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Alli

Weekend Thread | 3-day estimates (per BOM): J 27M, TP 18.6M, TC 13.45M, I:TLK 12.14M, TGS 11.8M, TLJ 11.28M, P2 10.62M, PM 10M

By Alli, in Numbers and Data

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Posted by MaxAggressor,

Deadline's Saturday figure & revised weekend estimate http://deadline.com/2018/01/the-commuter-proud-mary-jumanji-paddington-2-mlk-weekend-box-office-1202241724/   Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle(SONY), 3,849 theaters (+48) / $6.1M Fri (-43%)/$12.2M Sat/ 3-day: $27.5M (-26%)/4-day: $34M/Total:$291M/ Wk 4 The Post  (FOX/DW), 2,819 theaters (+2,783) / $5.9M  Fri (+1090%) /$7.4M Sat/ 3-day:$18.7M(+1,001%)/4-day: $22.4M/Total: $26.7M/Wk 4 The Commuter(LG), 2,892 theaters
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Arlborn Global Phenomenon

Arlborn

Posted
Posted (edited)
8 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

TLJ left 300-400m on the table via the reception. I really don't think that's something to celebrate, but whatever. 

 

Honestly? 100M ish domestically and 100M ish OS you could say were due to "mixed WOM", not much more than that, it was always destined for a big fall. Still a shame of course.

 

Also, I think "mixed WOM" has more to do with hardcore fans not wanting to repeat watch it as much than people who were going to watch it just deciding not to watch it at all after hearing mixed stuff about it.I don't think many people gave up on watching it at all.

 

Star Wars hardcore fans are just that hardcore and I honestly think its the repeat views business among them that hurt the movie the most.

 

It's a shame the hardcore fanbase is so divided about it. I honestly think it's better than TFA now and I really enjoyed TFA too.

 

Edited by Arlborn
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Lordmandeep Global Phenomenon

Lordmandeep

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Posted (edited)

The thing is If anyone said TLJ would get under a 3.0 multiplier over the Holidays, they would have been laughed at a month ago.  

 

 

 

I would also been also  laughing at that person. 

 

Edited by Lordmandeep
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KeepItU25071906 Box Office Gold

KeepItU25071906

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Edited by KeepItU25071906
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meriodejaneiro Box Office Gold

meriodejaneiro

Posted
Posted
12 minutes ago, FantasticBeasts said:

What was the last movie to do a sub 3 multiplier over christmas?

I bet you won't find another one easily...

And YES i know you won't find another $200m opener so don't bother noting.

And THAT'S how you do it boys... :bravo:

 

... you make a question, and you give the answer. Fast, clear, painless and most important of all ... not an endless bore. 

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MovieMan89 Global Phenomenon

MovieMan89

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1 minute ago, Lordmandeep said:

The thing is If anyone said TLJ would get under a 3.0 multiplier over the Holidays, they would have been laughed at a month ago.  

Haven't you heard? The story now is that everyone always had unreasonable expectations and the movie just did what it was always going to "reasonably" do. :)

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redfirebird2008 Global Phenomenon

redfirebird2008

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6 minutes ago, Arlborn said:

 

Honestly? 100M ish domestically and 100M ish OS you could say were due to "mixed WOM", not much more than that, it was always destined for a big fall. Still a shame of course.

 

Also, I think "mixed WOM" has more to do with hardcore fans not wanting to repeat watch it as much than people who were going to watch it just deciding not to watch it at all after hearing mixed stuff about it.I don't think many people gave up on watching it at all.

 

Star Wars hardcore fans are just that hardcore and I honestly think its the repeat views business among them that hurt the movie the most.

 

It's a shame the hardcore fanbase is so divided about it. I honestly think it's better than TFA now and I really enjoyed TFA too.

 

 

And speaking of that topic...now is a good time to ask him: @JonathanLB how many times have you seen TLJ? How many times did you see the previous Star Wars movies (including Rogue)?

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redfirebird2008 Global Phenomenon

redfirebird2008

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6 minutes ago, KeepItU25071906 said:

 

4-day gross went up $500,000 from the estimate. Awesome! Greatest Showman is a fun B.O. run to watch.

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IronJimbo Global Phenomenon

IronJimbo

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, aabattery said:

Lucasfilm looking for the money they've apparently lost from TLJ:

 

giphy.gif

 

They can't find it because they lost it? I thought you were a Star Wars posters why are you downplaying it so much!

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meriodejaneiro Box Office Gold

meriodejaneiro

Posted
Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, redfirebird2008 said:

 

It already has a 2.7 multiplier and will probably finish around 2.8 multiplier. That is not what many expected due to Christmas holidays, but it is still a very good multiplier for films that open above $140m. Here is the list:

 

1. TFA - 248 opening/3.78 multi

2. TLJ - 220 opening/2.8 multi

3. JW - 209 opening/3.12 multi

4. TA1 - 207 opening/3.00 multi

5. TA2 - 191 opening/2.40 multi

6. CA3 - 179 opening/2.28 multi

7. BATB - 175 opening/2.88 multi

8. IM3 - 174 opening/2.35 multi

9. DH2 - 169 opening/2.25 multi

10. BvS - 166 opening/1.99 multi

11. TDKR - 161 opening/2.78 multi

12. TDK - 158 opening/3.36 multi

13. THG2 - 158 opening/2.69 multi

14. Rogue - 155 opening/3.43 multi

15. THG1 - 152 opening/2.67 multi

16. SM3 - 151 opening/2.23 multi

17. FATF7 - 147 opening/2.40 multi

18. GOTG2 - 146 opening/2.66 multi

19. New Moon - 143 opening/2.08 multi

20. BD2 - 141 opening/2.07 multi

 

You can do much worse than a 2.8 multiplier, especially for a movie that opened to $220m. The bigger they open the harder they usually fall. So far the other 3 movies that reached $200m opening also had incredible WOM fueling them to multipliers above 3. That's not something we should expect all the time for 200 openers going forward.

 

What that list teaches us is that among the biggest openers, the TFA x3.78 and RO 3.43 multipliers are way above the norm (call it extremely-good-WOM, call it once-in-a-time hit, call it lack of competence... whatever). And that something under x3 is the normal for such huge openers. 

 

In fact the x2.8 is the top7 on that top20 all time openers list. What a flop, yeah...

Edited by meriodejaneiro
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grey ghost Global Phenomenon

grey ghost

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Posted
9 minutes ago, FantasticBeasts said:

And not unfairly. No one saw that coming. It was an anomally both for December releases as well as Star Wars releases.

Oh really.

 

What direct SW sequel are you comparing it to?

 

What 200+ m OW December release are you comparing it to?

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IronJimbo Global Phenomenon

IronJimbo

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13 minutes ago, Lordmandeep said:

The thing is If anyone said TLJ would get under a 3.0 multiplier over the Holidays, they would have been laughed at a month ago.  

 

 

 

I would also been also  laughing at that person. 

 

I was laughed at for saying it could get less than x3 after the online reviews were coming in and it had already made a 220OW!

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aabattery Global Phenomenon

aabattery

Posted
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3 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

 

They can't find it because they lost it? I thought you were a Star Wars posters why are you downplaying it so much!

 

They can't find it because they haven't lost any money on TLJ. 

 

It's a very layered joke, put a lot of effort into it.

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