Labor Day Weekend Thread: The Death of Box Office | Posting or Discussing Any Weekend Numbers = Banned | Pokémon or True Detective gifs Are Allowed

[Barnack]

14 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

BOP is still too low on mother!'s OW, but at least they're predicting good legs. This is the hardest film to predict in recent memory because the film is going to be VERY controversial.

 

13 minutes ago, Alli said:

They still insist with that low mother prediction    the hype will grow as the release approaches/ the controvery will only help the OW. I say a 20M OW is a minimum i can see

 

You are both being a bit too bullish imo, no way an small original movie without a giant marketing has a 20m OW minimum floor, (well many giant movie with giant year's long marketing do not even achieve that), we live in a world that a giant $200M Disney movie like Tomorrowland with 2 year's of massive marketing including Superbowls ads, starring Clooney, made by Brad Bird, 10 minute previews playing before Age of Ultron and so on did $33m and that GITS/Valerian/Baywatch/Atomic Blonde didn't do 20m.

 

Let alone a very small scale original movie that look artsy, when was the last one to open at $20m ? what comparable do you have in mind ? The Witches had a whole year of buzz, some of the best reviews ever for an horror movie, 2000 theater, didn't do $9m. Even Drive made only $11.3m and they did spent a bit like an action blockbuster on is domestic theatrical release on it.

 

Maybe the hype will grow but right now it is not really that superior to movie that will not open at 20m like American Assasin (AA being a franchise movie need to be corrected down a bit, but still, we would not say that American Made floor is $20m):

 

Rankings	Movie	Diff from Yesterday	Total Likes
1	Girls Trip	+2,837	286,708
2	Maze Runner: The Death Cure	+1,729	3,481,856
3	Blade Runner 2049	+1,523	1,417,712
4	It (2017)	+1,485	1,150,440
5	American Made	+1,239	82,822
6	Dunkirk	+1,233	626,140
7	I Can Only Imagine	+949	118,366
8	Star Wars: The Last Jedi	+878	19,013,104
9	mother!	+840	94,050
10	American Assassin	+822	126,538

 

Youtube trailers views August 20 - August 26, 2017:

 

1	IT (Warner / New Line)	1.070 M	49.048 M	Sep. 8, 2017	4
2	Thor: Ragnarok (Disney)	952 K	85.908 M	Nov. 3, 2017	4
3	Justice League (Warner Bros.)	832 K	73.393 M	Nov. 17, 2017	4
4	Alpha (Sony / Columbia)	680 K	4.750 M	Mar. 2, 2018	2
5	The LEGO Ninjago Movie (Warner Bros.)	625 K	14.006 M	Sep. 22, 2017	5
6	American Assassin (Lionsgate / CBS Films)	552 K	8.085 M	Sep. 15, 2017	8
7	Flatliners (Sony / Screen Gems)	509 K	6.236 M	Sep. 29, 2017	2
8	mother! (Paramount)	351 K	8.405 M	Sep. 15, 2017	6
9	Pitch Perfect 3 (Universal)	341 K	16.016 M	Dec. 22, 2017	2
10	Star Wars: The Last Jedi (Disney)	235 K	46.372 M	Dec. 15, 2017	2

 

 

Not surprising for box office pro to stay with it as a bit bigger The Witch, about to double It come at Night, until some hype actually start, if it does.

Edited September 1, 2017 by Barnack

[That One Girl]

3 minutes ago, filmlover said:

An erotic thriller starring Dane DeHaan sounds like the least sexy thriller of all time, tho. 

 

Alicia Vikander though.

[JB33]

7 minutes ago, Boxofficerules said:

I saw a teaser for The Nun at Frightfest so one exists

I know one was shown at SDCC as well, but I figure these teasers and footage are exclusives for attendees at whatever event so I'm not counting those.

[Jake Gittes]

3 minutes ago, That Tulip Guy said:

 

Fuck, there's a whole entire list of them and they do this often.  How the fuck have I not known about this?

 

-Rear Window

-2001

-You Only Live Twice

-Days of Heaven

-Monterey Pop

-Terminator 2

-Wolf Guy

-Night of the Living Dead

-Buena Vista Social Club

-Saturday Night Fever

-The Dragon Lives Again

-Heat

-Simpsons Movie

-Godfather

-Babe

 

I dream of seeing Rear Window, 2001, Days of Heaven and Heat in a theater. I'd hit all those and at least half the others if I were you. (Buena Vista Social Club is the only one that sticks out, not cause it's bad but because it was shot on really ugly late '90s digital video, and time has done its look no favors.)

[WrathOfHan]

1 minute ago, Barnack said:

Not surprising for box office pro to stay with it as a bit bigger The Witch, about to double It come at Night, until some hype actually start, if it does.

This isn't going to perform like The Witch and ICAN because it's not in the vein of those two. Just because it has an artistic flair to it does NOT mean it's a slow burn. Buzz has been increasing quite a bit the past couple of days, and that'll only explode once reviews are out on Tuesday. The (new?) trailer will be at many showings of It as well.

[MrPink]

3 minutes ago, Fancyarcher said:

Sounds awesome. I kinda feel jealous. 

 

Good. I was in need of feeding off jealousy. 

[Alli]

Don't forget this has Lawrence who's the no1 star right now.

[TwoMisfits]

1 minute ago, Barnack said:

 

 

You are both being a bit too bullish imo, no way an small original movie without a giant marketing has a 20m OW minimum floor, (well many giant movie with giant year's long marketing do not even achieve that), we live in a world that a giant $200M Disney movie like Tomorrowland with 2 year's of massive marketing including Superbowls ads, starring Clooney, made by Brad Bird, 10 minute previews playing before Age of Ultron and so on did $33m and that GITS/Valerian/Baywatch/Atomic Blonde didn't do 20m.

 

Let alone a very small scale original movie that look artsy, when was the last one to open at $20m ? what comparable do you have in mind ? The Witches had a whole year of buzz, some of the best reviews ever for an horror movie, 2000 theater, didn't do $9m. Even Drive made only $11.3m and they did spent a bit like an action blockbuster on is domestic theatrical release on it.

 

Maybe the hype will grow but right now it is not really that superior to movie that will not open at 20m like American Assasin (AA being a franchise movie need to be corrected down a bit, but still, we would not say that American Made floor is $20m):

 

Rankings	Movie	Diff from Yesterday	Total Likes
1	Girls Trip	+2,837	286,708
2	Maze Runner: The Death Cure	+1,729	3,481,856
3	Blade Runner 2049	+1,523	1,417,712
4	It (2017)	+1,485	1,150,440
5	American Made	+1,239	82,822
6	Dunkirk	+1,233	626,140
7	I Can Only Imagine	+949	118,366
8	Star Wars: The Last Jedi	+878	19,013,104
9	mother!	+840	94,050
10	American Assassin	+822	126,538

 

Youtube trailers views August 20 - August 26, 2017:

 

1	IT (Warner / New Line)	1.070 M	49.048 M	Sep. 8, 2017	4
2	Thor: Ragnarok (Disney)	952 K	85.908 M	Nov. 3, 2017	4
3	Justice League (Warner Bros.)	832 K	73.393 M	Nov. 17, 2017	4
4	Alpha (Sony / Columbia)	680 K	4.750 M	Mar. 2, 2018	2
5	The LEGO Ninjago Movie (Warner Bros.)	625 K	14.006 M	Sep. 22, 2017	5
6	American Assassin (Lionsgate / CBS Films)	552 K	8.085 M	Sep. 15, 2017	8
7	Flatliners (Sony / Screen Gems)	509 K	6.236 M	Sep. 29, 2017	2
8	mother! (Paramount)	351 K	8.405 M	Sep. 15, 2017	6
9	Pitch Perfect 3 (Universal)	341 K	16.016 M	Dec. 22, 2017	2
10	Star Wars: The Last Jedi (Disney)	235 K	46.372 M	Dec. 15, 2017	2

 

 

Not surprising for box office pro to stay with it as a bit bigger The Witch, about to double It come at Night, until some hype actually start, if it does.

Gonna agree 100%...its free press is gonna get dwarfed with the pre-and post-IT aftermath, its audience will have just seen a movie the week prior, and it's still a Sept movie so there's a limit to how many folks head to movies when there are fall fests/football of all types/the new tv season kickoff/back to school requirements/etc...$20M floor is kinda a really optimistic position to take, especially on a movie that everyone is saying might piss you off...these types of movies (ala Detroit) are not doing well with audiences this year...

[Fancyarcher]

10 minutes ago, MrPink said:

 

Good. I was in need of feeding off jealousy. 

Perfect. I still feel jealous though, augh. 

Edited September 1, 2017 by Fancyarcher

[Alli]

5 minutes ago, Barnack said:

 

 

You are both being a bit too bullish imo, no way an small original movie without a giant marketing has a 20m OW minimum floor, (well many giant movie with giant year's long marketing do not even achieve that), we live in a world that a giant $200M Disney movie like Tomorrowland with 2 year's of massive marketing including Superbowls ads, starring Clooney, made by Brad Bird, 10 minute previews playing before Age of Ultron and so on did $33m and that GITS/Valerian/Baywatch/Atomic Blonde didn't do 20m.

 

Let alone a very small scale original movie that look artsy, when was the last one to open at $20m ? what comparable do you have in mind ? The Witches had a whole year of buzz, some of the best reviews ever for an horror movie, 2000 theater, didn't do $9m. Even Drive made only $11.3m and they did spent a bit like an action blockbuster on is domestic theatrical release on it.

 

Maybe the hype will grow but right now it is not really that superior to movie that will not open at 20m like American Assasin (AA being a franchise movie need to be corrected down a bit, but still, we would not say that American Made floor is $20m):

 

Rankings	Movie	Diff from Yesterday	Total Likes
1	Girls Trip	+2,837	286,708
2	Maze Runner: The Death Cure	+1,729	3,481,856
3	Blade Runner 2049	+1,523	1,417,712
4	It (2017)	+1,485	1,150,440
5	American Made	+1,239	82,822
6	Dunkirk	+1,233	626,140
7	I Can Only Imagine	+949	118,366
8	Star Wars: The Last Jedi	+878	19,013,104
9	mother!	+840	94,050
10	American Assassin	+822	126,538

 

Youtube trailers views August 20 - August 26, 2017:

 

1	IT (Warner / New Line)	1.070 M	49.048 M	Sep. 8, 2017	4
2	Thor: Ragnarok (Disney)	952 K	85.908 M	Nov. 3, 2017	4
3	Justice League (Warner Bros.)	832 K	73.393 M	Nov. 17, 2017	4
4	Alpha (Sony / Columbia)	680 K	4.750 M	Mar. 2, 2018	2
5	The LEGO Ninjago Movie (Warner Bros.)	625 K	14.006 M	Sep. 22, 2017	5
6	American Assassin (Lionsgate / CBS Films)	552 K	8.085 M	Sep. 15, 2017	8
7	Flatliners (Sony / Screen Gems)	509 K	6.236 M	Sep. 29, 2017	2
8	mother! (Paramount)	351 K	8.405 M	Sep. 15, 2017	6
9	Pitch Perfect 3 (Universal)	341 K	16.016 M	Dec. 22, 2017	2
10	Star Wars: The Last Jedi (Disney)	235 K	46.372 M	Dec. 15, 2017	2

 

 

Not surprising for box office pro to stay with it as a bit bigger The Witch, about to double It come at Night, until some hype actually start, if it does.

AMERICAN assassin performing really well on social media. a breakout will surprise me tho

[WrathOfHan]

Just now, TwoMisfits said:

Gonna agree 100%...its free press is gonna get dwarfed with the pre-and post-IT aftermath, its audience will have just seen a movie the week prior, and it's still a Sept movie so there's a limit to how many folks head to movies when there are fall fests/football of all types/the new tv season kickoff/back to school requirements/etc...$20M floor is kinda a really optimistic position to take, especially on a movie that everyone is saying might piss you off...these types of movies (ala Detroit) are not doing well with audiences this year...

I think people are more open to brutal horror films than brutal films based on real life tragedies. 

[TwoMisfits]

1 minute ago, WrathOfHan said:

I think people are more open to brutal horror films than brutal films based on real life tragedies. 

Correct me if I'm wrong, but the anger is not rumored to be b/c of the brutality, but b/c of the way the movie chooses to wrap itself up.  I mean, this isn't like Saw or The Purge...the anger is not stemming from traditional horror-type moments, but the audience member actually getting mad at the conclusion...

 

That's a lot different ball game.  I mean, do people pay $20 knowing they are gonna be pissed at the movie (in some way) at the end? 

[That One Girl]

I just want to remind everyone that The Passion of the Christ is a 2 hour movie about Jesus being tortured and that made 370M domestic.

[Alli]

1 minute ago, TwoMisfits said:

Correct me if I'm wrong, but the anger is not rumored to be b/c of the brutality, but b/c of the way the movie chooses to wrap itself up.  I mean, this isn't like Saw or The Purge...the anger is not stemming from traditional horror-type moments, but the audience member actually getting mad at the conclusion...

 

That's a lot different ball game.  I mean, do people pay $20 knowing they are gonna be pissed at the movie (in some way) at the end? 

people will be curious to see what's it all about. we are talking OW. now the legs...that's a different story

[WrathOfHan]

Just now, That Tulip Guy said:

I just want to remind everyone that The Passion of the Christ is a 2 hour movie about Jesus being tortured and that made 370M domestic.

Also this. That had tons of controversy too.

[Barnack]

16 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

This isn't going to perform like The Witch and ICAN because it's not in the vein of those two. Just because it has an artistic flair to it does NOT mean it's a slow burn. Buzz has been increasing quite a bit the past couple of days, and that'll only explode once reviews are out on Tuesday. The (new?) trailer will be at many showings of It as well.

Maybe legs wise, but when talking OW do people knew from marketing if one is a slow burn and not the others, OW cannot really be affected that much by what the movie actually is, no ?

 

14 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

Don't forget this has Lawrence

I would imagine that the Director name (or more precisely the From the director of black swan and Requiem from a Dream) and cast is the only reason they are predicting to make 259% of what It came at night did and 144% of the Witch.

Edited September 1, 2017 by Barnack

[filmlover]

Uh, yeah, The Passion of the Christ's run was a freak occurrence with no comparison. Let's not even go there.

[Barnack]

4 minutes ago, That Tulip Guy said:

I just want to remind everyone that The Passion of the Christ is a 2 hour movie about Jesus being tortured and that made 370M domestic.

With subtitle......... that Gibson achieved commercial success with 2 movie in mostly unknown or death language is just crazy.

[TwoMisfits]

1 minute ago, Alli said:

people will be curious to see what's it all about. we are talking OW. now the legs...that's a different story

Yeah, but...this could be an Apes situation...no matter how good the movie, the timing after IT, with American Assassin, and before Kingsman means a lot of movies all going for the same R-rated audience at the same time...in a month where the audience is more limited to start with...

 

It should have released last weekend and gotten 2 weeks free of IT like Don't Breathe released last year...now it might go down in the wave of both premier and sequel and spinoff properties, which if they are all good, could keep this movie in an "Apes-like" situation with nowhere to go...

[TwoMisfits]

6 minutes ago, That Tulip Guy said:

I just want to remind everyone that The Passion of the Christ is a 2 hour movie about Jesus being tortured and that made 370M domestic.

And if Jennifer Lawrence were the known 2nd coming of the Messiah, we might have a similar movie situation:)...as of now, mother! and Passion have as much in common as Saw and Toy Story:)...