New Year's Day Weekend Thread: Late Friday estimates (DHD) - TLJ 19.5M, Jumanji 17.5M, PP3 6.7M, TGS 5.3M

[baumer]

31 minutes ago, redfirebird2008 said:

 

Which is exactly the point he made. Stronger Tuesday hold followed by a harsher Wednesday drop. We shall see how it goes. With less holiday boost, Rogue One dropped 60% Tuesday and 32% Wednesday. Discount Tuesday certainly existed a year ago.

 

 but we have talked about this before. The calendar definitely is favorable for this week. A lot of kids are still at a school where his last year they all went back at this time of year. So the numbers will be better this week then they were last year at the same time.

[tonytr87]

MoviePass literally can't survive for long on their business model. And I don't buy that what they're doing is going to force theaters to change their business model. Why? Because the model doesn't work. It's economically unsustainable. 

[Noctis]

25 minutes ago, La Binoche said:

The b.o. decline for the next Star Wars is going to be massive. 

 

 

You and I disagree on so much but I love how much you loved Jumanji. 

[boomboom234]

32 minutes ago, La Binoche said:

The b.o. decline for the next Star Wars is going to be massive. 

 

 

In 2019 there will be a new king

[TwoMisfits]

18 minutes ago, tonytr87 said:

MoviePass literally can't survive for long on their business model. And I don't buy that what they're doing is going to force theaters to change their business model. Why? Because the model doesn't work. It's economically unsustainable. 

But they already have - would Cinemark have come out with a $9/price (under their evening and even matinee ticket price in most areas) if Moviepass didn't exist?  I don't think Cinemark will be the only chain to try to push out Moviepass in the subscription game...but it's gonna be a big upheaval for 2018 and beyond no matter how it shakes out...  

[redfirebird2008]

28 minutes ago, Christmas baumer said:

 

 but we have talked about this before. The calendar definitely is favorable for this week. A lot of kids are still at a school where his last year they all went back at this time of year. So the numbers will be better this week then they were last year at the same time.

 

Yes, but they're not going to be as good as we thought for TLJ...same thing happened with Christmas Day, Boxing Day, New Year's Day, etc.

[MCKillswitch123]

38 minutes ago, CJohn said:

3rd year in a row where the number of tickets sold increases in Portugal!

 

@MCKillswitch123 2014 was a dark year, but we have recovered in an epic way since then.

Considering that both Fifty Shades movies + the trash Leonel Vieira remakes have made over 1M in the box office, I'd hardly call it a recovery. Maybe a money making one, but not a "no trashy choices" one.

 

However, good for us anyway 

Edited January 2, 2018 by MCKillswitch123

[CJohn]

2 minutes ago, MCKillswitch123 said:

Considering that both Fifty Shades movies + the trash Leonel Vieira remakes have made over 1M in the box office, I'd hardly call it a recovery. Maybe a money making one, but not a "no trashy choices" one.

 

However, good for us anyway 

If 2018 has any chance of keeping up the pace, you better hope the final Fifty Shades makes a bazillion euros to compensate for the lack of a Fast & Furious movie in April. No Pirates in May either, so we will reach the end of the first 6 months probably quite below 2017.

[DAR]

12 minutes ago, boomboom234 said:

In 2019 there will be a new king

Disney will finally have something go its way.

 

I do wonder how many under predictions of Episode IX will occur this time.

[MrGlass2]

2 minutes ago, DAR said:

Disney will finally have something go its way.

 

I do wonder how many under predictions of Episode IX will occur this time.

Solo is already getting under-predicted.

[tonytr87]

15 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

But they already have - would Cinemark have come out with a $9/price (under their evening and even matinee ticket price in most areas) if Moviepass didn't exist?  I don't think Cinemark will be the only chain to try to push out Moviepass in the subscription game...but it's gonna be a big upheaval for 2018 and beyond no matter how it shakes out...  

 

That doesn't count. It's one movie a month and a discount on concessions. Not the same thing at all. 

[junkshop36]

Schools are still out where I live. Don’t know how wide it is but in the general area where I live schools don’t go back until next Monday. 

 

Went to an 11:50am showing of TLJ and there were a few kids there as well as teens. Should at least help the numbers a little bit this week. 

[Brainbug]

Pls make the under 500M or even under 400M predictions for Episode IX! Pls, ill collect them so they are extra hilarious in 2 years.

[Ms Lady Hawk]

Okay, looking at MT %, I am as interested in the Tuesday number as I was in the weekend numbers. Jumanji has kicked SW’s ass on MT today. I am interested to see what this means. Wish there were a way to will TLJ to 660. If it gets there, then it would have done what it was expected to do, no? 700 was always a realistic hope after the OW, but one year ago, I think everyone would have been happy with passing Titanic and having a 3 multiplier. I am getting nervous now.

[TwoMisfits]

1 minute ago, tonytr87 said:

 

That doesn't count. It's one movie a month and a discount on concessions. Not the same thing at all. 

But it's a Friday night movie now priced under $9...when it usually sells for $14.50/ticket at my theater...

It's a Saturday matinee movie now priced under $9...when it usually sells for $11.50/ticket at my theater...

And my area is not "peak price" area - I see $22/ticket from some of you city goers and I choke:)...

 

And remember, all additional tickets you buy are also $8.99, and these tickets allow pre-booking without a Fandango/other fee (saving another $1.50+ to the usual prebuyer)...so you have reduced the price of Cinemark theaters to $8.99/ticket nationwide for any movie and any showing...how's that gonna not be an effect on the other chains?  I mean, we know that discount Tuesday pretty much forced the hand on all chains to adopt a discount day...you don't think Moviepass and now Cinemark aren't gonna force some hands...Moviepass is the obvious price forcer, but anyone used to Cinemark is now gonna be price conscious at a $9 point...

[MCKillswitch123]

11 minutes ago, CJohn said:

If 2018 has any chance of keeping up the pace, you better hope the final Fifty Shades makes a bazillion euros to compensate for the lack of a Fast & Furious movie in April. No Pirates in May either, so we will reach the end of the first 6 months probably quite below 2017.

.....I'd take something stupid like Insidious or Peter Rabbit being a Furious 7-sized hit over Fifty Shades repeating business (Like that's ever gonna happen.....)

 

Also, do you think Black Panther could pull very strong numbers here in PT? It's more likely than not that it does at least 1M, and the country is a whole lot less racist than many other OS countries (hell, worshipping African and black culture is hotter here than ever before, with that stupid kizomba craze and the rise of Angolan economy and everything).

[tonytr87]

1 minute ago, TwoMisfits said:

But it's a Friday night movie now priced under $9...when it usually sells for $14.50/ticket at my theater...

It's a Saturday matinee movie now priced under $9...when it usually sells for $11.50/ticket at my theater...

And my area is not "peak price" area - I see $22/ticket from some of you city goers and I choke:)...

 

And remember, all additional tickets you buy are also $8.99, and these tickets allow pre-booking without a Fandango/other fee (saving another $1.50+ to the usual prebuyer)...so you have reduced the price of Cinemark theaters to $8.99/ticket nationwide for any movie and any showing...how's that gonna not be an effect on the other chains?  I mean, we know that discount Tuesday pretty much forced the hand on all chains to adopt a discount day...you don't think Moviepass and now Cinemark aren't gonna force some hands...Moviepass is the obvious price forcer, but anyone used to Cinemark is now gonna be price conscious at a $9 point...

 

They don't have to do anything. MoviePass as we know it will be gone this time next year and Cinemark will have phased out this membership program. 

[hw64]

5 minutes ago, Ms Lady Hawk said:

Okay, looking at MT %, I am as interested in the Tuesday number as I was in the weekend numbers. Jumanji has kicked SW’s ass on MT today. I am interested to see what this means. Wish there were a way to will TLJ to 660. If it gets there, then it would have done what it was expected to do, no? 700 was always a realistic hope after the OW, but one year ago, I think everyone would have been happy with passing Titanic and having a 3 multiplier. I am getting nervous now.

You realize what it needs to do to pass Titanic, right?

 

Outpace Rogue One by 40.8% every single day for the rest of its run off of a weekend that outpaced Rogue One by less than 2%?

Edited January 2, 2018 by hw64

[CJohn]

1 minute ago, MCKillswitch123 said:

.....I'd take something stupid like Insidious or Peter Rabbit being a Furious 7-sized hit over Fifty Shades repeating business (Like that's ever gonna happen.....)

 

Also, do you think Black Panther could pull very strong numbers here in PT? It's more likely than not that it does at least 1M, and the country is a whole lot less racist than many other OS countries (hell, worshipping African and black culture is hotter here than ever before, with that stupid kizomba craze and the rise of Angolan economy and everything).

Black Panther will do similar numbers to GotG2, Wonder Woman and Doctor Strange, IMO. I don't think it will go as high as SMH, Ragnarok or JL. Opening after the sure to be record breaking first week of Fifty Shades 2 won't help.

 

Peter Rabbit is the only kids movie opening over the Easter vacations so your wish might come close to reality

[BXT]

Moviepass business model is unrealistic if they only have a million or two members who are all regular moviegoers but what if they get 50-60 million subscribers most of whom aren't regular movie goers. Suddenly they are generating $6 billion or more (if they hike the price) in revenues every year and thousands of big corporations are interested in their big data.