New Year's Day Weekend Thread: Late Friday estimates (DHD) - TLJ 19.5M, Jumanji 17.5M, PP3 6.7M, TGS 5.3M

[grim22]

 

 

[WrathOfHan]

Jumanji managed to go up about 100k while TLJ went down 1.2M  

[Noctis]

On 1/1/2018 at 8:17 PM, Noctis said:

Probably $14.5m

[AndyChrono]

TLJ below estimates yet again by over $1m.

[WrathOfHan]

Just now, Noctis said:

[mikee11]

whoever predicted around  10% NYD  increase was right

[a2k]

TLJ is:

88 away from 620

91.5 from TA

98 from 630

108 from 640

118 from 650

120 from JW

after a 67.4 4-day.

RO added 91.3 more after a 65.5 4-day. Same legs gives TLJ 94 more.

[Noctis]

6 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

[WrathOfHan]

Just now, Noctis said:

What will the Tuesday number be?  

[The Panda]

2 hours ago, Brainbug said:

 

Yeah, even though i myself have no intention in seeing it, i cant see it grossing under 300M in the US. Its SW. Domestically, nothing ever gets close to that title.

I also think a lot of the people on here saying they won’t see it will be there OW when it’s all said and done 

[TwoMisfits]

6 minutes ago, a2knet said:

TLJ is:

88 away from 620

91.5 from TA

98 from 630

108 from 640

118 from 650

120 from JW

after a 67.4 4-day.

RO added 91.3 more after a 65.5 4-day. Same legs gives TLJ 94 more.

I'd say same legs is gonna be tough...RO lost 1K theaters weekend 5 and then pretty much 500/week.  I imagine if this continues to fall off as it has, theater drops may be more rapid for TLJ...especially since mid-Jan on has lots of new openers and plans for limited expansions...and I expect both Jumanji and The Greatest Showman (which has started some stellar back end legs and which is a senior citizen draw for empty weekdays) will last longer at the small and midsizes which will be under the crunch...

Edited January 2, 2018 by TwoMisfits

[MrGlass2]

12 minutes ago, Sand-omJC said:

Hollywood has always loved sequels, this isn't some new phenomenon, they've been churning out sequels for a century now.

That is missing the point, again. Just look at the graph, or at the top 10 DOM for this year. Today sequels (or worse for this debate, "franchises") not only dominate but have an almost complete monopoly on the top ranks of the box office. And you could never see a year like 1981 at the moment, where most of the most successful movies are originals.

It is a new phenomenon.

[junkshop36]

Off to see TLJ for a 4th time. Will see Jumanji later as well. 

[Noctis]

2 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

What will the Tuesday number be?  

$6.9m-$7.15m

[George Parr]

21 minutes ago, Eastwood47 said:

When has ANY Star Wars film not been hyped to the moon? You think TFA was not successful because of the nostalgic hype it catered to? REALLY? So you think the next film would not benefit from that? REALLY? 

 

And I don't drink the Kool-aid on this middle chapter nonsense. You're watching Star Wars 8...period.  I was in theaters back in 1977 to see Star Wars. It had no chapter reference. It was one movie. It was an event. It changed how people went to movies, made movies, and merchandised movies. No film in this series has ever approached that achievement since. And when Lucas actually started the next Star Wars movies he called it Star Wars II. So spare me the middle chapter theory. You're too far in the marketing hole on that one. 

 

In terms of my last paragraph reference, I NEVER said anything about the third weekend results having meaning other than to illustrate that even with a stacked market in Star Wars favor (retaining the biggest halls and format screens), it still can not strangle off good ole fashion demand. I wasn't comparing it to Avengers. I was making that distinction because I was responding to the previous comment that Jedi's box office was already sowing up it's legacy in the franchise. I was illustrating that big returns early does not mean how the film will last in the eyes of fans or the general public for that matter. We have not crossed that territory to know yet. 

 

Phantom Menace was in theaters seven months when it was brand new. When Lucas wanted to bring it back in theaters as a 3D event, it barely made any money. So trying to project the relevance of Last Jedi at this early stage is pretty pointless since it doesn't retain the hallmarks of a film that will go down as one of the most popular or most successful. That is my point. 

God lord, it's not that hard to understand what the comment was about.

 

The original Star Wars was huge, the sequel dropped big time, even though it was still one of the biggest movies ever. Return of the Jedi then went up slightly again, but didn't come close to the original either.

Then, after 16 years of wait, with only the Special Editions in between, there is a new trilogy. TPM hits it of in a big way, with the sequel dropping, and the last movie of the trilogy rising a bit again without being able to match the first one.

Then there are no new Star Wars movies for quite some time. After ten years, the series returns, with the old stars, and TFA, like ANH and TPM before it, delivers a gigantic opening to the trilogy. What follows is a second part that cannot keep the audience.

 

You can argue all you want, facts remain facts. The first of the trilogy has always been by far the biggest, and the second one always drops. None of that has anything to do with marketing (where in the world was there any marketing about TLJ being the middle chapter? oh that's right, there wasn't any, you are wrong once again).

 

As for TPM "barely making any money" with its re-release. Ha, maybe you should look what re-releases generally make, it's not a ton. The movie did perfectly fine. Nowhere close to the Special Edition, and it didn't reach the height of some other re-releases either, but those were often for even older movies anyway, movies that generally hadn't been in cinemas for a long time, and for the most part, movies that didn't have any sequels/prequels in the meantime either.

[Fancyarcher]

7 minutes ago, New Year New Panda said:

I also think a lot of the people on here saying they won’t see it will be there OW when it’s all said and done 

Sounds about right.

[redfirebird2008]

18 minutes ago, Noctis said:

 

You are on a hell of a run. Nice job.

[meriodejaneiro]

20 minutes ago, grim22 said:

 

 

Oh gosh!!! That's like hardcore fuel for @robcain 's fire bomb. 

[Lordmandeep]

IDK, TLJ not beating Jurrasic World is sort of well a let down. 

[Eastwood47]

5 minutes ago, George Parr said:

God lord, it's not that hard to understand what the comment was about.

 

The original Star Wars was huge, the sequel dropped big time, even though it was still one of the biggest movies ever. Return of the Jedi then went up slightly again, but didn't come close to the original either.

Then, after 16 years of wait, with only the Special Editions in between, there is a new trilogy. TPM hits it of in a big way, with the sequel dropping, and the last movie of the trilogy rising a bit again without being able to match the first one.

Then there are no new Star Wars movies for quite some time. After ten years, the series returns, with the old stars, and TFA, like ANH and TPM before it, delivers a gigantic opening to the trilogy. What follows is a second part that cannot keep the audience.

 

You can argue all you want, facts remain facts. The first of the trilogy has always been by far the biggest, and the second one always drops. None of that has anything to do with marketing (where in the world was there any marketing about TLJ being the middle chapter? oh that's right, there wasn't any, you are wrong once again).

 

As for TPM "barely making any money" with its re-release. Ha, maybe you should look what re-releases generally make, it's not a ton. The movie did perfectly fine. Nowhere close to the Special Edition, and it didn't reach the height of some other re-releases either, but those were often for even older movies anyway, movies that generally hadn't been in cinemas for a long time, and for the most part, movies that didn't have any sequels/prequels in the meantime either.

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=2&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0ahUKEwiAuaSh6rnYAhUH6YMKHQUlBLoQFgg3MAE&url=https%3A%2F%2Fgizmodo.com%2F5979671%2Flucasfilm-kills-3d-star-wars-prequels-after-realizing-its-horrible-and-everyone-hates-it&usg=AOvVaw0Bo0cqwMggJQm-mldnUd_e

 

You keep thinking that.