Monday Numbers: Justice League 7.5M | Wonder 4M | Thor 2.5M

[Noodlebug]

If JL misses 200M...

[Frozen]

2 minutes ago, Noodlebug said:

If JL misses 200M...

I think that means Ben is done. 

[Barnack]

32 minutes ago, SoSaysI said:

Films don't fall as badly the week of Thanksgiving.  Look at Fantastic Beasts last year or Mockingjay the year before.

Oh my:

CF: -64.3% ($12,321,72)

MJ 1: -65.3% ($8,978,318)

MJ 2: -63.3% ($8,540,357)

FB: -63.5% ($6,758,059)

 

Seem like 63%/65% drop would have been the expected norm, yeah 6m would be terrible. Even FB made 6.7m after a much smaller 74m OW.

 

I would imagine that more and more, if it does not open well and that become the news, it will hurt movies even more than before, studio will try to manufacture bigger opening weekend even more next year (even bigger Thursday release opening if not even starting special franchise marathon Wednesday counting toward the new entry) and very high ticket price in some screening were demand get really high. Just to not have that terrible weekend news playing at the radio the monday.

Edited November 21, 2017 by Barnack

[ZeeSoh]

6 minutes ago, ZeeSoh said:

Yikes if those Monday numbers hold. Would be 69.5-73.5m drop. For reference Fantastic Beasts and both Mockingjay movies had first monday drop in the region of 63-65%

Since this is monday of thanksgiving weekend and with some schools/colleges being out the drops are relatively softer compared to 2-3 weeks before.

[WrathOfHan]

Last year's Monday holds:

 

1	1	Fantastic Beasts and Where To Find Them	WB	$6,758,059	-64%	-	4,144	$1,631	$81,161,446	4
2	2	Trolls	Fox	$2,011,769	-63%	+78%	3,945	$510	$118,174,975	18
3	3	Doctor Strange	BV	$1,964,998	-61%	-26%	3,694	$532	$183,592,935	18
4	4	Arrival	Par.	$1,346,916	-61%	-28%	2,335	$577	$45,056,386	11
5	6	Hacksaw Ridge	LGF	$788,993	-58%	-13%	2,883	$274	$43,560,205	18
6	5	Almost Christmas	Uni.	$683,210	-64%	-18%	2,379	$287	$26,320,900	11
7	7	The Edge of Seventeen	STX	$542,237	-55%	-	1,945	$279	$5,296,452	4
8	9	The Accountant	WB	$260,417	-55%	-28%	1,423	$183	$81,553,856	39
9	8	Bleed for This	ORF	$251,564	-57%	-	1,549	$162	$2,618,374	4
10	11	Shut In	EC	$207,695	-47%	+6%	2,006	$104	$6,249,988	11
11	10	Moonlight (2016)	A24	$160,904	-61%	+45%	650	$248	$6,805,694	32
12	12	Boo! A Madea Halloween	LGF	$136,107	-53%	-15%	1,171	$116	$72,270,466	32
-	-	Jack Reacher: Never Go Back	Par.	$126,037	-52%	-52%	1,110	$114	$56,783,508	32
-	-	Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk	TriS	$100,119	-53%	+876%	1,176	$85	$1,157,792	11
-	-	Loving	Focus	$91,473	-63%	+128%	137	$668	$1,843,991	18
-	-	Inferno	Sony	$80,479	-57%	-68%	770	$105	$33,478,253	25

 

 

How convenient that the Jacob Tremblay movie was the only thing to drop under 50% last year..........

[YM!]

Even the Twilight movies have had under 65% drops for the first Monday. This is bad.

[Dragon]

5 minutes ago, Noodlebug said:

If JL misses 200M...

What happens? is lighting going to strike us?

[Maxmoser3]

Justice League had the Dead weekends coming to save it. $210 million domestic total will be the low-end minimum for right now. Wonder may do $105-$110 million domestic, if it holds up strong. Which it would be Lionsgate’s first $100 million film since earlier in the year sign La La Land. 

[RichWS]

Hope that estimate goes up. It should make around 8. 

[Cookson]

Just now, Dragon said:

What happens? is lighting going to strike us?

Lighting might strike down on the DC universe.... Thus striking down DC fans. So, in a way, yes.

[Noodlebug]

1 minute ago, Dragon said:

What happens? is lighting going to strike us?

Worse. The DCEU as we know it is over.

[Dragon]

Just now, Cookson said:

Lighting might strike down on the DC universe.... Thus striking down DC fans. So, in a way, yes.

I doubt it.

[SoSaysI]

1 minute ago, Maxmoser3 said:

Justice League had the Dead weekends coming to save it. $210 million domestic total will be the low-end minimum for right now. Wonder may do $105-$110 million domestic, if it holds up strong. Which it would be Lionsgate’s first $100 million film since earlier in the year sign La La Land. 

What does this mean?  If this number holds, particularly the low end, that bodes terribly for its legs regardless of competition.  Batman v Superman had no competition last year and it still had embarrassing legs.

[Plain Old Tele]

Other than a bunch of gloating, I don't think it means much of anything.

[Dragon]

1 minute ago, Noodlebug said:

Worse. The DCEU as we know it is over.

So dramatic.

[Barnack]

3 minutes ago, Maxmoser3 said:

Justice League had the Dead weekends coming to save it. $210 million domestic total will be the low-end minimum for right now. Wonder may do $105-$110 million domestic, if it holds up strong. Which it would be Lionsgate’s first $100 million film since earlier in the year sign La La Land. 

Average A+ cinemascore multiplier is 4.8

 

That would put Wonder at 27.5 * 4.8 = 132m

 

And it opened the weekend before thanksgiving being probably not a bad place for longs legs (Coco, The stars, Man who invented christmas, Ferdinand is not bad competition but should have place)

 

Maybe it will not reach the average 4.8 multiplier, but holding strong for it would be above 120m I think.

[Maxmoser3]

3 minutes ago, Barnack said:

Average A+ cinemascore multiplier is 4.8

 

That would put Wonder at 27.5 * 4.8 = 132m

 

And it opened the weekend before thanksgiving being probably not a bad place for longs legs (Coco, The stars, Man who invented christmas, Ferdinand is not bad competition but should have place)

 

Maybe it will not reach the average 4.8 multiplier, but holding strong for it would be above 120m I think.

Ferdinand should have an ok start, and prove to have an ok run leading to January. Wonder will have Blind Side legs, which would be great! Lionsgate as a studio hasn’t had a sucessful year since 2013.

[NCsoft]

16 minutes ago, Barnack said:

 

I would imagine that more and more, if it does not open well and that become the news, it will hurt movies even more than before, studio will try to make up biggest opening weekend even more next year (even bigger thursday opening if not special franchise marathon wednesday) and very high ticket price in some screening were demand get really high. Just to not have that terrible weekend news playing at the radio the monday.

I was just thinking about this earlier, all the headlines on "JL being a box office disaster" can't help the situation, it might make people stay away from this thing altogether...

[YM!]

This guy is funny in a sad way.

[Barnack]

5 minutes ago, Maxmoser3 said:

Ferdinand should have an ok start, and prove to have an ok run leading to January. Wonder will have Blind Side legs, which would be great! Lionsgate as a studio hasn’t had a sucessful year since 2013.

7.5x legs in 2017 with an over 25m OW would be nice !, that the kind of movie that can do it obviously, but Blind Side legs would push it to 193m, probably a bit too optimistic but not impossible.

 

Hidden Figures had about the sames multiplier also but in December/January.

Edited November 21, 2017 by Barnack