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Weekend Thread: Weekend estimates pg 38...BP 41.14....WIT 33.31

By Alli, in Numbers and Data

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eddyxx Summer Tentpole

eddyxx

Posted
Posted
30 minutes ago, Cookson said:

If Gnomes makes more than PRU :gold:

PRU director gonna have a meltdown on Twitter. :hahaha:

Steven Deknight is a good guy. I wish he didn't sign on this shit show:whosad: He was one of the best writers on Buffy and Angel and often wrote some of the darkest episodes.

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Zakiyyah6 Blockbuster

Zakiyyah6

Posted
Posted (edited)

I wonder how many mediocre 100+mil Disney family movies that only open with 33mil will get a Time Magazine cover? You can't shame people into seeing a mediocre looking Disney movie for diversity sake. The media has been really hard on Ready Player One, I am going to laugh so hard if it demolishes A Wrinkle in Time review and box office wise.

Edited by Zakiyyah6
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Nova Global Phenomenon

Nova

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, TwoMisfits said:

Yes...(and I'm not Tele:)...it was one of the 2 movies I thought could have a sub 2.0x this year (although opening weekend will be enormous:)...

I don't know if it'll have a sub 2.0 but I'm actually curious as to how the legs will be because you really needed to be invested in all the movies to go out and watch it but I've also talked to quite a few people who stopped watching the Marvel movies ask me which Marvel films they have to watch in order to understand IW. So I do wonder if it'll have similar legs to CW or if people will come out to watch it because it's a film everyone will be talking about (Like BP, the first avengers, TFA, Avatar etc) 

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a2k Global Phenomenon

a2k

Posted
Posted
19 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

BP starting to pull significantly ahead of JW now. $6m ahead through the same point with a $12m bigger weekend. 675+ should happen. Also, the 4th weekend hold was better than Wonder Woman's.

:ohmygod:

wondy had summer weekdays stealing dough though. deadpool's legs from now on take panther above 685 with ease and it's been doing better. deadpool's final multiplier off fss was 2.74x while panther will be close to 3x next weekend! i think 685-715 dom is happening.

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dudalb Global Phenomenon

dudalb

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, Zakiyyah6 said:

I wonder how many mediocre 100+mil Disney family movies that only open with 33mil will get a Time Magazine cover? You can't shame people into seeing a mediocre looking Disney movie for diversity sake. The media has been really hard on Ready Player One, I am going to laugh so hard if it demolishes A Wrinkle in Time review and box office wise.

Time Magazine thought is was going to be on top of The Next Big Thing;did not turn out that way.

 

 

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WrathOfHan Cinematic Universe

WrathOfHan

Posted
Posted

Panther forecast:

 

Remainder of this week: 12.8M (574.8M Total)

Mar 16: 26.5M (7.6M weekdays, 608.9M Total)

Mar 23: 15.1M (4.6M weekdays, 628.6M Total)

Mar 30: 8.1M (2.5M weekdays, 639.2M Total)

Apr 6: 4.6M (1.2M weekdays, 645M Total)

Apr 13: 2.2M (600k weekdays, 647.8M Total)

Apr 20: 1.4M (300k weekdays, 649.5M Total)

Apr 27: 700k (200k weekdays, 650.4M Total)

Final Total: 654M (3.24x)

 

Thinking this will land between JW and Titanic right now. The TC hold on April 13 is not going to be pretty, and A Quiet Place and Blockers will combine to at least 50M (potentially 60+) the preceding weekend.

 

WIT:

 

Remainder of this week: 5.8M (39.1M Total)

Mar 16: 14.5M (3M weekdays, 56.6M Total)

Mar 23: 8.8M (1.6M weekdays, 67M Total)

Mar 30: 4.4M (800k weekdays, 72.5M Total)

Apr 6: 1.8M (300k weekdays, 74.6M Total)

Final Total: 77M (2.31x)

 

Going to go a little bold on this one. I legit can't remember the last time a family movie got a B Cinemascore (Tomorrowland?), so WOM is bad out of the gate. It's already facing competition in the family market from Black Panther and Peter Rabbit, and Sherlock Gnomes will just make things worse in two weeks. Furthermore, as theaters need stuff to drop on the 30th and 6th, this will be one of their main targets. On the 6th excluding new releases, there will be at least six movies ahead of it (RPO/Acrimony/Panther/Gnomes/Simon/Tomb Raider) with the potential for two more (Pacific Rim/Paul).

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MovieMan89 Global Phenomenon

MovieMan89

Posted
Posted (edited)
6 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

Panther forecast:

 

Remainder of this week: 12.8M (574.8M Total)

Mar 16: 26.5M (7.6M weekdays, 608.9M Total)

Mar 23: 15.1M (4.6M weekdays, 628.6M Total)

Mar 30: 8.1M (2.5M weekdays, 639.2M Total)

Apr 6: 4.6M (1.2M weekdays, 645M Total)

Apr 13: 2.2M (600k weekdays, 647.8M Total)

Apr 20: 1.4M (300k weekdays, 649.5M Total)

Apr 27: 700k (200k weekdays, 650.4M Total)

Final Total: 654M (3.24x)

 

Thinking this will land between JW and Titanic right now. The TC hold on April 13 is not going to be pretty, and A Quiet Place and Blockers will combine to at least 50M (potentially 60+) the preceding weekend.

 

WIT:

 

Remainder of this week: 5.8M (39.1M Total)

Mar 16: 14.5M (3M weekdays, 56.6M Total)

Mar 23: 8.8M (1.6M weekdays, 67M Total)

Mar 30: 4.4M (800k weekdays, 72.5M Total)

Apr 6: 1.8M (300k weekdays, 74.6M Total)

Final Total: 77M (2.31x)

 

Going to go a little bold on this one. I legit can't remember the last time a family movie got a B Cinemascore (Tomorrowland?), so WOM is bad out of the gate. It's already facing competition in the family market from Black Panther and Peter Rabbit, and Sherlock Gnomes will just make things worse in two weeks. Furthermore, as theaters need stuff to drop on the 30th and 6th, this will be one of their main targets. On the 6th excluding new releases, there will be at least six movies ahead of it (RPO/Acrimony/Panther/Gnomes/Simon/Tomb Raider) with the potential for two more (Pacific Rim/Paul).

Those weekend holds seem much too harsh for BP with such little competition. It should hold onto its TC very well until at least April 13 like you said, which is still a ways off. Also c'mon now, that WiT multi is ridiculous and you know it. No family film that opened above $10m has ever done anything remotely like that for a multi. 2.7x at worst, which would already be unprecedentedly nasty. 

Edited by MovieMan89
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Zakiyyah6 Blockbuster

Zakiyyah6

Posted
Posted (edited)
31 minutes ago, dudalb said:

Time Magazine thought is was going to be on top of The Next Big Thing;did not turn out that way.

 

 

Did Time Magazine not see the muddled trailers? Did they not see the embarrassing amateur hour hair and make-up on Oprah, Reese and Mindy? The film is lucky it opened with a still weak 33mil. Disney better hope that it has legs and doesn't flop overseas.

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Alli Blockbuster

Alli

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Posted
Just now, Zakiyyah6 said:

Did Time Magazine not see the muddled trailers? Did they not see the embarrassing amateur hour hair and make-up on Oprah, Reese and Mindy?

lol you're mad about that Time magazine thing. don't worry, Time' s not as important as it used to be. nobody reads magazines these days

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MovieMan89 Global Phenomenon

MovieMan89

Posted
Posted

Ok, there is actually a precedent for that 2.3x multi for a family film that opened with at least $10m: Pan. But that did open to less than half of WiT so audiences were rejecting it quite a bit more from the start. Among live action Disney ones, Tomorrowland is the lowest with a 2.81x. 

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