WEEKEND THREAD | ANNABELLE 2 - $35m; DUNKIRK - $11.4m; NUT JOB 2 - $8.9m; BABY DRIVER Crosses $100m!!!

[YM!]

 

 

[WrathOfHan]

1 minute ago, a2knet said:

conj1 3.28x

anna1 2.27x

conj2 2.53x

 

I don't think anna2 can beat conj2's 2.53x. anna2 gonna have bigger previews but smaller ow than conj2 : not a good formula when it comes to legs.

 

2.3x (same as anna1) means it will have defeated sequlitis and yearly front-loading thanks to superior word of mouth. that itself would be some achievement. 

 

High-end imo 37 ow * 2.3x = 85 dom. (obviously a fantastic number)

 

Low-end probably 32 * 2.1 = 67. (still a great number)

 

Middle of those two gives 34.5 * 2.2 = 76 (between great and fantastic )

I don't see it having worse legs than Conjuring 2 with how weak August 25 and September 1 look. It'll probably drop around 50-55% next weekend due to some frontloading, but then it'll hold very well those two weekend.

[Mockingjay Raphael]

What most impresses me when it comes to James Wan's work (and the TCU as a whole), it's the appeal that it has with both teenager and adult audiences. Horror is such a polarizing genre, usually a movie reach only one demo, but Wan can bring different audiences in droves. The cross-over appeal is what put this franchise as the top one for the genre, plus, it's going to help in the longevity.

[Jonwo]

I'll be interested how The Nun does next year, I think the July slot is risky but I imagine the film is cheap enough that it'll be profitable regardless. 

 

I imagine WB/New Line will have The Crooked Man for either Summer 2019 or October 2019.

[WrathOfHan]

Just now, Jonwo said:

I'll be interested how The Nun does next year, I think the July slot is risky but I imagine the film is cheap enough that it'll be profitable regardless. 

 

I imagine WB/New Line will have The Crooked Man for either Summer 2019 or October 2019.

The Nun is going to do very well. Next summer is currently barren for horror, and I'd expect it to match Creation's OW as long as it's good.

[MrGlass2]

These horror movies are a gold mine.

In a couple of years Hollywood will only produce superhero and cheap horror films.

[a2k]

Is 23JS happening? It's not like Sony is too busy with other profitable franchises. Would be one of those 'why was a sequel never made' (looking at for you Austin Powers 4) scenarios if we don't get MIB 23.

[Jonwo]

1 minute ago, Mockingjay Raphael said:

What most impresses me when it comes to James Wan's work (and the TCU as a whole), it's the appeal that it has with both teenager and adult audiences. Horror is such a polarizing genre, usually a movie reach only one demo, but Wan can bring different audiences in droves. The cross-over appeal is what put this franchise as the top one for the genre, plus, it's going to help in the longevity.

Wan is a talented director, the fact he can work with both low to mid budgets with The Conjuring, Insidious etc to high tentpoles like Fast 7 and Aquaman. Fast 7 turned out really well considering he had to deal with the death of Paul Walker and basically retool the film.

[dxmatrixdt]

2 minutes ago, JB33 said:

Stellar preview number for Annabelle! The movie wasn't perfect, by any means, but the audience is going to love it.

 

Really curious about what the OW will look like. Can it reach $40M? Will it be extremely front loaded on Friday? We'll see.

I think the audience is going to love it too!  Good reviews and good RT audience score.  I would be anticipating a good cinemascore but after Ouija 2 who knows.  Ouija 2 had better reviews and a good RT audience score.  I saw it opening night and loved it and was expecting a high cinemascore.  For reference:

Conjuring - A-

Conjuring 2 - A-

Annabelle - B

Insidious - B

Insidious 2 - B+

Insidious 3 - B+

Ouija - C

Ouija 2 - C

^^LOL common, really?  Ouija 2 a 'C'.  When feeling out so many comparisons and using logic, Ouija 2 should have at least been a C+/B- minimum!   In that case, expect Annabelle 2 to get a B like the first one.

[Mockingjay Raphael]

4 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

I don't see it having worse legs than Conjuring 2 with how weak August 25 and September 1 look. It'll probably drop around 50-55% next weekend due to some frontloading, but then it'll hold very well those two weekend.

People tend to forget that TC2 faced that small movie called Finding Dory on its second weekend, a movie that had a four quadrant appeal. I remember that it had really strong weekdays, but then collapsed in the weekend because of the competition, A:C won't have the same problem.

 

[filmlover]

2 minutes ago, a2knet said:

Is 23JS happening? It's not like Sony is too busy with other profitable franchises. Would be one of those 'why was a sequel never made' (looking at for you Austin Powers 4) scenarios if we don't get MIB 23.

Who knows. Maybe Channing will move it along since it appears that X-Men spin-off he signed on for (and even took a photo alongside the rest of the cast) is probably never gonna happen.

[MrGlass2]

1 minute ago, Mockingjay Raphael said:

A:C won't have the same problem

Can it beat Alien: Covenant and Assassin's Creed?

[TwoMisfits]

14 minutes ago, Matrix4You said:

we should be careful with our Annabelle predictions.  Despite the 4M in previews, WB has it projected at 25M, and with The Nut Job 2 opening in 4,000 theaters and The Glass Castle being oscar bait, the #1 slot should be up for grabs.

Hahahahaha...the #1 slot is up for grabs...this is about the most slam dunk week we've had for that spot in a month...

[WrathOfHan]

Runtimes without credits and attachments for next week:

 

Logan Lucky: 1:55. Attachments are Breathe and Brad's Status

THB: 1:51: Attachments are American Assassin and TYLER PERRY'S BOO 2! A MADEA HALLOWEEN

[grim22]

27 minutes ago, Matrix4You said:

we should be careful with our Annabelle predictions.  Despite the 4M in previews, WB has it projected at 25M, and with The Nut Job 2 opening in 4,000 theaters and The Glass Castle being oscar bait, the #1 slot should be up for grabs.

 

What about the Megan Leavey expansion?/

[cookie]

What dimhead decided to put Nut Job 2 in over 4,000 theaters?

 

Guess Emoji Movie won't hold that PTA record for long.

Edited August 11, 2017 by cookie

[MCKillswitch123]

Who is directing The Nun? Because, given that many people actually liked The Conjuring 2 more than the 1st one, and next year's Summer looks a little weak in terms of horror (except for The Purge 4, which is just a one-weekend-only event), it has stroooong potential.

[CJohn]

Just now, MCKillswitch123 said:

Who is directing The Nun? Because, given that many people actually liked The Conjuring 2 more than the 1st one, and next year's Summer looks a little weak in terms of horror (except for The Purge 4, which is just a one-weekend-only event), it has stroooong potential.

It will pull Annabelle 1 numbers even with a shit director IMO.

[WrathOfHan]

2 minutes ago, MCKillswitch123 said:

Who is directing The Nun? Because, given that many people actually liked The Conjuring 2 more than the 1st one, and next year's Summer looks a little weak in terms of horror (except for The Purge 4, which is just a one-weekend-only event), it has stroooong potential.

Corin Hardy, director of The Hallow. That was fairly well-received though nothing through the roof.

Edited August 11, 2017 by WrathOfHan

[Jonwo]

6 minutes ago, cookie said:

What dimhead decided to put Nut Job 2 in over 4,000 theaters?

 

Guess Emoji Movie won't hold that PTA record for long.

Open Road really must have pull in favours or exhibitors really were desperate for new family fare.