Monday #s - TLJ 21.6M

[redfirebird2008]

3 minutes ago, stuart360 said:

Its not 100% safe but i think it is. I have already seen predictions of 80-90mil for Christmas weekend for this and thats low imo, especially when IMO this will fall off a cliff after New Year.

 

Christmas Eve on Sunday deflates the weekend because it will probably drop 50% or more on Christmas Eve, but then it will have incredible numbers on Christmas Monday and Discount Tuesday with a lot of people on vacation. It could possibly hit $80m on those two days. The numbers after that going all the way through Discount Tuesday right after New Year's Monday will be off the charts. It could be over $600m through January 2nd.

[Elessar]

3 minutes ago, narniadis said:

Again your stupidity is showing. 

No need for personal insults...

[baumer]

3 hours ago, George Parr said:

Does it matter?

TFA made 248m and still ended up with the biggest multiplier of all 100m+ releases.

 

People need to stop assuming that big numbers automatically mean that the behaviour changes drastically compared to other movies that followed a similar schedule or were in a similar situation. While there is always a bit of wiggle room, you can't just ignore general trends connected to specific schedules. The Sunday and Monday drop we have seen from TLJ are right in line with the historic precedents of its schedule.

 

Great post.

 

The point that a lot of us are making is that you can never compare apples to apples when the box office is concerned.  TLJ doesn't have the same amount of people to see the movie during the day or week right now as TFA did at this time.  So the numbers and drops are going to be more extreme.

[IronJimbo]

4 minutes ago, George Parr said:

Does it matter?

TFA made 248m and still ended up with the biggest multiplier of all 100m+ releases.

 

People need to stop assuming that big numbers automatically mean that the behaviour changes drastically compared to other movies that followed a similar schedule or were in a similar situation. While there is always a bit of wiggle room, you can't just ignore general trends connected to specific schedules. The Sunday and Monday drop we have seen from TLJ are right in line with the historic precedents of its schedule.

What happens when Avatar 2 opens to $200m, should we expect $2b domestic?

[George Parr]

5 minutes ago, stuart360 said:

Its not 100% safe but i think it is. I have already seen predictions of 80-90mil for Christmas weekend for this and thats low imo, especially when IMO this will fall off a cliff after New Year.

Why would it fall off a cliff after new year?

 

Looking at examples from the past, this schedule actually leads to pretty small drops right afterwards. Last time around, most movies dropped in the high 30s to low 40s range from new years weekend to the one after. Following that is MLK-day, so yet another soft drop due to a holiday.

 

This particular schedule is known for increasing weekdays between christmas and new year, plus a new years weekend that increases over the christmas one. Followed by relatively soft drops in the weekends afterwards. Now, things could be a bit different, but there is little reason to assume that something drastically different is going to happen this time around.

[JonathanLB]

To me it’s more likely than not likely it beats Avatar. The multiple only needs to be Rogue One level, so yes, why wouldn’t it be likely to have a similar multiple or better than that?

 

Also “drop off a cliff” after New Year’s? Not as likely when you have far more people off school that first week. As I mentioned that’s one of my employees. Also you need to think full picture here, if the kids aren’t off school yet even if they don’t care as much about Star Wars, that still means parents are in work mode too. LOTS of parents only take off WHEN their kids are off! That’s because now they don’t want to pay for daycare. These two things are closely linked. Why would you say kids not liking SW (and LO fucking L that makes you sound dumb) means magically parents aren’t affected at all by their kids not being off?! 

 

Jesus it’s going to be nice in 3 weeks to look back at this thread I swear.

[The Panda]

Also, inb4 people panic over the weekend drop for TLJ because Christmas Eve is on a Sunday this year (and no Christmas day in the weekend to makeup for it)

[FantasticBeasts]

My god all the essays and thinkpieces. Wait for a week at least before jumping the gun. 

Are we gonna do this whole shit every day from now on?

[hw64]

13 minutes ago, George Parr said:

Does it matter?

TFA made 248m and still ended up with the biggest multiplier of all 100m+ releases.

 

People need to stop assuming that big numbers automatically mean that the behaviour changes drastically compared to other movies that followed a similar schedule or were in a similar situation. While there is always a bit of wiggle room, you can't just ignore general trends connected to specific schedules. The Sunday and Monday drop we have seen from TLJ are right in line with the historic precedents of its schedule.

Yes, it does matter. As an example, DOS's 3rd set of weekdays (Mon-Thu) were about the same size as its first set of weekdays. Good luck seeing $20m grosses in 2 weeks. Not going to happen with such high figures.

[Lancelot Gold]

1 minute ago, hw64 said:

Yes, it does matter. As an example, DOS's 3rd set of weekdays (Mon-Thu) were about the same size as its first set of weekdays. Good luck seeing $20m grosses in 2 weeks. Not going to happen with such high figures.

Wait, you don't think Saturday the 30th will be above 20m?

[aabattery]

Call me greedy, but I want 800. Seems silly to already say that it's off the table.

[hw64]

6 minutes ago, lancelot123 said:

Wait, you don't think Saturday the 30th will be above 20m?

I'm saying that unlike DOS's run, we won't be seeing similar-sized weekdays between January 1st and January 4th to what we're going to see this week ($20-$24m per day).
 

January 1st might be close because of New Year's, but other than that, no.

Edited December 19, 2017 by hw64

[redfirebird2008]

1 minute ago, ReyReyBattery said:

Call me greedy, but I want 800. Seems silly to already say that it's off the table.

 

800 is still in play for sure.

[narniadis]

4 minutes ago, hw64 said:

I'm saying we won't be seeing similar-sized weekdays between January 1st and January 4th to what we're going to see this week ($20-$24m per day).
 

January 1st might be close because of New Year's, but other than that, no.

January 1 is more likely to be 35m than 20m 

 

The rest I will give ya 😉

[RichWS]

Watto would be proud of the haggling over numbers. 

[George Parr]

15 minutes ago, hw64 said:

Yes, it does matter. As an example, DOS's 3rd set of weekdays (Mon-Thu) were about the same size as its first set of weekdays. Good luck seeing $20m grosses in 2 weeks. Not going to happen with such high figures.

No, it doesn't matter. The point was about the multiplier, not whether TLJ would behave 100% the same as DOS did. A different schedule leads to a different behaviour, but all christmas schedules have one thing in common: there is one period where they really excel compared to other schedules. A sizeable drop on some days isn't a bad sign if that kind of drop is completely normal for that kind of schedule.

 

What matters is what the historical behaviour of a schedule suggests, and how closely a movie is following it. So far, TLJ is following it to the letter. If TLJ continues that path, it would actually come out of the holidays with very similar days as TFA, just quite a bit behind.

Edited December 19, 2017 by George Parr

[redfirebird2008]

4 minutes ago, narniadis said:

January 1 is more likely to be 35m than 20m 

 

The rest I will give ya 😉

 

New Year's Day gonna be epic for sure judging by the historical result on Monday 1/1/2007.

 

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/daily/chart/?view=1day&sortdate=2007-01-01&p=.htm

[Plain Old Tele]

5 minutes ago, RichWS said:

Watto would be proud of the haggling over numbers. 

 

Bonapa keesa. Tolpa da bunky na booty cha naga o wanna meete chobodda.

[cannastop]

15 minutes ago, ReyReyBattery said:

Call me greedy, but I want 800. Seems silly to already say that it's off the table.

You're greedy.

[hw64]

13 minutes ago, George Parr said:

No, it doesn't matter. The point was about the multiplier, not whether TLJ would behave 100% the same as DOS did. A different schedule leads to a different behaviour, but all christmas schedules have one thing in common: there is one period where they really excel compared to other schedules. A sizeable drop on some days isn't a bad sign if that kind of drop is completely normal for that kind of schedule.

 

What matters is what the historical behaviour of a schedule suggests, and how closely a movie is following it. So far, TLJ is following it to the letter. If TLJ continues that path, it would actually come out of the holidays with very similar days as TFA, just quite a bit behind.

DOS was actually release earlier in December than TLJ, and hence there were even less people on holiday for its first Mon-Thu than for TLJ. Furthermore, Christmas day fell in DOS's 2nd full week, the same as for TLJ (on the Wednesday instead of the Monday), and so, much like TLJ, most people were on holiday for its second and third full box office weeks. Despite TLJ having a similar setup in the weekdays to DOS, it's highly unlikely that TLJ's 3rd Mon-Thu run is going to equal its 1st Mon-Thu run in total gross like DOS's 3rd Mon-Thu did.

 

This is just one example of a point on TLJ's run where it's going to fall significantly behind DOS. To achieve the same multiplier, it's going to need to make gains on DOS in other parts of its run. It's not impossible, but I don't find it likely.