New Year's Day Weekend Thread: Late Friday estimates (DHD) - TLJ 19.5M, Jumanji 17.5M, PP3 6.7M, TGS 5.3M

[redfirebird2008]

7 minutes ago, hw64 said:

You realize what it needs to do to pass Titanic, right?

 

Outpace Rogue One by 40.8% every single day for the rest of its run off of a weekend that outpaced Rogue One by less than 2%?

 

From Monday to Monday it's 5.7% ahead of Rogue One and that is cutting out Rogue One's Christmas Day boost in the comparison. The calendar excuse falls apart once you look at Monday the 25th all the way to now.

 

If that 5.7% pace continues, it will finish at $628m. Even giving it a nice boost from Tuesday to Thursday this week, I don't see it finishing much higher than $640m.

[TwoMisfits]

5 minutes ago, BXT said:

Moviepass business model is unrealistic if they only have a million or two members who are all regular moviegoers but what if they get 50-60 million subscribers most of whom aren't regular movie goers. Suddenly they are generating $6 billion or more (if they hike the price) in revenues every year and thousands of big corporations are interested in their big data.

That's getting the couples and family business...couples for $18.99/month and 4 person families in for $29.99/month and now you've got even more money "in" with people undoubtedly as less frequent goers...they probably do not want to "add" this until they get a feel for the breakdown of super vs normal vs casual users in their base now and how that might change...

 

I mean, families who can only see each movie once would be a money bonanza, b/c they'd pretty much only have one-two movie options/month, and they probably wouldn't be interested in every option...but the certainty of having the plan would get them in...

 

I mean, I barely watch Netflix, but I have it for the Disney supers tv (not even the movies) and "when I want it or my kids do"...my kids are pretty much Youtube watchers, so that makes me a casual Netflix user...but one who knows its still "worth it" for $10.99/month...

Edited January 2, 2018 by TwoMisfits

[BXT]

3 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

That's getting the couples and family business...couples for $18.99/month and 4 person families in for $29.99/month and now you've got even more money "in" with people undoubtedly as less frequent goers...they probably do not want to "add" this until they get a feel for the breakdown of super vs normal vs casual users in their base now and how that might change...

 

I mean, families who can only see each movie once would be a money bonanza, b/c they'd pretty much only have one-two movie options/month, and they probably wouldn't be interested in every option...but the certainty of having the plan would get them in...

 

I mean, I barely watch Netflix, but I have it for the Disney supers tv (not even the movies) and "when I want it or my kids do"...my kids are pretty much Youtube watchers, so that makes me a casual Netflix user...but one who knows its still "worth it" for $10.99/month...

Yeah, Netflix isn't profitable either but they will be fine as long as they keep generating insane amount of revenues and keep growing their subscription base.

[hw64]

7 minutes ago, redfirebird2008 said:

 

From Monday to Monday it's 5.7% ahead of Rogue One and that is cutting out Rogue One's Christmas Day boost in the comparison. The calendar excuse falls apart once you look at Monday the 25th all the way to now.

 

If that 5.7% pace continues, it will finish at $628m. Even giving it a nice boost from Tuesday to Thursday this week, I don't see it finishing much higher than $640m.

It hasn't shown any real signs of stabilizing relative to Rogue One either yet, so it's possible (aside from these three weekdays which will have a boost) that it starts to fall behind Rogue One day-to-day maybe next week and beyond.

[redfirebird2008]

4 minutes ago, hw64 said:

It hasn't shown any real signs of stabilizing relative to Rogue One either yet, so it's possible (aside from these three weekdays which will have a boost) that it starts to fall behind Rogue One day-to-day maybe next week and beyond.

 

Quite possible. Both movies will be on a more similar track with no holiday boost beginning next Monday. I would like to see TLJ reach $636.67m and get within $300m of Force Awakens. Won't be the easiest thing to do at this point.

Edited January 2, 2018 by redfirebird2008

[a2k]

		Movie	Distributor	Gross	Change	Thtrs.	Per Thtr.	Total Gross	Days
1	(2)	Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle	Sony Pictures	$16,222,389	+25%	3,765	$4,309	$185,224,946	13
2	(1)	Star Wars Ep. VIII: The Las…	Walt Disney	$14,293,461	+5%	4,232	$3,377	$531,511,829	18
3	(3)	The Greatest Showman	20th Century Fox	$5,385,815	+21%	3,316	$1,624	$54,422,533	13
4	(4)	Pitch Perfect 3	Universal	$4,865,865	+36%	3,468	$1,403	$68,166,470	11
5	(5)	Ferdinand	20th Century Fox	$3,465,756	+26%	3,337	$1,039	$57,012,473	18
6	(6)	Coco	Walt Disney	$2,621,314	+42%	2,104	$1,246	$182,455,513	41
7	(8)	All the Money in the World	Sony Pictures	$1,630,252	-7%	2,074	$786	$14,342,632	8
8	(9)	Downsizing	Paramount Pictures	$1,546,407	+21%	2,664	$580	$18,707,081	11
9	(7)	Darkest Hour	Focus Features	$1,525,195	-14%	943	$1,617	$19,658,052	41
10	(11)	The Shape of Water	Fox Searchlight	$1,193,283	+20%	756	$1,578	$16,863,460	32
11	(12)	Wonder	Lionsgate	$1,020,395	+20%	1,193	$855	$122,579,689	46
12	(13)	Molly’s Game	STX Entertainment	$760,102	+4%	271	$2,805	$6,137,582	8
13	(14)	Lady Bird	A24	$435,017	+12%	392	$1,110	$31,867,480	60
14	(-)	The Disaster Artist	A24	$308,329	+54%	507	$608	$18,170,124	32
15	(-)	Daddy’s Home 2	Paramount Pictures	$280,549	+15%	1,073	$261	$102,071,930	53
-	(-)	Thor: Ragnarok	Walt Disney	$274,976	+33%	540	$509	$311,500,126	60
-	(-)	I, Tonya	Neon	$221,082	+43%	49	$4,512	$2,572,435	25
-	(-)	Three Billboards Outside Eb…	Fox Searchlight	$198,152	-2%	266	$745	$24,362,781	53
-	(-)	Murder on the Orient Express	20th Century Fox	$196,704	+12%	391	$503	$100,816,328	53
-	(-)	The Post	20th Century Fox	$187,108	n/c	9	$20,790	$1,947,229	11

[Maxmoser3]

Actuals been up yet? Box office mojo has been dead 

[vc2002]

13 minutes ago, a2knet said:

		Movie	Distributor	Gross	Change	Thtrs.	Per Thtr.	Total Gross	Days
1	(2)	Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle	Sony Pictures	$16,222,389	+25%	3,765	$4,309	$185,224,946	13
2	(1)	Star Wars Ep. VIII: The Las…	Walt Disney	$14,293,461	+5%	4,232	$3,377	$531,511,829	18
3	(3)	The Greatest Showman	20th Century Fox	$5,385,815	+21%	3,316	$1,624	$54,422,533	13
4	(4)	Pitch Perfect 3	Universal	$4,865,865	+36%	3,468	$1,403	$68,166,470	11
5	(5)	Ferdinand	20th Century Fox	$3,465,756	+26%	3,337	$1,039	$57,012,473	18
6	(6)	Coco	Walt Disney	$2,621,314	+42%	2,104	$1,246	$182,455,513	41
7	(8)	All the Money in the World	Sony Pictures	$1,630,252	-7%	2,074	$786	$14,342,632	8
8	(9)	Downsizing	Paramount Pictures	$1,546,407	+21%	2,664	$580	$18,707,081	11
9	(7)	Darkest Hour	Focus Features	$1,525,195	-14%	943	$1,617	$19,658,052	41
10	(11)	The Shape of Water	Fox Searchlight	$1,193,283	+20%	756	$1,578	$16,863,460	32
11	(12)	Wonder	Lionsgate	$1,020,395	+20%	1,193	$855	$122,579,689	46
12	(13)	Molly’s Game	STX Entertainment	$760,102	+4%	271	$2,805	$6,137,582	8
13	(14)	Lady Bird	A24	$435,017	+12%	392	$1,110	$31,867,480	60
14	(-)	The Disaster Artist	A24	$308,329	+54%	507	$608	$18,170,124	32
15	(-)	Daddy’s Home 2	Paramount Pictures	$280,549	+15%	1,073	$261	$102,071,930	53
-	(-)	Thor: Ragnarok	Walt Disney	$274,976	+33%	540	$509	$311,500,126	60
-	(-)	I, Tonya	Neon	$221,082	+43%	49	$4,512	$2,572,435	25
-	(-)	Three Billboards Outside Eb…	Fox Searchlight	$198,152	-2%	266	$745	$24,362,781	53
-	(-)	Murder on the Orient Express	20th Century Fox	$196,704	+12%	391	$503	$100,816,328	53
-	(-)	The Post	20th Century Fox	$187,108	n/c	9	$20,790	$1,947,229	11

 

Jumanji almost 2m more than TLJ.  TLJ again dropped a lot from estimates.

[a2k]

JUMANJI goes over COCO, 185.2 vs 182.5.

Will go over JL soon and has a shot at going over THOR3 to be the #2 Holiday film of 2017 only behind TLJ

(unless one counts in-year cume only in which case it will be TLJ, THOR3, JL, COCO, JUMANJI as the top 5).

[Blaze Heatnix]

I can't wait to see Sony confirming a Jumanji sequel and the same release date of Star Wars Episode IX. I'll laugh a lot if that happens.

 

 

[a2k]

1 minute ago, Blaze Heatnix said:

I can't wait to see Sony confirming a Jumanji sequel and the same release date of Star Wars Episode IX. I'll laugh a lot if that happens.

 

 

I hope they call it JUMANJI EPISODE III

[vc2002]

6 minutes ago, Blaze Heatnix said:

I can't wait to see Sony confirming a Jumanji sequel and the same release date of Star Wars Episode IX. I'll laugh a lot if that happens.

 

 

 

Jumanji went from Ghostbuster remake to Star Wars killer in just a few weeks.

 

Edited January 3, 2018 by vc2002

[MCKillswitch123]

1 hour ago, CJohn said:

Black Panther will do similar numbers to GotG2, Wonder Woman and Doctor Strange, IMO. I don't think it will go as high as SMH, Ragnarok or JL. Opening after the sure to be record breaking first week of Fifty Shades 2 won't help.

 

Peter Rabbit is the only kids movie opening over the Easter vacations so your wish might come close to reality

"Record breaking first week of Fifty Shades [I believe you meant 3, not 2]". Now aren't those some depressing words.

 

THAT SONY ANIMATION POWAH  It definitely can't perform worse than Ninjago or My Little Pony, I reckon 

Edited January 3, 2018 by MCKillswitch123

[a2k]

btw, the current multiplier of SW8 is 2.42x (531.5/220.0) and will at least do 2.8x+ (616+) for those who were comparing the 2nd weekend drop to BVS which finished at 1.99x.

[TwoMisfits]

24 minutes ago, a2knet said:

		Movie	Distributor	Gross	Change	Thtrs.	Per Thtr.	Total Gross	Days
1	(2)	Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle	Sony Pictures	$16,222,389	+25%	3,765	$4,309	$185,224,946	13
2	(1)	Star Wars Ep. VIII: The Las…	Walt Disney	$14,293,461	+5%	4,232	$3,377	$531,511,829	18
3	(3)	The Greatest Showman	20th Century Fox	$5,385,815	+21%	3,316	$1,624	$54,422,533	13
4	(4)	Pitch Perfect 3	Universal	$4,865,865	+36%	3,468	$1,403	$68,166,470	11
5	(5)	Ferdinand	20th Century Fox	$3,465,756	+26%	3,337	$1,039	$57,012,473	18
6	(6)	Coco	Walt Disney	$2,621,314	+42%	2,104	$1,246	$182,455,513	41
7	(8)	All the Money in the World	Sony Pictures	$1,630,252	-7%	2,074	$786	$14,342,632	8
8	(9)	Downsizing	Paramount Pictures	$1,546,407	+21%	2,664	$580	$18,707,081	11
9	(7)	Darkest Hour	Focus Features	$1,525,195	-14%	943	$1,617	$19,658,052	41
10	(11)	The Shape of Water	Fox Searchlight	$1,193,283	+20%	756	$1,578	$16,863,460	32
11	(12)	Wonder	Lionsgate	$1,020,395	+20%	1,193	$855	$122,579,689	46
12	(13)	Molly’s Game	STX Entertainment	$760,102	+4%	271	$2,805	$6,137,582	8
13	(14)	Lady Bird	A24	$435,017	+12%	392	$1,110	$31,867,480	60
14	(-)	The Disaster Artist	A24	$308,329	+54%	507	$608	$18,170,124	32
15	(-)	Daddy’s Home 2	Paramount Pictures	$280,549	+15%	1,073	$261	$102,071,930	53
-	(-)	Thor: Ragnarok	Walt Disney	$274,976	+33%	540	$509	$311,500,126	60
-	(-)	I, Tonya	Neon	$221,082	+43%	49	$4,512	$2,572,435	25
-	(-)	Three Billboards Outside Eb…	Fox Searchlight	$198,152	-2%	266	$745	$24,362,781	53
-	(-)	Murder on the Orient Express	20th Century Fox	$196,704	+12%	391	$503	$100,816,328	53
-	(-)	The Post	20th Century Fox	$187,108	n/c	9	$20,790	$1,947,229	11

If Jumanji won by 2m, doesn't that mean it takes the 4 day weekend?

[TwoMisfits]

2 minutes ago, a2knet said:

btw, the current multiplier of SW8 is 2.42x (531.5/220.0) and will at least do 2.8x+ (616+) for those who were comparing the 2nd weekend drop to BVS which finished at 1.99x.

Holidays are very different than spring...this multiplier is lousy...

 

This is the BvS multiplier of Xmas til we see another match it (or go under it)...

Edited January 3, 2018 by TwoMisfits

[hw64]

1 minute ago, TwoMisfits said:

If Jumanji won by 2m, doesn't that mean it takes the 4 day weekend?

It lost the 3-day by $2.47m, so it lost the 4-day by about $0.5m. It was very close.

[a2k]

1 minute ago, TwoMisfits said:

If Jumanji won by 2m, doesn't that mean it takes the 4 day weekend?

Lost by a tiny margin 

STAR WARS: THE LAST JEDI $52.52M 3-Day Weekend $66.81M 4-Day Weekend

JUMANJI: WELCOME TO THE JUNGLE $50.05M 3-Day Weekend $66.27M 4-Day Weekend

https://twitter.com/boxoffice

[a2k]

1 minute ago, TwoMisfits said:

Holidays are very different than spring...this multiplier is lousy...

 

This is the BvS multiplier of Xmas til we see another 200+ Dec opener match it (or go under it)...

fixed

[TwoMisfits]

2 minutes ago, hw64 said:

It lost the 3-day by $2.47m, so it lost the 4-day by about $0.5m. It was very close.

You're right - I'd like your post if I had any left (man, running out on Tuesdays:)...