Biggest bomb of 2018

[Arlborn]

5 minutes ago, TombRaider said:

we can already count RPO off

Tom Raider as well actually. Not sure if it will be much profitable at all but it's definitely not bombing.

 

Wrinkle In Time bombed but I don't think it will be the biggest one. Not sure what to make of Anhilation cause of its Netflix deal.

 

Also there are a few movies missing in this list.

 

 

Edited March 30, 2018 by Arlborn

[That One Girl]

Lol the poll is messed up for me.  It tells me 46 people voted for Mortal Engines, and when I click on it only @lilmac's name pops up.

[Lothar]

Once upon a time. There were articles like these. Then everyone saw highest grossing movie of all time WW.

 

https://www.nbcdfw.com/entertainment/movies/Avatar-Might-Be-The-Longest-Biggest-Flop-Ever-78773732.html

 

http://www.businessinsider.com/avatar-doesnt-break-any-box-office-records-2009-12

 

 

I believe that Alita is going to be one of the top blockbuster movie of 2018

Edited March 30, 2018 by Lothar

[TombRaider]

1 hour ago, Arlborn said:

Tom Raider as well actually. Not sure if it will be much profitable at all but it's definitely not bombing.

 

Wrinkle In Time bombed but I don't think it will be the biggest one. Not sure what to make of Anhilation cause of its Netflix deal.

 

Also there are a few movies missing in this list.

 

 

only delusional trolls chose TR. but RPO was in doubt and mentioned many times

 

still think alita de pollo will be the bomb of the year

Edited March 30, 2018 by TombRaider

[dxmatrixdt]

Skyscraper, Annihilation and A Wrinkle in Time are likely in the lead with this poll.

[Legion Again]

The true answer was Solo all along 

[sfran43]

What poor lost soul voted Venom?!

 

And after grossing over 1/2 billion dollars WW, The Meg being on this list feels so wrong!

Edited October 11, 2018 by sfran43

[filmlover]

lol two of these movies were saved from this poll by either moving to next year (Alita) or being banished to Netflix (Mowgli).

[kitik]

Mowgli got $0, so that's your winner.

[MrGlass2]

21 minutes ago, kitik said:

Mowgli got $0, so that's your winner.

No. Mowgli, Annihilation and Alita are not the biggest box office bombs of 2018.

Edited October 11, 2018 by MrGlass2

[Napoleon]

It's between A Wrinkle In Time and Solo.

 

Mortal Engines will bomb hard too but I don't think it will lose as much as those two.

[Valonqar]

The winner is 100% Solo. Nobody expected Solo to bomb so hard that it couldn't even make 400M WW. People expected it to be the lowest grossing of Disney wars, but nobody went this low with predictions (I think that 700M was the lowest).

 

It's funny that this winner super bomb Solo and runner up super bomb Pacific Rim 2 weren't in the poll. OTOH, shocking hit The Meg and shouldn't-have-surprised-anyone-cause-popular-character Venom are. 

 

AWIT bomb shouldn't have been a surprise cause it was Oprah's vanity project based on a YA book and YA sub-genre is dead.  Ditto Mortal Engines. Another expensive attempt to resurrect that fad sub-genre that need not be resurrected. Bomb incoming. 

 

so I'd rank them:

 

Solo - the Winner 

 

PRU - First Runner Up

 

AWIT - Second Runner Up 

 

 

[James]

10 hours ago, Napoleon said:

It's between A Wrinkle In Time and Solo.

 

Mortal Engines will bomb hard too but I don't think it will lose as much as those two.

It is Solo. Yeah, AWIT did bad, but Solo will was probably the one most expensive box office disasters ever. A 275m budget and probaby another 150m in marketing. AWIT looks insignificant in comparison.

[Napoleon]

1 hour ago, James said:

It is Solo. Yeah, AWIT did bad, but Solo will was probably the one most expensive box office disasters ever. A 275m budget and probaby another 150m in marketing. AWIT looks insignificant in comparison.

I don't think we should underestimate A Wrinkle In Time. Deadline reported a $250 million total cost, and it made only $133 million worldwide. Assuming studios make back between 50-60% of ticket sales, that's a massive loss in the $170-$180 million range.

[Barnack]

1 hour ago, James said:

It is Solo. Yeah, AWIT did bad, but Solo will was probably the one most expensive box office disasters ever. A 275m budget and probaby another 150m in marketing. AWIT looks insignificant in comparison.

I get Solo being the biggest bomb because of what it represent for the franchise and so on.

 

But if the 2 were just original movie.

 

Wrinkle in time budget was around a gross of 140m (85m below the line in California alone), for still an above 200m WW P&A + net production budget for this, doing 132m WW.

 

Solo made significantly more than 300m at the box office, almost 400m and quite the domestic heavy affair.

 

The fact Disney finance is stuff so much alone chance the variable a bit, absolute lost/gain become more important than pure relative to the budget lost when it is 8 entity pitching in.

 

I would think they are very similar, if Solo not a smaller looser. 

[Valonqar]

11 minutes ago, Napoleon said:

I don't think we should underestimate A Wrinkle In Time. Deadline reported a $250 million total cost, and it made only $133 million worldwide. Assuming studios make back between 50-60% of ticket sales, that's a massive loss in the $170-$180 million range.

[Barnack]

On 10/11/2018 at 2:45 PM, Napoleon said:

I don't think we should underestimate A Wrinkle In Time. Deadline reported a $250 million total cost, and it made only $133 million worldwide. Assuming studios make back between 50-60% of ticket sales, that's a massive loss in the $170-$180 million range.

I think that world P&A they were going for was before Disney cut their lost and made small release in many market when they didn't cancel it all together, but they were going low on the production budget at the beginning.

 

Regardless that not really how:

retention rate * Box office - WW P&A

 

you can calculate a movie loss/gain.

 

A movie source of income in average for a studio will often look like this:

Domestic theatrical: 10 to 25%

Intl theatrical: 10 to 25%

domestic home ent: 15-30%

intl hom ent: 8-15%

domestic TV: 6-14%

International TV: 10-20%

 

You are leaving most revenues out of your rules of thumb equation.

 

If you look here:

https://www.thewaltdisneycompany.com/wp-content/uploads/2017-Annual-Report.pdf

 

Disney studio ent division made 8.38b last year, only 2.9 billion of those were from theatrical (consumer product is so big they count it in their own division, not the movie one), they followed the very classic 35% from theater, 65% outside theater rules of thumb for movies studios. It varies the big 3D affair giant box office success can go closer to 45% of is revenues from theater if we do not consider merchandise or if it is not a good one for those and the small domestic heavy action movie can go closer to 25% of the revenues from theater, but you get the idea.

 

You need something that is more balanced, most of the revenues are after theatrical and most of the expense are before the end of theatrical, making not taking into account the rest of the movie life quite far from reality and will make it look like almost no movies in the 2000s made any profits.

 

 

Edited October 14, 2018 by Barnack

[Barnack]

10 minutes ago, Valonqar said:

Captain philips total cost ended up at 225 millions, Moneyball at 169m, Elysium 272m, Girl with the dragoon tattoo 281m isshh.

 

250m is not Deadline total cost evaluation, only production + WW release P&A and not that specially high for a giant movie with a planned world release.

[Valonqar]

why movies cost so much? Even when they had bad CGI? 

[Barnack]

2 minutes ago, Valonqar said:

why movies cost so much? Even when they had bad CGI? 

You can look at how much they cost without having made the CGI yet by looking at say Annie budget breakdown:

 

Last 2 pages for the top sheet resume:

https://wikileaks.org/sony/docs/03_03/RISKMGMT/Production Files/Annie/Budget/Annie - Budgets.pdf

 

Making the script / buying movie right can often close to 10 millions.

Producer, 2 to 5 millions

Cast: 10 to 20m easily

Director: 2 to 4m

Living & Travel for above the line people can go to 1 million if shoot on locations. Living and transport for the regular crew can reach 8-10m

Score/ music can cost 2 to 5m

 

After that a domestic release can easily cost 40 to 55m

International release tend to be cheaper for size (you can less return but often do not pay has much), but can still be easily 45-55m

 

world Home ent release can cost 35m

Count 10-15% of the movie budget in overhead

residuals: 5 to 12m

And people with participations bonus.

 

You can easily reach a 200m total cost for a 50m movie.

You can certainly easily reach 250m total cost for a 103 to 120m movie like Wrinkle in Time.