4-day Weekend Thread: 5-day numbers per BOM - TLJ 99.0M, J:WTTJ 55.4M, PP3 26.4M, TGS 14.4M, F 10.1M, C 8.2M, D 7.7M and an incredible $5,480,000 for Father Figures

[JonathanLB]

2 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

It dropped 70% in its second weekend. C'mon, that's not all the calendar. 

To assume even mixed word of mouth from the box office alone is a fool's errand. Civil War had amazing reviews and fans loved it, almost everyone loved it, and it had pretty shitty legs. What's so hard to understand about some people always not liking any movie, no matter what it is?

 

Even the most unflattering math I can do on The Last Jedi has it falling at $670M and I have to really fudge to get it there. So it's destined to be the 3rd highest grossing movie of all time. I really don't think Disney cares that much how they get their money as long as it's from the U.S. where they get the biggest cut and as long as the movie makes a huge profit. My initial projection for Last Jedi in the summer was $185M OW / $685M domestic, and I raised my OW and basically got it right, but maybe I should have kept the domestic total similar. It was obvious fans wanted to rush out to see a sequel to a movie with a cliffhanger. There was no "wait and see" approach because we also all heard that you can't wait on this one, there are spoilers that will ruin the movie, etc. 

 

There are tons of reasons why movies are more front-loaded and it doesn't always mean it's crappy word of mouth. In all reality, BVS still didn't make twice as much as its opening weekend, and Last Jedi will pass that mark mid-week and be at full steam ahead. 

 

Do you think Rogue One had a 3.43 multiplier because it was so universally well received that it was just unstoppable? Or is it a LOT more likely that because it was a spinoff, there was a much lower rush to see factor (proven by the $155M OW), and that pushed business out of opening weekend and spread it more over the holidays? Last Jedi will still finish with a 3.25x multiplier I think, so it won't be a huge difference. The main difference is a saga film is more must-see than a spinoff, thus increasing the proportion of business upfront versus later. Reading "word of mouth" into everything isn't always the best or simplest explanation. 

[John Marston]

most people did not expect LJ to make less than 700m if it does.  It would be revisionist to claim otherwise

[Mojoguy]

Which really sucks since animation is the only high grossing kind of film that can still pull off leggy runs with consistency today. Would hate to see them start performing like live action ones in terms of legs.

Frozen isn't going to be beaten any time soon by another animated movie in terms of legs for a very long time.

Also Wonder Woman's incredible legs will not be beaten any time soon by another superhero movie. MCU's movies get more and more frontloaded with every movie.

[JonathanLB]

And it won't make less than that, either, so I wouldn't worry about it. It hasn't even had Christmas or the 26th yet, which TFA had by this point in its run. TFA had much stronger weekdays from holidays in the first week, and it still made well more than 2x its first week total. A similar 2.4x Last Jedi's first week total is $710M. There's no reason to believe it would be worse than that when it hasn't even had the benefit of holiday weekdays yet at all. 

[MovieMan89]

1 minute ago, John Marston said:

most people did not expect LJ to make less than 700m if it does.  It would be revisionist to claim otherwise

Most were saying 700+ even if it opened to 200. And it opened 20m higher than that. It's just frustrating to me that people are going so out of their way to make it sound like it's just some tiny little internet niche that has issues with the movie. The WOM is nowhere near universal praise among the GA, way too much is proving that. 

[Webslinger]

I'm not going to claim that Last Jedi's drop is good, but the calendar definitely did have an effect. Christmas Eve wrecked it today, and it didn't get the benefit of Christmas Day business to bump the three-day gross back up a bit.

 

And again, this bears repeating: it still has Christmas, holiday weekdays, and New Year's ahead of it. It's not going to come anywhere near Force Awakens on those same days, but it can still rack up gobs of money.

[junkshop36]

45 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

It may be more backloaded for now, but once the Holidays end, I fully expect it to hold up worse than R1. So 680 still sounds like a good bet to me. 

 

3.1x gets it to 680

 

3.18x gets it to 700

 

Gonna be close. I think it just makes it with a 3.2x

Edited December 24, 2017 by junkshop36

[MovieMan89]

2 minutes ago, Mojoguy said:

Frozen isn't going to be beaten any time soon by another animated movie in terms of legs for a very long time.

Also Wonder Woman's incredible legs will not be beaten any time soon by another superhero movie. MCU's movies get more and more frontloaded with every movie.

Frozen also got the entire Holiday season+January to itself for competition. Good luck to any animated/family film ever hitting that jackpot again. 

[Brainbug]

1 minute ago, Webslinger said:

I'm not going to claim that Last Jedi's drop is good, but the calendar definitely did have an effect. Christmas Eve wrecked it today, and it didn't get the benefit of Christmas Day business to bump the three-day gross back up a bit.

 

And again, this bears repeating: it still has Christmas, holiday weekdays, and New Year's ahead of it. It's not going to come anywhere near Force Awakens on those same days, but it can still rack up gobs of money.

 

It will give TFA's second set of weekdays a good run for their money. I believe TLJ has a good shot of outgrossing them.

[Mojoguy]

3.1x gets it to 680

3x gets it to a 660

[MovieMan89]

2 minutes ago, Webslinger said:

I'm not going to claim that Last Jedi's drop is good, but the calendar definitely did have an effect. Christmas Eve wrecked it today, and it didn't get the benefit of Christmas Day business to bump the three-day gross back up a bit.

 

And again, this bears repeating: it still has Christmas, holiday weekdays, and New Year's ahead of it. It's not going to come anywhere near Force Awakens on those same days, but it can still rack up gobs of money.

It probably would have posted mid 80's for the weekend if the calendar had been one day earlier (21-23). So of course it affected it, but a 60%+ drop is still not a a good hold by any means

[Porthos]

15 minutes ago, John Marston said:

most people did not expect LJ to make less than 700m if it does.  It would be revisionist to claim otherwise

*raises hand*

 

I had it as a possibility and I have the posts to back it up.  Sure, my personal O/U was 750, but I gave consistent evidence why it could do around 680.

Edited December 24, 2017 by Porthos

[YM!]

32 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

Moviepass - kids don't have them...maybe this is the movie that started to matter for animateds...I mean, Ferdinand is going nowhere...The Star, even with its nice little leg out, went really nowhere (although it will do 2x its budget DOM)...I'd watch all the animated releases coming and see where it goes...summer ones should hold up the "best", but it should be interesting to watch for them...

 

I mean, Moviepass is moving to 2 million adult users and counting...how much is this now as a % of routine moviegoers?

Both Ferdinand and The Star has no appeal towards though over 10. Moviepass had nothing to do with that or Coco. 

 

The only animated films that’ll be hurt is the ones with no appeal outside of kids. Moviepass has nothing to do with it. If kids and the parents want to see it, they’ll see it.

[Deep Wang]

5 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

It probably would have posted mid 80's for the weekend if the calendar had been one day earlier (21-23). So of course it affected it, but a 60%+ drop is still not a a good hold by any means

How many movies have had $30m+ in previews and NOT dropped at least 60% second weekend?  The only two I can think of are TFA and Rogue One, both of which had Christmas Day in the second weekend. 

 

That what happens when you have such big preview numbers. Plain and simple. 

[TalismanRing]

Worldwide Box Office(Estimates) Weekend Ending December 24

#	Title	Weekend Box Office Estimate			Weekend Cume Release			Distributor
		Worldwide Wknd	Intl Wknd	Dom Wknd	Worldwide Cume	Intl Cume	Dom Cume	Intl	Terrs	Dom
1	Star Wars: The Last Jedi	$143,586,000	$75,100,000	$68,486,000	$745,388,356	$380,300,000	$365,088,356	DIS	55	DIS
2	Jumanji: Welcome To The Jungle	$83,500,000	$49,500,000	$34,000,000	$100,105,967	$49,500,000	$50,605,967	SNY	54	SNY
3	Youth	$34,530,000	$34,530,000	-	$116,168,780	$115,455,000	$713,780	MUL	4	CHALION
4	Legend Of The Demon Cat	$33,530,000	$33,530,000	-	$33,545,000	$33,545,000	-	MUL	2	-
5	Pitch Perfect 3	$30,250,000	$9,800,000	$20,450,000	$30,250,000	$9,800,000	$20,450,000	UNI	15	UNI
6	Ferdinand	$28,550,000	$21,500,000	$7,050,000	$57,132,884	$30,600,000	$26,532,884	FOX	63	FOX
7	Bleeding Steel	$27,275,000	$27,275,000	-	$27,615,000	$27,615,000	-	MUL	5	-
8	Along With The Gods: The Two Worlds	$21,000,000	$21,000,000	-	$21,075,000	$21,075,000	-	LOTTE	1	-
9	Liquidator, The	$19,475,000	$19,475,000	-	$20,230,000	$20,230,000	-	SHFG	1	-
10	Coco	$18,508,000	$13,300,000	$5,208,000	$486,327,128	$325,000,000	$161,327,128	DIS	37	DIS
11	Greatest Showman, The	$12,700,000	$4,100,000	$8,600,000	$17,298,731	$4,100,000	$13,198,731	FOX	4	FOX
12	Wonder	$9,300,000	$7,300,000	$2,000,000	$173,357,750	$58,400,000	$114,957,750	LGF	67	LGF
13	Murder On The Orient Express	$6,900,000	$6,400,000	$500,000	$311,521,983	$212,300,000	$99,221,983	FOX	37	FOX
14	Paddington 2	$6,500,000	$6,500,000	-	$102,775,000	$102,775,000	-	MUL	15	WB
15	Steel Rain	$6,035,000	$6,035,000	-	$18,230,000	$18,230,000	-	NEXENT	1	-
16	Downsizing	$4,600,000	-	$4,600,000	$4,600,000	-	$4,600,000	-	1	PAR
17	Darkest Hour	$4,205,000	$100,000	$4,105,000	$12,358,077	5,400,000	$6,958,077	UNI	2	FOC
18	Daddy's Home 2	$4,000,000	$3,100,000	$900,000	$167,475,556	$68,300,000	$99,175,556	PAR	56	PAR
19	Tiger Zinda Hai	$3,635,000	$3,635,000	-	$3,635,000	$3,635,000	-	MUL	11	YSHRAJ
20	Father Figures	$3,200,000	-	$3,200,000	$3,200,000	-	$3,200,000	-	1	WB
21	Papita 2nd Base	$3,125,000	$3,125,000	-	$15,765,000	$15,765,000	-	CNUN	1	-
22	Shape Of Water, The	$3,050,000	-	$3,050,000	$7,615,665	-	$7,615,665	-	1	FSL
23	Justice League	$2,755,000	$1,700,000	$1,055,000	$646,678,455	$424,000,000	$222,678,455	WB	66	WB
24	Christmas Trees 6	$2,610,000	$2,610,000	-	$2,610,000	$2,610,000	-	BZLVS	1	-
25	Dieses bescheuerte Herz	$2,165,000	$2,165,000	-	$2,185,000	$2,185,000	-	Constantin	2	-

Showing 1 to 25 of 25 entries

[LinksterAC]

20 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

Most were saying 700+ even if it opened to 200. And it opened 20m higher than that. It's just frustrating to me that people are going so out of their way to make it sound like it's just some tiny little internet niche that has issues with the movie. The WOM is nowhere near universal praise among the GA, way too much is proving that. 

Nothing proves anything about GA WOM.  RT user scores and IMDB are worlds apart.  And IMDB is a world apart from Cinemascore and comScore.  

Edited December 24, 2017 by LinksterAC

[JonathanLB]

Wanting the word of mouth to be mixed to support your personal niche opinion is understandable, but it's not factually accurate. There is no data to back that up at all actually, there's just your "reading tea leaves" of the box office. "Oh I sense that despite the fact it will hit a 3x multiple and that generally means good word of mouth, it's all because of the holidays, but I refuse to acknowledge the holidays as a reason why TFA made more money its first weekdays than TLJ." It's like you just make up your mind about something, THEN try to come up with data to prove it, which is ass backwards. You analyze the data, then draw conclusions from that. What we have are exit polls proving that audience response was equal to or better than both TFA and Rogue One. 

 

I agree from whatever anecdotal evidence I have seen on Star Wars forums, basically posted polls for instance, that the fan reaction has been mixed with it being pretty much straight up one of the best few Star Wars movies or one of the worst few, but that doesn't translate to the general audience. It reminds me exactly of Star Trek Into Darkness, which I think is an A+ movie, one of the best blockbusters I've seen, and a big reason I was excited to hear JJ was directing TFA. Everyone I know loved Into Darkness, because nobody I know is a Star Trek fan. Delving into the situation a bit more, since I knew that every Trek fan thinks that's the worst piece of shit ever made, I started to realize that their problems are mainly about the way it messes with the Trek universe and isn't faithful to source material. Those are perfectly valid complaints but they are blinded by their devotion to the franchise, unable to realize masterful filmmaking when it was given to them. They were given a film that is just about as perfect as a movie can be, one so good that I found myself a bit jealous, thinking, "Fuck I hope Disney Star Wars is as good as the last two Trek movies, and I don't give a shit about Star Trek!" I was legitimately worried that maybe Trek was going to overtake us because their reboot was the envy of Hollywood. 

 

But nope, in come the nerds to tell us what Spock would or wouldn't do or whatever other horsecrap they threw out. It's fine if the Trek fans didn't like Into Darkness. For the rest of us, it was a great movie and everything Star Trek SHOULD be. In fact maybe that's why it was such a great movie, because Star Trek is so goddamn shitty most of the time that to get a movie that's as un-Star Trek like as possible is a serious benefit to it appealing to normal people. 

[Brainbug]

I personally will eat crow if TLJ fails to top 700M DOM.

 

But: Everyone here, who is now super confident this has mixed WOM and will maybe even fail to hit a 3 multiplier, will have to eat major crow too when TLJ soars past 700M in February (which i expect).

 

Does everyone agree?

Edited December 24, 2017 by Brainbug

[rockNrollaDIM]

Soo meltdowns?? Never change BOF lol

[Blaze Heatnix]

TLJ is now running 175 million domestic behind The Force Awakens.

 

Considering that TLJ has performed worse than TFA every single day, there's no reason to think TLJ is suddenly gonna develop sexy legs and simply beat TFA every single day after Christmas.  I'm sure that's not how the force works, and if I'm wrong, I'll come and say I was wrong.