FANTASTIC BEASTS: THE CRIMES OF GRINDELWALD | 495.3 M overseas ● 654.9 M worldwide | Trans Rights are Human Right

[SMmadrid90]

2 hours ago, TimmyRiggins said:

Gotta love the overreactions by some. This will still turn in a profit for WB, not to mention the countless merchandising out there, hell, the screenplay is in the best sellers list and has been for several weeks now on Amazon UK, FR, US, along with the screenplay for FBAWTFT, it all trickles down to HP as well. 

 

That's the beauty of this. Also, it's funny how you don't see the pundits say that COS decreased from PS (might have been a different time but it still applies), domestically and worldwide, and POA did from COS. And TLJ from TFA, JW: FK from JW and also countless others (hell, The Lost World from JP). This happens. FBAWTFT may have had fantastic legs, there's bound to be a portion of people who didn't care that much for it who simply did not return for TCOG. 

 

Add to that a LOT more competition. FBAWTFT only really had Moana to worry about and that didn't even open as high as WIR did this year domestically. TCOG faced WIR which overperformed, Creed II which increased on Creed, The Grinch which has been having INSANE drops for weeks. Add to that Venom overperforming in China and taking a ton of screens away.

 

Then the film being more divisive and also a very different beast than FBAWTFT. China and SK didn't dig it: quite a decrease. Although some markets increased like France, Russia, Germany (will probably when all is said and done), etc. France has great WOM, so does Japan. In a way, it's encouraging because the film OPENED, it just faced more competition, and being more frontloaded and divisive, it'll end up lower with still a strong result.

 

David Yates said the third film would be a lot lighter and simpler which I believe will probably make it closer to FBAWTFT. I just hate the haters having a field day and ridiculously saying that it's done. This is a five part story, JK asked for it and you just need to have that span to be able to go from 1927 to 1945 (third film will jump a few years ahead), and to properly develop Dumbledore, Grindelwald and all the other characters. I believe that whatever hiccups (I personally love the film and don't have any issues with it) were felt by some with TCOG will all be resolved or will pay off when the other films come. Trust Jo. 

Finally one positive person! I totally agree when you say that the pundits don't mention the decreases in the first HP movies and the competition is way bigger than two years ago,add the bad reviews and mixed WOM and there you have almost -$200 M

[Ed Raven]

On 12/4/2018 at 2:59 PM, Ed Raven said:

 

After 3 weeks:  FB2   vs    FB1 (FB2 difference) 

 

China - $56.2M vs $82,4 (-26,2m) 3 weeks
U.K. - $33.8M vs $48,2 (-14.4m) 3 wks
Germany - $29.2M vs $23,6 (+5.6m) 3wks
Japan - $25.4M vs $27,6 (-2.2m) 2 wks
France - $24.4M vs $19,9 (+4.5m) 3 wks
Russia - $22.0M vs $20,3 (+1.7m) 3 wks
S. Korea - $18.0M vs $30,4 (-12.4m) 3 wks
Australia - $13.9M vs $17,3 (-3.4m) 3 wks
Italy - $13.5M vs $13,8 (-0,3m) 3 wks
Brazil - $13.4M vs $14,5 (-1.1m) 3 wks
Mexico - $12.5M vs $13 (-0.5m) 3 wks
Spain - $9.4M vs $10,2 (-0.8m) 3 wks

First of all, international and global totals went up from $423.3M and $568.5M to $425.1M and $570.5M, respectively. 

 

After 4 weeks:   FB2  vs   FB1 (FB2 difference) 

 

China - $57.1M  vs $83.8 (-26,7m) 4 weeks
U.K. - $37.5M vs $53.3 (-15.8m) 4 wks
Japan - $34.6M vs $36.3 (-1.7m) 3 wks
Germany - $33.3M vs $27.2 (+6.1m) 4 wks
France - $27.0M vs $22.0 (+5m) 4 wks
Russia - $23.1M vs $22.2 (+0.9m) 4 wks
S. Korea - $18.3M vs $32.4 (-14.1m) 4 wks
Australia - $15.2M vs $19.9 (-4.7m) 4 wks
Brazil - $15.0M vs $17.1 (-2.1m) 4 wks
Italy - $14.3M vs $15.1 (-0,8m) 4 wks
Mexico - $13.3M vs $14.0 (-0.7m) 4 wks
Spain - $10.8M vs $12.3 (-1.5m) 4 wks

 

Internationally, after four weeks of release FB2 is behind by 58m (425 OS for FB2 vs 483 for FB1). 

 

Globally, FB2 is now 112m behind the first installment (570 WW for FB2 vs 682 WW for FB1).

 

Germany and France, two happy islands playing their own sports. 

For the next one they need to cast a Chinese superstar ASAP 😆

[Rogerio]

On 12/2/2018 at 3:36 PM, Rogerio said:

This weekend, if we exclude China, the movie did almost 80% of the amount FB1 did OS-China. 

If it does 50% of the amount FB1 did OS-China after its third weekend and nothing more in China, it will do about 460M . 

I believe it can do at least 480M, and 500M is not impossible if it retains 75-80% from now on

This week it did about 77.5% of what FB1 did on its fourth week OS-China

If Crimes could somehow make 80% of what the first one did OS -china in the rest of its run, then we could have 500M

Don't think it is much probable.. 

Believe in 485-490M

[Welfin]

On 12/9/2018 at 3:03 PM, TimmyRiggins said:

That's the beauty of this. Also, it's funny how you don't see the pundits say that COS decreased from PS (might have been a different time but it still applies), domestically and worldwide, and POA did from COS. 

 

The delusions here are impressive. None of those films grossed as low as this. There's no way a film with a production budget of $220M and a marketing budget of $150M+ gets anywhere near profitability with a paltry sub-650 WW gross and a pathetic performance in the US. Studios don't spend this kind of money for this low of a return. LOL @ the merchandise argument. I'm sure those Newt Scamander toys are flying off shelves. 

 

The film is a bust, now imagine how poorly FB3 is going to do. Another $200M decline isn't out of the question given the hugely negative response to this one. Put a fork in this series, the five film plan is done. Maybe WB will let Rowling finish her awful pointless retcon-filled prequel story with one more (much cheaper) film and that'll be it.

 

 

[Barnack]

2 minutes ago, Welfin said:

 

The delusions here are impressive. None of those films grossed as low as this. There's no way a film with a production budget of $220M and a marketing budget of $150M+ gets anywhere near profitability with a paltry sub-650 WW gross and a pathetic performance in the US.

Source ?

 

And considering your numbers are good, the idea idea a movie would not be anywhere near profitability when almost tripling it's budget is quite the speculation.

 

Look at Amazing Spider Man 2 for example, it was near profitability with a production and release much higher than $370M, it has a production and world releasing cost of $455.74M, it made $709M oversea heavy (71.4%) and would it not have been of the profit participation of $44.25M it paid would have been profitable (was expected to loose around $20M) and that with Sony having not much coming from the Merchandise side for a movie like this.

 

Box office / (production + World P&A) ratio for Amazing Spider Man 2 was of 1.56 is Box office  / (production + participation bonus) of 2.3

 

A $640m on a $370M for Fantastic Beast would be of 1.73 if it give $40m in bonus would have a Box office / (production + participation bonus) of 2.46

 

That using 220m instead of the 200M figure we tend to see elsewhere (that would make sense) and the movie not adding 2.85x it's last weekend.

 

 

[TimmyRiggins]

Well, that was pathetic Welfin. And yes, 200 M is the number, FBAWTFT was 180M. It will make a profit. And unless for the 4th and 5th film, I doubt the franchise will either hit Potter numbers considering that well, it doesn't have the main trio even though it's the same world.  And my merchandise argument is not dumb. In 2011, merchandise accounted for 7 BILLION dollars worth of revenue out of 21 billion for the Harry Potter franchise. The Fantastic Beasts films also help all those aspects. The screenplay book is 15 bucks a pop, that adds up fast. Harry Potter films and Harry Potter related items are still very hot, you've got Cursed Child being a beast, etc, etc. It all trickles down. 

Edited December 11, 2018 by TimmyRiggins

[sfran43]

 

Edited December 16, 2018 by sfran43

[sfran43]

 

[RamblinRed]

Unfortunately that is a disappointing week.

Those reporting markets were 17.6M for the week, US and Canada added 6.3M for the week and the full total was 25.9.

About 49% drop week over week. 

With all the Holiday movies it is likely to lose alot of theaters the next couple of weeks. Feels like it is going to have to push just to get to 625 WW at this point.

 

 

[Ed Raven]

On 12/10/2018 at 10:56 PM, Ed Raven said:

After 4 weeks:   FB2  vs   FB1 (FB2 difference) 

 

China - $57.1M  vs $83.8 (-26,7m) 4 weeks
U.K. - $37.5M vs $53.3 (-15.8m) 4 wks
Japan - $34.6M vs $36.3 (-1.7m) 3 wks
Germany - $33.3M vs $27.2 (+6.1m) 4 wks
France - $27.0M vs $22.0 (+5m) 4 wks
Russia - $23.1M vs $22.2 (+0.9m) 4 wks
S. Korea - $18.3M vs $32.4 (-14.1m) 4 wks
Australia - $15.2M vs $19.9 (-4.7m) 4 wks
Brazil - $15.0M vs $17.1 (-2.1m) 4 wks
Italy - $14.3M vs $15.1 (-0,8m) 4 wks
Mexico - $13.3M vs $14.0 (-0.7m) 4 wks
Spain - $10.8M vs $12.3 (-1.5m) 4 wks

 

Internationally, after four weeks of release FB2 is behind by 58m (425 OS for FB2 vs 483 for FB1). 

 

Globally, FB2 is now 112m behind the first installment (570 WW for FB2 vs 682 WW for FB1).

 

Germany and France, two happy islands playing their own sports. 

For the next one they need to cast a Chinese superstar ASAP 😆

 

Comparison at Week 5 (4 for Japan*):   FB2  vs  FB1 (FB2 difference) 

 

China - $57.3M vs $84.5 (-27,2m) 5 weeks
Japan - $40.6M vs $41.5 (-0.9m) 4 wks*
U.K. - $38.9M vs $56.1 (-17.2m) 5 wks
Germany - $35.9M vs $29.1 (+6.8m) 5 wks
France - $30.2M vs $23.5 (+6.7m) 5 wks
Russia - $23.3M vs $22.8 (+0.5m) 5 wks
S. Korea - $18.4M vs $32.7 (-14.3m) 5 wks
Australia - $16.0M vs $21.0 (-5.0m) 5 wks
Brazil - $15.4M vs $18.3 (-2.9m) 5 wks
Italy - $14.5M vs $15.3 (-0.8m) 5 wks
Mexico - $13.4M vs $14.0 (-0.6m) 5 wks
Spain - $11.6M vs $12.7 (-1.1m) 5 wks

 

Internationally, after FIVE weeks of release FB2 is behind by 66m (444 OS for FB2 vs 510 for FB1).

This past week the gap grew by a further 8m.

Analysis: only two markets - China and the UK - count for the 67% ($44,4m) of that loss, a very significant percentage. If we count South Korea too, the loss share grows up to 89% (58,7m).

Looking at how international numbers are settling (maybe with the help of a better exchange rate, especially in Europe), and not counting China and SK's unexpectedly low figures, the overall drops aren't too worrying. Germany and France softened UK's harsh - but expected? - drop, since the first one was an unexpected breakout over there (25th all-time in £ revenue, a staggering result). Will the next one suffer because of the non-European setting? Could be.

 

Globally, FB2 is now 122m behind the first installment (596 WW for FB2 vs 718 WW for FB1).

This past week the gap grew by a further 10m.

Analysis: here, the undoubted black sheep is the US. A 27% drop (-56m) - a drop that will probably get worse at the end of the run - wasn't considered a possibility. Most people thought the film would gross between 190 and 250m. It looks like the film could even fail to reach $170m. What will WB do? Was Johnny Depp responsible for part of this disappointment? Was is that the fans were expecting something different, less grim and more Harry Potter-style?

I think the main reason behind the overall decrease is the overdone intricacy of the plot and the left-aside humanity of the characters and their relation(ship)s.

 

What are your thoughts? I trust JK and WB but I don't was this saga to keep falling until what could become a real box office flop (the fifth or even the fourth installment). The warnings are here. Drop David effing' Yates as a start and hire a real popular director. The man has directed 7 mega-blockbusters (8 with the next one, 9 if we count Tarzan). Give him a break. He needs to rest.

Edited December 20, 2018 by Ed Raven

[TimmyRiggins]

What the f are you talking about? Why drop David Yates, he's behind 5 wildly successful HP & FB films, and now one less well received and still successful FB film?! Heyman, WB, Rowling, they all love him, they're currently in pre production on the third one. He said a while back he'd do all of them and I believe him, he loves this universe, I doubt he's going to leave after the third one and let someone else bring it home. 

 

Also, PS made 317 M domestically, COS did 261. Exact same type of drop. Jurassic World? 652 M, FK 416. TFA 936, TLJ 620. 

It often happens that sequels, the second films oftentimes in franchises, decrease. Makes sense to me that similar to those films, there were people who didn't dig FBAWTFT that much (despite its great reception) and didn't come back, Hogwarts and Dumbledore be damned. 

 

I don't see why you say the drop will get worse by the end of the run. If anything, I'm willing to be the fourth and fifth ones will approach FBAWTFT's gross by being events, I mean, the mythic duel between Grindelwald and Dumbledore, and I'm sure other big things we don't know about. 

 

Johnny Depp had zero to do with it, the film is such a different beast compared to FBAWTFT, it's a thriller, it's much denser, way more complex, darker, FBAWTFT is an adventure, that and the audience being more mixed about it. David Yates has said the third one would be much lighter and simpler which will definitely help imo and I'm sure they'll take notice of the feedback and push the film on this, perhaps also make the Fantastic Beasts logo more prominent also this time instead of making it tiny on marketing material. 

 

It was never going to have the legs of FBAWTFT simply because of the reception and it being more frontloaded. I don't think the "left-aside humanity of the characters and their relationships" (what? Couldn't disagree more) had anything to do with it.

 

I also see no one discussing the fact that FBAWTFT had only Moana to face. TCOG got hit by WIR who overperformed at first (before having meh legs), Creed II, The Grinch which has been pulling insane holds for weeks, etc. 

 

I don't think the warnings are here, it will never be as popular as Harry Potter but it will bring in healthy amounts of money between theatrical revenue, ancillary and merchandise, not to mention that it all trickles down to Harry Potter as well. This is all money for them. I wouldn't be surprised if the third film perhaps decreases a bit from TCOG as POA did from COS, but ends up having a far better reception critically and better legs. Then fourth and five go back up, especially the fifth one similar to Deathly Hallows. 

Edited December 20, 2018 by TimmyRiggins

[MaxAggressor]

 

[sfran43]

Only $7.4M this weekend?! Does it have any other countries left to open in, or is this it?

 

[John Marston]

1 hour ago, sfran43 said:

Only $7.4M this weekend?! Does it have any other countries left to open in, or is this it?

 

 

Opened everywhere 

[Fullbuster]

5 hours ago, sfran43 said:

Only $7.4M this weekend?! Does it have any other countries left to open in, or is this it?

 

 

Sad end.

[Zakiyyah6]

So what like 620-630mil total. 

[Ed Raven]

That's a 36% drop from the last OS weekend, the total now being $458.4m. 

 

Japan alone should add another 15-20m. 

[John Marston]

Over 600m is good and profitable. The main problem is this movie was really badly received and basically killed interest in future installments 

[Godzilla]

1 hour ago, John Marston said:

Over 600m is good and profitable. The main problem is this movie was really badly received and basically killed interest in future installments 

I wouldn’t say it killed interest for FB3... If the quality gets better people will come. Domestically it probably will never reach Harry Potter numbers, but overseas it can rebound.

[TimmyRiggins]

Yeah, it's ridiculous, it didn't kill the interest. Some markets had bad WOM, others had good WOM. A lot of fans are very excited about the third film. And that third act really does a great job in making you want (unless you don't like the film at all) to see what comes next, right away. It wasn't "really badly" received, RT is one thing, it's at 53 on MT, it was mixed. Yates said the third would be a lot lighter and simpler, market it well, maybe it decreases a bit (as COS did from PS once again, or FK from JW, TLJ from TFA, etc, etc), but the legs will probably be better. Ultimately, and I love TCOG, it being more divisive and laying the groundwork for the sequels will pay off. 

 

I can the fourth and fifth ones getting back to FBAWTFT levels, possibly more, similar to DH Part 2

Edited December 25, 2018 by TimmyRiggins