New Year's Day Weekend Thread: Late Friday estimates (DHD) - TLJ 19.5M, Jumanji 17.5M, PP3 6.7M, TGS 5.3M

[jb007]

17 minutes ago, straggler said:

I have a theory why TLJ is disappointing. It is because TFA was not that good a film, and that once you take away Hans Solo and the nostalgia it did not leave much to work with. Jedi Mary Sue. Emo Ren. Snork or something. There, I said it.

 

TLJ had a laughable $220M OW. If it was any other major sequel, it would have done a fantastic $73M OW like Hobbit 2. TLJ was severely affected by TFA WOM. 

 

You are onto something. But you really have to go 40 years back. It is A New Hope's mediocre WOM affecting TLJ. If ANH were any good, Star Wars would have been a very successful franchise. 

 

Anyway, I would expect IW, JW2 to blow past TLJ's "disappointing" gross at the domestic box office.

Edited December 31, 2017 by jb007

[straggler]

1 minute ago, jb007 said:

 

TLJ had a laughable $220M OW. If it was any other major sequel, it would have done s fantastic $73M OW like Hobbit2. TLJ was severely affected by TFA WOM. 

 

You are onto something. But you really have to go 40 years back. It is A New Hope's mediocre WOM affecting TLJ. If ANH were any good, Star Wars would have been a very successful franchise. 

 

Anyway, I would be expect IW, JW2 to blow past TLJ at the domestic box office.

I like your theory, especially considering that TFA essentially remade New Hope root and branch. 

[jb007]

Just now, straggler said:

I like your theory, especially considering that TFA essentially remade New Hope root and branch. 

[jb007]

The posts here deriding TLJ's run by the usual suspects are truly for the ages. The lack of historical perspective and basic understanding of box office grosses is astounding. 

[baumer]

5 hours ago, EmpireCity said:

The two things most hurting The Last Jedi are running time and a certified $300m+ breakout of another shorter crowd pleasing family choice.  It was evident on Christmas Day and is now evident this weekend.  Jumanji has broken through to mini-phenomenon level and is simply sucking up all the late breaking family business on the Holiday and the weekend.  

 

 

 

If Star Wars was a better film then it wouldn't have any competition, it IS the competition.  Star Wars alienated a lot of people.  Not the majority, but more than usual.  And the run time and Jumanji and any other excuse is just a bunch of hooey.  This iteration of SW is just not a version that the majority seems to enjoy.

[Mojoguy]

People are happy TFA was a rehash of ANH, but those same people were pissed TLJ wasn't a rehash of ESB.

Edited December 31, 2017 by Mojoguy

[baumer]

5 hours ago, EmpireCity said:

If anyone has any question of how even a 15 minute longer running time hurts, if you have 5 shows per day on a screen, that means you have to account for an extra 1 hour and 15 minutes during the day.  

 

Rogue One and The Force Awakens were able to have better start times for their early and late shows.  The Last Jedi is having to start earlier and later to keep the same amount of sessions.  

 

It has a real effect on a film.  How much is not entirely known, but if your early start time is 9:15am instead of 10:00am and your late show has to start at 11:15pm and ends at 2:00am instead of 10:30pm and ending at 1:15am, it causes people to not attend those shows.  

 

Titanic and Avatar didn't seem to have any problems with run time.

[TigerPaw]

1 hour ago, mikee11 said:

Jumanji should make more money but it has too many unfair disatvantages, like theater count or premium halls

Just shows how impressive it will be if Jumanji takes the win on Saturday, with so many disadvantages.

In many Asian markets, where nostagia and Disney's monopoly isn't that strong, Jumanji looks to beat TLJ's totals. (Not just Jumanji's 1st weekend beating TLJ's 2nd weekend).

Note that TLJ's IMAX and premium formats are still huge advantages. For example, in Hong Kong, Jumanji needs around 30-50% more attendance to beat TLJ.

[baumer]

3 hours ago, straggler said:

I have a theory why TLJ is disappointing. It is because TFA was not that good a film, and that once you take away Hans Solo and the nostalgia it did not leave much to work with. Jedi Mary Sue. Emo Ren. Snork or something. There, I said it.

 

If that was the case then it would not have opened to 220 million.  

[Mojoguy]

Theaters aren't stupid, if they see how big Jumanji is doing they can take some screens away from some flop like Downsizing and Father Figures and give them to Jumanji instead.

[EmpireCity]

5 minutes ago, Christmas baumer said:

 

If Star Wars was a better film then it wouldn't have any competition, it IS the competition.  Star Wars alienated a lot of people.  Not the majority, but more than usual.  And the run time and Jumanji and any other excuse is just a bunch of hooey.  This iteration of SW is just not a version that the majority seems to enjoy.

That, as usual, is ridiculous.  To believe that premise you would have to believe that even if The Godfather came out at the same time as a "better" Star Wars film that it wouldn't be competition.  

 

 

[hw64]

4 minutes ago, Mojoguy said:

Theaters aren't stupid, if they see how big Jumanji is doing they can take some screens away from some flop like Downsizing and Father Figures and give them to Jumanji instead.

Can't give Jumanji any of the biggest screens though. Thanks Disney!

[JonathanLB]

8 minutes ago, Christmas baumer said:

 

If Star Wars was a better film then it wouldn't have any competition, it IS the competition.  Star Wars alienated a lot of people.  Not the majority, but more than usual.  And the run time and Jumanji and any other excuse is just a bunch of hooey.  This iteration of SW is just not a version that the majority seems to enjoy.

The majority don’t enjoy it?! So 51% of people don’t even like it? That’s hooey.

 

I don’t know what kind of parent brings their kid to a 2.5 hour long serious movie. I applaud Disney for making the movie they wanted to make but yeah TLJ isn’t a kid friendly movie by any means. TFA felt more so even if it didn’t feel

that kid friendly either, at least it was shorter.

[EmpireCity]

2 minutes ago, Mojoguy said:

Theaters aren't stupid, if they see how big Jumanji is doing they can take some screens away from some flop like Downsizing and Father Figures and give them to Jumanji instead.

 

Not unless they negotiated that split with the studio.  They have to play Downsizing and Father Figures at this point on a full schedule unless approved by Paramount or Warner Bros.  They can't take away shows from those without risk of endangering their agreement.  

 

Sometimes theaters break that agreement and do it in hopes they don't get caught, but if they are going to take a show away it would be from Star Wars most likely at this moment unless they have an older film they can do it with.  

[baumer]

3 hours ago, EmpireCity said:

That, as usual, is ridiculous.  To believe that premise you would have to believe that even if The Godfather came out at the same time as a "better" Star Wars film that it wouldn't be competition.  

 

 

 

Far from ridiculous.  This film has divided so many people.  There are many who love it and many who hate it and some who are kind of ambivalent to it.  The mutliplier and weak days like Christmas Day are proof in the pudding.  Call my opinions ridiculous is pretty narrow minded on your part.  I'm not sure how you can look at the data and not see it.  

[EmpireCity]

10 minutes ago, Christmas baumer said:

 

Titanic and Avatar didn't seem to have any problems with run time.

Apples and Oranges and you know that.  

 

Honestly, you are hard to talk to about any of this rationally because you went from hating The Last Jedi, to immediately really liking it and thinking it was great and then right back to freaking out and making ridiculous hashtags and writing a diatribe against it.  

 

The emotional swings you are having on the film are bizarre.  

[TwoMisfits]

1 minute ago, JonathanLB said:

The majority don’t enjoy it?! So 51% of people don’t even like it? That’s hooey.

 

I don’t know what kind of parent brings their kid to a 2.5 hour long serious movie. I applaud Disney for making the movie they wanted to make but yeah TLJ isn’t a kid friendly movie by any means. TFA felt more so even if it didn’t feel

that kid friendly either, at least it was shorter.

I don't buy run time, either...Wonder Woman was 2 hours and 21 minutes...and had many serious-in-tone parts (only lightened with a little comedy, ala TLJ)...it's only 11 minutes shorter than TLJ's run time...

 

How a movie plays and engages you in its run time matters, not just what it is...some 90 minute movies feel like 2.5 hours...some 2.5 hour movies feel like 90 minutes...

 

I remember that the 1st time I watched Titanic, it didn't feel half its length, and I wanted more...

 

 

[EmpireCity]

1 minute ago, Christmas baumer said:

 

Far from ridiculous.  This film has divided so many people.  There are many who love it and many who hate it and some who are kind of ambivalent to it.  The mutliplier and weak days like Christmas Day are proof in the pudding.  Call my opinions ridiculous is pretty narrow minded on your part.  I'm not sure how you can look at the data and not see it.  

 

You mean the weak Christmas Day where it and Jumanji had a nearly identical flip in estimates and then the next day Jumanji was down and The Last Jedi was back up?  

 

Again, show me your WOM data.  Not what you and your buddies think, but show me actual data.  

[baumer]

2 hours ago, EmpireCity said:

Apples and Oranges and you know that.  

 

Honestly, you are hard to talk to about any of this rationally because you went from hating The Last Jedi, to immediately really liking it and thinking it was great and then right back to freaking out and making ridiculous hashtags and writing a diatribe against it.  

 

The emotional swings you are having on the film are bizarre.  

 

I frankly don't care about your opinion of me.  You are so blinded by all of this that it amazes me.  The writing is on the wall, the numbers speak for themselves.  The fact that you can't admit it is really baffling.

 

And I saw it three times to see how I felt about it.  At least I gave it three chances to be the film I hoped it was.  

[That One Girl]