Brainbug Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 34 minutes ago, ReyReyBattery said: Call me greedy, but I want 800. Seems silly to already say that it's off the table. Seeing Avatar going down again would make me happy. Very happy. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlashMaster659 Posted December 19, 2017 Author Share Posted December 19, 2017 2 minutes ago, hw64 said: DOS was actually release earlier in December than TLJ, and hence there were even less people on holiday for its first Mon-Thu than for TLJ. Furthermore, Christmas day fell in DOS's 2nd full week, the same as for TLJ (on the Wednesday instead of the Monday), and so, much like TLJ, most people were on holiday for its second and third full box office weeks. Despite TLJ having a similar setup in the weekdays to DOS, it's highly unlikely that TLJ's 3rd Mon-Thu run is going to equal its 1st Mon-Thu run in total gross like DOS's 3rd Mon-Thu did. This is just one example of a point on TLJ's run where it's going to fall significantly behind DOS. To achieve the same multiplier, it's going to need to make gains on DOS in other parts of its run. It's not impossible, but I don't find it likely. What's DOS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YSLDC Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 3 minutes ago, FlashMaster659 said: What's DOS? The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blaze Heatnix Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 3 minutes ago, FlashMaster659 said: What's DOS? Desolation of Smaug, I assume... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronJimbo Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 5 minutes ago, Brainbug said: Seeing Avatar going down again would make me happy. Very happy. agenda! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronJimbo Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 9 minutes ago, FlashMaster659 said: What's DOS? The Hobbit: Desolation of Smaug Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JonathanLB Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 Hobbit 2 would be just as easy to write and clearer Lol. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FantasticBeasts Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 15 minutes ago, Brainbug said: Seeing Avatar going down again would make me happy. Very happy. I wonder when will anyone dethrone the king worldwilde though... Oh well.. probably himself with Avatar 2... I don't see anything else getting remotely close... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YSLDC Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 (edited) Daddy's Home increased 16% from last Monday, with $454,704. Edited December 19, 2017 by YSLDC 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAR Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 39 minutes ago, Lor San Tele said: Bonapa keesa. Tolpa da bunky na booty cha naga o wanna meete chobodda. I think that was Sebulba 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Porthos Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 Thing is, I presumed from the get-go this would have less legs than TFA just because of the tone I had presumed it would have. Folks might recall that I, though I ended up loved it to pieces, banged the drum repeatedly and loudly before release that R1 would have weaker legs and general appeal than TFA simply because of subject matter/tone. I might have run comparison charts with TFA afterwards, but that's because of limited data (and that R1 wasn't THAT far off of it) for blockbuster megahits in December. The presumed tone was one of the reasons why my personal over/under for TLJ was 750. I only went with TLJ > Avatar because of the stellar reviews, and I still reckon it will be a close thing either way. The calendar itself is also, of course, a factor. But lets not kid ourselves, so it is the actual movie. Not because of a section of the fanbase allegedly flipping out but because of the appeal it might have with some of the GA (namely 7-12 year olds). After seeing the movie I think it'll actually play better with them than I feared. But it still won't have the same appeal that TFA had, I reckon. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brainbug Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 3 minutes ago, FantasticBeasts said: I wonder when will anyone dethrone the king worldwilde though... Oh well.. probably himself with Avatar 2... I don't see anything else getting remotely close... To be honest, i dont see any film in the next 15-20 years outgrossing Avatar Worldwide. It was the perfect storm (especially OS) and had the massive luck of fantastic exchange rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronJimbo Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 Just now, Brainbug said: To be honest, i dont see any film in the next 15-20 years outgrossing Avatar Worldwide. It was the perfect storm (especially OS) and had the massive luck of fantastic exchange rates. Exchange rates are almost cancelled out by inflation, yet tfa still $780m short. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Porthos Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 FWIW, I'm seeing quite a few sellouts for TLJ today at theaters in town for Discount Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FantasticBeasts Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 (edited) 5 minutes ago, Brainbug said: To be honest, i dont see any film in the next 15-20 years outgrossing Avatar Worldwide. It was the perfect storm (especially OS) and had the massive luck of fantastic exchange rates. It is such a staggering performance. Simply outstanding. $2b overseas is simply nuts no matter the exchange rates. I actually think that Avatar may have an outside chance of increasing If China goes fully on board for this (++1b ) Edited December 19, 2017 by FantasticBeasts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George Parr Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 (edited) 31 minutes ago, hw64 said: DOS was actually release earlier in December than TLJ, and hence there were even less people on holiday for its first Mon-Thu than for TLJ. Furthermore, Christmas day fell in DOS's 2nd full week, the same as for TLJ (on the Wednesday instead of the Monday), and so, much like TLJ, most people were on holiday for its second and third full box office weeks. Despite TLJ having a similar setup in the weekdays to DOS, it's highly unlikely that TLJ's 3rd Mon-Thu run is going to equal its 1st Mon-Thu run in total gross like DOS's 3rd Mon-Thu did. This is just one example of a point on TLJ's run where it's going to fall significantly behind DOS. To achieve the same multiplier, it's going to need to make gains on DOS in other parts of its run. It's not impossible, but I don't find it likely. Again, that doesn't matter. What matters is the specific schedule a movie is running on. The only reason why DOS even got mentioned, is because it shows that a huge monday drop doesn't mean that the multiplier can't still be in the 3.5 range. That's it, the rest has nothing to do with DOS. Past movies have shown that this kind of schedule sees the drop in the first weekdays that TLJ is currently having. The 2nd weekend drops big due to christmas eve on Sunday, followed by much better weekdays in the second week. The new years weekend has generally come in ahead of the christmas weekend, with a monday that acts like a holiday as well. Following weekends have seen drops in the 30% range, the first post-holiday one due to Sunday not being hurt, the next one due to the MLK-holiday. The schedule does allow for TLJ to come out of the holidays with 600m+, while doing identical numbers to TFA during those last days of the holidays / first days beyond that. That doesn't mean that it will definately do so, or hit the 770m required for a 3.5 multiplier, but it is very much something that historic precedent would account for. Edited December 19, 2017 by George Parr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronJimbo Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 1 minute ago, FantasticBeasts said: It is such a staggering performance. Simply outstanding. $2b overseas is simply nuts no matter the exchange rates. I actually think that Avatar may have an outside chance of increasing If China goes fully on board for this (++1 It's going to get an extended release in China and make $3b world wide, I have confidence in the one and only Cameron. This ain't bravado either, I've got a ~$50 dollar bet with @Lor San Tele that it makes $3b. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Porthos Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 Just now, IronJimbo said: I've got a ~$50 dollar bet with @Lor San Tele that it makes $3b. Aw, fuck. Why you gotta do this to me Tele? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hw64 Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 2 minutes ago, Brainbug said: To be honest, i dont see any film in the next 15-20 years outgrossing Avatar Worldwide. It was the perfect storm (especially OS) and had the massive luck of fantastic exchange rates. Ticket price inflation since 2009 in a lot of overseas markets goes quite a way to cancelling out the exchange rate differences, so it's not as big of a disadvantage for current films as you might think. For example, in the UK, TFA grossed $163.6m and sold 17m tickets (average $9.62 tickets) while Avatar grossed $150m and sold 16.5m tickets (average $9.08 tickets). The UK is a slightly exceptional case though, in that ticket price inflation has outstripped the change in exchange rates, resulting in higher ticket prices in dollars (or at least, this was the case in 2015 - the pound has slipped a bit since then). In most other markets, the ticket price increases only partially offset the exchange rates, so Avatar still has higher ticket prices in dollars than current blockbusters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Porthos Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 Just now, Porthos said: Aw, fuck. Why you gotta do this to me Tele? *thinks* At least it isn't a club. The @Lor San Tele Curse doesn't count if it isn't a club, right? RIGHT? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
