MovieMan89 Posted December 29, 2018 Share Posted December 29, 2018 1. Endgame - $750m 2. Episode IX - $550m 3. The Lion King - $450m 4. Captain Marvel - $425m 5. Frozen 2 - $415m 6. Toy Story 4 - $410m 7. Spider-Man: Far From Home - $405m 8. Detective Pikachu - $335m 9. Joker - $325m 10. Jumanji 3 - $300m 11. Secret Life of Pets 2 - $290m 12. Shazam - $275m 13. Hobbs and Shaw - $260m 14. IT: Chapter 2 - $250m 15. Aladdin - $240m 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cmasterclay Posted December 29, 2018 Share Posted December 29, 2018 Giving it a shot... 1. Avengers: Endgame - 680 2. Lion King - 635 3. Star Wars Episode IX - 610 4. Frozen 2 - 415 5. Spider-Man - 390 6. Captain Marvel - 375 7. Detective Pikachu - 340 8. Toy Story 4 - 320 9. Joker - 290 10. Secret Life of Pets 2 - 280 11. US - 265 12. Shazam - 250 13. IT 2 - 240 14. Jumanji 2 - 240 (if it even happens?) 15. Aladdin - 215 Very summer and spring heavy, especially considering that Jumanji 2 hasn't started production or even announced casting yet and I have doubts it drops by December. The one-two bunch of Bond and Wonder Woman leaving has hurt 2019 overall for sure, especially near the end. But it will still be a big year. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAR Posted December 29, 2018 Share Posted December 29, 2018 (edited) Haven’t done one of these in awhile. There’s no fancy analysis either. DOM only 1. Avengers: Endgame. 725 2. Lion King. 715 3. Episode IX. 685 4. Frozen 2. 420 5. Detective Pikachu 365 6. Spider-Man. 345 7. Toy Story 4. 320 8. Captain Marvel 285 9. It Chapter 2. 275 10. Shazam. 250 Edited December 29, 2018 by DAR Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
xxoo Posted December 29, 2018 Share Posted December 29, 2018 A lot of people under-appreciating secret life of pets, glass , Godzilla but overestimating toystory and frozen 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronJimbo Posted December 29, 2018 Share Posted December 29, 2018 22 minutes ago, xxoo said: A lot of people under-appreciating secret life of pets, glass , Godzilla but overestimating toystory and frozen everyone underestimating Alita 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jedijake Posted December 29, 2018 Share Posted December 29, 2018 I get the sense that the same people who are boosting Pikachu WAY up there ($300, $350, $400 million domestic) are putting Aladdin WAY down ($250, $200 million). Pattern? I mean it's all opinion at this point but it does seem interesting. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAJK Posted December 29, 2018 Share Posted December 29, 2018 1 hour ago, xxoo said: A lot of people under-appreciating secret life of pets, glass , Godzilla but overestimating toystory and frozen Toy Story has to be on the same level quality-wise as the previous 3 to make the numbers many of us are predicting. Not easy, but not impossible. Frozen I think people might still be underestimating. Sure, the internet loves to hate it. But that movie is still HUGE with kids. If it's great, I think it could become another Incredibles 2 Sticking with 450 for the time being however. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YM! Posted December 29, 2018 Share Posted December 29, 2018 (edited) Frozen 2 I can see taking the OW, November is weak, I doubt the family films from the time frame of September to November will be big (I still refuse to believe Spies In Disguise will be in theaters and will debut on Disney +, Abominable screams the $80M-$120M range, Addams Family will die after November and Sonic can make a little bit if good but not more than $200M and from the looks of it, O/U $100M seems right.), and I do think it’s loved amongst the GA but I expect some Frozen fatigue as well as loss of interest for younger boys than the first as it shifted to the female market. I think it’ll take the November OW and have Ralph 2’s 5 Day legs, that said it and Shrek 5 have the best chance to beat both Incredibles 2 records. $165M/$425M Toy Story 4 is somewhat overpredicted. This summer, for family films, it’s all about trailer views and TS4 hasn’t captured the same attention as Dory/I2 or even Cars 3 online, and it’s competition is tough, in the 6 weeks; Pikachu, Aladdin and Pets 2 all have strong chances of reaching $300M not to mention I suspect Lion King is a 4 quadrant murderer. However, TS4 has some nostalgia and no family competition until TLK. I can’t see higher than $350M, in fact I’d say sub $300M is more likely than over $400M. Edited December 29, 2018 by YourMother the Edgelord Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jessie Posted December 29, 2018 Share Posted December 29, 2018 Frozen 2 -640m Endgame - 630m Lion king- 540m SW9 - 520m Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jedijake Posted December 29, 2018 Share Posted December 29, 2018 The only issue TS4 has in reaching $500 million plus is that there is competition, mainly from SLOP2. But that competition will only hinder massive numbers and yield great numbers instead. I had originally predicted TS4 to make around $375 million domestic because I, like many others, thought 'WTF are they making another one when TS3 finished it nicely?". But I realized when I went to Disney World in March how massively popular TS is. So I cannot see it making UNDER $400 million. Just not $500 million. Wow predictions are all over the place! I guess that's good. Should make 2019 the most fun year to watch! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MovieMan89 Posted December 29, 2018 Share Posted December 29, 2018 The fandango most anticipated 2019 poll is reassuring for TS4. Its hard for animated movies to crack top 5 on that list, I think it’s just been Dory and I2 in the past. So seems like demand might be there. I’m still very nervous about it after those random teasers and awful plot synopsis. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cappoedameron Posted December 29, 2018 Share Posted December 29, 2018 26 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said: The fandango most anticipated 2019 poll is reassuring for TS4. Its hard for animated movies to crack top 5 on that list, I think it’s just been Dory and I2 in the past. So seems like demand might be there. I’m still very nervous about it after those random teasers and awful plot synopsis. Polls are irrelevant. People don't even know those even go on or exist. That's one of the worst ways to measure if there's interest or not. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilmac Posted December 29, 2018 Share Posted December 29, 2018 Endgame - $750m Episode IX - $700m Everything else and Glass. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MovieMan89 Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 (edited) 3 hours ago, Cappoedameron said: Polls are irrelevant. People don't even know those even go on or exist. That's one of the worst ways to measure if there's interest or not. Disagree. The Fandango yearly poll Is often overlooked for how accurate when it comes to gauging if a movie is going to be huge or not. If you go back and look at them through the years, whatever makes the top 5 has almost always opened big at least. The only movies to miss the top 5 anticipated on their respective year this decade and still gross over 400 are Frozen and Jumanji. It’s the 6-10 spots that tend to be a bit shakier. But it’s always a good sign for a movie being massive if it’s in the top 5 of that poll and a bad sign if it’s not. Edited December 30, 2018 by MovieMan89 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PPZVGOS Posted December 31, 2018 Share Posted December 31, 2018 On 12/29/2018 at 1:14 PM, Brainbug said: Yes. And somehow it still makes tons of money. People here (i personally think) tend to underestimate how bulletproof the SW Franchise is in the US. If Episode IX is well received by audiences, it will explode. The Last Jedi did immense damage, damage that no Jar-Jar or clunky one-liners could ever do. This was reflected in Solo's BO, and will be reflected again and more emphatically with Episode 9. You can quote me on this in a year's time. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brainbug Posted December 31, 2018 Share Posted December 31, 2018 Just now, PPZVGOS said: The Last Jedi did immense damage, damage that no Jar-Jar or clunky one-liners could ever do. This was reflected in Solo's BO, and will be reflected again and more emphatically with Episode 9. You can quote me on this in a year's time. And heres where we fundamentally disagree. After Attack of the Clones, the Star Wars franchise was officially declared dead and ruined by the "fans". Its a never-ending circle of a part of the SW fanbase which is incredibly hatefull to nearly everything related to new Star Wars films that come out. And still, after Attack of the Clones, Revenge of the Sith would go on to become the biggest hit of 2005. Because in my eyes, the vast majority of SW-moviegoers - the GA - doesnt care one bit about internet hatred for Star Wars. All the GA wants is an entertaining film that pleases them. And as long as Episode IX delivers exactly that, it will be a giant hit. Domestically, i see no real danger for main episode SW films. Overseas on the other hand is a different question. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Marston Posted December 31, 2018 Share Posted December 31, 2018 4 minutes ago, Brainbug said: And heres where we fundamentally disagree. After Attack of the Clones, the Star Wars franchise was officially declared dead and ruined by the "fans". Its a never-ending circle of a part of the SW fanbase which is incredibly hatefull to nearly everything related to new Star Wars films that come out. And still, after Attack of the Clones, Revenge of the Sith would go on to become the biggest hit of 2005. Because in my eyes, the vast majority of SW-moviegoers - the GA - doesnt care one bit about internet hatred for Star Wars. All the GA wants is an entertaining film that pleases them. And as long as Episode IX delivers exactly that, it will be a giant hit. Domestically, i see no real danger for main episode SW films. Overseas on the other hand is a different question. Attack of the Clones was considered by critics and fans to be an improvement over Phantom Menace and Revenge of the Sith has a better hook and was seen as the last Star Wars movie at the time Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brainbug Posted December 31, 2018 Share Posted December 31, 2018 Just now, John Marston said: Attack of the Clones was considered by critics and fans to be an improvement over Phantom Menace and Revenge of the Sith has a better hook and was seen as the last Star Wars movie at the time The history of the old star wars forums disagrees with you. Mainly TPM, but AotC is also heavily highlighted. Its goes to show that a part of the SW fan base will never be pleased, no matter what any filmmaker would try. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Darth Lehnsherr Posted December 31, 2018 Share Posted December 31, 2018 Toy Story 4 is an interesting case of double dipping on people's nostalgia of the franchise. I think it can very much get to $400M but don't see it touching Dory much less Incredibles 2 atm. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lordmandeep Posted December 31, 2018 Share Posted December 31, 2018 42 minutes ago, Brainbug said: The history of the old star wars forums disagrees with you. Mainly TPM, but AotC is also heavily highlighted. Its goes to show that a part of the SW fan base will never be pleased, no matter what any filmmaker would try. I think the problems the prequels and the new films have been quite different though. The prequels strength was the story and the path of Anakin while the weakness was the acting and such. The new films strength is the acting and that its very well shot but a lot of the backlash it seems to be is over the story so far and that lacks a clear focus. Now episode 9 may fix that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...