SLAM! Posted January 22, 2018 Share Posted January 22, 2018 2 hours ago, WrathOfHan said: No applause for Aziz lol; he's not even here! My post in the Golden Globe thread about me being happy that he won the award isn't going to age well, will it? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Panda Posted January 22, 2018 Share Posted January 22, 2018 Just now, slambros said: My post in the Golden Globe thread about me being happy that he won the award isn't going to age well, will it? I think you’re fine. The backlash against Ansari as a person is kind of BS. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WrathOfHan Posted January 22, 2018 Share Posted January 22, 2018 I'm going with The Shape of Water right now for two reasons: 1. Preferential voting will be much kinder to it than 3B 2. The last five movies to win BP with multiple acting wins were Million Dollar Baby in 04, Shakespeare in Love in 98, Silence of the Lambs in 91, Terms of Endearment in 83, and Kramer vs Kramer in 79. It doesn't happen that often, though maybe that's more reason for 3B to win. idk 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
filmlover Posted January 22, 2018 Share Posted January 22, 2018 (edited) 3 minutes ago, Fancyarcher said: Billboards is likely winning unless somehow there really is a backlash. Personally I'd prefer The Shape of Water to take the trophy (it's my favorite film of the year), but Billboards is a very good best picture winner too. I'd be fine with either film winning tbh (both are in my top 10). I resigned that my #1 of the year (Call Me by Your Name) has no shot of winning a while back. Edited January 22, 2018 by filmlover Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Panda Posted January 22, 2018 Share Posted January 22, 2018 3 minutes ago, Fancyarcher said: Billboards is likely winning unless somehow there really is a backlash. Personally I'd prefer The Shape of Water to take the trophy (it's my favorite film of the year), but Billboards is a very good best picture winner too. Right now I’d say Billboards - 50% SOW - 25% Get Out - 7.5% Lady Bird - 7.5% 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
titanic2187 Posted January 22, 2018 Share Posted January 22, 2018 Save for best picture, basically the winner for each acting categories for Oscar has been idetified since golden globe winner are repeated here. SAG+golden globe=Oscar, unless they snub the winner for even nominations Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Webslinger Posted January 22, 2018 Share Posted January 22, 2018 The Shape of Water is also strange enough that it could land low on enough ballots to keep it from the win. It's gonna be a toss-up until the second the envelope is opened... assuming it's the right envelope this time. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kraken Posted January 22, 2018 Share Posted January 22, 2018 I still think that Lady Bird has a shot due to narrative (and it being great), but I'd be fine with any of the FS films. If I I had to choose a BP winner it'd be Shape, no doubt (with LB and CMBYN next in line). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fancyarcher Posted January 22, 2018 Share Posted January 22, 2018 Just now, New Year New Panda said: Right now I’d say Billboards - 50% SOW - 25% Get Out - 7.5% Lady Bird - 7.5% About the same, except I'd say that Shape of Water has a 30% chance of winning, and Billboard has a 45% of winning. It's between those two at this point, and more then likely will see a split between best picture and best director like the previous two years. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
titanic2187 Posted January 22, 2018 Share Posted January 22, 2018 4 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said: I'm going with The Shape of Water right now for two reasons: 1. Preferential voting will be much kinder to it than 3B 2. The last five movies to win BP with multiple acting wins were Million Dollar Baby in 04, Shakespeare in Love in 98, Silence of the Lambs in 91, Terms of Endearment in 83, and Kramer vs Kramer in 79. It doesn't happen that often, though maybe that's more reason for 3B to win. idk With preferential system, the movies aren't just compete for who loves them the most, but who hate them the least, 3Billboard doesn't seem to have that feature 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
filmlover Posted January 22, 2018 Share Posted January 22, 2018 All I can say is that Tuesday morning better deliver some surprises otherwise this is gonna be quite the boring season. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeepItU25071906 Posted January 22, 2018 Share Posted January 22, 2018 (edited) 10 minutes ago, New Year New Panda said: Right now I’d say Billboards - 50% SOW - 25% Get Out - 7.5% Lady Bird - 7.5% Get Out -0%. Lady Bird- 5% Here's the thing: Oscar goes to Fox Searchlight. Last swan song from company( Edited January 22, 2018 by KeepItU25071906 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCsoft Posted January 22, 2018 Share Posted January 22, 2018 7 minutes ago, KeepItU25071906 said: Get Out -0%. Lady Bird- 5% Here's the thing: Oscar goes to Fox Searchlight. Last swan song from company( same feeling, I'm not ready to say Lady Bird is completely dead yet (but it's pretty close), get out is completely dead... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
filmlover Posted January 22, 2018 Share Posted January 22, 2018 FWIW, only three other films have won 3 SAG awards (American Beauty, Chicago, The Help). Here's an interesting twist though: all three of those movies won Best Actress (which Three Billboards also did), but lost in the category at the Oscars. McDormand's speech tonight basically said "I want to see younger talent get rewarded instead" so if voters take that to heart...maybe Ronan has a chance? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
That One Girl Posted January 22, 2018 Share Posted January 22, 2018 1 minute ago, filmlover said: FWIW, only three other films have won 3 SAG awards (American Beauty, Chicago, The Help). Here's an interesting twist though: all three of those movies won Best Actress (which Three Billboards also did), but lost in the category at the Oscars. McDormand's speech tonight basically said "I want to see younger talent get rewarded instead" so if voters take that to heart...maybe Ronan has a chance? SALLY HAWKINS! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeepItU25071906 Posted January 22, 2018 Share Posted January 22, 2018 (edited) 10 minutes ago, filmlover said: FWIW, only three other films have won 3 SAG awards (American Beauty, Chicago, The Help). Here's an interesting twist though: all three of those movies won Best Actress (which Three Billboards also did), but lost in the category at the Oscars. McDormand's speech tonight basically said "I want to see younger talent get rewarded instead" so if voters take that to heart...maybe Ronan has a chance? Last years usually brokes the some interesting statistics. So I don't believe in Ronan's win. No chance. McDormand is unstoppable this award's season. Edited January 22, 2018 by KeepItU25071906 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WrathOfHan Posted January 22, 2018 Share Posted January 22, 2018 14 minutes ago, filmlover said: FWIW, only three other films have won 3 SAG awards (American Beauty, Chicago, The Help). Here's an interesting twist though: all three of those movies won Best Actress (which Three Billboards also did), but lost in the category at the Oscars. McDormand's speech tonight basically said "I want to see younger talent get rewarded instead" so if voters take that to heart...maybe Ronan has a chance? Robbie is over Ronan at this point IMO Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
filmlover Posted January 22, 2018 Share Posted January 22, 2018 (edited) 4 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said: Robbie is over Ronan at this point IMO I can't see it. If Robbie was that strong of a contender, the Globe would've easily been hers. Edited January 22, 2018 by filmlover 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BardCrank Posted January 22, 2018 Share Posted January 22, 2018 If 3B wins BAFTA then I think it's over , If TSOW wins BAFTA or WGA it will be an interesting year Lady Bird still has a 10%ish chance I think . every other thing is dead Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Valonqar Posted January 22, 2018 Share Posted January 22, 2018 (edited) Guys, it's over. #MeToo Revenge Fantasy Flick is winning, the worst win since Crash. It's over. TSOW winning PGA means nothing. The voting is closed. No wonder Francis could afford to say stuff like give the award to Sheesha or Margot cause that makes no difference. The winners are known: BP = #MeToo BD = GdT hopefully and not a McDonagh upset Script = #MeToo (you'll know #MeToo is winning the whole she-bang when it wins Script cause all recent winners had Script+BP combo) BA = Francis BA = Oldman BSA = Rockwell BSA = Janney There will be no upsets. This is their political BP of the season and they'll back it up all the way. Edited January 22, 2018 by Valonqar Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
