New Year's Day Weekend Thread: Late Friday estimates (DHD) - TLJ 19.5M, Jumanji 17.5M, PP3 6.7M, TGS 5.3M

[filmlover]

Everything is selling out around me throughout the day, drops might be minimal today. Guessing tomorrow is when we'll see everything return to normal.

[a2k]

1 minute ago, filmlover said:

Everything is selling out around me throughout the day, drops might be minimal today. Guessing tomorrow is when we'll see everything return to normal.

was seeing that in 2006 most movies managed around 50% drop followed by 30%+ wed drops.

won't be surprised if it's sort of reversed this year with tue drops being 30-40% and wed drops 40-50%.

30-40% drop would give TLJ 8.6-10 and Jumanji 9.7-11.4

[filmlover]

1 minute ago, a2knet said:

was seeing that in 2006 most movies managed around 50% drop followed by 30%+ wed drops.

won't be surprised if it's sort of reversed this year with tue drops being 30-40% and wed drops 40-50%.

30-40% drop would give TLJ 8.6-10 and Jumanji 9.7-11.4

Discount Tuesday didn't exist in 2006/2007.

[Ms Lady Hawk]

4 minutes ago, a2knet said:

was seeing that in 2006 most movies managed around 50% drop followed by 30%+ wed drops.

won't be surprised if it's sort of reversed this year with tue drops being 30-40% and wed drops 40-50%.

30-40% drop would give TLJ 8.6-10 and Jumanji 9.7-11.4

I hope you’re right about SW that it drops minimally. Just took a look at Movietickets and it is down ~9% to Jumanji. Yesterday, when I checked SW was up ~3%. I don’t know if there is a direct correlation between the percentage and actual numbers passed a saturated day/weekend. I just want SW to get to 660 million and have that 3 multiplier. 

[redfirebird2008]

4 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Discount Tuesday didn't exist in 2006/2007.

 

Which is exactly the point he made. Stronger Tuesday hold followed by a harsher Wednesday drop. We shall see how it goes. With less holiday boost, Rogue One dropped 60% Tuesday and 32% Wednesday. Discount Tuesday certainly existed a year ago.

[narniadis]

5 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Discount Tuesday didn't exist in 2006/2007.

Back when a film could be static within 10% all week long lol. 

[a2k]

11 minutes ago, a2knet said:

was seeing that in 2006 most movies managed around 50% drop followed by 30%+ wed drops.

won't be surprised if it's sort of reversed this year with tue drops being 30-40% and wed drops 40-50%.

30-40% drop would give TLJ 8.6-10 and Jumanji 9.7-11.4

 

9 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Discount Tuesday didn't exist in 2006/2007.

yeah, that's why reversing the trend

[tonytr87]

19 minutes ago, EmpireCity said:

 

Theaters are already highly annoyed with MoviePass and many are moving to have their own subscription service.  

 

MoviePass also isn't financially sustainable and it will sooner than later run into problems with the subscription price after they have burned through all of their cash.  Right now it is being used as more of a research and data tracking component and once they have enough data I wouldn't look for it to last or to be considerably different than it is now.  

 

Yup. I'm a subscriber and I love it but there's no way it lasts.  

[Mojoguy]

STAR WARS held off JUMANJI $66.8M v $66.2M over the 4-day holiday, however next weekend will likely end THE LAST JEDI's reign.

Jumani can take first place next weekend over TLJ, which would be a huge upset!

Edited January 2, 2018 by Mojoguy

[Lancelot Gold]

My Regal has discount Monday through Thursdays. I don't go still cause the sound sucks. They are in need of a serious upgrade. 

[George Parr]

1 minute ago, Mojoguy said:

Jumani can take first place next weekend, which would be a huge upset!

Nah, not really.

 

TFA barely held on over The Revenant on its 4th weekend, then fell behind it and new opener Ride Along 2 on its 5th weekend.

Rogue One won 49-42 over Sing on its 3rd weekend, finished a tad behind Hidden Figures and a tiny bit more ahead of Sing on its 4th weekend, before being overtaken by Sing and La La Land in its 5th weekend. So both movies were overtaken by movies that had started behind them.

 

So basically TFA went 1-1-1-1-3, Rogue One 1-1-1-2-5, TLJ will be similar.

[Mojoguy]

Nah, not really.

Yes, really. People were saying Jumanji would flop before that movie was released.

[TwoMisfits]

32 minutes ago, EmpireCity said:

 

Theaters are already highly annoyed with MoviePass and many are moving to have their own subscription service.  

 

MoviePass also isn't financially sustainable and it will sooner than later run into problems with the subscription price after they have burned through all of their cash.  Right now it is being used as more of a research and data tracking component and once they have enough data I wouldn't look for it to last or to be considerably different than it is now.  

See, who knows what's ultimately sustainable?  I mean Blockbuster was charging $5/night for videos when Netflix and Redbox both popped up and killed it.  Netflix proved it could ship you unlimited videos for $8/month while Redbox could give you $1/day videos...and Blockbuster got destroyed fast (even when it belatedly dropped its own costs)...

 

Netflix moved off the mailed video to digital as the sustainable model, so I don't doubt the model will change as Netflix changed quickly to stay on top (although Redbox has kept the under $2/night model long term, so that price did become a sustaining price in its model).

 

We are in that same period that Blockbuster was 2 decades ago, and it seems like it will be "change or die."  Cinemark has made a tentative step to change - we'll see how and when others choose to follow and what changes Moviepass might make as it (tries to) move from "early adopter" stage to "long term" stage like Netflix did...since it has the old Netflix guy on top, he's used to navigating that kinda transformational step...

 

PS - And for this summer, Moviepass doesn't need to be long term sustainable to get The Incredibles 2 a huge number for a family film...it just needs to last 2 months or so:)...

[Rumpot]

32 minutes ago, EmpireCity said:

 

Theaters are already highly annoyed with MoviePass and many are moving to have their own subscription service.  

 

MoviePass also isn't financially sustainable and it will sooner than later run into problems with the subscription price after they have burned through all of their cash.  Right now it is being used as more of a research and data tracking component and once they have enough data I wouldn't look for it to last or to be considerably different than it is now.  

Moviepass to theaters isn't like Netflix to blockbuster at all.  It WOULD be like if Netflix just gave you a debit card to pay for all your rentals at blockbuster each month.   Moviepass has no integration with theaters that matter and no partnerships with any studios. In contrast Netflix owned their platform and licensed the content officially.  Moviepass is running a stock pump and dump scheme like many others. 

 

They supposedly gather data but all they ever sent me was a survey monkey or two with a very basic question like "are you male or female?" There is no way this data will ever have value beyond pennies to studios or AMC/Regal/Cinemark would be raking it in off their loyalty card holder data against which moviepass really pales.

 

I'm not at all surprised nor do I think it means anything when a company gets users fast by handing them money.  Their user growth seems irrelevant to me as each user is more loss.

 

If someone offered a debit card where they pay for purchases 10x more than your cost it will always work.  Why not $10/month to pay for all my gas fillups or $10/month for all my groceries, etc.  Thatd grow users pretty darn fast too

[La Binoche]

The b.o. decline for the next Star Wars is going to be massive. 

 

 

[Rumpot]

9 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

See, who knows what's ultimately sustainable?  I mean Blockbuster was charging $5/night for videos when Netflix and Redbox both popped up and killed it.  Netflix proved it could ship you unlimited videos for $8/month while Redbox could give you $1/day videos...and Blockbuster got destroyed fast (even when it belatedly dropped its own costs)...

 

Netflix moved off the mailed video to digital as the sustainable model, so I don't doubt the model will change as Netflix changed quickly to stay on top (although Redbox has kept the under $2/night model long term, so that price did become a sustaining price in its model).

 

We are in that same period that Blockbuster was 2 decades ago, and it seems like it will be "change or die."  Cinemark has made a tentative step to change - we'll see how and when others choose to follow and what changes Moviepass might make as it (tries to) move from "early adopter" stage to "long term" stage like Netflix did...since it has the old Netflix guy on top, he's used to navigating that kinda transformational step...

 

PS - And for this summer, Moviepass doesn't need to be long term sustainable to get The Incredibles 2 a huge number for a family film...it just needs to last 2 months or so:)...

Meant to reply to your post above.  I DO think frequent theater patrons win big here - it's free money.  And I think they'll last at least up to summer next year.  Their stock however, probably in the gutter as they keep selling it to raise money that they may as well just hand over to theaters directly.

[CJohn]

3rd year in a row where the number of tickets sold increases in Portugal!

 

@MCKillswitch123 2014 was a dark year, but we have recovered in an epic way since then.

[TwoMisfits]

1 minute ago, Rumpot said:

Moviepass to theaters isn't like Netflix to blockbuster at all.  It WOULD be like if Netflix just gave you a debit card to pay for all your rentals at blockbuster each month.   Moviepass has no integration with theaters that matter and no partnerships with any studios. In contrast Netflix owned their platform and licensed the content officially.  Moviepass is running a stock pump and dump scheme like many others. 

 

They supposedly gather data but all they ever sent me was a survey monkey or two with a very basic question like "are you male or female?" There is no way this data will ever have value beyond pennies to studios or AMC/Regal/Cinemark would be raking it in off their loyalty card holder data against which moviepass really pales.

 

I'm not at all surprised nor do I think it means anything when a company gets users fast by handing them money.  Their user growth seems irrelevant to me as each user is more loss.

 

If someone offered a debit card where they pay for purchases 10x more than your cost it will always work.  Why not $10/month to pay for all my gas fillups or $10/month for all my groceries, etc.  Thatd grow users pretty darn fast too

But they have a long term effect - you now have (probably at this point) 2 million movie goers used to $2-3/ticket (if they watch 3-4 movies/month - let's forget all the power users, b/c they just consider it "free")...getting them to pay $13+ for a ticket will now be an impossible task, whether or not Moviepass stays in business...so you will have the whole concept of pricing now have to "change or die" b/c the outside party has walked in and pushed that price change...

 

I mean Cinemark has adopted $8.99/nationwide as their price...that's the 1st step...and I don't think people jumped on that one, so their price has now become "too high" for the Moviepass crowd...that should be a sign to the industry that they are gonna have to adapt to something and fast...they can't count on Moviepass going under, b/c customer mindsets have already changed...

 

Back in the day, it didn't matter if Netflix or Redbox had made it or gone under b/c folks realized they could have movies at $1/night...and they were happy...no way would they ever go back to $5/night...and 20 years later, they STILL haven't...

[the beast]

Jumanji up to $360m+ worldwide through monday

[Rumpot]

2 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

But they have a long term effect - you now have (probably at this point) 2 million movie goers used to $2-3/ticket (if they watch 3-4 movies/month - let's forget all the power users, b/c they just consider it "free")...getting them to pay $13+ for a ticket will now be an impossible task, whether or not Moviepass stays in business...so you will have the whole concept of pricing now have to "change or die" b/c the outside party has walked in and pushed that price change...

 

I mean Cinemark has adopted $8.99/nationwide as their price...that's the 1st step...and I don't think people jumped on that one, so their price has now become "too high" for the Moviepass crowd...that should be a sign to the industry that they are gonna have to adapt to something and fast...they can't count on Moviepass going under, b/c customer mindsets have already changed...

 

Back in the day, it didn't matter if Netflix or Redbox had made it or gone under b/c folks realized they could have movies at $1/night...and they were happy...no way would they ever go back to $5/night...and 20 years later, they STILL haven't...

Change or die is different here.  Moviepass can't "kill" theaters or they have killed themselves unlike Netflix/blockbuster.  Moviepass has a parasite/host relationship.....

 

But yeah, they can do damage for sure.