Weekend Thread. Dark Tower 19.5...Dunkirk 17.6....Emoji 12.3...Girls Trip 11.4 not sure what page| Not the sex thread

[a2k]

So...which one has a bad release date next June/July:

 

Movies that have a bad release date according to me are in red, the average release dates are in violet, and the good ones are in blue.

 

JUNE
• Deadpool 2 (Fox) - 6/1 comedy is a major attraction and this month has enough movies which offer humor. this one being huge may deflect all of them though.
• Ocean's 8 (WB) - 6/8
• The Incredibles 2 (BV) - 6/15 ... JW2 will attract families. I2, being old IP, also depends on adults, and DP2, O8, Barbie, Tag all have comedy as selling point for adults.
• Jurassic World 2 (Uni.) - 6/22 ... JW had IO OW in 2nd weekend. Here I2's 2nd weekend in OW is better. Open 2nd weekend. Then AM2's comp padded by ID holidays.
• Barbie (Sony) - 6/29
• Tag (WB) - 6/29

 

JULY
• Untitled Next Purge Chapter (Uni.) - 7/4
• Ant-Man and the Wasp (BV) - 7/6
• The Spy Who Dumped Me (LGF) - 7/6 ... comedy film between AM2 and HT3
• Hotel Transylvania 3 (Sony) - 7/13 ... no direct comp but so many strong holdovers. on the other hand could leg it like DM3.
• The Nun (WB (NL)) - 7/13 ... horror film is unique but also seems dumped here in a crowded couple of months. No place in Aug/Sep?
• Skyscraper (Uni.) - 7/13 ... Dwayne Johnson action thriller with Alita and MI6 in 2nd and 3rd weekends, and going against a horror film (teens/20s crowd).
• Alita: Battle Angel (Fox) - 7/20
• Mamma Mia: Here We Go Again! (Uni.) - 7/20
• Mission: Impossible 6 (Par.) - 7/27

Edited August 6, 2017 by a2knet

[Catty]

16 minutes ago, eXtacy said:

Cant believe emoji movie only dropped 50%. The market place must really be dry for kids films. Maybe thats also why DM3 is doing so well.

My grandson is 5 - he wants to see it just for the poop emoji - he even has the pillow.  Kids don't have the greatest taste in movies & most parents will take them to see it even though it's godawful.

[WrathOfHan]

1 minute ago, a2knet said:

So...which one has a bad release date next June/July:

 

Movies that have a bad release date according to me are in red, the average release dates are in violet, and the good ones are in blue.

 

JUNE
• Deadpool 2 (Fox) - 6/1
• Ocean's 8 (WB) - 6/8
• The Incredibles 2 (BV) - 6/15 ... JW2 will attract families. I2, being old IP, also depends on adults, and DP2, O8, Barbie, Tag all have comedy as selling point for adults.
• Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom (Uni.) - 6/22 ... JW1 had IO OW in it's 2nd weekend. JW2 having I2's 2nd weekend in the OW is certainly better.
• Barbie (Sony) - 6/29
• Tag (WB) - 6/29

 

JULY
• Untitled Next Purge Chapter (Uni.) - 7/4
• Ant-Man and the Wasp (BV) - 7/6
• The Spy Who Dumped Me (LGF) - 7/6 ... comedy film between AM2 and HT3
• Hotel Transylvania 3 (Sony) - 7/13 ... no direct comp but so many strong holdovers. on the other hand could leg it like DM3.
• The Nun (WB (NL)) - 7/13 ... horror film seems dumped here in a crowded couple of months. No place in Aug/Sep?
• Skyscraper (Uni.) - 7/13 ... Dwayne Johnson action thriller with Alita and MI6 in 2nd and 3rd weekends, and going against a horror film in Nun.
• Alita: Battle Angel (Fox) - 7/20
• Mamma Mia: Here We Go Again! (Uni.) - 7/20
• Mission: Impossible 6 (Par.) - 7/27

Pretty good overall, but I'd put Deadpool and Incredibles as good dates and Oceans as average.

[Dementeleus]

Dunno why you guys think ALITA is gonna be a big threat to anyone. 

[WrathOfHan]

1 minute ago, Squadron Leader Tele said:

Dunno why you guys think ALITA is gonna be a big threat to anyone. 

JAMES CAMERON: WRITER

[baumer]

@grey ghost

@iJackSparrow

 

You guys were definitely right. I admit that the first two weekends of Spider-Man cause me and most others to jump the gun. But it is having good legs and will probably end up around 2.8 or 2.9 with an outside chance of a three multiplier. I guess superhero movies or movies with a strong fan base will cause the movie to plummet in its second weekend and invariably at the third as well. So good call on both of your parts and you guys were right.

[YM!]

9 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

Just think, Emoji could have dropped 40% if families weren't saving up for THE animated film of the year!

 

Who's ready for the first $1B grosser in a single territory.

[a2k]

14 minutes ago, Stutterng baumer Denbrough said:

@grey ghost

@iJackSparrow

 

You guys were definitely right. I admit that the first two weekends of Spider-Man cause me and most others to jump the gun. But it is having good legs and will probably end up around 2.8 or 2.9 with an outside chance of a three multiplier. I guess superhero movies or movies with a strong fan base will cause the movie to plummet in its second weekend and invariably at the third as well. So good call on both of your parts and you guys were right.

328 dom gives 2.8x. Can't see much more than that. 2.9x needs 339 dom.

But yeah, 2.8 is a solid multiplier. July does ask us to be patient I guess.

 

July movie , 1st weekend drop, 2nd weekend drop, final multiplier :

ant-man  56.5%   48.6%   3.15x

minions   57.4%   53.5%   2.9x

spidey     62.2%   49.9%   2.8x

Edited August 6, 2017 by a2knet

[filmnerdjamie]

Just now, WrathOfHan said:

Pretty good overall, but I'd put Deadpool and Incredibles as good dates and Oceans as average.

Barbie won't make that date, Hotel Transylvania 3 is better suited for September where it has traditionally killed and Momma Mia: Here We Go Again! strikes me as another one of those Sequels to Well-Liked Original Films that Nobody Asked For.

[That One Girl]

WAIT, EMOJI MOVIE DROPPED LESS THAN 50%?  HOLY SHIT YES I'M STILL IN QOTW LET'S GOOOOOOO

[Zakiyyah6]

I don't see a 3.0 multi happening for SMH but it has a shot at a 2.9.

Edited August 6, 2017 by Zakiyyah6

[Vecc]

1 hour ago, MCKillswitch123 said:

 

Baby Driver just 3M away from 100.... will probably do it next fucking week  EDGAR FUCKIN' WRIGHT MOTHERFUCKERS

 

 

Indeed! Baby Driver has not produced a single disappointing number so far. Week to week drops were under 40% each day. Even if it starts dropping 40%, it will get to 100M by the end of next week.

[a2k]

17 minutes ago, Squadron Leader Tele said:

Dunno why you guys think ALITA is gonna be a big threat to anyone. 

I think Cameron produced/written (at least the trailers will sell this aspect) tentpole is a good competition, and possibly big threat to some movie's legs (aka Action/Thriller Skyscraper's 2nd weekend, which will also face MI6 in 3rd weekend and so may loose lots of theaters if it has back to back big drops)

 

Original scifi is a tough sell but Cameron's name makes a difference.

[Alli]

24 minutes ago, a2knet said:

So...which one has a bad release date next June/July:

 

Movies that have a bad release date according to me are in red, the average release dates are in violet, and the good ones are in blue.

 

• Mission: Impossible 6 (Par.) - 7/27

Is the MI6 release date good tho? it's almost august when movies don't perform well....legs will be bad

[MrPink]

1 minute ago, Alli said:

Is the MI6 release date good tho? it's almost august when movies don't perform well....legs will be bad

 

?

 

Rogue Nation had extremely good legs with a similar release date

[AdamKendall]

2 minutes ago, Alli said:

Is the MI6 release date good tho? it's almost august when movies don't perform well....legs will be bad

It's a great date.  Guardians & Suicide Squad showed how good August can be.

[Alli]

Just now, MrPink said:

 

?

 

Rogue Nation had extremely good legs with a similar release date

oops. you're right

[McNerdy]

2 minutes ago, a2knet said:

I think Cameron produced/written (at least the trailers will sell this aspect) tentpole is a good competition, and possibly big threat to some movie's legs (aka Action/Thriller Skyscraper's 2nd weekend, which will also face MI6 in 3rd weekend and so may loose lots of theaters if it has back to back big drops)

 

Original scifi is a tough sell but Cameron's name makes a difference.

Jup...and who knows, it might even become another avatar box office wise 

[JB33]

7 minutes ago, filmnerdjamie said:

Barbie won't make that date, Hotel Transylvania 3 is better suited for September where it has traditionally killed and Momma Mia: Here We Go Again! strikes me as another one of those Sequels to Well-Liked Original Films that Nobody Asked For.

I was going to say this. The top two September opening weekends of all time are the first two HT movies. I don't know why they didn't just keep it in September.

[a2k]

9 minutes ago, Alli said:

Is the MI6 release date good tho? it's almost august when movies don't perform well....legs will be bad

Same as Jason Bourne's date last year but without Suicide Squad in the 2nd weekend. Despite that Bourne did 2.74x (162.4/59.2) thanks to solid recovery post SS:

 

Date(click to view chart)	Rank	WeekendGross	%Change	Theaters	Change / Avg.		Gross-to-Date	Week#
Jul 29–31	1	$59,215,365	-	4,026	-	$14,708	$59,215,365	1
Aug 5–7	2	$22,405,125	-62.2%	4,039	+13	$5,547	$103,111,145	2
Aug 12–14	4	$13,846,875	-38.2%	3,528	-511	$3,925	$127,009,220	3
Aug 19–21	7	$8,016,895	-42.1%	2,887	-641	$2,777	$140,920,180	4
Aug 26–28	9	$5,141,045	-35.9%	2,445	-442	$2,103	$149,268,280	5
Sep 2–4	11	$3,962,600	-22.9%	1,976	-469	$2,005	$155,133,255	6
Sep 2–5	11	$5,065,435	-1.5%	1,976	-469	$2,563	$156,236,090	6
Sep 9–11	14	$1,746,625	-55.9%	1,510	-466	$1,157	$158,727,915	7
Sep 16–18	17	$1,098,085	-37.1%	1,008	-502	$1,089	$160,408,000	8

 

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=main&id=bourne5.htm

 

There's Ferrell/Riley comedy and PREDATOR in the 2nd weekend for MI6, MEG in the 3rd weekend. All those 3 films combined won't come close to SS as competition.

Edited August 6, 2017 by a2knet