Weekend topic: BOM || Happy Death Day: $26.5M || Blade Runner: $15.1M || The Foreigner: $12.8M || IT: $6M || Annabelle: Creation at $300m WW

[Krissykins]

$11.3m is a great start for Happy Death Day. We’ll see tomorrow how much the release day helped. 

 

 

[picores]

21 minutes ago, a2knet said:

A combo of 4m in previews (1/3rd of OD) and great Sunday hold (-21%) due to Columbus Day Monday was gonna give a big drop this weekend. That it's escaping a 60% drop is something imo. Next weekend could be strong if it can hold on to screens (especially premium).

 

Can you see 100m total? It would need several good drops  next weeekends, although that projection from deadline seems a bit off to me. More like:

 

4.2

6.5 (+55%)

4.0 (-38%)

14.7m weekend (-55%)

[Mojoguy]

Isn't Happy Death Day just another name for Coco?

[DeeCee]

I keep seeing Hard Disk Drive. 

[a2k]

55 minutes ago, picores said:

 

Can you see 100m total? It would need several good drops  next weeekends, although that projection from deadline seems a bit off to me. More like:

 

4.2

6.5 (+55%)

4.0 (-38%)

14.7m weekend (-55%)

I don't think it will jump 55% on Sat as an R-rated movie.

 

It's Fri bump is 90%. Girl on the Train jumped 112% on 2nd Friday this same weekend last year and followed up with a 30% Sat bump.

http://www.the-numbers.com/box-office-chart/daily/2016/10/14

 

A little better than GotT, 35-40% Sat bump could happen for BR2049 as it jumped 30% from true Friday last weekend itself.

And this weekend it faced heavy comp from HDD on Friday the 13th. So using 35-40% Sat bump and 35% Sun drop,

4.2

5.7-5.9 (+35-40%)

3.7-3.8 (-35%)

= 13.6-13.9 (57.5-58.5% drop) / 59.1-59.4 cume

 

After that to add around 41 more for 100m seems nearly impossible. Thinking 90 tops.

 

Edited October 14, 2017 by a2knet

[picores]

17 minutes ago, a2knet said:

I don't think it will jump 55% on Sat as an R-rated movie.

 

It's Fri bump is 90%. Girl on the Train jumped 112% on 2nd Friday this same weekend last year and followed up with a 30% Sat bump.

http://www.the-numbers.com/box-office-chart/daily/2016/10/14

 

A little better than GotT, 35-40% Sat bump could happen for BR2049 as it jumped 30% from true Friday last weekend itself.

And this weekend it faced heavy comp from HDD on Friday the 13th. So using 35-40% Sat bump and 35% Sun drop,

4.2

5.7-5.9 (+35-40%)

3.7-3.8 (-35%)

= 13.6-13.9 (57.5-58.5% drop) / 59.1-59.4 cume

 

After that to add around 41 more for 100m seems nearly impossible. Thinking 90 tops.

 

 

Yeah i'm thinking 90m as the final number.

 

Kingsman is rated R and has been jumping around 55% last two Saturdays. 

[baumer]

It's hard to find a comparable for HDD.  There aren't a lot of horror films to open on a Friday the 13th to compare it to.  Keeping the F13th remake out of this, here's what I found:

 

If it were to follow Cabin in the Woods, it would open to about 26 million.

If it were to follow The Grudge 2, it would open to about 23.5 million

If it were to follow Last House on the Left, it would open to about 27.5

Insidious 2:  22.2 million

The Darkness:  24.0 million

 

Seeing how movies are more frontloaded now and seeing how this is not a sequel, DL's 26 could be a good number.  If I had to guess, I'd say a good range is 24-26 million.

 

 

[baumer]

That seems like a good number for Foreigner and IT looks to finally have a really good hold of about -36%.  I'd love to see Foreigner hit 40 million (doubtful) and IT make a push for 340 (also doubtful).

[baumer]

5 hours ago, a2knet said:

Add another horror to the list this year.

IT, Get Out, Split, A:C, HDD

These 5 combined gonna cross 800 dom, on a combined budget less than 1/10th of that.

 

I never thought there'd be a time again where horror had a recrudescence like it did in the 80's.  This year has been pretty epic for horror.

[the beast]

Projections for Weekends movies:

 

HDD:

 

12.3M

9.8M (-20%)

5.9M (-40%)

28M Weekend (2.275x)

 

Blade Runner 2049:

 

4.5M (+101.5%)

5.9M (+30%)

3.5M (-42.5%)

13M Weekend (-60%)

 

IT:

 

2M (+207.5%)

3.1M (+57.5%)

1.8M (-42%)

6.9M Weekend (-30.8%)

 

 

 

 

[baumer]

3 hours ago, the beast said:

Projections for Weekends movies:

 

HDD:

 

12.3M

9.8M (-20%)

5.9M (-40%)

28M Weekend (2.275x)

 

Blade Runner 2049:

 

4.5M (+101.5%)

5.9M (+30%)

3.5M (-42.5%)

13M Weekend (-60%)

 

IT:

 

2M (+207.5%)

3.1M (+57.5%)

1.8M (-42%)

6.9M Weekend (-30.8%)

 

 

 

 

 

It's 11.3 for HDD

[the beast]

6 minutes ago, The Last baumer said:

 

It's 11.3 for HDD

oh sorry i must of  mistyped then

[Rumpot]

2 hours ago, a2knet said:

I don't think it will jump 55% on Sat as an R-rated movie.

 

It's Fri bump is 90%. Girl on the Train jumped 112% on 2nd Friday this same weekend last year and followed up with a 30% Sat bump.

http://www.the-numbers.com/box-office-chart/daily/2016/10/14

 

A little better than GotT, 35-40% Sat bump could happen for BR2049 as it jumped 30% from true Friday last weekend itself.

And this weekend it faced heavy comp from HDD on Friday the 13th. So using 35-40% Sat bump and 35% Sun drop,

4.2

5.7-5.9 (+35-40%)

3.7-3.8 (-35%)

= 13.6-13.9 (57.5-58.5% drop) / 59.1-59.4 cume

 

After that to add around 41 more for 100m seems nearly impossible. Thinking 90 tops.

 

I think the length and pace of BR2019 make it a Saturday or Sunday movie much more than Friday.  Given the crowd it is pulling from I think it's rough to cram in after work/dinner, etc.  We'll see though

[Maxmoser3]

So a debut close to $25 million for Happy Death Day? That's really good considering it's a modest budget not-so horror horror film. It should probably have average holds and make north of $60 million in the states, while overseas could be half of that or on-par(that's a projection). Either way Universal and Blumhouse are enjoying a great 2017! Here's to 2018 as they have The Purge 4, and Halloween among many others... Jason Blum I take my hat off to you good sir

 

Blade Runner... RIP Blade Runner.

The Foreigner that's actually an ok start for an action film that's primarily overseas markets, and should break-even in the states.

[filmlover]

Yikes, that Professor Marston number from Deadline is even more pitiful than the one reported earlier. Poor Luke Evans and Rebecca Hall.

[Maxmoser3]

2 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Yikes, that Professor Marston number from Deadline is even more pitiful than the one reported earlier. Poor Luke Evans and Rebecca Hall.

Poison....

[WrathOfHan]

I think HDD will land around 24M.

Ouch @ BR.

Good for Foreigner.

I'm curious how much Friday the 13th will affect It's Saturday increase

That is fucking AWFUL for Marston. YIKES.

Ninjago will be ahead of MLP  

Good expansion for The Florida Project

[the beast]

IT's Run Projections (weekly):

 

Oct 13: 9.3M (318.1M Total)

Oct 20: 5.6M (323.7M Total)

Oct 27: 4M (327.7M Total)

Nov 3: 2.2M (329.9M Total)

Nov 10: 1.4M (331.3M Total)

Nov 17: 1.2M (332.5M Total)

 

Total: $335M (2.715x)

 

 

[MCKillswitch123]

Yeah, I just looked up what Professor Marston is doing, and...... yikes. Marshall and Victoria & Abdul both doing 3x more in a 800-900 theater range is shameful for Marston. Pity, but oh well.

 

Also, LMAO at My Little Pony falling below Ninjago, that's pathetic

 

Any chance that American Made riles up on Saturday and makes more for the 3-days than The Mountain Between Us? Cause I would really love it if AM reached the top 5 at least once more.

 

 

[WrathOfHan]

How my theater looks today:

 

Spoiler

MLP:

 

10:00 Sensory Friendly: 10/78

11:30: 16/69

2:45: 20/78

4:00: 0/78

5:35: 0/69

7:50: 0/78

10:00: 0/78

 

Foreigner:

 

11:05: 22/78

1:45: 2/78

4:30: 8/78

7:15: 13/78

10:15: 0/78

 

MBU:

 

10:45: 9/113

1:45: 16/124

5:00: 4/124

7:00: 0/78

10:10: 0/60

 

AM:

 

11:10: 7/63

3:20: 8/67

4:35: 3/63

7:20: 6/63

10:05: 0/63

 

HDD:

 

11:15: 15/78

1:30: 0/78

4:45: 4/78

8:00: 2/124

8:45: 0/67

9:45: 2/78

10:45: 0/124

 

Ninjago:

 

10:45: 18/60

2:10: 0/78

4:25: 2/60

7:50: 0/78

 

Kingsman:

 

11:00: 10/78

1:15: 4/60

4:40: 2/78

7:00: 0/60

10:20: 0/78

 

BR:

 

10:15: 4/124

11:15 3D: 6/78

12:30: 0/78

1:30: 2/113

2:00: 0/69

4:30: 0/124

6:30: 0/78

7:45: 0/113

8:30 3D: 0/69

10:00: 0/78

 

It:

 

10:30: 0/78

1:40: 0/78

4:00: 0/78

7:10: 3/78

10:25: 0/78

 

MLP: 46/528

Foreigner: 45/390

MBU: 29/488

AM: 24/319

HDD: 23/627

Ninjago: 20/276

Kingsman: 16/354

BR: 12/924

It: 3/390

Brave and Flatliners have sold nothing.

Edited October 14, 2017 by WrathOfHan