Weekend Thread: Weekend estimates pg 38...BP 41.14....WIT 33.31

[sfran43]

25 minutes ago, Alli said:

Industry estimates for the weekend of March 9-11:

1..) Black Panther (DIS), 3,942 theaters (-142)  / $10.2M Fri  (-37%) / 3-day: $41.5M (-37%)/Total: $562.3M/Wk 3

2..) A Wrinkle in Time (DIS), 3,980 theaters  / $11.3m Fri (includes $1.2M previews)/3-day: $35.3M /Wk 1

3..) Strangers: Prey at Night (AVI), 2,464 theaters  / $3.8M Fri /3-day: $9.6M /Wk 1

4..) Red Sparrow (FOX), 3,064 theaters (+8)  / $2.3m Fri (-61%)/3-day: $7.78M (-54%)/Total: $30.7M/ Wk 2

5..) Peter Rabbit (SONY), 3,112 theaters (-495)  / $1.5M Fri (-26%) /3-day: $7.6M (-23%) /Total: $94.3M/Wk 5

6..) Game Night (NL/WB), 3,061 theaters (-441) / $2m Fri (-33%)/3-day: $7.1M (-31%)/Total: $44.3M/Wk 3

7..) Death Wish (MGM), 2,882 theaters (+35)  / $1.75M Fri (-59%)/3-day: $6.1M (-53%)/Total: $23.3M/Wk 2

8/9/10) Annihilation (PAR), 1,709 theaters (-403)  / $827K Fri (-46%)/3-day: $3M (-45%)/Total: $26M/Wk 3

  Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle (SONY), 2,157 theaters (-156) / $656K Fri (-37%)/3-day: $3M (-32%)/Total:$397.5M/ Wk 12

Gringo (AMX/STX), 2,404 theaters  / $1M Fri  /3-day: $3M  /Wk 1

11..) The Hurricane Heist (EST), 2,402 theaters  / $900k Fri /3-day: $2.6M /Wk 1

Yikes at Red Sparrow 50%+ drop!

Edited March 10, 2018 by sfran43

[aabattery]

Game Night with the good drop. Pray4McAdams.

[Zakiyyah6]

If it only does 35mil I don't see Wrinkle making much of a profit if it doesn't double what Tomorrowland did overseas even if it does scrape past 100mil domestically. Not like Disney will be hurting either way but this is clearly not the Time Magazine Cover approved phenomenon that the media was hyping it up to be. I know some hate when I bring that up but it annoyed me so I will continue to. I don't like unearned hype.

Edited March 10, 2018 by Zakiyyah6

[BoilingHotCoffee]

$46.9M Weekend for Black Panther incoming

[Cooper Legion]

Will also accept 42.69 and 42.069 if needs must.

[titanic2187]

12…) The Shape of Water  (FSL), 1,552 theaters (+720) / $550K Fri (+70%)  / 3-day: $2.1M (+45%)/Total: $60.7M/Wk 15

 

This is decent but a disappointing figure given that much more artsy moonlight got 2.3m last year while SoW being much more crowd-pleaser. Actually I was rooting for 10m from SoW post oscar win since the movie had the higher gross on the oscar weekend, but it seems like it is going to be another 4m-6m range for BP winner in the post-oscar win lifespan. 

[Krissykins]

Wow. That early Friday of $14m that Deadline, Variety and THR posted couldn’t have been more off. Ouch. 

[Krissykins]

My local cinema is doing a Ready Player One screening on Monday the 19th March. 

[Jessie]

17 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:

12…) The Shape of Water  (FSL), 1,552 theaters (+720) / $550K Fri (+70%)  / 3-day: $2.1M (+45%)/Total: $60.7M/Wk 15

 

This is decent but a disappointing figure given that much more artsy moonlight got 2.3m last year while SoW being much more crowd-pleaser. Actually I was rooting for 10m from SoW post oscar win since the movie had the higher gross on the oscar weekend, but it seems like it is going to be another 4m-6m range for BP winner in the post-oscar win lifespan. 

Crowd pleaser? The movie sucks

[Cooper Legion]

BP dropped 44.7% 2nd weekend, and 40.6% 3rd. If it can come in with 42.1 here that would be a 36.5% drop, which is a perfect linear progression in terms of percentage drops. Some simple extrapolation would then give a 32.4% drop for next weekend (28.46), unfortunately falling below Frozen to be only the 4th best 5th weekend ever.         

 

A little more simple extrapolation reveals that BP would drop only 3.7% in its 12th weekend and then see an increase of .4% in its 13th before having a whopping 29.1% weekend to weekend increase for its 20th weekend

 

 

Edited March 10, 2018 by Sliver Legion

[DeeCee]

Plus last year people who went to see Moonlight probably expected La La Land to screen. 

[Cooper Legion]

Okay, a post with some more serious numbers. If BP gets a 42 weekend to get a 563 total to date, then here’s about how it would do with the 4th weekend multipliers of some various movies (some better comps than others):

GotG2 675  

TFA 687

TA 689

BATB 692

DP 693

The Jungle Book 693

JW 701

TDK 710

WW 722

JUM2 731

Zootopia 739 

SM:H 740

 

That was all mental math, so don’t @ me if some of them are like +/- 2M, but basically top 3 DOM is looking *very* good.

[Darth Lehnsherr]

3 minutes ago, Sliver Legion said:

Okay, a post with some more serious numbers. If BP gets a 42 weekend to get a 563 total to date, then here’s about how it would do with the 4th weekend multipliers of some various movies (some better comps than others):

GotG2 675  

TFA 687

TA 689

BATB 692

DP 693

The Jungle Book 693

JW 701

TDK 710

WW 722

JUM2 731

Zootopia 739 

SM:H 740

 

That was all mental math, so don’t @ me if some of them are like +/- 2M, but basically top 3 DOM is looking *very* good.

Look at Spidey's late legs. I remember when everyone was panicking after that 2nd Weekend drop of 62%

[Jessie]

50 minutes ago, Sliver Legion said:

BP dropped 44.7% 2nd weekend, and 40.6% 3rd. If it can come in with 42.1 here that would be a 36.5% drop, which is a perfect linear progression in terms of percentage drops. Some simple extrapolation would then give a 32.4% drop for next weekend (28.46), unfortunately falling below Frozen to be only the 4th best 5th weekend ever.         

 

A little more simple extrapolation reveals that BP would drop only 3.7% in its 12th weekend and then see an increase of .4% in its 13th before having a whopping 29.1% weekend to weekend increase for its 20th weekend

 

 

 Damn it will start increasing in a couple of months

[Alexiswills12]

2 hours ago, Zakiyyah6 said:

If it only does 35mil I don't see Wrinkle making much of a profit if it doesn't double what Tomorrowland did overseas even if it does scrape past 100mil domestically. Not like Disney will be hurting either way but this is clearly not the Time Magazine Cover approved phenomenon that the media was hyping it up to be. I know some hate when I bring that up but it annoyed me so I will continue to. I don't like unearned hype.

Oh please, no one was hyping this.

Promoting a movie is not the same as hyping it up.

Learn the difference.

 

This, is the begin of hype.

A top Disney exec told me flat out that they would be campaigning not only Black Panther for the big prize but also the upcoming Mary Poppins Returns (from director Rob Marshall), which he was raving about, particularly for star Emily Blunt. who he says knocks it out of the park in the role for which Julie Andrews already has an Oscar. 

 

And I expect Mary Poppins will be promoted and hyped to no end.

 

No one was raving about AWIT.

[Alexiswills12]

1 hour ago, Sliver Legion said:

Okay, a post with some more serious numbers. If BP gets a 42 weekend to get a 563 total to date, then here’s about how it would do with the 4th weekend multipliers of some various movies (some better comps than others):

GotG2 675  

TFA 687

TA 689

BATB 692

DP 693

The Jungle Book 693

JW 701

TDK 710

WW 722

JUM2 731

Zootopia 739 

SM:H 740

 

That was all mental math, so don’t @ me if some of them are like +/- 2M, but basically top 3 DOM is looking *very* good.

Which one is more likely in your opinion?

[Nova]

I was really rooting for AWIT but yea these are disappointing numbers. No other way to describe them. 

[kayumanggi]

What is A WRINKLE IN TIME's budget?

[fabiopazzo2]

2 minutes ago, kayumanggi said:

What is A WRINKLE IN TIME's budget?

103M USD...

[kayumanggi]

8 minutes ago, fabiopazzo2 said:

103M USD...

Thanks. I don't know how overseas markets will respond to this, but I think 250 M worldwide is a good target. That is not a good number, though.