New Year's Day Weekend Thread: Late Friday estimates (DHD) - TLJ 19.5M, Jumanji 17.5M, PP3 6.7M, TGS 5.3M

[Ryan Reynolds]

And TLJ just hit 50%

https://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/star_wars_the_last_jedi

[a2k]

12 minutes ago, Ryan Reynolds said:

And TLJ just hit 50%

https://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/star_wars_the_last_jedi

Is inching toward TLK's 45% 

Spoiler

(but did beat TLK's dom within 2 days and will go over TLK's 615 ww with the dom alone )

 

[BadAtGender]

1	Star Wars: The Last Jedi	BV	$533,089,228	4,232	$220,009,584	4,232	12/15	-
2	Beauty and the Beast (2017)	BV	$504,014,165	4,210	$174,750,616	4,210	3/17	7/13
3	Wonder Woman	WB	$412,563,408	4,165	$103,251,471	4,165	6/2	11/9
4	Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2	BV	$389,813,101	4,347	$146,510,104	4,347	5/5	9/21
5	Spider-Man: Homecoming	Sony	$334,201,140	4,348	$117,027,503	4,348	7/7	11/30
6	It	WB (NL)	$327,481,748	4,148	$123,403,419	4,103	9/8	12/14
7	Thor: Ragnarok	BV	$311,441,239	4,080	$122,744,989	4,080	11/3	-
8	Despicable Me 3	Uni.	$264,624,300	4,535	$72,434,025	4,529	6/30	12/21
9	Logan	Fox	$226,277,068	4,071	$88,411,916	4,071	3/3	7/13
10	Justice League	WB	$225,897,455	4,051	$93,842,239	4,051	11/17	-

 

 

JL's only 400k short of Logan, which means that even though Jumanji is going to pass it, it will still finish up in the top 10 for the year. Not a good run, but I suppose there's some measure of saving face there.

 

And Jumanji could finish up, oh, probably anywhere from 8th to 5th.

[Mojoguy]

I can't wait for SONY to finally put up the Actuals for Jumanj in a few hours.

I WANT THE NUMBERS!

[Porthos]

So let me get this straight, TLJ is disliked more than the Ghostbusters reboot according the RT Audience score:

 

Quote

AUDIENCE SCORE 

 

52%

liked it

Average Rating: 3.1/5

User Ratings: 116,430

Quote

AUDIENCE SCORE 

 

50%

liked it

Average Rating: 3.1/5

User Ratings: 164,286

 

Sounds legit.

Edited January 2, 2018 by Porthos

[Brainbug]

5 minutes ago, Porthos said:

So let me get this straight, TLJ is disliked more than the Ghostbusters reboot according the RT Audience score:

 

 

Sounds legit.

 

Porthos, dont feed the trolls

[Ryan Reynolds]

11 minutes ago, Porthos said:

So let me get this straight, TLJ is disliked more than the Ghostbusters reboot according the RT Audience score:

 

 

Sounds legit.

Ewoks rated higher

 

https://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/ewoks_the_battle_for_endor

[Porthos]

14 minutes ago, Brainbug said:

 

Porthos, dont feed the trolls

The trolls aren't here.

Spoiler

 

For the most part. 

 

So I feel safe in mocking them from a distance.

 

Edited January 2, 2018 by Porthos

[Porthos]

A bit more seriously.

 

I don't deny that the word of mouth is mixed.

 

However if the WOM was as bad as some on the intrawebs would have us believe, I find it difficult to believe this would be true:

 

THIRD WEEKEND CHART (ADJ)

Quote

Note: This chart only shows the top 200 movies, regardless of sorting.

Rank	Title (click to view)	Studio	Weeknd Gross*	% of Total	Theaters / Avg.		Adjusted Gross^	Date**
1	Star Wars: The Force Awakens	BV	$93,922,900	9.7%	4,134	$22,719	$965,467,800	12/18/15
2	Avatar	Fox	$76,933,600	9.0%	3,461	$22,228	$856,544,300	12/18/09
3	Spider-Man	Sony	$69,222,000	11.2%	3,615	$19,148	$620,498,800	5/3/02
4	Titanic	Par.	$63,434,000	5.5%	2,727	$23,262	$1,146,128,800	12/19/97
5	Marvel's The Avengers	BV	$61,194,800	8.9%	4,249	$14,402	$686,549,200	5/4/12
6	Twister	WB	$59,894,500	12.3%	2,808	$21,329	$488,365,000	5/10/96
7	Jurassic Park	Uni.	$59,728,600	7.8%	2,444	$24,439	$769,818,200	6/11/93
8	Jurassic World	Uni.	$59,027,400	8.4%	4,198	$14,061	$705,909,400	6/12/15
9	Star Wars: Episode I - The Phantom Menace	Fox	$57,819,400	7.6%	3,024	$19,119	$757,494,400	5/19/99
10	Shrek 2	DW	$54,545,900	8.6%	4,131	$13,204	$634,484,800	5/19/04
11	The Dark Knight	WB	$53,062,900	8.0%	4,266	$12,439	$663,222,300	7/18/08
12	Star Wars: The Last Jedi	BV	$52,661,000	%	4,232	$12,444	n/a	12/15/17
13	The Lion King	BV	$52,181,800	7.8%	2,565	$20,345	$666,395,700	6/24/94
14	Rogue One: A Star Wars Story	BV	$50,114,100	9.3%	4,157	$12,056	$539,743,700	12/16/16
15	Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets	WB	$49,364,800	12.3%	3,682	$13,407	$401,098,800	11/15/02
16	Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest	BV	$48,011,000	8.3%	4,133	$11,616	$577,131,300	7/7/06
17	Forrest Gump	Par.	$46,853,500	6.7%	2,095	$22,363	$701,412,300	7/6/94
18	The Passion of the Christ	NM	$46,204,400	8.7%	3,221	$14,344	$532,456,100	2/25/04
19	Beauty and the Beast (2017)	BV	$45,319,200	8.9%	4,210	$10,765	$507,208,000	3/17/17
20	How the Grinch Stole Christmas	Uni.	$44,892,900	10.5%	3,138	$14,306	$429,593,900	11/17/00

I even made it adjusted AND kept the years where multipliers were much better than nowadays.

 

That is not a list of horribly received films.

 

Yeah, yeah.  Three day shmeeday.  One of them was NYE. Whatever.

 

My point is while the second weekend drop percentage wise was pretty damn big, this is still a movie raking in the bucks this weekend.  And, yes, obligatory side note: It could be more.

 

But this is not the 3rd weekend of a film that has the WOM where half the audience hates it.  65% to 75% approval I'll buy.  Hell, I'll even buy

15% hate

30% Meh

25% Good

30% Great

Though it's really unquantifiable.

 

But 50% dislike?  This is not the third weekend of a film that has THAT kind of audience score. IMNSHO.

[Brainbug]

14 minutes ago, Porthos said:

But 50% dislike?  This is not the third weekend of a film that has THAT kind of audience score. IMNSHO.

 

Thats why i still believe that the people believing this will fall of a cliff completely after the holidays are mistaken.

[a2k]

Phantom Menace is an apt (and the only one I have honestly) example of legs and huge numbers not at all in sync with the wom. Even off the 5-day Wed-Sun total it did 4.08x multiplier (431.09/105.66). It's sub-30% weekend drops are more than 30%+ drops despite summer weekdays being strong http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=weekend&id=starwars.htm

 

And those are 1999 numbers so one can imagine how big they are in admissions considering it's been nearly 20 years.

 

Huge daily/weekend numbers + more than 4x multi of the 5-day total (Wonder Woman in comparison did 3.19x of it's 5-day total: 412.56/129.350) =/= great wom

 

Everybody had to check it out once, twice, thrice and unlike now maybe people did so with less haste.

[Brainbug]

3 minutes ago, a2knet said:

Phantom Menace is an apt (and the only one I have honestly) example of legs and huge numbers not at all in sync with the wom. Even off the 5-day Wed-Sun total it did 4.08x multiplier (431.09/105.66). It's sub-30% weekend drops are more than 30%+ drops despite summer weekdays being strong http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=weekend&id=starwars.htm

 

And those are 1999 numbers so one can imagine how big they are in admissions considering it's been nearly 20 years.

 

Huge daily/weekend numbers + more than 4x multi of the 5-day total (Wonder Woman in comparison did 3.19x of it's 5-day total: 412.56/129.350) =/= great wom

 

Everybody had to check it out once, twice, thrice and unlike now maybe people did so with less haste.

 

TPM had no bad WoM, thats a common myth. Reviews were good to great at the time and comments on the movie from the time showed that everyone was just extremely happy that SW returned.

 

The dislike for TPM came after its run.

[a2k]

1 hour ago, DameronRoc said:

1	Star Wars: The Last Jedi	BV	$533,089,228	4,232	$220,009,584	4,232	12/15	-
2	Beauty and the Beast (2017)	BV	$504,014,165	4,210	$174,750,616	4,210	3/17	7/13
3	Wonder Woman	WB	$412,563,408	4,165	$103,251,471	4,165	6/2	11/9
4	Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2	BV	$389,813,101	4,347	$146,510,104	4,347	5/5	9/21
5	Spider-Man: Homecoming	Sony	$334,201,140	4,348	$117,027,503	4,348	7/7	11/30
6	It	WB (NL)	$327,481,748	4,148	$123,403,419	4,103	9/8	12/14
7	Thor: Ragnarok	BV	$311,441,239	4,080	$122,744,989	4,080	11/3	-
8	Despicable Me 3	Uni.	$264,624,300	4,535	$72,434,025	4,529	6/30	12/21
9	Logan	Fox	$226,277,068	4,071	$88,411,916	4,071	3/3	7/13
10	Justice League	WB	$225,897,455	4,051	$93,842,239	4,051	11/17	-

 

 

JL's only 400k short of Logan, which means that even though Jumanji is going to pass it, it will still finish up in the top 10 for the year. Not a good run, but I suppose there's some measure of saving face there.

 

And Jumanji could finish up, oh, probably anywhere from 8th to 5th.

Amazing that the O/U Logan fears after the ow were not unfounded afterall. After a better 3rd weekend drop (-42%) than expected 235+ (even 240+ optimistically) was still on table. That time it felt as if the initial Logan benchmark was typical gloom and doom. But now it will go over Logan by less than 2m.

Edited January 2, 2018 by a2knet

[JonathanLB]

2 minutes ago, Brainbug said:

 

TPM had no bad WoM, thats a common myth. Reviews were good to great at the time and comments on the movie from the time showed that everyone was just extremely happy that SW returned.

 

The dislike for TPM came after its run.

Very true. No joke I saw it in theaters every month from May through Jan 2000 and it drew applause through August. I saw it 50 times. And loved it every time. 

[Brainbug]

1 minute ago, JonathanLB said:

Very true. No joke I saw it in theaters every month from May through Jan 2000 and it drew applause through August. I saw it 50 times. And loved it every time. 

 

[Daxtreme]

48 minutes ago, Porthos said:

A bit more seriously.

 

I don't deny that the word of mouth is mixed.

 

However if the WOM was as bad as some on the intrawebs would have us believe, I find it difficult to believe this would be true:

 

THIRD WEEKEND CHART (ADJ)

I even made it adjusted AND kept the years where multipliers were much better than nowadays.

 

That is not a list of horribly received films.

 

Yeah, yeah.  Three day shmeeday.  One of them was NYE. Whatever.

 

My point is while the second weekend drop percentage wise was pretty damn big, this is still a movie raking in the bucks this weekend.  And, yes, obligatory side note: It could be more.

 

But this is not the 3rd weekend of a film that has the WOM where half the audience hates it.  65% to 75% approval I'll buy.  Hell, I'll even buy

15% hate

30% Meh

25% Good

30% Great

Though it's really unquantifiable.

 

But 50% dislike?  This is not the third weekend of a film that has THAT kind of audience score. IMNSHO.

 

Moreover, week-ends during the end-of-year holidays are hard to compare not only between each other (example TFA vs TLJ), but also between other releases simply because of the awkward grosses due to Christmas Eve and New Years' Eve

 

 

[a2k]

5 minutes ago, Brainbug said:

 

TPM had no bad WoM, thats a common myth. Reviews were good to great at the time and comments on the movie from the time showed that everyone was just extremely happy that SW returned.

 

The dislike for TPM came after its run.

Maybe so. Else doing 4x+ the 5-day period doesn't make much sense, at least going by the current loathing it gets (which I think is a tad unjustified. Was worth a watch IMO. Reserve all the hatred for Clones).

[Hatebox]

Yes, there was definitely a bit of collective hysteria over TPM at the time where it was like people couldn't quite admit that perhaps the most hyped film ever just wasn't that great (and then some). It's hard to say exactly when the more appropriate reaction we know today became mainstream but it was many months if not years after release.

 

 

Edited January 2, 2018 by Hatebox

[AndyLL]

36 minutes ago, a2knet said:

Phantom Menace is an apt (and the only one I have honestly) example of legs and huge numbers not at all in sync with the wom. Even off the 5-day Wed-Sun total it did 4.08x multiplier (431.09/105.66). It's sub-30% weekend drops are more than 30%+ drops despite summer weekdays being strong http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=weekend&id=starwars.htm

 

 

30 minutes ago, Brainbug said:

 

TPM had no bad WoM, thats a common myth. Reviews were good to great at the time and comments on the movie from the time showed that everyone was just extremely happy that SW returned.

 

The dislike for TPM came after its run.

 

28 minutes ago, JonathanLB said:

Very true. No joke I saw it in theaters every month from May through Jan 2000 and it drew applause through August. I saw it 50 times. And loved it every time. 

 

8 minutes ago, Hatebox said:

Yes, there was definitely a bit of collective hysteria over TPM at the time where it was like people couldn't quite admit that perhaps the most hyped film ever could be anything less than great. It's hard to say exactly when the more appropriate reaction we know today became mainstream but it was many months if not years after release.

 

The parallels are close.  TPM pissed off Star War fanboys that wanted more of the OT. (including myself)

 

In general TPM are well liked by the GA and the BO reflected it.  

 

TLJ is well like by the GA and the box office is reflecting it.

 

The difference these days is that instead of nerds whining about it on message boards you have Nerds With Bots. 

 

A movie doing over 650M does not have 'mixed' WOM.

 

[lab276]

I remember back in 2010, when we were all shocked at the terrible numbers being posted at the box office that year, especially compared with 2009. Well, we're now 100m tickets clear of 2010.