Top Gun Maverick | May 27, 2022 | Catch it in theaters...again on December 2nd! | Comes to Paramount+ on December 22!

[ListenHunnyUrOver]

I’m skeptical of this doing so well, but if it does then Hold My Oscar better get a boost so the haters can be silenced. 

[Ryan Reynolds]

 

[Tarintino]

6 hours ago, lorddemaxus said:

No, it's not really much like Dunkirk (which, goes more into abstract territory). And that final chase (it's more like 3 chases really) that "goes on far too long" and" devoid of tension" is what made people care for the characters (along with the previous chase sequences). Not my problem that you were expecting characters to go on monologues for you to care about them instead of the emphasis on gestures, close-ups, and cutting like with this.

I never said it was your problem, but anyways, Top Gun

 

I really dont know what numbers to expect from this, I was expecting a rotten score and a flop and so far I'm embarassingly wrong on the first part

[titanic2187]

They really create a summer event of a 36 years old sequel. Multiple success for paramount lately but TG2 I think is the first genuine mega hit for paramount since TF4. 

[Ryan Reynolds]

58 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:

They really create a summer event of a 36 years old sequel. Multiple success for paramount lately but TG2 I think is the first genuine mega hit for paramount since TF4. 

Fallout was a hit, and TG2 will not top that without China 

[Maggie]

1 minute ago, Ryan Reynolds said:

Fallout was a hit, and TG2 will not top that without China 

Plus don't forget Russia and Ukraine

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

Lots of factors when considering TGM's box office potential.

 

1) How much fan rush will there be?
2) Can the film itself escape the "franchise" its apart of and draw in people under 30?
3) Will the content be something this generation cares for?
4) Will American exceptionalism rue the day?

 

FWIW, I'm thinking we could potentially see something similar to what Solo: A Star Wars Story was supposed to be on track to bring....

 

Spoiler

Which I recall as being $170M (4 days). 

 

[Ryan Reynolds]

17 minutes ago, MessiahXXR said:

Lots of factors when considering TGM's box office potential.

 

1) How much fan rush will there be?
2) Can the film itself escape the "franchise" its apart of and draw in people under 30?
3) Will the content be something this generation cares for?
4) Will American exceptionalism rue the day?

 

FWIW, I'm thinking we could potentially see something similar to what Solo: A Star Wars Story was supposed to be on track to bring....

 

  Reveal hidden contents

Which I recall as being $170M (4 days). 

 

Solo wasn't a event and didn't have Harrison Ford , TG2 may perform like Crystal Skull with better wom/legs

[HesAPooka]

4 hours ago, Ryan Reynolds said:

 

Two things I want re-released. All the made for tv movies from CBS Saturday Night Movie, and All the made for tv movies from Disney's Wonderful world series.

[FilmFincher]

So this is getting very similar reviews to Mission Impossible: Fallout and will likely be the best action movie since then. I think I'm going to explode from anticipation. 

 

What's giving Top Gun the edge when it comes to it's opening? Fallout opened to $61M and most places are expecting Top Gun to have a $90M+ opening. 

 

Is it that Mission has a bit more of a limited (albeit consistent) audience whereas the original Top Gun was the highest grossing film that year and hasn't burnt off demand with sequels in the interim? The return factor can be pretty big but how much does that appeal to younger audiences who have been the ones consistently turning up during the pandemic. 

 

Is it just better positioned to have a sudden explosion and also bring the older crowd back to movie going? It seems like a pretty wide appeal film, having everything you want from a summer blockbuster. 

 

Can we expect better legs than Fallout as well because that's a 6th film in a franchise? It had a 3.6 multiplier which would be pretty damn good for Top Gun if it does open big and Jurassic World on the horizon which will likely win the summer. 

[Brainbug]

Just now, FilmFincher said:

So this is getting very similar reviews to Mission Impossible: Fallout and will likely be the best action movie since then. I think I'm going to explode from anticipation. 

 

What's giving Top Gun the edge when it comes to it's opening? Fallout opened to $61M and most places are expecting Top Gun to have a $90M+ opening. 

 

Is it that Mission has a bit more of a limited (albeit consistent) audience whereas the original Top Gun was the highest grossing film that year and hasn't burnt off demand with sequels in the interim? The return factor can be pretty big but how much does that appeal to younger audiences who have been the ones consistently turning up during the pandemic. 

 

Is it just better positioned to have a sudden explosion and also bring the older crowd back to movie going? It seems like a pretty wide appeal film, having everything you want from a summer blockbuster. 

 

Can we expect better legs than Fallout as well because that's a 6th film in a franchise? It had a 3.6 multiplier which would be pretty damn good for Top Gun if it does open big and Jurassic World on the horizon which will likely win the summer. 

 

I think whats giving Top Gun the edge is 1) Mission Impossible has a fairly established audience at this point, so even if the movie is a masterpiece like with Fallout, theres just a certain ceiling for it and 2) Top Gun: Maverick is the 2nd movie coming decades after the first one and so it feels very fresh and new, while weve had 6 Mission movies since 1996.

 

Elaborating on one of your points, Top Gun (1986) adjusts to nearly 500M DOM i believe and after its run, it has become a classic and a very beloved film for many people so the potential audience here for another Top Gun movie that directly connects with the nostalgia of those people is HUGE. Memorial Day Weekend is also a perfect OW place for it.

 

If the WOM is as amazing as its reviews, then yes, even with the Memorial Day OW we could absolutely see a 3,5+ multiplier for it imo. I also believe it will be able to co-exist very fine with Jurassic World or Lightyear, since as a film, its premise is so different.

[BoxOfficeFangrl]

20 hours ago, Ryan Reynolds said:

 

I am watching this now... Looked up Tom Cruise's age,  and he was 23 when this hit theaters?! He was born in July 1962 and Top Gun was a May 1986 release. That's wild, today Hollywood guys that age are still playing high school kids in big budget movies, maybe early college students, but not so much grown men.

 

Goose's kid here seems to be like 3 or 4 already, I guess Miles Teller is playing a younger brother?  Not that Top Gun: Maverick will be all that concerned about the timelines matching up, that's not the point of movies like this.

 

 

Edited May 15, 2022 by BoxOfficeFangrl

[Tarintino]

6 hours ago, BoxOfficeFangrl said:

I am watching this now... Looked up Tom Cruise's age,  and he was 23 when this hit theaters?! He was born in July 1962 and Top Gun was a May 1986 release. That's wild, today Hollywood guys that age are still playing high school kids in big budget movies, maybe early college students, but not so much grown men.

 

Goose's kid here seems to be like 3 or 4 already, i guess Miles Teller is playing a younger brother?  Not that Top Gun: Maverick will be all that concerned about the timelines matching up, that's not the point of movies like this.

 

 

Flighter pilots usually have a cut off age at sround 25 years old so the young casting makes sense. They don't tend to accept anyone older

Edited May 15, 2022 by Tarintino

[excel1]

Hoping this movie is awesome but personally will be stunned if the film comes close to some of these recent predictions. 

[Maggie]

5 minutes ago, excel1 said:

Hoping this movie is awesome but personally will be stunned if the film comes close to some of these recent predictions. 

Yeah, the predictions are getting out of control. Let's remember Fallout had great reviews too and it "only" made 220M. This will probably do more, but no way it's even coming close to Strange

[Krissykins]

Just watched the original film for the first time. 
 

So much sweat. It was silly fun, but it looks like things are taken up a notch here. The stakes were so low in the original film. As everyone says: it’s very homoerotic which I found entertaining and the dialogue only adds to that at times 😂
 

It’s very of it’s time, loved the score, music and some of the shots are gorgeous. Strangely, I was more entertained when they weren’t in the air. 

Edited May 15, 2022 by Krissykins

[EmpireCity]

5 hours ago, Maggie said:

Yeah, the predictions are getting out of control. Let's remember Fallout had great reviews too and it "only" made 220M. This will probably do more, but no way it's even coming close to Strange

 

There is zero comparison between this and Fallout other than the lead actor.  They are two completely different animals.  

[EmpireCity]

5 hours ago, excel1 said:

Hoping this movie is awesome but personally will be stunned if the film comes close to some of these recent predictions. 

 

Prepare to be stunned.  

[keysersoze123]

6 hours ago, Maggie said:

Yeah, the predictions are getting out of control. Let's remember Fallout had great reviews too and it "only" made 220M. This will probably do more, but no way it's even coming close to Strange

MI is unfortunately more niche. Top Gun is as mainstream as an action thriller can be. The PS for this already is crazy strong and this will have amazing WOM. Just look at reactions in this thread for this movie already. it has tremendous repeatable value and it has long theatrical run( 4 months). We are definitely going to see 1st mega breakout for a non SH movie in post COVID era. 

 

I on the other hand is not still feeling JW3. PS just does not look like a 200m opener. If it opens closer to last movie then TG2 could beat that as well. I am still not predicting it to win the summer as I am not sure how big Thor 4 would be. I am not underestimating a MCU flick plus Taika I think will ace it. 

[ThomasNicole]

6 hours ago, Maggie said:

Yeah, the predictions are getting out of control. Let's remember Fallout had great reviews too and it "only" made 220M. This will probably do more, but no way it's even coming close to Strange

OW big predictions are very reasonable considering the presales, i don't think there's much room to debate this unless presales suddenly freefall.

 

The "over strange" expectations tho is just a feeling that this will have some really strong legs. We won't know for sure before it drops, but honestly, based on the reviews, it's a possibility for sure.

 

MI seems like a less appealing IP in the states, i'm not sure if it's reasonable to compare them. I actually think if TG2 explodes, MI7 will be the one to benefit from this.