WrathOfHan Posted May 19, 2018 Share Posted May 19, 2018 Looking at Klansman's Meta score of 75, it would be the lowest rated BP winner since Crash (69). Prior to that, other mid-70s and lower scorers since the nineties are A Beautiful Mind (72), Gladiator (67), Titanic (75), Braveheart (68), and Dances with Wolves (72). Nowadays, you basically need a lot of acclaim from critics to win. Klansman is certainly something that could get people talking, but with the reviews and Lee apparently not being competitive enough to get into director (don't be wrong on this Coolio), it'll be hard for a win 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLAM! Posted May 20, 2018 Share Posted May 20, 2018 1 hour ago, WrathOfHan said: Looking at Klansman's Meta score of 75, it would be the lowest rated BP winner since Crash (69). Prior to that, other mid-70s and lower scorers since the nineties are A Beautiful Mind (72), Gladiator (67), Titanic (75), Braveheart (68), and Dances with Wolves (72). Nowadays, you basically need a lot of acclaim from critics to win. Klansman is certainly something that could get people talking, but with the reviews and Lee apparently not being competitive enough to get into director (don't be wrong on this Coolio), it'll be hard for a win Are you sure there isn't any more time for the Metacritic score to rise higher than that? I'm sure that, if there's more critics out there, they can cause an increase. Even if it wouldn't rise much, every bit would help, right? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PenguinHyphy Posted May 20, 2018 Share Posted May 20, 2018 (edited) On 5/19/2018 at 7:58 PM, WrathOfHan said: Looking at Klansman's Meta score of 75, it would be the lowest rated BP winner since Crash (69). Prior to that, other mid-70s and lower scorers since the nineties are A Beautiful Mind (72), Gladiator (67), Titanic (75), Braveheart (68), and Dances with Wolves (72). Nowadays, you basically need a lot of acclaim from critics to win. Klansman is certainly something that could get people talking, but with the reviews and Lee apparently not being competitive enough to get into director (don't be wrong on this Coolio), it'll be hard for a win It is probably going to receive at least fifty reviews, so the score being 75 is not all that important right now. Brooklyn's Metacritic score right after Sundance was at 78 or something around BlacKkKlansman's Metacritic score. The movie played really well throughout the year up to its release in November and began to become more acclaimed when more reviews came in. The Metacritic score might be much better upon its release. It has happened plenty of times before. There are so many movies yet to premiere/be released to say anything about winning Best Picture, though. Edited May 21, 2018 by PenguinHyphy 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PenguinHyphy Posted May 20, 2018 Share Posted May 20, 2018 It might happen, but I am still not convinced that Black Panther is going to be a Best Picture nominee. Too many influential people in the industry believe that superhero movies are everything that is wrong with American cinema. I can see Ryan Coogler receiving a DGA nomination, though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
filmlover Posted May 20, 2018 Share Posted May 20, 2018 Logan getting an Adapted Screenplay nom last year showed that the Academy isn't completely against giving comic book movies major recognition when they deserve it. Then again, that category being beyond dead was probably the most likely reason it got in. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WrathOfHan Posted May 20, 2018 Share Posted May 20, 2018 32 minutes ago, filmlover said: Logan getting an Adapted Screenplay nom last year showed that the Academy isn't completely against giving comic book movies major recognition when they deserve it. Then again, that category being beyond dead was probably the most likely reason it got in. Right. Black Panther depends on how much the tech branches support it because it’s not getting a Screenplay nomination and Coogler is pretty unlikely in Director Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jake Gittes Posted May 20, 2018 Share Posted May 20, 2018 15 hours ago, WrathOfHan said: Looking at Klansman's Meta score of 75, it would be the lowest rated BP winner since Crash (69). Prior to that, other mid-70s and lower scorers since the nineties are A Beautiful Mind (72), Gladiator (67), Titanic (75), Braveheart (68), and Dances with Wolves (72). Nowadays, you basically need a lot of acclaim from critics to win. Klansman is certainly something that could get people talking, but with the reviews and Lee apparently not being competitive enough to get into director (don't be wrong on this Coolio), it'll be hard for a win Inglourious Basterds was barely fresh on RT out of Cannes and then became one of the most celebrated movies of the year. Festival reactions and subsequent overall critical reception can be pretty different. 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
That One Girl Posted May 20, 2018 Share Posted May 20, 2018 3 minutes ago, Jake Gittes said: Inglourious Basterds was barely fresh on RT out of Cannes and then became one of the most celebrated movies of the year. Festival reactions and subsequent overall critical reception can be pretty different. If RT watches were a thing back then everyone would be shitting their pants over Inglourious Basterds. Its first 6 reviews would've put it at a 17% and a 4/10 average rating. All of its Cannes reviews gave it a 54% and 5.8/10 average. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolioD1 Posted May 20, 2018 Share Posted May 20, 2018 6 minutes ago, Jake Gittes said: Inglourious Basterds was barely fresh on RT out of Cannes and then became one of the most celebrated movies of the year. Festival reactions and subsequent overall critical reception can be pretty different. inglourious basterds was recut between cannes and release though. only small edits here and there but that can make or break scenes. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FantasticBeasts Posted May 20, 2018 Share Posted May 20, 2018 Black Panther will get in. It's a completely different era for superheroe films compared to TDK's time. The Academy cannot ignore them forever and BP is the best chance to give a nom given the whole political message and the fact that it actually got acclaim. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
4815162342 Posted May 20, 2018 Share Posted May 20, 2018 2 hours ago, Jake Gittes said: Inglourious Basterds was barely fresh on RT out of Cannes and then became one of the most celebrated movies of the year. Festival reactions and subsequent overall critical reception can be pretty different. The Cannes cut was substantially different though. Didn't QT afterwards cut an entire segment of the film that was about Shosanna getting to Paris and gaining control over the theater? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolioD1 Posted May 20, 2018 Share Posted May 20, 2018 37 minutes ago, 4815162342 said: The Cannes cut was substantially different though. Didn't QT afterwards cut an entire segment of the film that was about Shosanna getting to Paris and gaining control over the theater? no actually the theatrical cut is a minute longer w/ one extra scene. the scene just before the tavern scene where they're getting ready to go in. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
4815162342 Posted May 20, 2018 Share Posted May 20, 2018 1 hour ago, CoolioD1 said: no actually the theatrical cut is a minute longer w/ one extra scene. the scene just before the tavern scene where they're getting ready to go in. Maybe it was an earlier pre-Cannes cut then, because I remember Maggie Cheung was in the film at some point as the original theater owner and filmed scenes. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jake Gittes Posted May 20, 2018 Share Posted May 20, 2018 Even beyond the additional editing I think Basterds initially did throw people off with... all the things it was doing. A little sinking in did it good. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolioD1 Posted May 20, 2018 Share Posted May 20, 2018 btw thinking about it i might've convinced myself that i'm wrong about spike lee won't get a best director nomination. people really seem to want it for him and the fact that he's been so critical of the oscars in the past but he was saying nice things about their trying to change in cannes interviews tells me he wants it too and is willing to campaign for that shit. it probably helps that the movie is for sure the most direct shot at the trump administration in cinema so far right down to casting. although i guess the dick cheney movie could be that too. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stripe Posted May 29, 2018 Share Posted May 29, 2018 Right now I have not seen barely any hype for anyhing besides Black Panther. My first guesses for this year. I am really confident with these three: First Man. Chazelle is on a roll... Same with Gosling. Also, biopic. Also, History! Also, possibly nommed in many categories. And released in mid October, usually when awards talk begins. Widows. Huge cast. Theme is promising. And it comes from Steve McQueen. Mid November release schedule. Nice for WOM to increase. If Beale Street Could Talk. Resonating theme. Solid source in which is based. Director well respected. Also strong feelings about these On the Basis of Sex. Timely theme. Biopic. Women in front and behind it. Black Panther. Cultural phenomenon. Theme. Praised. Backseat. Biopic. Recognozible director. Strong cast. A star is born. AMPAS really like this kind of film. There's prebuzz surrounding the movie. And then Mary Poppins Return Beautiful Boy Favourite Mary, Queen of Scots Sisters Brothers Women of Marwen A quiet place Frontrunner Roma Where You'd go Bernadette 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Panda Posted May 30, 2018 Share Posted May 30, 2018 On 5/17/2018 at 3:15 PM, filmlover said: This feels like a classic example of a post that's bound to age poorly. I could also see the “Coogler not in contention” posts aging as poorly as the “Get Out has no chance at a nom” posts. It’s way to early to tell for sure. I could see the academy going all in on BP, with a BD, screenplay and Supporting Actor to go with it. I could also see it get shut out from all the main cats. Kind of have to see the state of the race come December or so. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Panda Posted May 30, 2018 Share Posted May 30, 2018 On 5/19/2018 at 6:58 PM, WrathOfHan said: Looking at Klansman's Meta score of 75, it would be the lowest rated BP winner since Crash (69). Prior to that, other mid-70s and lower scorers since the nineties are A Beautiful Mind (72), Gladiator (67), Titanic (75), Braveheart (68), and Dances with Wolves (72). Nowadays, you basically need a lot of acclaim from critics to win. Klansman is certainly something that could get people talking, but with the reviews and Lee apparently not being competitive enough to get into director (don't be wrong on this Coolio), it'll be hard for a win Also, with the exception of Beautiful Mind, all of those scores are from historical epics which is an easy genre for the academy to get behind. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Panda Posted May 30, 2018 Share Posted May 30, 2018 These are kind of my predicts right now The Other Side of the Wind, Norway and Roma are all Netflix now so I feel any hope for them is faint. Maybe Mudbound changed things. I think if any Netflix film can make it, Roma will. I also think BlacKkKlansman is much weaker than people are claiming rn. Think Beale Street and Widows will overshadow it. Best Picture Ad Astra Backseat Black Panther First Man Mary, Queen of Scots If Beale Street Could Talk Roma A Star is Born Where’d You Go, Bernadette? Widows Alt: Mary Poppins Returns Best Director Damien Chazelle, Firsf Man Ryan Coogler, Black Panther Alfonso Cuaron, Roma Adam McKay, Backseat Josie Rourke, Mary, Queen of Scots Alt: Barry Jenkins, If Beale Street Could Talk Best Actress Cate Blanchett, Where’d You Go Bernadette? Lady Gaga, A Star is Born Viola Davis, Widows Kiki Layne, If Beale Street Could Talk Saoirse Ronan, Mary, Queen of Scots Alt: Felicity Jones, On the Basis of Sex Best Actor Christian Bale, Backseat Bradley Cooper, A Star is Born Ryan Gosling, First Man Lucas Hedges, Boy Erased John David Washington, BlacKkKlansman Alt: Steve Carell, Beautiful Boy Best Supporting Actor Steve Carell, Backseat Timothee Chalamet, Beautiful Boy Stephan James, If Beale Street Could Talk Michael B. Jordan, Black Panther Daniel Kaluuya, Widows Alt: Sam Rockwell, Backseat Supporting Actress Amy Adams, Backseat Margot Robbie, Mary Queen of Scots Claire Foy, First Man Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk Kristen Wiig, Where’d You Go, Bernadette? Alt: Michelle Yeoh, Crazy Rich Asians Best Original Screenplay Ad Astra Backseat Eighth Grade Roma A Quiet Place Alt: Hereditary Best Adapted Screenplay First Man If Beale Street Could Talk Mary, Queen of Scots Where’d You Go, Bernnadette? Widows Alt: Black Panther Best Cinematography Ad Astra First Man If Beale Street Could Talk Mary, Queen of Scots Roma Alt: Black Panther Editing Backseat Black Panther First Man Roma Mary, Queen of Scots Alt: A Star is Born Costume Design Black Panther First Man Mary Poppins Returns Mary, Queen of Scots The Nutcracker and the Four Realms Alt: Ad Astra HMU Design Backseat Black Panther A Star is Born Alt: The Nutcracker and the Four Realms Production Design Ad Astra Black Panther First Man The Nutcracker and the Four Realms Mary, Queen of Scots Alt: Mary Poppins Returns Sound Editing Ad Astra Avengers: Infinity War Black Panther First Man Mary, Queen of Scots Alt: A Star is Born Sound Mixing Ad Astra Black Panther First Man Mary Poppins Returns A Star is Born Alt: Mary, Queen of Scots Score Black Panther First Man If Beale Street Could Talk The Incredibles 2 Mary, Queen of Scots Alt: Everybody Knows Song Ashes, Deadpool 2 Pray For Me, Black Panther Mary Poppins Returns Mary Poppins Returns A Star is Born Alt: A Star is Born VFX Ad Astra Avengers: Infinity War Black Panther First Man Mary, Queen of Scots Alt: Solo: A Star Wars Story Animated Early Man Isle of Dogs The Incredibles 2 Ralph Breaks the Internet: Wreck-It Ralph 2 Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse Alt: Dr. Seuss’ The Grinch Backseat - 6 Wins, 8 Nominations Mary, Queen of Scots - 5 Wins, 12 Nominations First Man - 2 Wins, 12 Nominations Black Panther - 1 Win, 12 Nominations Ad Astra - 1 Win, 7 Nominations If Beale Street Could Talk - 1 Win, 7 Nominations A Star is Born - 1 Win, 6 Nominations Roma - 6 Nominations Where’d You Go, Bernadette? - 4 Nominations Widows - 4 Nominations Mary Poppins Returns - 1 Win, 3 Nominations Isle of Dogs - 1 Win, 1 Nomination Avengers: Infinity War - 2 Nominations The Nutcracker and the Four Realms - 2 Nominations The Incredibles 2 - 2 Nominations Beautiful Boy - 1 Nomination BlacKkKlansman - 1 nomination Boy Erased - 1 Nomination Early Man - 1 Nomination Eighth Grade - 1 Nomination A Quiet Place - 1 Nomination Deadpool 2 - 1 Nomination Ralph Breaks The Internet: Wreck-It Ralph 2 - 1 Nomination Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse - 1 Nomination Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ethan Hunt Posted May 30, 2018 Share Posted May 30, 2018 11 hours ago, Pandamia! said: I could also see the “Coogler not in contention” posts aging as poorly as the “Get Out has no chance at a nom” posts. It’s way to early to tell for sure. I could see the academy going all in on BP, with a BD, screenplay and Supporting Actor to go with it. I could also see it get shut out from all the main cats. Kind of have to see the state of the race come December or so. There was like only one person on the Get Out isn't a BP contender train last year though Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...