Weekend Thread | 3-day estimates (per BOM): J 27M, TP 18.6M, TC 13.45M, I:TLK 12.14M, TGS 11.8M, TLJ 11.28M, P2 10.62M, PM 10M

[The Panda]

Oh dear, the audience score debate will never leave us after The Post and TLJ.

Edited January 12, 2018 by New Year New Panda

[MovieMan89]

1 minute ago, WrathOfHan said:

The Derby deadline is in 30 minutes and IDK if I should keep Paddington at 12M or go back to 15M. Gahhhhhhhhhh

12? That's way too low. Even Ferdinand did 13 on a December weekend that is ripe for depressed openings before Xmas. This is a Holiday weekend in January. Paddington should be good for 18 or so, imo. 

[Jonwo]

10 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

Paddington is probably right on track to match the original, which is always where expectations should have been. 100 was a big long shot all along. Would be nice to see it have even better legs than the first though because you're probably a sadist and a serial killer if you see that movie and say something bad about it. 

Had WB got the rights earlier, they probably would have been able to cook up a better campaign. I imagine if they get Paddington 3, they should aim to release it perhaps day and date with the UK or in December.

[WrathOfHan]

I think Oscar expansions and re-expansions are going to have a hard time getting into theaters next weekend. There are three movies releasing in 2,400-3,000 theaters (I still can't believe Entertainment Studios got Hostiles in 3k lmfao), and this weekend is going to have 8 movies over 10M. This is what I think my 12plex's schedule will be next weekend:

 

12 Strong

Den of Thieves

Hostiles

The Post

Jumanji

Paddington

Proud Mary

The Commuter

Insidious

The Greatest Showman

Darkest Hour

Star Wars

Gone: PP3, Molly's Game, Ferdinand/Money

 

If something like The Shape of Water expands, they're going to be left in a tough position on what to get rid of. The last weekend of January will probably be the weekend where nominees expand because it only has Maze Runner releasing and Commuter/Proud Mary/Insidious should be down to 3-4M by then. Plus, Hostiles could be a one week only affair if it ends up like Friend Request.

Edited January 12, 2018 by WrathOfHan

[MovieMan89]

1 minute ago, Jonwo said:

Had WB got the rights earlier, they probably would have been able to cook up a better campaign. I imagine if they get Paddington 3, they should aim to release it perhaps day and date with the UK or in December.

I don't like December for it, it will never be first, second, or probably even third choice for much of anyone in any kind of typical December lineup. MLK weekend is a good spot for it domestically. 3 could definitely benefit from a  longer and more fleshed out marketing campaign as you said. 

[La Binoche]

The RT audience score is probably accurate. The movie is all talk, and that's always going to alienate some people. 

 

This is re: The Post. 

Edited January 12, 2018 by La Binoche

[WrathOfHan]

1 minute ago, La Binoche said:

The RT audience score is probably accurate. The movie is all talk, and that's always going to alienate some people. 

 

This is re: The Post. 

What about that "brief war violence" in the MPAA description?

Edited January 12, 2018 by WrathOfHan

[The Panda]

Oscar expansions will probably wane for a few weeks then pick back up after nominations.  Nominations are revealed fairly late this year, which I think hurts the box office of these movies because they’ll lose screens before noms come.

[MovieMan89]

1 minute ago, WrathOfHan said:

I think Oscar expansions and re-expansions are going to have a hard time getting into theaters next weekend. There are three movies releasing in 2,400-3,000 theaters (I still can't believe Entertainment Studios got Hostiles in 3k lmfao), and this weekend is going to have 8 movies over 10M. This is what I think my 12plex's schedule will be next weekend:

 

12 Strong

Den of Thieves

Hostiles

The Post

Jumanji

Paddington

Proud Mary

The Commuter

Insidious

The Greatest Showman

Darkest Hour

Star Wars

Gone: PP3, Molly's Game, Ferdinand/Money

 

If something like The Shape of Water expands, they're going to be left in a tough position on what to get rid of. The last weekend of January will probably be the weekend where nominees expand because it only has Maze Runner releasing and Commuter/Proud Mary/Insidious should be down to 3-4M by then. Plus, Hostiles could be a one week only affair if it ends up like Friend Request.

PM and Commuter will surely have bad legs and be easy to axe by then. Doubt Hostiles will be pulling much either. And just more reason for theaters to drop The Ass Jedi. 

[WrathOfHan]

Just now, New Year New Panda said:

Oscar expansions will probably wane for a few weeks then pick back up after nominations.  Nominations are revealed fairly late this year, which I think hurts the box office of these movies because they’ll lose screens before noms come.

Oh shit, I thought nominations were on Tuesday  Forget everything I said; they'll be expanding fine at the end of the month  

[Rebeccas]

4 minutes ago, La Binoche said:

The RT audience score is probably accurate. The movie is all talk, and that's always going to alienate some people. 

 

This is re: The Post. 

Also the target audience for that movie (the 65-90 crowd) probably doesn't vote on RT lol

Edited January 12, 2018 by Rebeccas

[filmlover]

Just now, New Year New Panda said:

Oscar expansions will probably wane for a few weeks then pick back up after nominations.  Nominations are revealed fairly late this year, which I think hurts the box office of these movies because they’ll lose screens before noms come.

Oscar nominations are on the 23rd so expect most expansions and re-expansions to occur that weekend, especially with only one release each over the following two weekends (Maze Runner 3 and Winchester).

[WrathOfHan]

1 minute ago, MovieMan89 said:

PM and Commuter will surely have bad legs and be easy to axe by then. Doubt Hostiles will be pulling much either. And just more reason for theaters to drop The Ass Jedi. 

The Commuter could EASILY end up like Walk Among the Tombstones (12.8M opening/67% drop in the second weekend/26.3M Total), especially given it's opening on a 4 day weekend. Proud Mary is likely to mirror When the Bough Breaks (14.2M opening/61.4% drop/29.7M total)

[Jonwo]

4 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

I don't like December for it, it will never be first, second, or probably even third choice for much of anyone in any kind of typical December lineup. MLK weekend is a good spot for it domestically. 3 could definitely benefit from a  longer and more fleshed out marketing campaign as you said. 

It might do well in early November but I incline to agree that MLK weekend 2021 is more likely and considering WB only picked up the movie in November, they did a good job promoting it and I think to match the first's OW is good.

[filmlover]

Are we sure Hostiles is even opening in 1K theaters next weekend, let alone 3K? Cause jesus that will be a miserable PTA.

[DAJK]

1 minute ago, WrathOfHan said:

The Commuter could EASILY end up like Walk Among the Tombstones (12.8M opening/67% drop in the second weekend/26.3M Total), especially given it's opening on a 4 day weekend. Proud Mary is likely to mirror When the Bough Breaks (14.2M opening/61.4% drop/29.7M total)

Hostiles in 3k next weekend if gonna be glorious 

 

If Proud Mary nor Commuter can make it to 30M total, or even o/u that number, Maze Runner has its expected 25/65 run, and Winchester does something like 12/30, Oscar expansions are going to have no problem getting in near the end of January 

[WrathOfHan]

1 minute ago, filmlover said:

Are we sure Hostiles is even opening in 1K theaters next weekend, let alone 3K? Cause jesus that will be a miserable PTA.

It has to be. Entertainment Studios has aired over 3,800 ads for it  Thieves and 12 Strong only have 1,450 and 1,260 respectively

[CoolioD1]

9 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

What about that "brief war violence" in the MPAA description?

that's just the scene where they have to deal with the nixon trolls in the comments section

[aabattery]

6 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

The Commuter could EASILY end up like Walk Among the Tombstones (12.8M opening/67% drop in the second weekend/26.3M Total), especially given it's opening on a 4 day weekend. 

 

So what you're saying is that The Commuter will never really leave the station?

[filmlover]

1 minute ago, WrathOfHan said:

It has to be. Entertainment Studios has aired over 3,800 ads for it  Thieves and 12 Strong only have 1,450 and 1,260 respectively

I honestly haven't seen a single ad for it lmao. Are we sure Entertainment Studios isn't spewing alternative facts?