TwoMisfits Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 27 minutes ago, redfirebird2008 said: Yes, I have said from Day 1 we should watch the legs at the box office. I think the legs will be pretty solid but not over the top awesome like TFA...which makes the Cinemascore stuff that people keep referring to pretty flawed in its own right. Nobody seemed to care about "A" Cinemascores when TDKR and Ultron both received that grade and came up way short of their predecessors in box office legs and total. Well, looking at it as 400 people total surveyed on an opening night in just 5 locations (at least that's what I got out of the Deadline piece - correct me if I screwed that up)...it's not exactly a huge sample size for a survey...and who knows if you say "I don't wanna answer" or if you just duck out of the screening, how you get counted...I mean, most surveys have a "margin of error" for those type of events, but letter grade ones don't really seem to work for that... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brainbug Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 Just now, Porthos said: Let's pull back a second. Most of us knew that this would have a largeish sized Mon drop because of the calendar placement, right (and the sheer size of the opening)? It was a little worse than R1's with more people at work/school. Soooo. What's the talking point here again? Hell, this doesn't increase all that much today (if at all), what's the talking point there as well? Coz, tbh, I won't be surprised if it stays flat or has a minimal increase*. * getting this in now, for street cred and to avert charges of me shifting my talking points. Im sure you have followed the box office much longer than i have, but reading on this forum for 3 years now theres a weekday pattern i see that occurs nearly every time: Monday drop - Ehh, legs wont be that good Tuesday rise - Holy shit, WOM must be crazy good. Wednesday fall - Lol, what a failure. Bury it. Thursday - Whatever. When does RTH give us estimates?? Ofc, in holiday weeks, that pattern can change. But since this week has most schools still open, it might be quite accurate. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Barnack Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 1 minute ago, redfirebird2008 said: Yep... "Now the question is, how high can these superheros fly? Avengers turned around a 3x multiple of its bow for a final stateside cume of $623.4M — and that’s off an A+ CinemaScore which typically carries an average 4.8x multiple. Ultron earned an A, which typically translates into a 3.6x multiple, which would put the sequel well north of $650M using that B.O. yardstick." Sadly if he would have made some 3.6/4.8 * 623.4m type of gross logic of the impact of an A reception instead of A+ for that type of movie according to cinemascore average, he would have predicted 467.55, putting smaller opening weekend into it 467.55 * .9227 = 431.4 That 459m actual result being between those 2. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blaze Heatnix Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 24 minutes ago, Johnny Tran said: If you look on IMDB that's not the case. There's over three times as many 10's as there are 1's. Actually, there are 4 times as many 10's as there are 1's. 32.000 users gave it a 10 and 8.000 gave it a 1. That's hilarious. If there are bots, there's a chance they're from the upside and not the other side. Sure, there are legit people giving it a 10, but so there are legit people giving it a 1. I've read some huge and long essays describing why the movie sucks. It's crazy. Bots don't do that. 10 and 1 are the definition of love/hate thing. Then we had to add fanboys/fanatics and trolls/haters into the equation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AndyLL Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 22 minutes ago, Johnny Tran said: If you look on IMDB that's not the case. There's over three times as many 10's as there are 1's. Of course there is. People go to the movies they are interested in and expect to like. In theory you going in hoping for a 10 and depending on how the movie is you downgrade from there. You don't go in expected to rate it a 1 and then if it's good give it a 10. That is why there is going to be a bias towards higher ratings. You would expect plenty of 10s and rarely any 1s. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Larry McGillicuddy Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 15 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said: Well, looking at it as 400 people total surveyed on an opening night in just 5 locations (at least that's what I got out of the Deadline piece - correct me if I screwed that up)...it's not exactly a huge sample size for a survey...and who knows if you say "I don't wanna answer" or if you just duck out of the screening, how you get counted...I mean, most surveys have a "margin of error" for those type of events, but letter grade ones don't really seem to work for that... A small random sample is better than a large biased sample. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Porthos Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 (edited) BOT Review That Movie: A: 53 B: 7 C: 8 D: 3 F: 3 At A=5, B=4, etc, score comes in at 4.466 Lots of pro-SW bots floating around here. Edited December 20, 2017 by Porthos 2 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blaze Heatnix Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 Jigsaw's Audience Score on RT is another interesting case. 92%. I don't remember seeing any article about that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Porthos Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 3 minutes ago, Porthos said: BOT Review That Movie: A: 53 B: 7 C: 8 D: 3 F: 3 At A=5, B=4, etc, score comes in at 4.466 Lots of pro-SW bots floating around here. Now, of course, this is a self-selecting sample of a message board that has been around long enough to have at least a decent amount of like-minded folks when it comes to a message board culture. Though certainly not any sort of hivemind. And it's only slightly less useless than the scores over at RT, IMDB and everywhere else. Possible equally useless. I only say slightly less useless since it would seem that BOT, ironically enough, is deficient in the bot demographic. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwoMisfits Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 27 minutes ago, Larry McGillicuddy said: A small random sample is better than a large biased sample. Yes, but a large random sample is way better than a small one... And this sample isn't completely random - it's just more random than the RT.com which is all self-selected:)... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteveJaros Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 3 hours ago, TwoMisfits said: You know you make fun of Jumanji... Not really. I liked Jumanji when it came out 22 Christmases ago, and I bet that there are parents now who were kids then who will take their kids to see it. Could have a good box office run, if it's as good as the original. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
That One Girl Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 the box office juggernaut Father Figures 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
That One Girl Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 1 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Johnny Tran Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 I see what you guys are saying but we live in an all or nothing world here on the internet.... there's a lot of people who think "greatest thing ever!" or "worst piece of shit I've seen!" with little room for in between. So you might think that the 10s are legit maybe those people really thought this was the greatest thing ever but the 1s might also be legitimate. If someone hated it, they might give it a 1 because "they ruined my childhood! fuck you Rian Johnson!" FWIW, if I had to grade TLJ I'd probably give it a 7/10. I liked it quite a bit. I don't give many movies 10s. Maybe Goodfellas. Or Terminator 2. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JB33 Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 15 minutes ago, That One Guy said: @SteveJaros Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Johnny Tran Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 15 minutes ago, That One Guy said: So if Justice League performed well WB would be in the lead right now... I think WB is wiping their tears with hundred dollar bills tbh. Probably just glad that Justice League is over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Barnack Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 (edited) 1 hour ago, TwoMisfits said: Well, looking at it as 400 people total surveyed on an opening night in just 5 locations (at least that's what I got out of the Deadline piece - correct me if I screwed that up)...it's not exactly a huge sample size for a survey...and who knows if you say "I don't wanna answer" or if you just duck out of the screening, how you get counted...I mean, most surveys have a "margin of error" for those type of events, but letter grade ones don't really seem to work for that... 400 would be a really big sample size for something like this if it was random (being from non random locations). For a big movie making 10m in preview gross that mean around 1m people. https://www.surveysystem.com/sscalc.htm For a population of 1 million To be right 19 out 20 inside a 5% zone you need only 384 people to be pooled. About the same for a population of 100m, passed a population of say 100k, sample size needed does not move really much. People tend to overrate the size of sample size needed (country wide election pool are often made on 1100 people) and give too much value to larger but still really small (less than 1% of the population) non random sample size. In those cinemascore case obviously, not only non random location (for when it could matter, if taste are different by states/rural vs urban/etc...) but opening night is also a big bias specially for franchise. Edited December 20, 2017 by Barnack 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redfirebird2008 Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 1 hour ago, Porthos said: Let's pull back a second. Most of us knew that this would have a largeish sized Mon drop because of the calendar placement, right (and the sheer size of the opening)? It was a little worse than R1's with more people at work/school. Soooo. What's the talking point here again? Hell, this doesn't increase all that much today (if at all), what's the talking point there as well? Coz, tbh, I won't be surprised if it stays flat or has a minimal increase*. * getting this in now, for street cred and to avert charges of me shifting my talking points. I think it increases 10% or more today. But flat would still be very good too. Everything it makes right now is icing on the cake, especially with some nice holiday boost next week. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwoMisfits Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 14 minutes ago, Barnack said: 400 would be a really big sample size for something like this if it was random (being from non random locations). For a big movie making 10m in preview gross that mean around 1m people. https://www.surveysystem.com/sscalc.htm In those cinemascore case obviously, not only non random location (for when it could matter, if taste are different by states/rural vs urban/etc...) but opening night is also a big bias specially for franchise. I was gonna make those points, but I figure not everyone has stats experience:)...I've got more, too...but those are 2 of the biggies:)... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Porthos Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 (edited) 26 minutes ago, Johnny Tran said: I see what you guys are saying but we live in an all or nothing world here on the internet.... there's a lot of people who think "greatest thing ever!" or "worst piece of shit I've seen!" with little room for in between. So you might think that the 10s are legit maybe those people really thought this was the greatest thing ever but the 1s might also be legitimate. If someone hated it, they might give it a 1 because "they ruined my childhood! fuck you Rian Johnson!" FWIW, if I had to grade TLJ I'd probably give it a 7/10. I liked it quite a bit. I don't give many movies 10s. Maybe Goodfellas. Or Terminator 2. I hear what you're saying, and I actually agree with the best/worst crap. But, it's funny. If I had to describe TLJ in one sentence it might be: This might be my Empire Strikes Back. See, as a kid I hated ESB with the passion only a Snot Nosed Nine Year Old Kid could have. As I've grown older, I've come to respect and appreciate it more, but simply can not love it (thought there are many parts of it I adore). But TLJ? Well it's not my favorite SW film. But the emotions that ESB instilled back in the day in many folks TLJ is in turn instilling those same emotions in me. So I can see why it's got such a polarizing reaction, both pro and con. Edited December 20, 2017 by Porthos 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
