Jake Gittes Posted November 30, 2017 Share Posted November 30, 2017 10 hours ago, WrathOfHan said: Long rang predictions: Coco: Dec 1: 28.8M (5.8M weekdays, 117M Total) Dec 8: 17.5M (3.4M weekdays, 137.9M Total) Dec 15: 8.5M (6.7M weekdays, 153.1M Total) Dec 22: 4.7M (7.5M weekdays, 165.3M Total) Dec 29: 4.7M (4.7M weekdays, 174.9M Total) Jan 6: 5.7M (1.3M weekdays, 181.9M Total) Jan 13: 1.6M (800k weekdays, 184.3M Total) Fianl Total: 188M (3.7x from 3 day/2.58x from 5 day) If Moana managed to drop 31% against a $155m Star Wars opener I don't see why Coco has to collapse over 50% against a $200m+ one. Also in 2006 Happy Feet (which is your best comparison here for Christmas/NY weekends) increased 48% on the Dec 29-31 weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YM! Posted November 30, 2017 Share Posted November 30, 2017 10 hours ago, WrathOfHan said: Dec 8: 17.5M (3.4M weekdays, 137.9M Total) Dec 15: 8.5M (6.7M weekdays, 153.1M Total) These two drops seem harsh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YM! Posted November 30, 2017 Share Posted November 30, 2017 2 minutes ago, Jake Gittes said: If Moana managed to drop 31% against a $155m Star Wars opener I don't see why Coco has to collapse over 50% against a $200m+ one. Also in 2006 Happy Feet (which is your best comparison here for Christmas/NY weekends) increased 48% on the Dec 29-31 weekend. TGD dropped 50% against TFA and RC but TGD didn’t have great WOM either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
That One Girl Posted November 30, 2017 Share Posted November 30, 2017 5 hours ago, Substandard Towels said: I just realized tonight that Friend Request is playing at my local discount theater 2 miles away. Tickets are $3.95 for their one daily showing (10:05pm). I almost want to go, buy a ticket, and walk out to see if I can be the 4 dollar gross for a day. Their seats are so hard and they only play movies you can rent so I never go there unless I get dragged by someone. HOLY SHIT WE FOUND THE ONE THEATER IT’S PLAYING AT 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RamblinRed Posted November 30, 2017 Share Posted November 30, 2017 12 hours ago, WrathOfHan said: Long rang predictions: Coco: Dec 1: 28.8M (5.8M weekdays, 117M Total) Dec 8: 17.5M (3.4M weekdays, 137.9M Total) Dec 15: 8.5M (6.7M weekdays, 153.1M Total) Dec 22: 4.7M (7.5M weekdays, 165.3M Total) Dec 29: 4.7M (4.7M weekdays, 174.9M Total) Jan 6: 5.7M (1.3M weekdays, 181.9M Total) Jan 13: 1.6M (800k weekdays, 184.3M Total) Fianl Total: 188M (3.7x from 3 day/2.58x from 5 day) Coco won't have the benefit of light family competition like Moana did. Moana really only faced Sing and Rogue One; Coco has to face Last Jedi, Ferdinand, Jumanji, and Greatest Showman and has Paddington over MLK weekend. This will still be a great finish with a better OS total than Moana though. JL: Dec 1: 14.7M (4.1M weekdays, 199.5M Total) Dec 8: 6.5M (1.9M weekdays, 207.9M Total) Dec 15: 1.9M (1.2M weekdays, 211M Total) Dec 22: 500k (600k weekdays, 212.1M Total) Dec 29: 500k (400k weekdays, 213M Total) Jan 6: 300k (100k weekdays, 213.4 Total) Final Total: 215M (2.29x) We'll see how it holds next weekend, but with a 60%+ drop in store this weekend, this may totally collapse once Star Wars opens I'll do Wonder later if I feel like it This is too low for JL and way too low for Coco. For that Coco number to happen Coco would have to drop 33% faster starting today through the end of its run than Moana did last year. That is completely unrealistic for a film with such strong metrics - A+ cinemascore, 97% RT score, 97% audience liked it on RT, 8.4 User Score on Metacritic. You way under predicted its first weekend (35m) in the weekend prediction thread a few weeks ago and are still way off. Coco is only $9MM back of Moana at this point and matching its dailies. It's not going to give up $51MM to Moana the rest of its run. It's much more likely to hit 230M DOM total than 188M. Sing was much stronger family competition last year than anything on the calendar this year - that did 270M and FB did 234M. Nothing on the list of releases this year is going to come close to 270 in the family space. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WrathOfHan Posted November 30, 2017 Share Posted November 30, 2017 4 hours ago, Krissykins said: These 3 drops in particular seem way off. Weekends and weekdays. Christmas Eve falling on a Sunday this year will lead to some very interesting holds. 1 hour ago, Jake Gittes said: If Moana managed to drop 31% against a $155m Star Wars opener I don't see why Coco has to collapse over 50% against a $200m+ one. Also in 2006 Happy Feet (which is your best comparison here for Christmas/NY weekends) increased 48% on the Dec 29-31 weekend. Keep in mind it p's also facing Ferdinand that weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WrathOfHan Posted November 30, 2017 Share Posted November 30, 2017 Christ, I haven't gottten this blasted for my predictions in months 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YM! Posted November 30, 2017 Share Posted November 30, 2017 Just now, WrathOfHan said: Christ, I haven't gottten this blasted for my predictions in months Both have some outrage against a DC movie and an animated movie supposed to go sub $200M. Coincidence I think not. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Krissykins Posted November 30, 2017 Share Posted November 30, 2017 1 hour ago, WrathOfHan said: Christmas Eve falling on a Sunday this year will lead to some very interesting holds. True but I don’t think it’ll impact on 3 full weeks. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwoMisfits Posted November 30, 2017 Share Posted November 30, 2017 13 hours ago, WrathOfHan said: Long rang predictions: Coco: Dec 1: 28.8M (5.8M weekdays, 117M Total) Dec 8: 17.5M (3.4M weekdays, 137.9M Total) Dec 15: 8.5M (6.7M weekdays, 153.1M Total) Dec 22: 4.7M (7.5M weekdays, 165.3M Total) Dec 29: 4.7M (4.7M weekdays, 174.9M Total) Jan 6: 5.7M (1.3M weekdays, 181.9M Total) Jan 13: 1.6M (800k weekdays, 184.3M Total) Fianl Total: 188M (3.7x from 3 day/2.58x from 5 day) Coco won't have the benefit of light family competition like Moana did. Moana really only faced Sing and Rogue One; Coco has to face Last Jedi, Ferdinand, Jumanji, and Greatest Showman and has Paddington over MLK weekend. This will still be a great finish with a better OS total than Moana though. JL: Dec 1: 14.7M (4.1M weekdays, 199.5M Total) Dec 8: 6.5M (1.9M weekdays, 207.9M Total) Dec 15: 1.9M (1.2M weekdays, 211M Total) Dec 22: 500k (600k weekdays, 212.1M Total) Dec 29: 500k (400k weekdays, 213M Total) Jan 6: 300k (100k weekdays, 213.4 Total) Final Total: 215M (2.29x) We'll see how it holds next weekend, but with a 60%+ drop in store this weekend, this may totally collapse once Star Wars opens I'll do Wonder later if I feel like it If Coco doesn't make back its production budget DOM, that would be a very disappointing finish...I mean, you've pretty much got it only above Good Dino and Cars 3 (inflation-adjusted)... I'm not sure I agree or disagree b/c every day the Lasseter news gets worse, the less likely people might pull the trigger for the movie...so you could be dead on... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WrathOfHan Posted November 30, 2017 Share Posted November 30, 2017 Just now, TwoMisfits said: If Coco doesn't make back its production budget DOM, that would be a very disappointing finish...I mean, you've pretty much got it only above Good Dino and Cars 3 (inflation-adjusted)... I'm not sure I agree or disagree b/c every day the Lasseter news gets worse, the less likely people might pull the trigger for the movie...so you could be dead on... Lasseter's accusations are having zero effect on its box office. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jake Gittes Posted November 30, 2017 Share Posted November 30, 2017 1 hour ago, WrathOfHan said: Christ, I haven't gottten this blasted for my predictions in months I'm just here to help relax man 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwoMisfits Posted November 30, 2017 Share Posted November 30, 2017 Just now, WrathOfHan said: Lasseter's accusations are having zero effect on its box office. See, I disagree - in a certain audience, zero effect. In my sphere, it's having an effect b/c moms are talking about it and talking what to do about it. And moms talking negatively about anything about your movie is bad. Is the effect $10, $100, $1000, $10K, $100K, $1M...who knows...but every unsold ticket is an effect...although trying to measure it is impossible... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BenedictL11 Posted November 30, 2017 Share Posted November 30, 2017 @WrathOfHan says the allegations have no effect on Coco, only predicts a 43% drop; yet, predicts even harsher drop for December 8? I've been following box office for almost 15 years and have never seen outrageous predictions like that. #ByeFelicia #BoyBye 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brainiac5 Posted November 30, 2017 Share Posted November 30, 2017 (edited) 14 minutes ago, BenedictL11 said: @WrathOfHan says the allegations have no effect on Coco, only predicts a 43% drop; yet, predicts even harsher drop for December 8? I've been following box office for almost 15 years and have never seen outrageous predictions like that. #ByeFelicia #BoyBye Edit: Edited November 30, 2017 by Brainiac5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AJG Posted November 30, 2017 Share Posted November 30, 2017 (edited) I’ve not met a single person that cares enough about these allegations to not see a movie or TV show that they want to see. We’re young, liberal, a lot of parents, but i don’t think anyone cares that much. Edited November 30, 2017 by AJG 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rebeccas Posted November 30, 2017 Share Posted November 30, 2017 57 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said: See, I disagree - in a certain audience, zero effect. In my sphere, it's having an effect b/c moms are talking about it and talking what to do about it. And moms talking negatively about anything about your movie is bad. Is the effect $10, $100, $1000, $10K, $100K, $1M...who knows...but every unsold ticket is an effect...although trying to measure it is impossible... I mean everything has an effect on someone, but unless it's a massive effect, it's not really worth worry about. $1 million is like chump change to Disney. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AJG Posted November 30, 2017 Share Posted November 30, 2017 1 hour ago, TwoMisfits said: If Coco doesn't make back its production budget DOM, that would be a very disappointing finish...I mean, you've pretty much got it only above Good Dino and Cars 3 (inflation-adjusted)... I'm not sure I agree or disagree b/c every day the Lasseter news gets worse, the less likely people might pull the trigger for the movie...so you could be dead on... Is the news cycle different in America because the Lasseter thing hasn’t been a major story over here since it happened? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MrPink Posted November 30, 2017 Share Posted November 30, 2017 (edited) I think most of the moms are gonna forget because the Matt Lauer story is the way bigger one. Edited November 30, 2017 by MrPink 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rebeccas Posted November 30, 2017 Share Posted November 30, 2017 Just now, AJG said: Is the news cycle different in America because the Lasseter thing hasn’t been a major story over here since it happened? It got bumped off by the Matt Lauer story here, as well as more allegations against Al Franken. I don't know, there's so much shit going on, I don't think anyone remembers Lasseter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
