weekdays to help and Interstellar has the Thanksgiving/Christmas holidays to help. Dunkirk will probably be around $13m ahead of Interstellar after next Sunday...but it will need that cushion because Interstellar ends up increasing on Weekend #4 due to Thanksgiving. 

D was such a tough sell in comparison. WB wouldn't have expected 600+ Dom combined from D and WONDR. Both will also bring around 1.4b WW together. What's their combined prod budget? Just 150 + 100 = 250.

 

Edited July 30, 2017 by a2knet

[MikeQ]

24 minutes ago, Water Bottle said:

 

It never went away, try clearing your cache.

Unfortunately, I already tried that when it first stopped working after the update. I just tried it again for good measure - no luck. The exact same lists/materials of mine that I would copy and paste before the update don't retain the formatting as they used to pre-update, for whatever reason. I really appreciate the help though. I'm sure it's a confluence of things that is not making it work. It is frustrating, but maybe it's a sign telling me I post too many lists and stuff anyway. Heh.

 

Peace,

Mike

Edited July 30, 2017 by MikeQ

[MCKillswitch123]

Damn good hold for Dunkirk. To anybody out there who only claims that "it's only okay" or something, first of all not every single original, non-franchise movie gets the luxury of opening to 50M in the Summer, especially a World War 2 movie. That big rush was probably attributable to a combo of wom + the Chris Nolan fanbase. For Dunkirk to fight the potential frontloadedness it could have attracted with a 44% drop at #1 is pretty great. So I really don't know where you're coming from.

 

Girls Trip even more impressive. A stronger 2nd weekend hold than Bad Moms despite opening 10M higher. As a matter of fact, it almost matched BM's OW here. 120M+ is a done deal. I will laugh so hard when it actually outgrosses the new Transformers movie.

 

Emoji Movie opened in my hoped for range of 25M for selfish reasons. Not that I actively wanted the movie to fail, I just banked on Dunkirk this weekend. Anyway, not that bad of a number, all things considered. Though I doubt it's gonna be a big DOM success as the IM shows that it may have weak legs for an animation. If anything, though, its opening does validate that it absolutely would have opened at #1 and have a breakout performance if it had even a teardrop of decent wom. See, Sony? If you had actually tried, you would be making a lot more money with this. What kind of animated movie drops from real Friday to Saturday on OW?

 

Atomic Blonde is fine. People are quick to throw a shitstorm when they don't get 200M openers. This movie cost 30M and is hardly a tentpole for the companies involved (maybe Focus, if you wanna take it that way?). With an 18M OW, it's gonna do some money. The positive but unenthusiastic wom seems to have let it down a little (and that's a stretch, since this was always the realistic range), but nowhere near to call it a flop.

 

Now a real flop, on the other hand, is Valerian. Poor thing will struggle to make 40M DOM, which is sad to see. May end up as one of the biggest bombs in Hollywood history if OS doesn't hold up either.

 

Spidey finally maintaining strong legwork and headed towards 310-320 maybe. Apes is echoing SMH's 1st weekends... only worse, but maybe that means next week it starts to do well? Remember that it also took POTC5 a few weeks to get good late legs. DM3 had a bigger than usual drop due to Emoji, but it's still displaying a damn sexy pair of legs, and it has a serious shot at 1B WW, continuing Universal's banner 2017 so far.

 

Wonder Woman is the 8th wonder of the world. Baby Driver is locked to hit 100M and that warms my heart so much. Big Sick also impressive in spite of the theater drop.

Edited July 30, 2017 by MCKillswitch123