Weekend Thread - Insidious 29.6M, Jumanji 37.2M, TLJ 23.7M, TGS 13.8M, PP3 10.3

[That One Girl]

6 minutes ago, Mockingjay Raphael said:

And weren’t you claiming that Insidious would underperform because you haven’t seen “any marketing”? Good prediction!

 

We’re all wrong at one point in our lives.  For example, you were wrong about calling Jigsaw a flop after OW and it went on to gross 10x its budget.  We all make shitty predictions.

[The Panda]

5 minutes ago, meriodejaneiro said:

Not break even? Do you even know what "break even" means?

Third week? You mean 4th week, right?

 

i'm starting to think that @TheForceuser707 is @robcain anonimus profile to release all his anger freely. 

 

Yeah, let’s not kid ourselves.  You can call TLJ a disappointment, but on a 200m budget it definitely broke even by the end of its OW.  Everything since then has just been profit.

[That One Girl]

3 minutes ago, Mockingjay Raphael said:

Nah, I was just copying Kriss’ list. 

 

?

 

That was the first post in the thread with a list of all the horror films.

[Mockingjay Raphael]

2 minutes ago, That One Guy said:

 

We’re all wrong at one point in our lives.  For example, you were wrong about calling Jigsaw a flop after OW and it went on to gross 10x its budget.  We all make shitty predictions.

And why are you constantly bashing my Jigsaw failure anyway? I can understand this coming from the fans of the franchise like @Blaze Heatnix but you? This seems really random. 

[Mockingjay Raphael]

1 minute ago, That One Guy said:

 

?

 

That was the first post in the thread with a list of all the horror films.

He wrote this list in the old topic, I copy and past because I was too lazy to make a new one. 

Edited January 6, 2018 by Mockingjay Raphael

[George Parr]

I'm not sure if people realize this, but you are arguing with someone who was convinced that TLJ would make more than TFA, with nothing convincing him that something different could happen. From that point of view, the total for TLJ would be a big disappointment. It would also be a rather warped point of view though.

[That One Girl]

Just now, Mockingjay Raphael said:

And why are you constantly bashing my Jigsaw failure anyway? I can understand this coming from the fans of the franchise like @Blaze Heatnix but you? This seems really random. 

 

It’s just hilarious how you presumptuously call something a flop after its OW number after underpredicting it leading up to its release before it goes on to be a solid success and you fail to own up to your wrong prediction.  At least I admit my Insidious prediction was off.

[a2k]

Just now, New Year New Panda said:

Yeah, let’s not kid ourselves.  You can call TLJ a disappointment, but on a 200m budget it definitely broke even by the end of its OW.  Everything since then has just been profit.

It would be profitable even on a 350-400 prod budget. I think Disney got a better than the usual 55% studios get dom.

60% of 630 dom = ~380

33% of 700 os = ~230

So 610 from global theatrical alone. Would cover prod and most of marketing with huge non-theatrical revenue to come. It's other costs (dvd/blu-ray release and marketing, payments to cast crew based on milestones, etc) would be tiny in comparison to it's Home and Television revenue.

[Jandrew]

I mean really, beat a dead horse. I think the “TLJ has failed” hot takes have sunk in by now. We get it. Yall literally have had this argument for 22 days in a row and its a bit embarrassing. 

 

TLJ may not be Force 2.0, but its still making bank on its own. Its January now, find a new hot take, like how Jack Black should get nominations for his teen girl portrayal. 

 

 

Edited January 6, 2018 by Jandrew

[WrathOfHan]

18 minutes ago, New Year New Panda said:

@WrathOfHan

 

Hamilton’s easily the best musical of the 21st century.

[TwoMisfits]

4 minutes ago, That One Guy said:

 

We’re all wrong at one point in our lives.  For example, you were wrong about calling Jigsaw a flop after OW and it went on to gross 10x its budget.  We all make shitty predictions.

A truer statement was never posted to this board:)...

 

I'm still trying to decide which of my pre-year 2017 DOM Baywatch, JL, or The Star predictions was the worst of my predictions...I think dollar wise, it was JL, but I do give myself leeway for trying to predict trailer unseen...I think I was off on Baywatch even having seen the 1st trailer:)...so, I still think that wins (although its overseas recovery mitigates it a little:)...

 

Here's to be a little closer in 2018:)...

[titanic2187]

20 minutes ago, That One Guy said:

I’m so happy Greatest Showman is doing so well

We all know it's getting hard to reverse the course for a movie that opened to a low figure, it's almost impossible to reverse the disappointing opening to an awesome run due to the significant carry over effect in box office market....but somehow TGS managed to do so, with meh RT score...... 

Edited January 6, 2018 by titanic2187

[TwoMisfits]

1 minute ago, a2knet said:

It would be profitable even on a 350-400 prod budget. I think Disney got a better than the usual 55% studios get dom.

60% of 630 dom = ~380

33% of 700 os = ~230

So 610 from global theatrical alone. Would cover prod and most of marketing with huge non-theatrical revenue to come. It's other costs (dvd/blu-ray release and marketing, payments to cast crew based on milestones, etc) would be tiny in comparison to it's Home and Television revenue.

They get 65%...it's one of the reasons I think DOM theaters will be fed up and drop faster than RO:)...

[TwoMisfits]

Just now, titanic2187 said:

We all know it's getting hard to reverse the course for a movie that opened to a low figure, it's almost impossible to reverse the disappointing opening to an awesome run due to the significant carry over effect in box office market....but somehow TGS managed to do so, with meh RT score...... 

The power of holidays + Moviepass...I would love to see "repeat goer with Moviepass" gross:)...

[FantasticBeasts]

9 minutes ago, That One Guy said:

 

We’re all wrong at one point in our lives.  For example, you were wrong about calling Jigsaw a flop after OW and it went on to gross 10x its budget.  We all make shitty predictions.

I remember you saying you were watching Insidious. What did you think?

[MaxAggressor]

https://twitter.com/BoxOffice/status/949660217314340865

 

STAR WARS: THE LAST JEDI $6.584M Friday Estimate $555.547M Domestic Total #StarWars #TheLastJedi #StarWarsTheLastJedi #BoxOffice

[The Panda]

3 minutes ago, a2knet said:

It would be profitable even on a 350-400 prod budget. I think Disney got a better than the usual 55% studios get dom.

60% of 630 dom = ~380

33% of 700 os = ~230

So 610 from global theatrical alone. Would cover prod and most of marketing with huge non-theatrical revenue to come. It's other costs (dvd/blu-ray release and marketing, payments to cast crew based on milestones, etc) would be tiny in comparison to it's Home and Television revenue.

Disney gets 70% of the DOM gross or so, Add that to the WW gross and they’d need at least a 700m budget (maybe more) for TLJ to only break even.

[That One Girl]

1 minute ago, FantasticBeasts said:

I remember you saying you were watching Insidious. What did you think?

 

Planning on seeing it in a few hours

[titanic2187]

Just now, TwoMisfits said:

The power of holidays + Moviepass...I would love to see "repeat goer with Moviepass" gross:)...

I like the idea moviepass because it is the only attempt in film industry now to boost attendance instead of charging the premium price....  

 

But I am deeply worried about their business model, it is just unsound.....

[Mockingjay Raphael]

Fun curiosity: Annabelle: Creation ended in better positions in the end of year charts in the Asian region (and in most of LA as well), than The Last Jedi, same happened with TC2/RO last year. 

 

If it weren’t for the tradicional markets making up the difference, the SW franchise would have the same impact of Stat Trek OS. @James