Weekend Thread | 3-day estimates (per BOM): J 27M, TP 18.6M, TC 13.45M, I:TLK 12.14M, TGS 11.8M, TLJ 11.28M, P2 10.62M, PM 10M

[dudalb]

Most studios would kill to have a "flop" like The Last Jedi.

Yes, it won't do what Disney was hoping, but it will still make them a ton of money.

[hw64]

I expect those who refuse to believe that TLJ is in any way a disappointment will call Avatar 2 a resounding success if it comes out and makes $1.3b worldwide.

 

Anything else would be a double standard, right?

[a2k]

If TGS shows a ~29.3% drop from this weekend's 12.47m 3-day, it's coming weekend will also beat it's ow.

Edited January 16, 2018 by a2knet

[KC7]

22 minutes ago, KeepItU25071906 said:

The Greatest Showman grossed $3.71M on Monday. 4-Day weekend gross is $16.18M. Total gross through Monday is $98.93M.#GreatestShowman #BoxOffice @20thcenturyfox @GreatestShowman

— BoxOfficeReport.com (@BORReport) 16 января 2018 г.

 

From 13.7M in its first estimate Friday all the way to 16.18M. 100M today is a done deal.

[Arlborn]

5 minutes ago, hw64 said:

I expect those who refuse to believe that TLJ is in any way a disappointment will call Avatar 2 a resounding success if it comes out and makes $1.3b worldwide.

 

Anything else would be a double standard, right?

But nobody said TLJ was a "resounding success", come on. Nothing is black and white.

 

Also Avatar 2 at 1.3b WW would be pretty good.

[redfirebird2008]

4 minutes ago, hw64 said:

I expect those who refuse to believe that TLJ is in any way a disappointment will call Avatar 2 a resounding success if it comes out and makes $1.3b worldwide.

 

Anything else would be a double standard, right?

 

To be honest I don't have any expectation for Avatar 2. The first one's performance is so insane that you could call it a fluke event. The odds of repeating it are pretty much zero. I look at what happened to a sequel recently (Alice 2) that no one really asked for and it ended up losing 70% of the worldwide gross from the previous film.

 

If that happens to Avatar 2, it would gross $815m worldwide. I don't think something this extreme will happen, but I also don't have some crazy high expectation of the Avatar sequel either.

[MovieMan89]

Looks like I wasn't far off last week when I said 100m by MLK day might be a long shot possibility for TGS. 

[MovieMan89]

Didn't realize how leggy the first Jumanji was. 9x multi. It was the mid 90's, but that's still impressive. 

[hw64]

17 minutes ago, Arlborn said:

But nobody said TLJ was a "resounding success", come on. Nothing is black and white.

 

Also Avatar 2 at 1.3b WW would be pretty good.

I'm just saying that if The Last Jedi is not a disappointment for Disney because it made $1.3b and that's still a lot of money/profit for Disney (which is how the argument generally goes, for those who believe TLJ isn't a disappointment), then Avatar 2 is not a disappointment if it makes $1.3b by the exact same logic.

[redfirebird2008]

6 minutes ago, hw64 said:

I'm just saying that if The Last Jedi is not a disappointment for Disney because it made $1.3b and that's still a lot of money/profit for Disney (which is how the argument generally goes, for those who believe TLJ isn't a disappointment), then Avatar 2 is not a disappointment if it makes $1.3b by the exact same logic.

 

I think $1.3B would be a good result for Avatar 2. Remains to be seen whether they can hit lightning in a bottle the same way they did with the first movie.

[junkshop36]

So my mother finally saw TLJ. This is what my stepfather text me:

 

“Your mom says BEST SW EVER!!  

 

Mom knows best.  😬

 

[Deja23]

4 minutes ago, hw64 said:

I'm just saying that if The Last Jedi is not a disappointment for Disney because it made $1.3b and that's still a lot of money/profit for Disney (which is how the argument generally goes, for those who believe TLJ isn't a disappointment), then Avatar 2 is not a disappointment if it makes $1.3b by the exact same logic.

Pretty sure multiple posters have already said just because it isn’t reaching the heights Disney hoped for doesn’t mean it’s a flop. Most of this discussion started with someone claiming 1.3b is a flop. It isn’t and bringing up the fact that TLJ making it to the top 10 DOM and WW is an achievement doesn’t equal denying it had a disappointing run in general. There’s no reason to go into hyperbole with this movie. It did something most movies can’t do and though it's not doing as well as they wanted, Disney isn’t going to be crying about 1.3b. It’s neither a flop nor a resounding success. And that’s okay. 

[Chad Stevens]

3 minutes ago, junkshop36 said:

So my mother finally saw TLJ. This is what my stepfather text me:

 

“Your mom says BEST SW EVER!!  

 

Mom knows best.  😬

 

I think that's great

[hw64]

1 minute ago, Deja23 said:

Pretty sure multiple posters have already said just because it isn’t reaching the heights Disney hoped for doesn’t mean it’s a flop. Most of this discussion started with someone claiming 1.3b is a flop. It isn’t and bringing up the fact that TLJ making it to the top 10 DOM and WW is an achievement doesn’t equal denying it had a disappointing run in general. There’s no reason to go into hyperbole with this movie. It did something most movies can’t do and though it's not doing as well as they wanted, Disney isn’t going to be crying about 1.3b. It’s neither a flop nor a resounding success. And that’s okay. 

I'm talking specifically of the people who claim that The Last Jedi isn't a disappointment, that it made what it was supposed to make, and that everyone's pre-release predictions were just too high.

[AndyK]

7 minutes ago, junkshop36 said:

So my mother finally saw TLJ. This is what my stepfather text me:

 

“Your mom says BEST SW EVER!!  

 

Mom knows best.  😬

 

Has she got a Rotten Tomatoes account?

 

Every little bit helps.

[WrathOfHan]

Some TGS songs are starting to hit the Spotify US Top 50 (Rewrite the Stars at 22 and This Is Me at 43); the Billboard Top 40 is next    

[Valonqar]

39 minutes ago, Arlborn said:

But nobody said TLJ was a "resounding success", come on. Nothing is black and white.

 

Also Avatar 2 at 1.3b WW would be pretty good.

riiiight. That would be 1.4b drop in raw numbers. 

[Rebeccas]

It’s pretty clear that at this point SW as a brand is incapable of flopping, at worst their grosses might be considered mildly disappointing. But not even AOTC, a bad film that was the sequel to a bad film, would be considered a financial flop. The day will come though. 

[MCKillswitch123]

13 minutes ago, hw64 said:

I'm just saying that if The Last Jedi is not a disappointment for Disney because it made $1.3b and that's still a lot of money/profit for Disney (which is how the argument generally goes, for those who believe TLJ isn't a disappointment), then Avatar 2 is not a disappointment if it makes $1.3b by the exact same logic.

I don't think anyone is denying that TLJ is a disappointment, they're just denying that it's a flop. Like I said myself, there's a huge difference between those two sentences. You can disappoint, but still be a massive hit. Look at Age Of Ultron, in example. TLJ falls in that line as well. Disappointment? Hell yes. Failure? Hell no.

 

And tbh, I also don't know what anyone not named IronJimbo is expecting for Avatar 2, but I do actually think no one should be too mad if it "only" made 1.3B. It's been many years since the 1st Avatar, and that wasn't even a true pop culture icon of a film that it stayed with audiences ever since. Sure, it's recognizable, but it's not a movie that people have shown care for these years down the line, despite being the highest grossing film in history. A fall of around 50% would hardly be shocking (unless the movie is Terminator 2-quality and/or the 1st major step in Ultra IMAX 24K 5D or something like that, just how Avatar 1 was the 1st step in IMAX 3D).

 

That being said, it would still be a fall of around 50%, which would be... not great. But, at least from my end, I would argue that it can't disappoint if you weren't caught off guard, right?  (More than likely it will make around 1.75-1.8B, for my realistic prediction right now.)

[Deja23]

16 minutes ago, hw64 said:

I'm talking specifically of the people who claim that The Last Jedi isn't a disappointment, that it made what it was supposed to make, and that everyone's pre-release predictions were just too high.

Yeah, I don’t see those claims. Then again, my ignore list grows by the day so maybe I missed it.