redfirebird2008 Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 Just now, Sand-omJC said: 2006 hasn't been the best basis, nothing really has. Correct, it has underperformed compared to 2006 if anything. So the 60% prediction I gave might be too generous. We will see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LinksterAC Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 (edited) 12 minutes ago, REC said: Yeah not where I'm at and afaik that's not normal. But yes I see some schools are out that week. I'm surprised any school would be off after Jan 2nd. Practically all of SoCal I've researched is off. Only about 20M people. Edited December 29, 2017 by LinksterAC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThomasNicole Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 1 hour ago, grey ghost said: SW9 isn't dropping much from TLJ. SW9 isn't drop at all, it will grow up like ROTJ / ROTS 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EmmaPeel Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 44 minutes ago, NoLegMan said: I never thought SW was subtle with its politics, seems like a retcon of history. Absolutely. Star Wars has always been stridently anti-fascist. The bad guys were literal space Nazis. Plot points in the prequels were also strongly influenced by the events leading to WWII. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RandomCat Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 Just now, redfirebird2008 said: Correct, it has underperformed compared to 2006 if anything. So the 60% prediction I gave might be too generous. We will see. I'm betting more on a 50-60, personally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redfirebird2008 Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 Just now, Sand-omJC said: I'm betting more on a 50-60, personally. Here is Thursday for the 06 movies. Closer to 70% for many of them. I think my 60% prediction is pretty generous. http://www.boxofficemojo.com/daily/chart/?view=1day&sortdate=2007-01-04&p=.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Porthos Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 Sacramento Unified (the main school district in town) has the Winter Holidays as: Dec 23 - Jan 7. But we always have a two week break here, so it just matters when it lands on the calendar. By comparison, Elk Grove Unified is Dec 21 - Jan 1, so it's absolutely variable. On the other hand one of the other 'main' school districts in Sacramento, San Juan Unified, is also Dec 23 - Jan 7. So... ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LinksterAC Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 (edited) 7 minutes ago, redfirebird2008 said: Correct, it has underperformed compared to 2006 if anything. So the 60% prediction I gave might be too generous. We will see. Purely anecdotal, but my high school was back in session on January 2 in 2006. This year they're off until the 8th. In general, in California, the winter recess has gotten longer in the past decade. I really have no idea how that's going to play out this year. It may drop 60% like you suggest, but it may hold stronger than my forecast shows. It would be great to get data on this from @EmpireCity or @The Greatest Rth if they have access to it. Edited December 29, 2017 by LinksterAC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RandomCat Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 Just now, redfirebird2008 said: Here is Thursday for the 06 movies. Closer to 70% for many of them. I think my 60% prediction is pretty generous. http://www.boxofficemojo.com/daily/chart/?view=1day&sortdate=2007-01-04&p=.htm Yes, I've read through that. I still leaning 50-60% (leaning closer to 60%). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Porthos Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 4 minutes ago, Porthos said: Sacramento Unified (the main school district in town) has the Winter Holidays as: Dec 23 - Jan 7. But we always have a two week break here, so it just matters when it lands on the calendar. By comparison, Elk Grove Unified is Dec 21 - Jan 1, so it's absolutely variable. On the other hand one of the other 'main' school districts in Sacramento, San Juan Unified, is also Dec 23 - Jan 7. So... ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ I'm also not sure how much this matters since I suspect TLJ is more adult-skewing than TFA or even R1. But I suppose every bit helps. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redfirebird2008 Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 4 minutes ago, LinksterAC said: Purely anecdotal, but my high school was back in session on January 2 in 2006. This year they're off until the 8th. In general, in California, the winter recess has gotten longer in the past decade. I really have no idea how that's going to play out this year. It may drop 60% like you suggest, but it may hold stronger than my forecast shows. It would be great to get data on this from @EmpireCity or @The Greatest Rth if they have access to it. If that happens, then the drops after next weekend are gonna be ugly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LinksterAC Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 (edited) 7 minutes ago, Sand-omJC said: Yes, I've read through that. I still leaning 50-60% (leaning closer to 60%). Here's the model with more "regular" weekday drops. Friday & Saturday boosts for January 5 and 6 are a little bit steeper, as is the Tuesday drop. Date Weekday Daily % change Through 25-Dec 395.6 26-Dec Tuesday 27.8 27-Dec Wednesday 21.8 -22% 28-Dec Thursday 19.4 -11% 29-Dec Friday 21.4 10% 30-Dec Saturday 23.5 10% 31-Dec Sunday 16.5 -30% WKND-3 61.3 1-Jan Monday 19.7 20% WKND-4 81.1 2-Jan Tuesday 8.9 -55% 3-Jan Wednesday 8.0 -10% 4-Jan Thursday 7.2 -10% 5-Jan Friday 13.0 80% 6-Jan Saturday 17.5 35% 7-Jan Sunday 10.1 -42% WKND 40.6 CUME 610.4 Edited December 29, 2017 by LinksterAC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the beast Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 Does anyone have projections for Jumanji Weekend for 3 and 4 day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
junkshop36 Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 43 minutes ago, REC said: Jan 3-5 seem a bit optimistic? TFA was barely cracking 10mil in its Jan 4-8 weekdays (only hitting 10.8 that friday the 8th) and TLJ is definitely underperforming that. I think your 3-5 estimates need to be cut in half. RO from Jan 3-6 ranged from 3-6m per day. While some schools start back on Tuesday and Wednesday, a lot aren’t going back until the following Monday. My wife doesn’t go back until the 8th. Should stay in that 10+ range Mon - Friday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
grey ghost Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 16 minutes ago, EmmaPeel said: Absolutely. Star Wars has always been stridently anti-fascist. The bad guys were literal space Nazis. Plot points in the prequels were also strongly influenced by the events leading to WWII. I always saw ANH as anti-Nazi and ROTJ as anti-Vietnam War. ROTS as anti-Bush (at least on the surface). TFA/TLJ as anti-neofascist. Kylo Ren is basically the typical alt right/MRA dork. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redfirebird2008 Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 3 minutes ago, junkshop36 said: While some schools start back on Tuesday and Wednesday, a lot aren’t going back until the following Monday. My wife doesn’t go back until the 8th. Should stay in that 10+ range Mon - Friday It’s not just school stuff. Lots of people were off work this week but will not be off work next week after Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
grim22 Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 @KeithF1138 has been threadbanned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
junkshop36 Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 5 minutes ago, redfirebird2008 said: It’s not just school stuff. Lots of people were off work this week but will not be off work next week after Monday. True, but schools being out isn’t just kids being out. It’s also everyone who works at the schools as well. It kind of balances out. If im wrong I’m wrong. Not like it’s never happened before lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
grey ghost Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 (edited) 25 minutes ago, KeithF1138 said: You really dont expect Mark Hamill back in Ep9? Fully expect him to be the most active Force ghost of all time. Dont even think Lucasfilm will hide that he is in the film. There are other characters connected to the Skywalker legacy also. (For further discussion we'd have to go to the spoiler thread) Edited December 29, 2017 by grey ghost Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RichWS Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 1 minute ago, grim22 said: @KeithF1138 5 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
