4-day Weekend Thread: 5-day numbers per BOM - TLJ 99.0M, J:WTTJ 55.4M, PP3 26.4M, TGS 14.4M, F 10.1M, C 8.2M, D 7.7M and an incredible $5,480,000 for Father Figures

[Valonqar]

25 minutes ago, estebanJ said:

Two things seem clear:

 

1) Star Wars fatigue has finally set in - one movie a year for three straight years? It's amazing the box office has been as awesome as it has been up until right now. Disney should postpone Solo.

 

2) The lousy word of mouth rating on RT wasn't just organized hating and trolling. Whether there was some of that or not, a lot of it was real.

 

Disney needs to go back to one Star Wars film every 3 years, 2 at the most. FATIGUE. 

 

Oh, FFS! TLJ was going to drop cause TFA maxed out. Nothing unexpected. Even if they didn't release RO last year it was going to drop. Calendar was going to affect the boxoffice too so why is everyone acting surprised as @Arlborn rightfully points out? 

 

 

[JonathanLB]

TLJ will finish 3rd all time domestic. Let’s cut it out with the Star Wars fatigue BS. What a load of shit.

[BoxOfficeZ]

Guys its over. Star Wars is dead. Only the second largest OW ever. People are clearly fatigued.

 

Time to pack it up, find a new franchise to shill for. 

[Napoleon]

8 hours ago, That One Guy said:

 

batman v superman had a better 2nd weekend drop.  therefore, last jedi has worse wom than batman v superman.

That means Episode 9 will have an opening weekend 45% lower even if Disney fix what audiences supposedly hated about The Last Jedi and even though the marketing promises audiences the Star Wars movie they supposedly aways wanted? 

[Darth Lehnsherr]

32 minutes ago, estebanJ said:

 

CoCo is a USA disappointment. That's been glossed over by some spectacular numbers in China and Mexico, and in the media because of fawning over its Mexican themes, but in the USA it's been a box office disappointment since it opened, yet nobody wants to recognize that.

Not sure about that. Pretty sure most people on this forum were thinking sub $200M Domestic or at best $220M. 

[Taruseth]

9 hours ago, JonathanLB said:

I don’t agree that this is the most favorable at all. I know that’s common wisdom, and it’s wrong. You waste the 26th - an incredible day - on a weekend Saturday that was already going to be great. I far prefer 2019 with Episode IX. Xmas on Wednesday allows for a monster Wed / Thurs and cancels out the losses (or most of them) from both discount Tuesdays for Xmas Eve and NYE. That’s a great calendar! Especially because discount Tuesdays don’t help capacity blockbusters at all; they hurt. 

I actually asked myself if that isn't the better calendar configuration.

I am at least sure that the 2016 was horrible Christmas Eve and NYE on Saturday isn't that good.

9 hours ago, Carlangonz said:

I'm really not looking forward its domestic performance, i'm more intrigued for its China performance.

 

3D without glasses? That's gonna easily break the FOTF records there.

I honestly have no Idea how it will perform domestic or in Europe, because Avatar was gigantic, but if someone can pull that off again than James Cameron.

But that China run can be anywhere, If it performs like the original in comparison to the market, that would be incredible.

9 hours ago, EpicBoom23 said:

Thanks!
It's going to be epic if LJ is missing 100m for the long weekend

I hope it edges past that, but I start to doubt it. Just hoping the week will be a bit nicer.

 

8 hours ago, JonathanLB said:

I agree. I’m not sure if it affects things in the big picture. I guess I’m just superstitious and don’t like the last two calendars because it leads to misguided headlines about enormous drops. It’s one reason I scratched my head about Solo’s release date. Disney didn’t pay attention to Fox?! You don’t release Star Wars ON Memorial Day weekend dumbies, you release it the weekend before! That way it’s a 3-day weekend to a 4-day holiday weekend and virtually guarantees two monsters in a row. 

 

Xmas on Friday definitely helps the second weekend decline immeasurably. I just thought seeing what Rogue One made on the 26th was the most impressive day of its entire run. I wasn’t blown away by any of its daily numbers except that one. Don’t get me wrong it was an incredible, amazing performance for a spin off or for any movie frankly. But it did so more consistently (as I expect TLJ will accomplish - a kind of muted, kind of boring, somewhat disappointing run to $700M that I think it will attain). That one day was the “wow” factor for me. I got spoiled by TFA because I felt like just about every day was a wow. Ironically the $57M previews were less impressive (!) than the $40M Monday. Award for least impressive day for TFA was its first Saturday. Rth was basically posting updates all day and the initial estimates looked downright disappointing until finally it ended the day doing fantastic but the failure to beat JW was the only time during the whole run I was actually disappointed. Then it made up with a ridiculously overperforming Sunday. I probably won’t ever get over $40M Monday in 2015 dollars. May not see anything like that for a long time, in pure ticket sales. But the fact it nearly maintained that same gross the next few days was dumbfounding.

Oh yes, Most blockbuster don't reach a single day above 40Mio$ apart from their opening Day.

 

I don't know if changes anything and I would say it is really hard to say if it does or if it doesn't.

 

But as wee see with Rogue on it had a 'bad' weekend Weekend and really good Weekdays resulting in a good second overall week drop (Actually because of the weaker first set of Weekdays an overall better drop). I just hope the overall drop for the Week for TLJ is similar to TFA (-33.2 %) and Rogue One (-30.9%) would leave TLJ with a second week of 198 up too 205 Mio$ so based it would need to cross something like 130Mio+ on the second set of Weekdays and that seems to much.

 

I think Disney is releasing SW on Memorial Day Weekend because they want to keep some place for Infinity War.

8 hours ago, redfirebird2008 said:

 

Any of these release dates are really good. The holiday boost is amazing to watch. 

Yep, as far as I know about box office (so nothing) it seems like that.

 

8 hours ago, The Greatest Rth said:

TLJ 29, J 14.5, PP3 6.8,TGS 3.6, F 3.1

Hope that TLJ number holds. So Friday and Saturday combine to roughly 53,5 with a 14 Mil Sunday the weekend would be 67,5.

 

8 hours ago, a2knet said:

TLJ +17.5%

J +16%

PP3 -40%

TGS +15.2%

F +12.3%

Thanks, that PP3 number looks awful.

 

Wait is has Thursday preview as part of it's opening day, but it still dropped from it's true friday.

5 hours ago, Ryan Reynolds said:

Rian Johnson= Zac Snyder

Han Solo= Wonder Woman

Episode IX=Justce League?

I really hope that won't happen at least the part with Episode IX, and if Han Solo behaves like Wonder Woman compared to the other movies, it would gross something similar to TFA, that would be crazy.

 

2 hours ago, Hades said:

I wonder what the top 5 films will  be at the box office this time next year. Talk about crowded . 

Probably something like (I have no idea about that Fox /Lighstorm film)

Aquaman (Opening Weekend)

Bumblebee

Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse

Mortal Engines

Probably something not yet dated or a hold over, so Wreck-it-Rakph 2

 

31 minutes ago, estebanJ said:

Two things seem clear:

 

1) Star Wars fatigue has finally set in - one movie a year for three straight years? It's amazing the box office has been as awesome as it has been up until right now. Disney should postpone Solo.

 

2) The lousy word of mouth rating on RT wasn't just organized hating and trolling. Whether there was some of that or not, a lot of it was real.

 

Disney needs to go back to one Star Wars film every 3 years, 2 at the most. FATIGUE. 

 

I agree with that. So SW, Avatar, SW, Avatar, SW, Avatar, that would still give them a big film in December.

Actually if the sale of FOX goes trough, Disney would be the studio with the main Blockbuster in

2015 SW VII: The Force Awakens (936 Mio$)

2016 Rogue One: A SW Story (532 Mio $)

2017 SW VIII: The Last Jedi (675+ Mio$)

(2018 I actually think Mary Poppins (350 Mio$) might be bigger than Aquaman)

2019 SW IX (700 Mio $)

2020 Avatar 2 (It's Cameron, I actually think if he really has a story to tell and the right technical idea, this movie could cross somthing like 900+ Mio$, that Avatar adjusts to 900+ Mio$ might help too)

2021 Avatar 3 (I think this will drop 700 Mio$)

2022 I think they will come with a film for this year

2023 same for this year

2024 Avatar 4 (This will drop 500 Mio $)

2025 Avatar 5 (600 Mio $)

 

I just Guessed some numbers for Avatar2-5.

 

 

 

 

 

[IronJimbo]

Where were you when Star Wars died? I was sleeping peacefully

[Gustavo]

Han Solo will be the Suicide Squad of this franchise? If the movie is this divisive, it might damage Star Wars canon irreparably

Edited December 24, 2017 by Gustavo

[IronJimbo]

6 hours ago, grey ghost said:

The main reason Marvel can get away with 3 movies a year is variety.

 

So far most cinematic universes can't gain much interest let alone keep interest.

The illusion of variety maybe.

[MovieMan89]

5 hours ago, Spidey Freak said:

Lol Coco's doing fine, especially considering its OS numbers. But this does show that Moana's performance was underrated af, especially as it had to contend with a post-SLoP Illumination musical in Sing.

I will stand by Moana having had phenomenal near Frozen level WOM. Its Xmas-New Year's performance was incredible considering it had a Star Wars and a huge brand new animated competitor to contend with. Take Sing out and it probably would have flirted with 300. And speaking of Frozen, no animated movie is likely to ever get that lucky again. Literally all of November, all of December, and all of January with nothing eating into its demo. Not to mention prior to its release, the demo had been starved for months of anything notable or appealing. 

Edited December 24, 2017 by MovieMan89

[Brainbug]

29 would be decent. Heres hoping it doesnt drop from estimates like yesterday.

 

And for the record, all these people saying "Woah 70% second weekend drop! BvS-level-legs! Star Wars fatigue!" are absolutely ridiculous and not to be taken seriously. On top of having Christmas Eve on Sunday, letting all grosses collapse, the Friday-to Friday drop was always going to be enormous because fucking 45M dollars in previews. And it having a 17% Sat bump would actually be better than TFA 2nd Saturday bump (15%). But one can not really compare these days to one another, because: different calendar configuration.

 

Im curious where all these doomsayers will be when we start seeing gigantic weekday grosses in a few days.

[Elessar]

2 hours ago, MCKillswitch123 said:

Oh. Yes, that. Thanks for pointing that out and making me feel even worse about the undeserved underperformance of TLJ

Undeserved? "Only" 3rd highest grosser? Star Wars fans are a greedy bunch...

[MovieMan89]

5 minutes ago, Brainbug said:

29 would be decent. Heres hoping it doesnt drop from estimates like yesterday.

 

And for the record, all these people saying "Woah 70% second weekend drop! BvS-level-legs! Star Wars fatigue!" are absolutely ridiculous and not to be taken seriously. On top of having Christmas Eve on Sunday, letting all grosses collapse, the Friday-to Friday drop was always going to be enormous because fucking 45M dollars in previews. And it having a 17% Sat bump would actually be better than TFA 2nd Saturday bump (15%). But one can not really compare these days to one another, because: different calendar configuration.

 

Im curious where all these doomsayers will be when we start seeing gigantic weekday grosses in a few days.

If people are saying SW fatigue is currently a thing, they don't know what they're talking about. Saying TLJ shows signs that it could be a thing in the not too distant future on the other hand is a different story. 

[MCKillswitch123]

1 minute ago, Elessar said:

Undeserved? "Only" 3rd highest grosser? Star Wars fans are a greedy bunch...

It deserves more than that, dammit! It should be higher than Avatar in a world where justice prevails

[Blaze Heatnix]

14 minutes ago, Gustavo said:

Han Solo will be the Suicide Squad of this franchise? If the movie is this divisive, it might damage Star Wars canon irreparably

 

I think it depends. Suicide Squad was some kind of Frankenstein movie, with filmed scenes and reshoots all mashed together.

 

It seems this Solo movie was basically scrapped and the new director did his own thing, instead of using scenes already filmed. I'm curious about the budget.

[IronJimbo]

5 minutes ago, Elessar said:

Undeserved? "Only" 3rd highest grosser? Star Wars fans are a greedy bunch...

On quality alone of blockbusters anything past 1990 and is starwars shouldnt be in the top 100.

[IronJimbo]

6 minutes ago, MCKillswitch123 said:

It deserves more than that, dammit! It should be higher than Avatar in a world where justice prevails

Is this ironic? The Star Wars films except OT are not special. No talented direction, no captivating story, no amazing cinematography.. nothing. In a world where justice prevails the top 100 highest grossing films would look very different.

[MovieMan89]

3 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

On quality alone of blockbusters anything past 1990 and is starwars shouldnt be in the top 100.

TFA is easily one of the best blockbusters of the decade. Otherwise, I may actually be inclined to agree with you. 

Edited December 24, 2017 by MovieMan89

[IronJimbo]

Just now, MovieMan89 said:

TFA is easily one of the best blockbusters of the decade. 

How many films do you want me to name and what definition for a blockbuster do you have.

[MCKillswitch123]

2 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

Is this ironic? The Star Wars films except OT are not special. No talented direction, no captivating story, no amazing cinematography.. nothing. In a world where justice prevails the top 100 highest grossing films would look very different.

No, it's not ironic, and yes, I like TLJ more than Avatar, so I wanted it to do more than Avatar.