Monday #s - TLJ 21.6M

[Porthos]

3 minutes ago, redfirebird2008 said:

 

I can just as easily post dozens and dozens of YouTube videos featuring real people who are not happy with the movie. It's not 100% bots and it's not 100% humans posting the negative reviews on RT.

Of course there are people legitimately upset.  Nearly no one is disputing that.

 

Saying how many people are upset as a percentage of either the fanbase or the general audience is next to impossible right now thanks to all the monkey feces being thrown about.  And we can't point to things like Rotten Tomatoes Audience Score because of it.

[Plain Old Tele]

2 minutes ago, Johnny Tran said:

How many are also voting 5/5?   Plenty.  

In my brief existence on this earth, people are way more likely to troll or game the system in order to trash something than praise it. 

[Porthos]

1 minute ago, Johnny Tran said:

How many are also voting 5/5?   Plenty.  

Over and over again though?  It's the game the system bit I was pointing to.

 

And even if there are people deciding to do that now, if it's an attempt to stop the tanking of the rating it's just hardcore versus hardcore that doesn't tell us much at all.  Which makes the RT user reviews even more useless than it normally is.

 

Maybe this can be an object lesson for folks not to put too much trust in self-selecting surveys.

 

 

 

 

 

Nah.  Probably not.

[DAR]

1 minute ago, Lor San Tele said:

In my brief existence on this earth, people are way more likely to troll or game the system in order to trash something than praise it. 

 "brief exsistence". 

 

[redfirebird2008]

Just now, Porthos said:

Of course there are people legitimately upset.  Nearly no one is disputing that.

 

Saying how many people are upset as a percentage of either the fanbase or the general audience is next to impossible right now thanks to all the monkey feces being thrown about.  And we can't point to things like Rotten Tomatoes Audience Score because of it.

 

Yes, I have said from Day 1 we should watch the legs at the box office. I think the legs will be pretty solid but not over the top awesome like TFA...which makes the Cinemascore stuff that people keep referring to pretty flawed in its own right.

 

Nobody seemed to care about "A" Cinemascores when TDKR and Ultron both received that grade and came up way short of their predecessors in box office legs and total.

[Porthos]

5 minutes ago, redfirebird2008 said:

 

Yes, I have said from Day 1 we should watch the legs at the box office. I think the legs will be pretty solid but not over the top awesome like TFA...which makes the Cinemascore stuff that people keep referring to pretty flawed in its own right.

 

Nobody seemed to care about "A" Cinemascores when TDKR and Ultron both received that grade and came up way short of their predecessors in box office legs and total.

Anyone who thought this would get TFA's legs really was being over optimistic even before the movie came out. 

 

And who, pray tell, is referring to the Cinemascore around these parts?  Pretty sure an entirely different survey is being cited than that one.

Edited December 20, 2017 by Porthos

[Johnny Tran]

8 minutes ago, Lor San Tele said:

In my brief existence on this earth, people are way more likely to troll or game the system in order to trash something than praise it. 

If you look on IMDB that's not the case.  There's over three times as many 10's as there are 1's.  

[Porthos]

2 minutes ago, Johnny Tran said:

If you look on IMDB that's not the case.  There's over three times as many 10's as there are 1's.  

  

 

(IMDB also has some sort of control mechanism now, AIUI)

Edited December 20, 2017 by Porthos

[Porthos]

Anyone else having flashbacks to the R1 First Monday discussions (if with slightly different talking points)?

 

Just me?  No?  Yes?

 

Just checking.

[DAR]

I'm starting to pine for the days of Marvel/DC talk.

 

 

[redfirebird2008]

2 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Anyone who thought this would get TFA's legs really was being over optimistic even before the movie came out. 

 

And, who pray tell is referring to the Cinemascore around these parts?  Pretty sure an entirely different survey is being cited than that one.

 

Deadline is pushing that one hard and I saw Empire reference it. I don't think Comscore is that accurate either. We have way too many examples of movies with vastly different multipliers despite having very similar scores from these industry surveys.

 

Ultron is probably the craziest article I can remember Deadline writing. They predicted it would have something like a 3.5 or better multiplier based on those positive industry surveys even though the first Avengers with the same release date and some of the best WOM we have ever seen ended up with a 3.00 multiplier. I still cannot believe a professional box office reporter actually wrote the article.

 

Then again we also have the Forbes guy who makes his fair share of good points and then repeatedly uses the weekend multiplier for non-Friday openers. Saw a really bad article he wrote the other day where he didn't do a very good job analyzing the frontloadedness of the prequels (especially Clones and Sith).

[RichWS]

I give this thread a 1. 

[Plain Old Tele]

8 minutes ago, Johnny Tran said:

If you look on IMDB that's not the case.  There's over three times as many 10's as there are 1's.  

 

Your assumption is that anyone who votes it a 10 is trying to troll the system.

 

edit: an example -- I've rated something like 2000 movies on IMDB. I've given out 14 1's and 60 10's -- and essentially all those 1's are for stuff like MANOS: THE HANDS OF FATE. And I hand out far fewer 10's than most.

[That One Girl]

1 minute ago, DARth DAR said:

I'm starting to pine for the days of Marvel/DC talk.

 

 

 

Rank the Marvel movies

[Porthos]

2 minutes ago, redfirebird2008 said:

 

Deadline is pushing that one hard and I saw Empire reference it. I don't think Comscore is that accurate either. We have way too many examples of movies with vastly different multipliers despite having very similar scores from these industry surveys.

 

Ultron is probably the craziest article I can remember Deadline writing. They predicted it would have something like a 3.5 or better multiplier based on those positive industry surveys even though the first Avengers with the same release date and some of the best WOM we have ever seen ended up with a 3.00 multiplier. I still cannot believe a professional box office reporter actually wrote the article.

 

Then again we also have the Forbes guy who makes his fair share of good points and then repeatedly uses the weekend multiplier for non-Friday openers. Saw a really bad article he wrote the other day where he didn't do a very good job analyzing the frontloadedness of the prequels (especially Clones and Sith).

 

Pfft.  Deadline.

 

That's all I have to say.

 

(except that it helps very very VERY slightly to reinforce positive buzz in the press, which ain't nothing)

Edited December 20, 2017 by Porthos

[junkshop36]

I see we’re having the same discussion about holiday multipliers that we have every single year. Round and round we go. 

 

The last two years we’ve had two of the biggest OW ever in December. One ends with a 3.78 and the other with a 3.46, which is right in line with where most movies released this month generally land. And yet now we’ve got people talking about 3.1x, 3x and even sub 3x! 

 

Come on now 

[junkshop36]

5 minutes ago, redfirebird2008 said:

 

Deadline is pushing that one hard and I saw Empire reference it. I don't think Comscore is that accurate either. We have way too many examples of movies with vastly different multipliers despite having very similar scores from these industry surveys.

 

Ultron is probably the craziest article I can remember Deadline writing. They predicted it would have something like a 3.5 or better multiplier based on those positive industry surveys even though the first Avengers with the same release date and some of the best WOM we have ever seen ended up with a 3.00 multiplier. I still cannot believe a professional box office reporter actually wrote the article.

 

Then again we also have the Forbes guy who makes his fair share of good points and then repeatedly uses the weekend multiplier for non-Friday openers. Saw a really bad article he wrote the other day where he didn't do a very good job analyzing the frontloadedness of the prequels (especially Clones and Sith).

 

I think they talked about the average multipliers for movies based on their cinema scores so because it got an A it was going to have a 3.5x or better lol

[RichWS]

Let's stop pussyfooting: It's a dud.

[Porthos]

Let's pull back a second.

 

Most of us knew that this would have a largeish sized Mon drop because of the calendar placement, right (and the sheer size of the opening)?  

 

It was a little worse than R1's with more people at work/school.

 

Soooo.  What's the talking point here again?  Hell, this doesn't increase all that much today (if at all), what's the talking point there as well?  Coz, tbh, I won't be surprised if it stays flat or has a minimal increase*.

 

* getting this in now, for street cred and to avert charges of me shifting my talking points.

[redfirebird2008]

1 minute ago, junkshop36 said:

 

I think they talked about the average multipliers for movies based on their cinema scores so because it got an A it was going to have a 3.5x or better lol

 

Yep...

 

"Now the question is, how high can these superheros fly? Avengers turned around a 3x multiple of its bow for a final stateside cume of $623.4M — and that’s off an A+ CinemaScore which typically carries an average 4.8x multiple. Ultron earned an A, which typically translates into a 3.6x multiple, which would put the sequel well north of $650M using that B.O. yardstick."