Monday #s - TLJ 21.6M

[Plain Old Tele]

Just now, Porthos said:

*thinks*

 

At least it isn't a club.  The @Lor San Tele Curse doesn't count if it isn't a club, right?  RIGHT? 

 

I had an extremely successful club this year.  

[IronJimbo]

1 minute ago, Porthos said:

*thinks*

 

At least it isn't a club.  The @Lor San Tele Curse doesn't count if it isn't a club, right?  RIGHT? 

I see, I'll let Tele create the club then.

[Brainbug]

2 minutes ago, FantasticBeasts said:

It is such a staggering performance. Simply outstanding. $2b overseas is simply nuts no matter the exchange rates.

I actually think that Avatar may have an outside chance of increasing If China goes fully on board for this (++1b )

 

In order to increase from the first one, Avatar 2 would need to indeed have that 1B from China (which is not impossible, but unlikely i think) and have relatively decent to small decreases from the rest of the world markets, which i dont see.

 

For example:

 

France grossed 175M and Germany 162M. Both figures are impossible for Avatar 2. Same goes with Russia (117M) or Japan (171M). These are one-in-a-lifetime grosses, propelled by the fantastic exchange rates from late 2009/early 2010 and the 3D craze which has watered down everywhere in the world.

 

Ofc, maybe im wrong. But no matter how it ends up doing, im very much looking forward to Avatar 2s run. It will be exciting for sure.

[Porthos]

1 minute ago, Lor San Tele said:

 

I had an extremely successful club this year.  

Blackhat finally got released in China? 

[SoSaysI]

2 minutes ago, hw64 said:

Ticket price inflation since 2009 in a lot of overseas markets goes quite a way to cancelling out the exchange rate differences, so it's not as big of a disadvantage for current films as you might think.

 

For example, in the UK, TFA grossed $163.6m and sold 17m tickets (average $9.62 tickets) while Avatar grossed $150m and sold 16.5m tickets (average $9.08 tickets). The UK is a slightly exceptional case though, in that ticket price inflation has outstripped the change in exchange rates, resulting in higher ticket prices in dollars (or at least, this was the case in 2015 - the pound has slipped a bit since then). In most other markets, the ticket price increases only partially offset the exchange rates, so Avatar still has higher ticket prices in dollars than current blockbusters.

But here is the issue, unless you have admissions data how do you account for 3d share and impact on ticket prices?  Avatar had a 3d share we likely won't ever see again so its average ticket price was higher than your average 2009 movie.

[Plain Old Tele]

Just now, Porthos said:

Blackhat finally got released in China? 

 

 

[AndyK]

1 hour ago, FantasticBeasts said:

My god all the essays and thinkpieces. Wait for a week at least before jumping the gun. 

Are we gonna do this whole shit every day from now on?

Yiu got something better to do ?

[Barnack]

14 minutes ago, Brainbug said:

 

To be honest, i dont see any film in the next 15-20 years outgrossing Avatar Worldwide. It was the perfect storm (especially OS) and had the massive luck of fantastic exchange rates.

With that 2017 China box office:

1

Wolf Warrior 2

n/a

$854,248,869

7/27

 

That make it somewhat likely to happen in the 2020s, if a movie can often reach 1.5b in China alone by 2025, it would only need a 50/50 oversea-china ratio to reach 3B, no one saw Titanic or ET or many of the bigger movie ever coming either.

[Brainbug]

1 minute ago, Barnack said:

With that 2017 China box office:

1

Wolf Warrior 2

n/a

$854,248,869

7/27

 

That make it somewhat likely to happen in the 2020s, if a movie can often reach 1.5b in China alone by 2025, it would only need a 50/50 oversea-china ratio to reach 3B, no one saw Titanic or ET or many of the bigger movie ever coming either.

 

Well, cant argue against that. But didnt the chinese market grow a bit slower than anticipated? Is it still expected to overtake DOM as biggest market in the world by the end of this decade?

 

Im interested as to when we will have the first Chinese movie in the Top 10 Worldwide (all-time).

[redfirebird2008]

7 minutes ago, Lor San Tele said:

 

 

 

Poor Tele

 

[a2k]

		Movie	Distributor	Gross	Change	Thtrs.	Per Thtr.	Total Gross	Days
1	(1)	Star Wars Ep. VIII: The Las…	Walt Disney	$21,600,000	-58%	4,232	$5,104	$241,609,584	4
-	(2)	Ferdinand	20th Century Fox	$1,206,612	-71%	3,621	$333	$14,608,198	4
-	(5)	Justice League	Warner Bros.	$521,345	-62%	2,702	$193	$220,116,917	32
-	(8)	The Disaster Artist	A24	$461,756	-46%	1,010	$457	$13,474,124	18
-	(6)	Daddy’s Home 2	Paramount Pictures	$454,704	-60%	2,493	$182	$97,047,510	39
-	(9)	Murder on the Orient Express	20th Century Fox	$401,275	-48%	1,923	$209	$97,711,524	39
-	(11)	The Star	Sony Pictures	$341,194	-43%	1,936	$176	$35,672,110	32
-	(10)	Lady Bird	A24	$328,421	-50%	947	$347	$26,297,049	46
-	(12)	The Shape of Water	Fox Searchlight	$247,246	-55%	158	$1,565	$3,840,621	18
-	(13)	Three Billboards Outside Eb…	Fox Searchlight	$222,522	-53%	944	$236	$21,558,587	39
-	(14)	A Bad Moms Christmas	STX Entertainment	$188,655	-34%	1,038	$182	$70,941,774	48
-	(15)	Darkest Hour	Focus Features	$116,303	-57%	84	$1,385	$2,454,676	27

 

edit:

Ferdi, JL, DH2, SW8 have the biggest drops (in that order). SW8 understandable due to the size. Ferdi is an animation and DH2 has a family audience too. JL could be skewing younger by now or just a bad drop.

Edited December 19, 2017 by a2knet

[LonePirate]

22 minutes ago, YSLDC said:

Daddy's Home increased 16% from last Monday, with $454,704.
 

 

It’s the only live action, holiday, comedy in wide release that is rated for almost all audiences. It will perform well all week. Comedy competition arrives on Friday and its Christmas bump will decrease eventually, although that might not happen until January 3. The film should hit at least $110M and a 3.7x. It has had a remarkably lucky run for a mildly but not exceptionally funny film.

[hw64]

6 minutes ago, SoSaysI said:

But here is the issue, unless you have admissions data how do you account for 3d share and impact on ticket prices?  Avatar had a 3d share we likely won't ever see again so its average ticket price was higher than your average 2009 movie.

I'm using actual admission data - a lot of overseas markets track admissions. Again, using the example of the UK, Avatar's ticket prices were 4.6% above the yearly average for 2009, but ticket prices as a whole have increased so much that the average ticket price in 2017 is over 20% greater than Avatar's average anyway. The same is true (but not to such a great extent) of a lot of other overseas markets.

 

Average ticket price in 2009: £5.44

Average ticket price for Avatar: £5.69

Average ticket price in 2015: £7.21

Average ticket price for TFA: £7.25

[IronJimbo]

9 minutes ago, SoSaysI said:

But here is the issue, unless you have admissions data how do you account for 3d share and impact on ticket prices?  Avatar had a 3d share we likely won't ever see again so its average ticket price was higher than your average 2009 movie.

Whose to say the sequel to the film that created the 3D trend in the first place couldn't bring it back. Avatar's 3D buzz was exploited by other films with half arsed post-production 3D. I think it's likely the GA will remember how good the 3D was for Avatar.

 

Anyway not to put a downer on this TLJ run, but it's not been or will be anywhere near as exciting as Avatar 2 will be. Which is too be expected for a sequel just 2 years after TFA (which was an exciting run)

The thing is with this run is that everyone predicted the same thing, ~600-800m DOM, 1.3b to 1.9b ww.

 

There really wasn't any variance in the predictions and for good reason, the run is playing out exactly how everyone predicted.

 

Sure maybe it will make a 100m there and here where some didn't expect but on the other hand we have AVATAR 2.

 

Predictions on here will anywhere between 500m to 4b world wide. How will it's legs look? What will it get in the opening weekend?

 

It's the sequel to the highest grossing film of all time, by the director of the two of the highest grossing films of all time.

 

 

[a2k]

39 minutes ago, YSLDC said:

Daddy's Home increased 16% from last Monday, with $454,704.
 

Yeah considering it had a 3.5 weekend and is now on 97m, it should make it to 110 despite Jumanji. Even the lowest day till New Years weekend from now on won't go below 0.5m I think, while coming Fri, coming Sat, next Mon, next Tue, next Fri, next Sat, next Sun should all be 1m+ or close..

Edited December 19, 2017 by a2knet

[SoSaysI]

13 minutes ago, hw64 said:

I'm using actual admission data - a lot of overseas markets track admissions. Again, using the example of the UK, Avatar's ticket prices were 4.6% above the yearly average for 2009, but ticket prices as a whole have increased so much that the average ticket price in 2017 is over 20% greater than Avatar's average anyway. The same is true (but not to such a great extent) of a lot of other overseas markets.

 

Average ticket price in 2009: £5.44

Average ticket price for Avatar: £5.69

Average ticket price in 2015: £7.21

Average ticket price for TFA: £7.25

Got it.  That is what I was wondering about.

[Barnack]

26 minutes ago, Brainbug said:

 

Well, cant argue against that. But didnt the chinese market grow a bit slower than anticipated? Is it still expected to overtake DOM as biggest market in the world by the end of this decade?

 

Im interested as to when we will have the first Chinese movie in the Top 10 Worldwide (all-time).

In 2015/2016 yes quite a bit slower I think, we will not see those 35+% annual grow I think.

 

Rules of thumb to know how many year it will take to double something that has composite "interest", 70/annual growth percentage, if you growth 35% a year, you will double every 2 year's or so, 10% every 7 year's or so, 7% will be about 10 year's to double.

 

I did choose a bit over 7 year's to double the China market, thinking a bit below 10% a year (the 2017 growth is said to be around 20% but I think that include adding one time deal service fee and a bit optimistic) was very slow last year (around just 3% I think), was often in the 25-35% before that.

 

 

[FantasticBeasts]

34 minutes ago, Brainbug said:

 

In order to increase from the first one, Avatar 2 would need to indeed have that 1B from China (which is not impossible, but unlikely i think) and have relatively decent to small decreases from the rest of the world markets, which i dont see.

 

For example:

 

France grossed 175M and Germany 162M. Both figures are impossible for Avatar 2. Same goes with Russia (117M) or Japan (171M). These are one-in-a-lifetime grosses, propelled by the fantastic exchange rates from late 2009/early 2010 and the 3D craze which has watered down everywhere in the world.

 

Ofc, maybe im wrong. But no matter how it ends up doing, im very much looking forward to Avatar 2s run. It will be exciting for sure.

As it was previously said, exchange rates may be worse but ticket prices are going up, making up for it.

I know it won't be easy but I guess the buzz will be very strong given the long wait and how big the first one was. I can see China going completely nuts and a lot of other developing markets increasing for it.

Actually the $200m in China in 2009 may very well be worth north of 1.5b by the time Avatar 2 is released based on market growth alone. You get how fucking insane that is??

The other markets you listed will probably drop steep but still remain spectacular.

[CJohn]

Half of TFA's Monday. It is a bomb, fam.

[EmpireCity]

14 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

Whose to say the sequel to the film that created the 3D trend in the first place couldn't bring it back. Avatar's 3D buzz was exploited by other films with half arsed post-production 3D. I think it's likely the GA will remember how good the 3D was for Avatar.

 

Anyway not to put a downer on this TLJ run, but it's not been or will be anywhere near as exciting as Avatar 2 will be. Which is too be expected for a sequel just 2 years after TFA (which was an exciting run)

The thing is with this run is that everyone predicted the same thing, ~600-800m DOM, 1.3b to 1.9b ww.

 

There really wasn't any variance in the predictions and for good reason, the run is playing out exactly how everyone predicted.

 

Sure maybe it will make a 100m there and here where some didn't expect but on the other hand we have AVATAR 2.

 

Predictions on here will anywhere between 500m to 4b world wide. How will it's legs look? What will it get in the opening weekend?

 

It's the sequel to the highest grossing film of all time, by the director of the two of the highest grossing films of all time.

 

 

 

Cameron better have come up with something new on the tech side because theaters aren't jumping back in bed to retro-fit their screens and lenses and upcharge on already expensive tickets.  China and overseas may go for it, but the domestic market isn't going to do it again.