Thursday Numbers (Asgard): TLJ $19.5 J $15m

[Porthos]

All kidding with @Christmas baumer aside, this is exactly what I was talking about this year and last.  I was actually more than a little surprised to see just how 'low' the multipliers all were for all the films that did more than 180m+ OW with the notable exception of TFA.  Even pulling back to 175m+ OW, it gets hard to find a film with much more than a 3x multiplier. (edit: Jurassic World is the best non-TFA example at 3.12x)

 

More to the point, Baumer is exactly right about the prediction spread for TFA.  I wasn't on the board at the time, but I was still following from the sidelines and predictions for TFA didn't go through the roof until the "Chewie, We're Home" trailer hit.  And even then it was a rare poster to suggest it would come close to 1b DOM.

 

Hell, on the forum I help Admin, I openly mocked the person who said TFA would sail past Avatar with no trouble.  Not because I thought it was impossible to do.  More because I thought it was foolhardy to expect. Expecting north of 700m on ANY film is probably a bad bet.  Simply because it takes nearly everything to click right for it to happen.  Just one or two things fail to click for whatever reason...

 

Why you might have a disappointing 650m instead. 

 

Could TLJ have done more?  A LOT more?  Of course it could have.  It'd be asinine and revisionist for me to say otherwise.  At the same time a good friend of mine on that other board flat out told me that they were waiting to see TLJ when it landed on home video, because they felt they could wait.  Which I thought was kinda a sign at the time.

 

Either way, it's very likely that TLJ will do more than 400m AFTER opening weekend.  And that's damn good for any film, even if it could have done more.

 

 

Edited December 29, 2017 by Porthos

[Ryan Reynolds]

Episode IX box office won't be higher than TLJ, it will be lucky to match it

 

maybe if people don't leave the theater angry, it will have better repeat viewings

[NoLegMan]

Just now, Lordmandeep said:

 

 

Nah there are endless fan theories already about will happen in Episode 9. 

people never learn haha.

[Barnack]

38 minutes ago, George Parr said:

Actually, it still holds one record, biggest Thursday ever!

Depends how much of Force Awaken 57M thursday happened before Midnight I suppose....

[NoLegMan]

1 minute ago, Ryan Reynolds said:

Episode IX box office won't be higher than TLJ, it will be lucky to match it

 

maybe if people don't leave the theater angry, it will have better repeat viewings

marketing can have an impact. if they hit the right notes.

[REC]

8 minutes ago, LinksterAC said:

It held better this week than I expected based off of last week's numbers.  Looking ahead, TLJ may be around the $620M mark at the end of the holidays.  $700M is definitely still in play, though I wouldn't call it likely.  I think a 3+ multiplier is a high probability at this point.

 

Date	Weekday	Daily	% change
Through 25-Dec		395.6
26-Dec	Tuesday	27.8
27-Dec	Wednesday	21.8	-22%
28-Dec	Thursday	19.4	-11%
29-Dec	Friday	21.4	10%
30-Dec	Saturday	23.5	10%
31-Dec	Sunday	16.5	-30%	WKND-3	61.3
1-Jan	Monday	19.7	20%	WKND-4	81.1
2-Jan	Tuesday	11.8	-40%
3-Jan	Wednesday	10.7	-10%
4-Jan	Thursday	9.6	-10%
5-Jan	Friday	14.4	50%
6-Jan	Saturday	18.0	25%
7-Jan	Sunday	10.4	-42%	WKND	42.8
CUME		620.6

 

 

Jan 3-5 seem a bit optimistic?  TFA was barely cracking 10mil in its Jan 4-8 weekdays (only hitting 10.8 that friday the 8th) and TLJ is definitely underperforming that.  I think your 3-5 estimates need to be cut in half.

 

RO from Jan 3-6 ranged from 3-6m per day.

Edited December 29, 2017 by REC

[Lordmandeep]

2 minutes ago, NoLegMan said:

people never learn haha.

 

 

Perhaps, I think JJ is less worried about taking the more predictable path. 

[Barnack]

56 minutes ago, SWXII said:

 

A Star Wars trilogy film in this day and age should be able to do 1 billion DOM. Anything as coherent as ESB or RotJ would easily meet that threshold. But sadly these films seem more interested in servicing current political interests at the cost of what made the franchise great in the first place. TLJ has elements of greatness but it mostly misses as a Star Wars film the more I have thought about it. There is enough in place to make Episode IX a home run* however. I am cautiously optimistic.

 

*1 billion DOM

I am not sure what political interest you have in mind (is there a less political movie than Force Awaken...).

 

Sometime americans would call political stuff no one else on earth call political like are you talking about diverse cast ? If so, you need to consider how much of those choice are made purely by a company trying to boost has much has possible is box office with this franchise, they didn't cast big Asian stars in Rogue One for others reason than trying to install the franchise in new Asian market, woman because it was the movie weakest quadrant, etc...

 

There is a reason Force Awaken did so much and got close to a billion.

Edited December 29, 2017 by Barnack

[RandomCat]

3 minutes ago, REC said:

Jan 3-5 seem a bit optimistic?  TFA was barely cracking 10mil in its Jan 4-8 weekdays (only hitting 10.8 that friday the 8th) and TLJ is definitely underperforming that.  I think your 3-5 estimates need to be cut in half.

 

RO from Jan 3-6 ranged from 3-6m per day.

TLJ has holiday weekdays.

[NoLegMan]

I'm predicting a 15% drop this weekend, I will be wrong.

[Lordmandeep]

Revenge of the Sith was the most political of the Star Wars movies.

 

You have to be an idiot not to get the George Bush Allegories. 

[LinksterAC]

9 minutes ago, REC said:

Jan 3-5 seem a bit optimistic?  TFA was barely cracking 10mil in its Jan 4-8 weekdays (only hitting 10.8 that friday the 8th) and TLJ is definitely underperforming that.  I think your 3-5 estimates need to be cut in half.

 

RO from Jan 3-6 ranged from 3-6m per day.

It's a question of how the calendar plays out.

It's a really hard week to plot out, but there's no doubt a lot of schools are still on break during that week.  None were for TFA.  

The RO comparison is a little muddier.  More schools were back in session during that week than TLJ, but not all. 

TLJ has an advantage over both TFA and RO during the Jan 3-5 weekdays, it's just hard to say how much.  

Edited December 29, 2017 by LinksterAC

[grey ghost]

33 minutes ago, mikee11 said:

Force Awakens ended on a OT character cliffhanger, unanswered mysteries  and OT cast were all over the advertisements. IX doesn't have any of that. I think it will have some impact.

SW trilogies peak with the first movie, drop significantly with the second then increase with the last.

 

I doubt SW9 will break the trend.

 

It's the last Skywalker saga movie in history.

[NoLegMan]

 I also think PP3 will take a bigger hit, and I think Jumunji is being overestimated. 

[redfirebird2008]

9 minutes ago, REC said:

Jan 3-5 seem a bit optimistic?  TFA was barely cracking 10mil in its Jan 4-8 weekdays (only hitting 10.8 that friday the 8th) and TLJ is definitely underperforming that.  I think your 3-5 estimates need to be cut in half.

 

RO from Jan 3-6 ranged from 3-6m per day.

 

For the 2006 releases, they were down about 60% for Tuesday-Thursday versus this week. That would put next Thursday around $7.8 million. 

[AndyLL]

Moderation:

 

No talk about specific scenes in the current movies... take it to the spoiler thread.

 

@EmpireCity @The Greatest Rth - any percentages of how many schools are in/out of session

[George Parr]

18 minutes ago, Barnack said:

Depends how much of Force Awaken 57M thursday happened before Midnight I suppose....

Well, the previews can't count for both days, now can they?

 

I thought about mentioning TFA's previews, but the whole thing was more of a joke anyway, so I didn't really bother

[redfirebird2008]

18 minutes ago, Sand-omJC said:

TLJ has holiday weekdays.

 

Not to the extent of the projection in that post. Looking at 2006 releases, it will be down about 60% from Tuesday-Thursday performance this week. TFA and Rogue One were down 75% by comparison. 

Edited December 29, 2017 by redfirebird2008

[RandomCat]

1 minute ago, redfirebird2008 said:

 

Not to the extent of the projection in that post. Looking at 2006 releases, it will be down about 60% from Tuesday-Thursday performance this week. 

2006 hasn't been the best basis, nothing really has.

[REC]

16 minutes ago, LinksterAC said:

It's a question of how the calendar plays out.

It's a really hard week to plot out, but there's no doubt a lot of schools are still on break during that week.  None were for TFA.  

The RO comparison is a little muddier.  More schools were back in session during that week than TLJ, but not all. 

TLJ has an advantage over both TFA and RO during the Jan 3-5 weekdays, it's just hard to say how much.  

Yeah not where I'm at and afaik that's not normal.  But yes I see some schools are out that week.  I'm surprised any school would be off after Jan 2nd.